Democracy 2024: # 10

As March Madness awaits in basketball, Presidential campaign developments continue to unfold, in matters far more interesting to political junkies than the average citizen.

A big and historical headline which seems likely to appear soon is that Donald J. Trump will become the first President to ever be indicted. Of course, he also happens to be an active candidate, and the charges against him may rally people to support him further. That is emblematic of the times we live in. While Trump is under investigation by the U.S. Justice Department for many serious matters as well what could be a criminal charge in Fulton County, Georgia, the first "shoe to drop" formally is likely to be from the Manhattan District Attorney. It will involve "hush money" paid to porn star Stormy Daniels during the 2016 campaign in order to keep her quiet about what some call an affair, but in reality would be best described as a very brief and unsatisfying encounter. Stormy has to have been all sorts of crazy to have wanted to go along with what she has long alleged and in which she was definitely given money to keep quiet about. Some people, and of course I cannot exclude myself, want to see Trump nailed on whatever can stick, but others will look at the nature and seriousness of this particular set of charges and perhaps be more likely to believe the inevitable calls of everything against the former President being nothing more than a "Get Trump Witch Hunt." The law is the law though and nobody is above it.

For the sake of time, brevity, and my own sanity, I am putting aside any intention to write in length about all the talk this week of the January 6 tapes in which Tucker Carlson of Fox News used to tell millions of viewers that the events of that day were really no big deal. Thankfully, many, though not enough, Republican officeholders on Capitol Hill, expressed their dismay at such a transparently ridiculous presentation. I just know how despicable it is that so many people on the right are either totally lost to an alternative universe or the many more will embrace any narrative that allays their shame or guilt over backing Trump. All of this regarding January 6th is likely to be a part of the Republican primary race down the road so I will have no choice but to revisit it.

Last Sunday, I was at least somewhat disappointed to hear that former Maryland Governor Larry Hogan will not seek the Republican Presidential nomination. While this has not seemed to be addressed, it is also possible he has not entirely ruled out an Independent bid. The "No Labels" group has been gaining ballot access in many states and a lot of Democrats are already worrying that such a centrist effort would only hurt their President and help elect a Republican. That can be delved into more detail at another time. I will just say now that perhaps Democrats and the incumbent President should have taken greater steps to live up to the promises made in the 2020 campaign of trying to lead a more united country instead of going so extremely hard to the left. Based on some recent Biden moves illegal immigration and a brouhaha about a measure passed by the District of Columbia City Council seen as "weak on crime", Biden may be starting to inch gingerly to the center.

Getting back to Hogan though, he said he did not want to see a multi-candidate pile up which would only help Donald Trump win the Presidential nomination again. In some ways he has a point, but he would have been the only candidate to have never supported Trump in the past, and thus would have had a particular lane to himself. All of this seems to point to the sad reality for me that many of my fellow conservatives who want an end to Trump's political career feel that throwing their lot in with MAGA acolyte Ron DeSantis will be the only option.

This week, DeSantis made his debut in Iowa and while he has not announced any official plans, he is said to be telling people privately that he is running. Trump continues to attack him online on a daily basis and points to any poll showing him ahead of his now rival. This will be a very interesting battle to watch in the months ahead, but I obviously cannot be in anyway excited as they will fight over which urged people to be less cautious over Covid and who wants to cut aid to Ukraine more.

So, as 2024 approaches for me with no Mitt Romney, no Jeb Bush, no John Kasich, no Larry Hogan, no Adam Kinzinger, and probably no Liz Cheney, am I going to even have a candidate to want to vote for in the GOP primary? I mean there may be John Bolton, Trump's ill-placed former national security advisor that finally had enough and turned against him, but I cannot really see him generating much support. There is talk that Miami Mayor Francis Suarez may enter the Republican field, as a mainstream option, but not many people outside of South Florida will know who might be a the third Florida Man in the race.

There may be New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu, who seems prepared to run as a "let's move on from Trump" candidate, and thus I cannot rule him out, but something about him lately makes him come across to me as a fast talking b.s. artist. Right now, in my mind, the best option down in this second or third tier might be former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson. Then, I might be in position of hoping that Joe Manchin runs as the "No Labels" candidate in November. Beggars cannot be choosers. I just know that my purely anti-Trump checking of a ballot for Joe Biden in 2020 got that out of my system. I cannot envision any scenario, as a voter in safely blue Illinois, where I will do that again. I do approve though of Biden saying he would not veto the Congressional opposition to the D.C. City Council legislation. That has many leftists angry at Biden, who has long stated that he favors D.C. Statehood. Clearly, his approval of a federal government override of a potential D.C. law flies in the face of that logic.

Where are these liberals going to go though? Marianne Williamson? The anti-vax RFK Jr?" Not likely.

I do not expect to write about Robert F. Kennedy Jr.. too much in the weeks and months ahead, but now that he has announced an Exploratory Committee, and seems likely to become a first time candidate for any office,  there are a few things that might as well be mentioned.

Biden said that Bobby Kennedy was his hero growing up. Indeed, he once got in trouble for plagiarizing some of his speeches. I believe he has an RFK bust in the Oval Office. Now, his second oldest son, and namesake, is challenging Biden for the Presidency. That is not something anybody would have ever expected, even a year ago.

A grandson of Joseph P. Kennedy, who wanted to be President himself, but realized the time was not right for a Catholic (and somewhat of a Nazi apologist), then hoped to see his oldest son win the Oval Office. Joe Jr. died in WWII though and JFK took up the mantle and became President. After his tragic demise, Robert Kennedy ran, but was assassinated as a candidate before it was clear if he could become the 1968 nominee of his party. Ted Kennedy had a long career as a Senator but disappointed many when he ran for President in 1980 as a challenger to a vulnerable Democrat incumbent.

Since then, several Kennedys of the next generation and even the one that followed, has sought or held public office, but now RFK Jr. (married to actress Cheryl Hines) is officially going to be the second generation of Kennedys to run for President. He will be considered a joke. Various family members will feel the need to publicly come out against him. His own mother Ethel has suffered so much already and this will be another embarrassment. 

Those hoping for a reincarnation of Camelot are not going to find much solace in a rabid anti-vaxxer. Many of those people though are apparently though convinced that RFK Jr's cousin, JFK Jr., is still alive and any day now will reappear as Donald Trump's running-mate.