Maryland Governor- Race of the Day

 68 Days Until Election Day

Maryland Governor

Status: Republican Open

2020 Presidential Result: Blue State (East)

Outlook: Safe Democrat

There has to be some sort of apt sports analogy to describe what Maryland Republican primary voters did in this race. It was always going to be a challenge for the party to win a third consecutive Gubernatorial election but there as definitely a doable game plan written up to get the ball in the end zone. Instead, the team basically took a knee in order to "send a message."

Maryland is one of the bluest states in the country and has been for a very long time. In spite of that, the term-limited Republican Governor is one of the most popular elected officials in the country among his constituents. Larry Hogan is perhaps a moderate Republican in his approach, but he is certainly no liberal. Now, as he prepares to leave office and see a Democrat replace him. Hogan is openly considering a run for President in the 2024 GOP primaries. Considering the state of the party, a path for Hogan, who is perhaps the only potential Republican candidate who has said he never voted for Donald Trump, looks hard to see. I hope he stays active in politics and perhaps consider the possibility of taking the steps to run in the Presidential general election as an Independent. There are many voters, who look at a sorry situation in both national parties, who would appreciate what he could offer. With both parties at a low ebb, who knows what could happen?

Looking back, it was perhaps the upset of 2014, when Hogan won the Governorship. Few even thought they race would be all that close until the final days. The son of a former Congressman, Hogan had been a businessman, with some experience in politics and government, but his only forays as a candidate were unsuccessful Congressional campaigns, more than a decade apart, years earlier.

Voters had tired of tax increased though under the nationally ambitious outgoing Democrat Governor and his Lt. Governor ran a poor campaign to replace him. Hogan, who did not look or sound like a typical politician, won with 51 percent. Just a few months into his term as Governor, Hogan announced that he had been diagnosed with Stage 3 cancer and would be undergoing treatment. The chemotherapy for non-Hodgkin lymphoma cost him his hair but worked in killing the cancer and his courage in fighting the battle went widely noticed.

As Governor, he clashed at times with the overwhelming Democrat legislature but remained personally popular. Still, many thought Hogan's election had been a fluke and that he would highly vulnerable in 2018. Several Democrats opposed him and one of the leading candidates even died suddenly during the primary campaign. The eventual nominee, who was the second consecutive African-American opponent Hogan would face in the general election, also had a rocky campaign and was seen as too far to the left. Even with the tide against his party in a midterm election in Maryland, Hogan won a second term by double digits and became the first Republican Governor to win reelection in the state since 1954, and only the second ever.

In many ways, especially during his second term, Hogan has been more popular with Maryland Democrats than many in his own party. He has written a book and many frequent appearances on national political shows in which he talks up his record while calmly and without too much rancor, speaks out against the appeal and actions of Donald Trump. This has of course brought about the ire of the now former President, who calls Hogan a "RINO." The troubles between them was especially pointed during the early part of the Covid pandemic. Hogan, whose wife is of South Korean descent, had worked out his own deal with the South Korean government for Covid tests to be supplied to Maryland, as the federal government had been lagging behind. Later though, it would turn out that the tests were flawed and largely unused. Most recently, Hogan reacted to the early news of the search warrant at Mar-a-Lago by saying that the FBI and Justice Department needed to be more transparent about why the action was taken against a former President. It almost seemed as if Hogan was trying to not antagonize primary voters too much, but was of course far more measured than other voices in the party. This year, he turned down entreaties from national Republicans to run for the U.S. Senate in his state. He seems to have other executive ambitions instead that would not be comparable with such a run, whatever the outcome.

It is also true that in 2019,  Hogan was a rare GOP elected official who supported the first impeachment inquiry against Trump and after the 2021 Capitol Hill riot, called for the soon to be ex President to resign or be removed from office. No wonder Trump got involved in the Maryland Gubernatorial primary, against the chosen candidate of Hogan.

An open race in Maryland would favor the Democrats, even as Hogan retained very high job approval numbers. The sitting Lt. Governor, Boyd Rutherford, an African-American, decided not to run for the Republican nomination. The state's one time African-American Lt Governor, Michael Steele, later the RNC Chairman, announced an intention to run for Governor, but never did anything towards that end, choosing instead to remain as an anti-Trump voice on MSNBC.

Kelly Schulz, a former state legislator, resigned as Hogan's Secretary of Commerce to run for Governor, with her boss's blessing. She was widely expected to be the Republican nominee, and while far from a sure bet to win, was seen as someone who could run on Hogan's record and popularity and against the uncertainty of a Democrat returning to the top job in Annapolis, as they were in the midst of an extremely crowded primary.

Schulz would not have the field to herself though. Her chief opponent would be State Delegate Dan Cox, who had also run unsuccessfully for Congress in 2016. A staunch Trump supporter, Cox was seen as someone way too far to the right to have any chance in a general election. He had led futile efforts as a Republican Delegate, to impeach the Governor of his own party. Cox also was present at the January 6 Washington D.C. rally and maintains that the election was stolen from Trump. During the attempted insurrection, he Tweeted that Antifa was behind the violence, and that Vice President Mike Pence was a "traitor." Last November, Trump endorsed Cox but he was still viewed as a primary underdog. As the polls tightened leading up to the July primary, national Democrat groups got involved and spent money on television ads in order to help the lightly funded Cox win the primary. Those Democrats were of course correct that he would be the far easier opponent for their eventual nominee to face, but like other races across the country, it is hard to ignore the hypocrisy of Democrats using money sent to them by their own donors in order to advance the political campaigns and give larger platforms to candidates they say are "dangerous" and "semi-fascist."

Schulz struggled with how to deal with the momentum of Cox, beyond the electability angle, and refused to debate him. She knew that it would be politically costly to have the primary become a referendum on Trump. The fears of the Maryland GOP establishment from Hogan on down were realized when Cox won the primary 52-44. Both MAGA world and Democrats colluded to help bring about that result. Any hopes of Republicans holding the Governorship were pretty much lost then and there. The news was even worse down the ballot when Republicans nominated a former Constitution Party Presidential nominee and fairly open white supremacist as their candidate for Attorney General. Hogan immediately said these candidates could not win the general election and he would not be supporting them, though he also will not endorse their Democrat opponents. The defeated Schulz, who had called Cox "unstable" and "unfit for office" is also not on board. There is certainly not any party unity for Republicans in Maryland.

In the state, candidates for Governor pick their running-mates before the primary and the two are nominated together as a ticket. Cox's choice was Gordana Schifanelli, an attorney and conservative activist. She is definitely not seen as any sort of moderate counterbalance to the Gubernatorial nominee.

On the other side, a slew of Democrats wishing to be Governor emerged, eventually joined by their respective running-mates, almost always balanced for gender and racial diversity. Two white men, who currently hold statewide office did not fare well. Attorney General Doug Gansler, who was considered perhaps the least liberal of the candidates, finished in fifth place with just four percent of the vote. That showing was even behind that of Rushern Baker, an African-American, former Country Executive of Prince George's County. The runner up for the nomination in 2018, he suspended his candidacy in June. The other statewide official was Comptroller Peter Franchot. The one time nominal front-runner finished in third place with 21 percent.

By the final days of the race, it looked like it would come down to a Latino and African-American, both of whom looking to become a Maryland first. Tom Perez had been U.S. Secretary of Labor under Barack Obama, and after the election of Trump, was chosen by the DNC to be their Chairman. He had a bit of a turbulent ride in that position and did not seek to stay on or take a post in the Biden Administration, instead focusing on a run for Governor. Perez received many Maryland and national endorsements in the campaign, especially late in the game.

Non-profit executive Wes Moore is soon to be 44 and has had a varied career. He had been a Rhodes Scholar and served in the Army and overseas in Afghanistan before retiring as a Captain. Moore received some national attention for his first book, released in 2019, "The Other Wes Moore." The accomplished young man contrasted his life with that of another African-American named Wes Moore who was also from Baltimore, but had a far more difficult path and a much different fate that resulted in a life sentence for murder. Oprah Winfrey, who endorsed Moore in the race, signed on to produce a movie based on the book. Critics have alleged that Moore has exaggerated or distorted some aspects of his biography such as the fact that he did not spend much time growing up in Baltimore, but instead lived in the suburbs or the Bronx. Years earlier, after he had just left the military, Moore had described himself as moderate to conservative on issues, but as a candidate, he ran as a staunch progressive.

Moore proved to be a dynamic campaigner and also received his fair share of political endorsements. He chose former State Delegate Aruna Miller, an Indian-American, as his pick for Lt. Governor. Miller, like some others mentioned, also has an unsuccessful Congressional run in her past, having lost a primary in 2018 to a very wealthy self-funder.

In July, the Moore-Miller ticket defeated that of Perez and his running-mate, former Baltimore City Councilwoman Shannon Sneed, an African-American, by a margin of 32-30. It took a couple of days before the results were known and all concessions were given, but the party quickly rose ranks behind the nomination of Wes Moore.

By this time,  it was clear that Moore would be an overwhelming favorite over the MAGA inspired Republican candidacy of Cox. There will be some focus on questions regarding Moore's past and all of his business dealings and the prospects of his enacting policies in a one-party dominated state that would undo much of what the voters have liked about Hogan's time as Governor. It is unlikely though that Cox is going to spend any effort trying to defend the Administration of the Governor he had tried to impeach and who refuses to support him now. Thus, this is not going to be much of a contest at all. It could have potentially been a very competitive race with Schulz facing Moore, but primary results and candidates matter. Without the DGA running ads on his behalf, Cox will be badly lagging in campaign resources, and unlike the situation with a right-wing Gubernatorial nominee in Illinois, there is not a wealthy millionaire who can help fund him.

Clearly, Hogan would have liked to be able to tell the public that Maryland not only elected him twice, but liked him so much that they voted in a protege to succeed him. That is not going to happen now, but the outgoing Governor is still likely to toss the dice on a Presidential campaign, even if he realizes that it is a quixotic effort above all else. One day not too far down the road, I also anticipate that soon to be Governor Wes Moore will be among those in his party talked about as a future President.

Gubernatorial Races predicted thus far:

9 D (1 Safe, 4 Likely. 3 Leans, 1 Tossup) 

7 R (2 Safe, 3 Likely, 2 Leans)

Total with predictions thus far:

15 D (6 Holdovers, 1 Safe, 4 Likely, 3 Leans, 1 Tossup)

15 R (8 Holdovers, 2 Safe, 3 Likely, 2 Leans)