U.S. House Outlook- Volume 5

October 25, 2006
13 Days Until Election Day


Minnesota

2004 Presidential Result: Blue State (Midwest)

1. Gil Gutknecht R (GWB 51%)- Likely R
2. John Kline R (GWB 54%)- Likely R
3. Jim Ramstad R (GWB 51%)- Safe R
4. Betty McCollum D (Kerry 62%)- Safe D
5. Open (Martin Sabo D)- (Kerry 71%)- Likely D
6. Open (Mark Kennedy R)- (GWB 57%)- Tossup (R)
7. Collin Peterson D (GWB 55%)- Safe D
8. James Oberstar D (Kerry 53%)- Likely D

MN Current: 4 D, 4 R
MN Predicted: 4 D, 4 R

Current thus far: 105 D, 116 R
Predicted:
110 D (90 Safe, 8 Likely, 7 Leans, 5 Tossup)
111 R (80 Safe, 20 Likely, 6 Leans, 5 Tossup)
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Mississippi

2004 Presidential Result: Red State (South)

1. Roger Wicker R (GWB 62%)- Safe R
2. Bennie Thompson D (Kerry 58%)- Likely D
3. Chip Pickering R (GWB 65%)- Safe R
4. Gene Taylor D (GWB 68%)- Safe D

MS Current: 2 D, 2 R
MS Predicted: 2 D, 2 R

Current thus far; 107 D, 118 R
Predicted:
112 D (91 Safe, 9 Likely 7 Leans, 5 Tossup)
113 R (82 Safe, 20 Likely, 6 Leans, 5 Tossup)
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Missouri

2004 Presidential Result: Red State (Midwest)

1. Lacy Clay D (Kerry 75%)- Safe D
2. Todd Akin R (GWB 60%)- Safe R
3. Russ Carnahan D (Kerry 57%)- Safe D
4. Ike Skelton D (Kerry 64%)- Safe D
5. Emanuel Cleaver D (Kerry 59%)- Safe D
6. Sam Graves R (GWB 57%)- Safe R
7. Roy Blunt R (GWB 67%)- Safe R
8. Jo Ann Emerson R (GWB 63%)- Safe R
9. Kenny Hulshof R (GWB 59%)- Safe R

MO Current: 4 D, 5 R
MO Predicted: 4 D, 5 R

Current thus far: 111 D, 123 R
Predicted:
116 D (95 Safe, 9 Likely, 7 Leans, 5 Tossup)
118 R (87 Safe, 20 Likely, 6 Leans, 5 Tossup)
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Montana

2004 Presidential Result: Red State (West)

1. Denny Rehberg R (GWB 59%)- Safe R

MT Current: 0 D, 1 R
MT Predicted: 0 D, 1 R

Current thus far: 111 D, 124 R
Predicted:
116 D (95 Safe, 9 Likely, 7 Leans, 5 Tossup)
119 R (88 Safe, 20 Likely, 6 Leans, 5 Tossup)
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Nebraska

2004 Presidential Result: Red State (Midwest)

1. Jeff Fortenberry R (GWB 63%)- Likely R
2. Lee Terry R (GWB 61%)- Likely R
3. Open (Tom Osborne R)- (GWB 75%)- Likely R

NE Current: 0 D, 3 R
NE Predicted: 0 D, 3 R

Current thus far: 111 D, 127 R
Predicted:
116 D (95 Safe, 9 Likely, 7 Leans, 5 Tossup)
122 R (88 Safe, 23 Likely, 6 Leans, 5 Tossup)
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Nevada

2004 Presidential Result: Red State (West)

1. Shelley Berkley D (Kerry 57%)- Safe D
2. Open (Jim Gibbons R)- (GWB 57%)- Leans R
3. Jon Porter (GWB 50%)- Likely R

NV Current: 1 D, 2 R
NV Predicted: 1 D, 2 R

Current thus far: 112 D, 129 R
Predicted:
117 D (96 Safe, 9 Likely, 7 Leans, 5 Tossup)
124 R (88 Safe, 24 Likely, 7 Leans, 5 Tossup)
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New Hampshire

2004 Presidential Result: Blue State (East)

1. Jeb Bradley R (GWB 51%)- Likely R
2. Charles Bass R (Kerry 52%)- Leans R

NH Current: 0 D, 2 R
NH Predicted: 0 D, 2 R

Current thus far: 112 D, 131 R
Predicted:
117 D (96 Safe, 9 Likely, 7 Leans, 5 Tossup)
126 R (88 Safe, 25 Likely, 8 Leans, 5 Tossup)