Sunday, November 02, 2008

U.S. House Race Predictions

Here is the complete list of all 435 House races and how I have ranked them-

Runoffs are likely in a few Louisiana districts

Alabama

1. Jo Bonner R- Safe R
2. Open (Terry Everett R)- Tossup-R
3. Mike Rogers R- Safe R
4. Robert Aderholt R- Safe R
5. Open (Bud Cramer D)- Tossup- D
6. Spencer Bachus R- Safe R
7. Artur Davis D- Safe D

Alaska

1. Don Young R- Tossup- D

Arizona

1. Open (Rick Renzi R)- Leans D
2. Trent Franks R- Likely R
3. John Shadegg R- Leans R
4. Ed Pastor D- Safe R
5. Harry Mitchell D- Leans D
6. Jeff Flake R- Safe R
7. Raul Grijalva D- Safe D
8. Gabrielle Giffords D- Leans D

Arkansas

1. Marion Berry D- Safe D
2. Vic Snyder D- Safe D
3. John Boozman R- Safe R
4. Mike Ross D- Safe D

California

1. Mike Thompson D- Safe D
2. Wally Herger R- Safe R
3. Dan Lungren R- Likely R
4. Open (John Doolittle R)- Tossup D
5. Doris Matsui D- Safe D
6. Lynn Woolsey D- Safe D
7. George Miller D- Safe D
8. Nancy Pelosi D- Safe D
9. Barbara Lee D- Safe D
10. Ellen Tauscher D- Safe D
11. Jerry McNerney D- Leans D
12. Jackie Speier D- Safe D
13. Pete Stark D- Safe D
14. Anna Eshoo D- Safe D
15. Mike Honda D- Safe D
16. Zoe Lofgren D- Safe D
17. Sam Farr D- Safe D
18. Dennis Cardonza D- Safe D
19. George Radanonovich R- Safe R
20. Jim Costa D- Safe D
21. Devin Nunes R- Safe R
22. Kevin McCarthy R- Safe R
23. Lois Capps D- Safe D
24. Elton Gallegly R- Safe R
25. Buck McKeon R- Safe R
26. David Dreier R- Likely R
27. Brad Sherman D- Safe D
28. Howard Berman D- Safe D
29. Adam Schiff D- Safe D
30. Henry Waxman D- Safe D
31. Xavier Becerra D- Safe D
32. Hilda Solis D- Safe D
33. Diane Watson D- Safe D
34. Lucille Roybal-Allard D- Safe D
35. Maxine Waters D- Safe D
36. Jane Harman D- Safe D
37. Laura Richardson D- Safe D
38. Grace Napolitano D- Safe D
39. Linda Sanchez D- Safe D
40. Ed Royce R- Safe R
41. Jerry Lewis R- Likely R
42. Gary Miller R- Safe R
43. Joe Baca D- Safe D
44. Ken Calvert R- Safe R
45.Mary Bono Mack R- Likely R
46. Dana Rohrabacher R- Likely R
47. Loretta Sanchez D- Likely D
48. John Campbell R- Safe R
49. Darrell Issa R- Safe R
50. Brian Bilbray R- Leans R
51. Bob Filner D- Safe D
52. Open (Duncan Hunter R)- Safe R
53. Susan Davis D- Safe D

Colorado

1. Diana DeGette D- Safe D
2. Open (Mark Udall D)- Safe D
3. John Salazar D- Likely D
4. Marilyn Musgrave R- Leans D
5. Doug Lamborn R- Likely R
6. Open (Tom Tancredo R)- Safe R
7. Ed Perlmutter D- Safe D

Connecticut

1. John Larson D- Safe D
2. Joe Courtney D- Likely D
3. Rosa DeLauro D- Safe D
4. Chris Shays R- Tossup- R
5. Chris Murphy D- Likely D

Delaware

1. Mike Castle R- Likely R

Florida

1. Jeff Miller R- Safe R
2. Allen Boyd D- Likely D
3. Corrine Brown D- Safe D
4. Ander Crenshaw R- Safe R
5. Ginny Brown- Waite R- Likely R
6. Cliff Stearns R- Safe R
7. John Mica R- Safe R
8. Ric Keller D- Tossup- D
9. Gus Bilirakis R- Likely R
10. Bill Young R- Likely R
11. Kathy Castor D- Safe D
12. Adam Putnam R- Safe R
13. Vern Buchanan R- Leans R
14. Connie Mack IV R- Likely R
15. Open (Dave Weldon R)- Safe R
16. Tim Mahoney D- Likely R
17. Kendrick Meek D- Safe D
18. Ileans Ros-Lehtinen R- Leans R
19. Robert Wexler D- Safe D
20. Debbie Wasserman Schultz D- Safe D
21. Lincoln Diaz-Balart R- Leans R
22. Ron Klein D- Likely D
23. Alcee Hastings D- Safe D
24. Tom Feeney R- Leans D
25. Mario Diaz-Balart R- Leans R

Georgia

1. Jack Kingston R- Safe R
2. Sanford Bishop D- Safe D
3. Lynn Westmoreland R- Safe R
4. Hank Johnson D- Safe D
5. John Lewis D- Safe D
6. Tom Price R- Safe R
7. John Linder R- Safe R
8. Jim Marshall D- Leans D
9. Nathan Deal R- Safe R
10. Paul Broun R- Likely R
11. Phil Gingrey R- Safe R
12. John Barrow D- Likely D
13. David Scott D- Safe D

Hawai’i

1. Neil Abercrombie D- Safe D
2. Mazie Hirono D- Safe D

Idaho

1. Bill Sali R- Tossup-R
2. Mike Simpson R- Safe R

Illinois

1. Bobby Rush D- Safe D
2. Jesse Jackson Jr. D- Safe D
3. Dan Lipinksi D- Safe D
4. Luis Gutierrez D- Safe D
5. Rahm Emmanuel D- Safe D
6. Peter Roskam R- Likely R
7. Danny Davis D- Safe D
8. Melissa Bean D- Likely D
9. Jan Schakowsky D- Safe D
10. Mark Kirk R- Leans R
11. Open (Jerry Weller R) Leans D
12. Jerry Costello D- Safe D
13. Judy Biggert R- Likely R
14. Bill Foster D- Likely D
15. Tim Johnson R- Safe R
16. Don Manzullo R- Safe R
17. Phil Hare D- Safe D
18. Open (Ray LaHood R)- Likely R
19. John Shimkus R- Safe R

Indiana

1. Pete Visclosky D- Safe D
2. Joe Donnelly D- Likely D
3. Mark Souder R- Leans R
4. Steve Buyer R- Safe R
5. Dan Burton R- Safe R
6. Mike Pence R- Safe R
7. Andre Carson D- Safe D
8. Brad Ellsworth D- Likely D
9. Baron Hill D- Likely D

Iowa

1. Bruce Braley D- Likely D
2. Dave Loebsack D- Likely D
3. Leonard Boswell D- Likely D
4. Tom Latham R- Likely R
5. Steve King R- Safe R

Kansas

1. Jerry Moran R- Safe R
2. Nancy Boyda D- Tossup- R
3. Dennis Moore D- Likely D
4. Todd Tiahrt R- Safe R

Kentucky

1. Ed Whitfield R- Safe R
2. Open (Ron Lewis R)- Leans R
3. John Yarmuth D- Likely D
4. Geoff Davis R- Safe R
5. Hal Rogers R- Safe R
6. Ben Chandler III- D- Safe D

Louisiana

1. Steve Scalise R- Likely R
2. Bill Jefferson D- Safe D
3. Charlie Melancon D- Safe D
4. Open (Jim McCrery R)- Leans R
5. Rodney Alexander R- Safe R
6. Don Cazayoux D- Tossup- D
7. Charles Boustany R- Likely R

Maine

1. Open (Tom Allen D)- Likely D
2. Mike Michaud D- Safe D

Maryland

1. Open (Wayne Gilchrest R)- Leans R
2. Dutch Ruppersberger D- Safe D
3. John Sarbanes D- Safe D
4. Donna Edwards D- Safe D
5. Steny Hoyer D- Safe D
6. Roscoe Bartlett R- Likely R
7. Elijah Cummings D- Safe D
8. Chris Van Hollen D- Safe D

Massachusetts

1. John Olver D- Safe D
2. Richard Neal D- Safe D
3. Jim McGovern D- Safe D
4. Barney Frank D- Safe D
5. Niki Tsongas D- Safe D
6. John Tierney D- Safe D
7. Ed Markey D- Safe D
8. Mike Capuano D- Safe D
9. Stephen Lynch D- Safe D
10. Bill Delahunt D- Safe D

Michigan

1. Bart Stupak D- Likely D
2. Pete Hoekstra R- Safe R
3. Vern Ehlers R- Safe R
4. Dave Camp R- Safe R
5. Dale Kildee D- Safe D
6. Fred Upton R- Safe R
7. Tim Walberg R- Leans D
8. Mike Rogers R- Safe R
9. Joe Knollenberg R- Tossup-D
10. Candice Miller- Safe R
11. Thad McCotter- Safe R
12. Sander Levin- Safe D
13. Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick D- Safe D
14. John Conyers D- Safe D
15. John Dingell D- Safe D


Minnesota

1. Tim Walz D- Leans D
2. John Kline R- Likely R
3. Open (Jim Ramstad R)- Tossup- D
4. Betty McCollum D- Safe D
5. Keith Ellison D- Safe D
6. Michele Bachmann R- Tossup-R
7. Collin Peterson D- Safe D
8. Jim Oberstar D- Safe D

Mississippi

1. Travis Childers D- Likely D
2. Bennie Thompson D- Safe D
3. Open (Chip Pickering R)- Likely R
4. Gene Taylor D- Safe D

Missouri

1. Lacy Clay D- Safe D
2. Todd Akin R- Safe R
3. Russ Carnahan D- Safe D
4. Ike Skelton D- Safe D
5. Emanuel Cleaver D- Safe D
6. Sam Graves R- Leans R
7. Roy Blunt R- Safe R
8. Jo Ann Emerson R- Safe R
9. Open (Kenny Hulshof R)- Leans R

Montana

1. Denny Rehberg R- Safe R

Nebraska

1. Jeff Fortenberry R- Likely R
2. Lee Terry R- Leans R
3. Adrian Smith R- Safe R

Nevada

1. Shelley Berkley D- Safe D
2. Dean Heller R- Leans R
3. Jon Porter R- Tossup-R

New Hampshire

1. Carol Shea-Porter D- Tossup-R
2. Paul Hodes-D- Leans D

New Jersey

1. Rob Andrews D- Safe D
2. Frank LoBindo R- Likely R
3. Open (Jim Saxton R)- Tossup-D
4. Chris Smith R- Safe R
5. Scott Garrett R- Likely R
6. Frank Pallone D- Safe D
7. Open (Mike Ferguson R)- Tossup-D
8. Bill Pascrell D- Safe D
9. Steve Rothman D- Safe D
10. Don Payne D- Safe D
11. Rodney Frelinghuysen R- Safe R
12. Rush Holt D- Safe D
13. Albio Sires D- Safe D

New Mexico

1. Open (Heather Wilson R)- Tossup-D
2. Open (Steve Pearce R)- Tossup-D
3. Open (Tom Udall D)- Safe D

New York

1. Tim Bishop D- Likely D
2. Steve Israel D- Safe D
3. Peter King R- Likely R
4. Carolyn McCarthy D- Likely D
5. Gary Ackerman D- Safe D
6. Gregory Meeks D- Safe D
7. Joe Crowley D- Safe D
8. Jerry Nadler D- Safe D
9. Anthony Weiner D- Safe D
10. Ed Towns D- Safe D
11. Yvette Clark D- Safe D
12. Nydia Velazquez D- Safe D
13. Open (Vito Fossella R)- Likely D
14. Carolyn Maloney D- Safe D
15. Charlie Rangel D- Safe D
16. Jose Serrano D- Safe D
17. Eliot Engel D- Safe D
18. Nita Lowey D- Safe D
19. John Hall D- Likely D
20. Kirsten Gillibrand D- Leans D
21. Open (Mike McNulty D)- Likely D
22. Maurice Hinchey D- Safe D
23. John McHugh R- Likely R
24. Mike Archuri D- Likely D
25. Open (Jim Walsh R)- Likely D
26. Open (Tom Reynolds R) Leans R
27. Brian Higgins D- Safe D
28. Louise Slaughter D- Safe D
29. Randy Kuhl R- Tossup-R

North Carolina

1. G.K. Butterfield D- Safe D
2. Bob Etheridge D- Safe D
3. Walter Jones Jr. R- Safe R
4. David Price D- Safe D
5. Virginia Foxx R- Likely R
6 .Howard Coble R- Safe R
7. Mike McIntyre D- Likely D
8. Robin Hayes R- Tossup- D
9. Sue Myrick R- Safe R
10. Patrick McHenry R- Likely R
11. Heath Shuler D- Likely D
12. Mel Watt D- Safe D
13. Brad Miller D- Likely D

North Dakota

1. Earl Pomeroy D- Likely D

Ohio

1. Steve Chabot R- Tossup- R
2. Jean Schmidt R- Leans R
3. Mike Turner R- Safe R
4. Jim Jordan R- Safe R
5. Bob Latta R- Safe R
6. Charlie Wilson D- Safe D
7. Open (Dave Hobson R)- Likely R
8. John Boehner R- Safe R
9. Marcy Kaptur D- Safe D
10. Dennis Kucinich D- Safe D
11. Open (Stephanie Tubbs Jones D)- Safe D
12. Pat Tiberi R- Safe R
13. Betty Sutton D- Safe D
14. Steve LaTourette R- Leans R
15. Open (Deborah Pryce R)- Tossup-D
16. Open (Ralph Regula R)- Tossup-D
17. Tim Ryan D- Safe D
18. Zack Space D- Likely D

Oklahoma

1. John Sullivan R- Safe R
2. Dan Boren D- Safe D
3. Frank Lucas R- Safe R
4. Tom Cole R- Safe R
5. Mary Fallin R- Safe R

Oregon

1. David Wu D- Safe D
2. Greg Walden R- Safe R
3. Earl Blumenauer D- Safe D
4. Peter DeFazio D- Safe D
5. Open (Darlene Hooley D)- Likely D

Pennsylvania

1. Bob Brady D- Safe D
2. Chaka Fattah D- Safe D
3. Phil English R- Leans D
4. Jason Altmire D- Likely D
5. Open (John Peterson R)- Safe R
6. Jim Gerlach R- Likely R
7. Joe Sestak D- Likely D
8. Patrick Murphy D- Leans D
9. Bill Shuster R- Safe R
10. Chris Carney D- Tossup-D
11. Paul Kanjorski D- Tossup-R
12. John Murtha D- Tossup-D
13. Allyson Schwartz D- Safe D
14. Mike Doyle D- Safe D
15. Charlie Dent R- Likely R
16. Joe Pitts R- Safe R
17. Tim Holden D- Safe D
18. Tim Murphy R- Likely R
19. Todd Platts R- Safe R

Rhode Island

1. Patrick Kennedy D- Safe D
2. Jim Langevin D- Safe D

South Carolina

1. Henry Brown R- Likely R
2. Joe Wilson R- Safe R
3. Gresham Barrett R- Safe R
4. Bob Inglis R- Safe R
5. John Spratt D- Safe D
6. Jim Clyburn D- Safe D

South Dakota

1. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin D- Likely D

Tennessee

1. Open (David Davis R)- Safe R
2. Jimmy Duncan R- Safe R
3. Zach Wamp R- Safe R
4. Lincoln Davis D- Safe D
5. Jim Cooper D- Safe D
6. Bart Gordon D- Safe D
7. Marsha Blackburn R- Safe R
8. John Tanner D- Safe D
9. Steve Cohen D- Safe D

Texas

1. Louie Gomhert R- Safe R
2. Ted Poe R- Safe R
3. Sam Johnson R- Safe R
4. Ralph Hall R- Safe R
5. Jeb Hensarling R- Safe R
6. Joe Barton R- Safe R
7. John Culberson R- Likely R
8. Kevin Brady R- Safe R
9. Al Green D- Safe D
10. Mike McCaul R- Likely R
11. Mike Conaway R- Safe R
12. Kay Granger R- Safe R
13. Mac Thornberry R- Safe R
14. Ron Paul R- Safe R
15. Ruben Hinojosa D- Safe D
16. Silvestre Reyes D- Safe D
17. Chet Edwards D- Likely D
18. Sheila Jackson-Lee D- Safe D
19. Randy Neugebauer R- Safe R
20. Charlie Gonzalez D- Safe D
21. Lamar Smith R- Safe R
22. Nick Lampson D- Leans R
23. Ciro Rodriguez D- Likely D
24. Kenny Marchant R- Safe R
25. Lloyd Doggett- D- Safe D
26. Michael Burgess R- Safe R
27. Solomon Ortiz D- Safe D
28. Henry Cuellar D- Safe D
29. Gene Green D- Safe D
30. Eddie Bernie Johnson D- Safe D
31. John Carter R- Safe R
32. Pete Sessions R- Safe R

Utah

1. Rob Bishop R- Safe R
2. Jim Matheson D- Likely D
3. Open (Chris Cannon R)- Safe R

Vermont

1. Peter Welch D- Safe D

Virginia

1. Rob Wittman R- Safe R
2. Thelma Drake R- Leans R
3. Bobby Scott D- Safe D
4. Randy Forbes R- Safe R
5. Virgil Goode R- Likely R
6. Bob Goodlatte R- Safe R
7. Eric Cantor R- Safe R
8. Jim Moran D- Likely D
9. Rick Boucher D- Safe D
10. Frank Wolf R- Likely R
11. Open (Tom Davis R)- Likely D

Washington

1. Jay Inslee D- Likely D
2. Rick Larsen D- Likely D
3. Brian Baird D- Safe D
4. Doc Hastings R- Safe R
5. Cathy McMorris Rodgers R- Safe R
6. Norm Dicks D- Safe D
7. Jim McDermott D- Safe D
8. Dave Reichert- Tossup-R
9. Adam Smith D- Safe D


West Virginia

1. Alan Mollohan D- Safe D
2. Shelley Moore Capito R- Likely R
3. Nick Rahall D- Safe D

Wisconsin

1. Paul Ryan R- Safe R
2. Tammy Baldwin D- Safe D
3. Ron Kind D- Safe D
4. Gwen Moore D- Safe D
5. Jim Sensenbrenner R- Safe R
6. Tom Petri R- Safe R
7. David Obey D- Safe D
8. Steve Kagen D- Tossup- D

Wyoming

1. Open (Barbara Cubin R)- Tossup-R


Predicted Total:

250 Democrats
185 Republicans

14 seat net gain for Democrats

Now, I realize that conventional wisdom holds that Democrats will gain more than 14 seats this year, and that will probably even be the case, but I wanted to predict each individual race and that is the figure I came up with.

So, after all this is settled, I will be able to see how close I am both on the turnover total and on the total number of individual races.

Final Governor and U.S. Senate Predictions

Governors:

28 Democrats
22 Republicans

No net change

U.S. Senate:

runoff election possible in Georgia

changes from 10/19

Alaska- Likely Democrat (change from Tossup (R)
North Carolina- Tossup (D)- (change from Tossup (R)... really, really, hope I am wrong here

Predicted Senate total:

58 Democrats (including Sanders and Lieberman)
42 Republicans

Net gain of 7 for Democrats

Again, the Lieberman seat in Connecticut is likely to move from being associated with the Democrats on Capitol Hill to being associated with the Republicans, but that cannot be automatically assumed at this time.