Ohio U.S. Senate- Race of the Day
49 Days Until Election Day
There is much to cover regarding this contest and I probably will miss some details. I also consider this one of the harder races to classify, as I believe the race is currently a Tossup but ultimately, could be decided either way by five points. The conventional wisdom is that Democrats have nominated perhaps the best possible candidate to win statewide other than Sherrod Brown, who holds Ohio's other Senate seat, and Republicans have picked perhaps the weakest possible option of the several candidates who ran. Both nominees are seen as running flawed campaigns and both seem hampered by associations with the most recent President of their party. In 2004, Ohio was the ultimate battleground state on the Presidential scene. It then went twice for Barack Obama then switched hard to Donald Trump in 2016. Democrats hoped they could flip it back in 2020 and while they were able win back other states, Trump's solid margin in the Buckeye State held. This leads many, especially those who continue to like Trump, to believe this race is out of reach for Democrats.
Republican Senator Rob Portman is retiring after two terms. In 2010, he won an open seat with 57 percent and in 2016, he won reelection with 58 percent, running well ahead of Donald Trump's winning margin, as the Senator ran a very different styled campaign from the Presidential nominee. Had Portman run for reelection, he probably would not have had much to worry about in regards to a general election but might have had to endure a primary. Though conservative on most issues, Portman, who was very close to the Bush Family throughout his political ascent is the kind of Republican who is far less en vogue these days among the party's base. He is seen as too willing to compromise with Democrats and not a vocal fighter for right-wing causes. Relatively young for a Senator in his mid 60s, Portman has cited the difficulty of the Senate functioning as part of the reason he wants out. He disappointed some by voting to acquit Trump in the second Impeachment trial, even after announcing his decision, but did speak somewhat critically of Trump in regards to both impeachments.
Portman's exit was sure to complicate matters for Republicans wanting to hold the seat but it also emboldened Congressman Tim Ryan to enter the race. The Democrat had been talked about as a potential statewide candidate for what seemed like many cycles, but this is his first time running statewide. Of course, Ryan did briefly run nationally when he became one of the many Democrats to seek his party's 2020 Presidential nomination. Still in his 40s, and with a record of appealing to blue collar voters, he tried to present himself as an alternative to the kind of voters who were drawn to Joe Biden. The swing in Ryan's Youngstown area district from Obama voters to Trump voters is pretty remarkable and symbolic of other districts around the country (while many upscale suburban districts of course moved in the opposite way.) Ryan was able to comfortably win reelection, even as his margin fell to 53 percent in 2020. That came after Ryan's Presidential bid though which went nowhere during six months in 2019. He was seen as having moved further to the left during his time on the party's debate stage, though still clearly not nearly as far in that direction as some opponents.
A one time High School football star, Ryan saw an injury end his chance to play college ball and he got involved in politics and attended law school. First elected to Congress in 2002, while still in his 20s, Ryan used his connections to organized labor to beat an incumbent Democrat in a primary after district lines had been changed, and then prevailed in the general election despite the presence of convicted and expelled Congressman Jim Traficant, a highly colorful Democrat Ryan had once worked for, running as an Independent from inside prison. Once considered a Pro-Life Democrat on abortion, Ryan started moving to the left as he sought to move up within the House Party Leadership. He maintained his opposition to free trade though as a tenant of his philosophy and in that way was very similar to Sherrod Brown, the Senator who had once represented a similar district in the U.S. House. After the 2016 election, the Congressman challenged Nancy Pelosi for Minority Leader but was defeated within the caucus handily.
In the May primary this year, Ryan defeated two African-American female opponents who claimed they were more true to the progressive agenda. Democrats in the House may not have bought into Ryan's attempt to redefine the party to some extent and his Presidential bid was not successful, but Ohio Democrats saw him as someone, perhaps the only one, who could seriously compete for an open Senate seat. He took 70 percent in the three way primary. While he had taken part in at least one debate, Ryan's opponents tried to get him to engage more, while the frontrunner mostly focused on the general election. Runner-up Morgan Harper, a community organizer, who lost a 2020 House primary to an incumbent Democrat, tried to generate her own publicity by debating one of the Republican candidates for the open seat, and that turned into a a bit of a sidewhow. Harper finished with 18 percent of the primary vote.
Seven Republicans were on the primary ballot and all but one of them went out of their way to appeal to the pro-Trump base. It was a very contentious primary season for the party. One businessman who had been running wound up dropping out in order to not contribute to splitting the MAGA vote. This was after several mainstream Republicans had taken a pass on entering. At one point, Geraldo Rivera, a longtime talkshow host and Fox News contributor, who had apparently moved to Cleveland, suggested he was considering running as a Republican, despite his history as a liberal Democrat. Rivera considered himself a friend of Trump, from New York days and from being on "Celebrity Apprentice" but also would occasionally call out his friend for things such as inciting a insurrection. Rivera did not run though, robbing Ohio of any slight possibility of a Geraldo vs. Jerry Springer (a former Democrat Ohio candidate) talk show host battle.
The initial frontrunner for Republicans had been former State Treasurer Josh Mandel. The Marine veteran who had served in Iraq was once considered one of the biggest rising stars in the party. He perhaps had his eye on higher office too soon though and he lost a competitive Senate race in 2012 to the incumbent Brown. Mandel was just 35 at the time and looked about 10 years younger. He then entered the race against Brown six years later but withdrew citing health issues with his wife. The couple wound wind up divorced a couple years later and Mandel faced headlines during his 2022 run when staffers quit the campaign citing a toxic work environment under a campaign finance director, who was involved romantically with the candidate. Before the most recent primary, a story came out about how former President Trump was somehow fixated on Mandel's sex life and was gossiping about how "weird" he was and how Trump did not like "his look." That may have been the reason Trump did not endorse Mandel, despite the candidate making many attempts to receive the endorsement.
Mandel's transformation from Romney style Republican during his first Senate campaign to Trump acolyte was pretty severe. He clearly made the decision to go all out to appeal to the MAGA base of the primary electorate. He was seen as moving far to the right on cultural issues and echoed Trump's claims of the election being stolen. Furthermore, the Jewish Mandel took to defending white supremacists when they were criticized by figures on the left or by the media. The grandson of refugees from the Holocaust attacked the concept of Afghan refugees resettling in the United States, calling them "alligators" and "terrorists" after the country fell to the Taliban and said that "zero" refugees should be allowed within the United States. I am just surprised that Mandel did not renounce his Judaism and proclaim himself a Christian Nationalist during this campaign.
A couple other candidates ran as staunch Trump supporters but were seen as a bit less nutty during the primary. The one female candidate was Jane Timken, the one time ally and supporter of former Ohio Republican Governor John Kasich. She had helped Trump carry the state twice and attacked Kasich in announcing her candidacy. She received several endorsements as potentially the best equipped to win a general election and many thought she could wind up as the compromise nominee as all the male candidates attacked each other. Also in the field was investment banker Mike Gibbons, who had been the runner up in the 2018 Republican Senate primary. He tried to position himself as the businessman outsider.
While not exactly a Never Trumper, State Senator Matt Dolan took a very different path in the primaries. The candidate, who is a part owner of the Cleveland Guardians (formerly the Indians, with the name change itself probably pissing off many in the base) said that his campaign would focus on Ohio and the future and not on Trump continuing to claim that the 2020 election had been stolen from him, which Dolan rejected. As the GOP primary continued to deteriorate into allegations, negative ads, and name calling (Mandel and the much older and girthier Gibbons nearly got into a physical fight during a televised debate) , Dolan appeared to be surging late and won many newspaper endorsements and support from many in what had been the party establishment. Once considered an also-ran, it was believed a late surge could help the candidate sneak through with a plurality and be positioned as the candidate with the least baggage in the general election. Many thought that outgoing Senator Rob Portman could offer his endorsement to Dolan, but late in the game, Portman instead endorsed Timken.
Finally, there was J.D. Vance, a first time candidate. A Marine Corps veteran, who also served in Iraq, Vance went on to become an attorney and venture capitalist. In 2016, he released his book "Hillbilly Elegy" which told the tale of his difficult childhood and family relationships in Appalachian Ohio. Many called the book a key to understanding how Trump was able to win over so many poor white voters who had not traditionally been friendly to Republicans. Vance started receiving a lot of national attention after the 2016 election and in 2020, his book was adapted into a major motion picture.
Vance's relationship with Trump was far more complicated though. Like many in the party who would come to embrace the figure, Vance had been a vocal Trump critic initially in 2016. On Twitter he called Trump "reprehensible" and said he was part of the "Never Trump" camp and could not vote for him. During the Senate campaign, it came out that Vance had written under an assumed name for a conservative anti-Trump publication. Privately, he had texted a former law school roommate that Trump was like Richard Nixon at best, and Adolph Hitler at worst.
Upon running for office, Vance's views on Trump changed immensely and this caused former publication editors and the Democrat law school roommate to spill the tea on Vance. He seemed to shrug it all off though. The old Tweets critical of Trump had been deleted and early in his campaign, Vance had apologized for having been critical of Trump and said he was wrong in 2016 to have doubted him in any way. Vance took very populist stances on issues and there was little daylight between him and Trump on any matter.
Despite all that. Vance's Senate campaign had been seen as failing and many viewed him as a sheer opportunist. He was running towards the back of the pack in Republican primary polls and some questioned if his campaign could even survive into May. In April, after Vladimir Putin caused Russia to invade Ukraine, Vance said the U.S. should play no role whatsoever in supporting Ukraine, saying it was more important to focus on domestic issues. Many on the right, who were supporting Ukraine were critical of the candidate for this and said it would harm hm politically.
Everything changed though days later, when Trump endorsed J.D. Vance for the Senate seat, a move that surprised many allies. One thing worth considering is that this move would precede the endorsement that Trump later gave Blake Masters in Arizona, also a controversial, young first time candidate running for the United States Senate. With Trump's endorsement, both won the nomination and both were funded in the primary by the SuperPAC, the billionaire businessman, whom both Senate candidates had worked for at a time in California. Clearly, Thiel, a staunch Trump backer in 2016 had a lot of influence into whom the former President would wind up endorsing. What is also interesting is that Thiel, an openly gay married man, supported candidates who ran as very conservative on social issues, and have stated opposition to same sex marriage. Both Vance and Masters have struggled a bit in general election polling and fundraising and it remains a current question as to whether or not Thiel will once again infuse cash into their campaigns. He seems to be reluctant to do so and there is also a lot of consternation in MAGA-land about if Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell, whom Trump now openly states his hatred for, will have his campaign fund aid the campaigns of the two nominees. Both of them had aid they would oppose McConnell continuing as Republican Leader, but in need of cash, Vance has recently backed away from that position somewhat.
Trump endorsing Vance on the heels of a big rally in Ohio immediately made the one-time NeverTrumper the new frontrunner in the race. The poll numbers improved overnight and Vance won the primary, albeit with just 32 percent of the vote. Mandel was second with 24 percent while his almost sparring partner Gibbons was fourth with 12 percent. Finishing in third place was Dolan, the one non-Trumpist, who had surged somewhat but not enough and took 23 percent. In fifth out of seven finishes, was Tiken who won just six percent. Clearly, the endorsement by Portman did no good. Perhaps, it even hurt her with the base. The outgoing Senator should have endorsed Dolan. Those left in the party who remained fans of Portman seemed to have preferred him anyway.
The general election was then set and Tim Ryan was certainly pleased to see J.D. Vance advance out of such a splintered and cantankerous primary. Under normal circumstances, a Republican would be a solid favorite these days in Ohio, but early polls and conventional wisdom had Ryan very much in the game. Democrats in Ohio have huge issues though as a brand and that is still a problem for their nominee. Ryan once was Pro-Life on the issue of abortion, but after the Supreme Court overturned Roe vs. Wade, he went on television and tried to dance around questions as to if he would support any restriction on abortion at any point in a pregnancy. By not answering, it was clear he had either really changed his mind in a way that is at odds with the vast majority of Americans, who do believe in some limits, or was completely beholden to the higher ups in the national party. It was not a good look for Ryan who comes across at times as being less than confident on the campaign trail.
There is also the fact that this is a midterm election for a Democrat President who lost Ohio and who has continued to poll under 50 percent nationally for over a year now. Some in the national media believe Biden has improved his standing, and that might be somewhat true on the margins, but issues like inflation and the overall economy continue to be a top concern of voters. The current President has turned into a divisive figure politically, not just by Trump supporters, but some people (like me) who took a chance and voted for him have been disillusioned by Biden's agenda and at times by his rhetoric. Of course, there is also the issue of him continuing to be a gaffe machine as he has been for generations in political life. Ryan has been put into an uncomfortable position as to whether or not he wants to campaign alongside Biden. Eventually, the nominee appeared at a Presidential event, but that came after Ryan saying Biden should not run for reelection in 2024, saying the party needed to see "generational change." This comes as Vance recently appeared at another Trump rally, seemingly the unofficial merging of MAGA and Q-Anon, in which the former President bragged that Vance is still "kissing my ass" because he needs Trump's support to win. Somewhat along those lines though, the Democrat Ryan has pointed out in the general election that he agreed with the policies of Donald Trump in regards to a protectionist policy on China.
So, there are a lot of factors that should make this a hold for Republicans, but the bottom line is that J.D. Vance has become associated with positions that can make him vulnerable. While running as a staunch conservative on social issues, which do not appeal to voters in the middle, his stances on some economic and national security matters very much differ from post-World War II Republican orthodoxy and are pretty much at odds with the record and political identity of Rob Portman for instance. Most in the party, including the current Senator have offered at least a mild level of support for Vance as the nominee. The move of Ohio politically to the right was more than enough to give the state twice to Trump, against Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden, but can Vance keep enough Trump voters in a Senate race, while likely losing some suburban Republicans and Independents. Ryan may be flawed as a candidate, but he has in the past demonstrated that he can win voters in a legislative election who might gravitate to Trump in a race for the Presidency. It cannot be forgotten that Sherrod Brown, a liberal Democrat to be sure, but someone who is an economic populist still won a Senate election in 2018. Ohio is not exactly Texas. If trends continue though, Ohio may be more Republican than Texas in several years.
The polls are close but the most recent ones show a very slight Vance lead. A week or two ago, I might have called this one as Tossup with a slight advantage for Ryan. The Democrats had a far better summer politically than they had the previous couple of seasons, but as August has turned to September, and economic uncertainty appears to be reasserting itself, there might be signs of a move back to Republicans, consistent with the dynamics of a normal midterm. Republican political observers tend to think that Ohio is so far gone for Democrats, that Vance will still win in spite of himself, and that this should not even be given too much thought. A lot of Democrats, stung by the recent losses in Ohio frankly agree with the assessment and think that this may be one big Senate race that they are unable to win. I think the jury is still out though and momentum could change a few times by November. Right now though, until there is some recent data showing Ryan ahead, a slight edge has to go to Vance.
Frankly, I will be pleased if J.D. Vance loses this election, and I say that as someone who was once a proud Republican, and would like to see the party save itself from Trumpism if at all possible. If Tim Ryan loses, he will have to place much blame on himself and the national party that continues to have not gotten the message of both 2016 and 2020.
Total with predictions thus far:
posted by Corey @ Tuesday, September 20, 2022
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