Iowa U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

 77 Days Until Election Day

Iowa U.S. Senate

 

Status: Republican Open

2024 Presidential Result: Red State (Midwest)

 

Outlook: Tossup (R)

 

Democrats might have nominated some unnecessarily risky candidates for Senate in other states this year, which will impact their chances of victory, but they seemed to have made the shrewdest primary decision this June in Iowa. Right now, there is not any polling data that justifies me saying that their nominee will win in heavily Republican Iowa, but the race definitely looks like a Tossup. Yesterday, I discussed the Gubernatorial race which I have forecast as a Tossup lean to the Democrat. Can the same thing happen in a federal election? While there is always the possibility of ticket splitters, I think it will eventually be most likely that the same party will win both races. Thus, I may change my prediction in this one or the Governor race. The bottom line though is that that it speaks volumes that Democrats are as much in the game in 2026 as they clearly are in a state that once looked solid for Republicans. To think, all the Democrats who plan to run for President starting next year, really have no strategic reason to make a lot of trips to Iowa. Talk about a missed opportunity for the party, but at the same time, perhaps a blessing for this year's nominees.

 

The Gubernatorial race changed when Iowa's female Republican Governor somewhat surprisingly decided not to seek another term. A very similar thing is happening in this race. Republican Joni Ernst, Iowa's first female Senator is not seeking a third term. She was a bit of an upset winner in 2014, and fended off a tough challenge to win a second term in 2020, but she had come to be considered a rising political star in the Republican Party, even as she dealt with a messy divorce and revealed some personally difficult stories about her life as a young woman and what later on happened in her marriage.

 

There was a sense that Ernst could probably win another term but she started to be face cross pressures as Donald Trump returned to the White House. A military veteran herself, she appeared somewhat opposed to Pete Hegseth's nomination as Defense Secretary, citing some things he had said about women in the military, but she ultimately voted to confirm him and all of Trump's other picks. MAGA supporters were leery of Ernst and she certainly did not have many friends left in the state among Democrats. At a contentious 2025 town hall meeting in her state, a constituent claimed that Trump budget policies would cause people to die. The Senator responded, "Well, we are all going to die."  That set in motion the end of Ernst's career, at least for now, in elective politics. When he remarks went viral, she made some sort of cringe tongue in cheek video in a cemetery and that seemed to make it worse for her. In September of last year, less than three months after the town hall brouhaha, she announced she would not run again.

 

Immediately, some wondered whether this was good news for bad news for Iowa Republicans. The political decisions Ernst had been making indicated she might have had a tough time winning reelection but incumbency is typically a big deal. With the seat open, another female Republican entered the race, and would receive Donald Trump's endorsement. Congresswoman Ashley Hinson, a telegenic blonde former local television news anchor now aged 43 won a high profile race for the U.S. House over a Democrat incumbent in 2020. She won by increasing margins in the next two general elections and all three victories were against female opponents. Trump's endorsement of Hinson largely cleared the field, but former State Senator Jim Carlin, a staunch conservative, who had challenged Iowa's longtime incumbent Chuck Grassley in the 2022 primary, stayed in the race. This was another blow-out loss for Carlin, as Hinson beat him 74-26. Iowa Republicans had made their choice clear, but Carlin has not endorsed his former opponent, saying she did not have the appropriate values and he urged Republicans to not vote for her in November. It remains to be seen if people will listen to that, but even if a small number of Republicans do, it could be quite costly to Hinson.

 

For a time, Democrats had a wider field, but it would also winnow down by the time of the primary. It is worth nothing that the one prominent elected Democrat in the state, Auditor Rob Sand was already running for Governor. The one female Senate candidate for Iowa Democrats had to drop out after she was engulfed in controversy regarding how as a School Board Chair, she had hired someone to be the Superintendent who wound up being an illegal immigrant.

 

The two men who faced off for the nomination were 47 and 34. The older man would win, but Iowa politics is definitely taking a turn for the younger. While Senator Grassley, the current President Pro Tem of the Senate is 92 years old, all four major party nominees for Governor and U.S. Senate are in their 40s. 

 

In reality, there was not much of a policy difference between Democrats Zach Wahls and Josh Turek, but they seemed to have different messaging and different kinds of endorsements. Wahls, a State Senator who had did a stint as Minority Leader, was backed by Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren and other progressive voices from Iowa and beyond. Turek, a State Representative also had liberal support, such as Tom Harkin, the last Iowa Democrat to be a Senator, but was also the choice of Chuck Schumer and the DSCC, who viewed him as more electable. For one thing, Turek has an interesting life story. Born with spina bifida, he has used a wheelchair since he was a child and went on to a prominent career as a wheelchair basketball player and represented the United States on four Paralympic national teams, as well as winning many medals as a player in international events.

 

Wahls tried to make an issue out of the unpopular among the left Schumer and Turek's establishment support. Despite the clear backing from the New York Senator, Turek has not pledged publicly to support him as party leader. Going into the June primary, polls showed a lot of undecided voters and it was believed to be possible that either candidate could win. However, the result produced was a surprising 63-37 mandate for Turek. Obviously, the candidate and his team knew what they were doing and got out their vote. This result, especially being as decisive as it was, should be considered good news for Democrats in their general election hopes.

 

The polls right now show a very close race between Hinson and Turek. Both nominees won by wider margins than expected in their primaries based on the polls. This will be an expensive race determined by national issues. Can Democrats tie a young mother to Trump and "extremist" politics? Can Republicans portray a man in a wheelchair as a dangerous radical? In a very close race, could the Libertarian nominee play spoiler?

 

There is no doubt that Iowa has become a red state filled with the sort of voters who have been most prone to supporting Trump (including many former Obama voters.) All indications though are that Trump is nowhere near as popular as he was in 2024 and a lot of his voters, including farmers, may be quiet upset about agricultural tariffs and the prices of gas and fuel with all that has transpired in Iran, that they likely were never expecting.

 

This contest is pretty much for the taking of a Democrat pick-up. I think it will probably go blue before a couple of the other states that have been getting more attention. In mid August though, I cannot quite yet say that a Republican will lose. Conventional wisdom has to right now give the slightest of edges to Hinson. After the Iowa debates though and the projection of national trends, who knows? Stay tuned.

 

Senate races predicted thus far: 

5 D (2 Safe, 1 Likely, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup)

5 R (2 Safe, 1 Likely, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup)

 

Senate total predicted thus far:

39 D (34 holdover, 2 Safe, 1 Likely, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup) 

36 R (31 holdover, 2 Safe, 1 Likely, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup)