Thursday, November 01, 2012

Election 2012 Predictions and Preview- Governors

5 Days Until Election Day

It is time to make my potentially final predictions in the races for Governor, unless anything should change between now and Monday. I sort of doubt they will.

Below will be the races I have changed since last posting my predictions on September 24.


MO- Leans D -change from Likely D
NC- Likely R- change from Leans R

Current total:  20 D, 1 I, 29 R

New totals:

17 Democrats (12 Holdover, 3 Safe, 0 Likely, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup)
 1 Independent (1 Holdover)
32 Republicans  (26 Holdover, 2 Safe, 2 Likely, 0 Leans, 2 Tossup)

Republican net gain of 3

While there are not too many Governorships up in this Presidential year, it is clear that the GOP will continue to have the majority. I anticipate they will have at least 30 Governorships with the potential to have as many as 33.

Whatever happens in this year's Presidential, Senate, or Congressional races, many state governments will continue to have significant GOP influence and direction for at least the next two years, largely due to all the Republicans that were elected in the 2010 midterms.

For a matter of background on my Gubernatorial predictions in the last three cycles:

2006: 35-1 (97%)
2008: 10-1 (91%)
2010:  34-3 (92%)