New Jersey U.S. Senate- Race of the Day
New Jersey U.S. Senate
Over the past year, there have been some twists and turns related to this particular Senate seat that could plausibly be a Sopranos spinoff, with a Jersey connection. The corrupt politician it focused on would be Robert Mendendez.
Menendez, a first generation Cuban-American, has been around politics nearly his entire adult life. He spent 14 years in the U.S. House, where he rose to a high position in the leadership of Democrats. In 2006, he got his wish to become a Senator when he was appointed to fill a vacancy. He immediately embarked on a difficult campaign for a full term and won solidly. Two reelections would follow, although the last one, in 2018, was a bit more competitive than could be expected. By this point, Menendez, long the subject of conversations regarding ethical and possible legal problems, had been indicted by the Obama Justice Department, but survived politically when the jury deadlocked on a verdict. He was not re-charged and he won on to continue to be very influential on Capitol Hill. Menendez has always been a solid liberal on domestic issues, but has clashed at times with his fellow Democrats on foreign policy matters, particularly related to Cuba, Iran, and Israel. This has led some Republicans to defend him in some ways with some sort of assertion that the Justice Departments of Democrat Presidents are only interested in going after him because he has crossed them in some way.
Heading into the 2024 cycle, Menendez was a favorite for reelection, although he faced the specter of a credible primary challenge. Just about a year ago, he was indicted again, this time by the Biden Justice Department. on new charges involving having gold bars in his jacket pocket and also basically being a paid agent of the Egyptian government, at the time he was as Chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. The Senator pleaded innocent and also seemed to blame some of the facts of the case on his new wife, who was also indicted. He also claimed that his life experience as the child of Cuban refugees forced him to culturally not trust banks and keep all sorts of cash and gold bars, etc, in his home. There was really a lot to all of this, but Democrats were put in a very awkward spot. He had to stop down from his Committee Chairmanship (as he had to years earlier when he was indicted) but he still had access to classified information, despite being charged as an unlawful foreign agent who accepted bribes. Some Democrats said he should resign immediately. The party leadership was not willing to go that far. Some said he should at least end his reelection campaign. He refused to do that even as it became clear he stood no chance of winning a Jun 2024 primary. At one point, he said he would seek reelection as an Independent, who in theory could draw enough support away from the Democrats' nominee to sway the election. Many Republicans claimed he was being railroaded, along with Hunter Biden, as a smokescreen to avoid accountability for the:"corrupt" Joe Biden.
Last month,. Menendez was convicted on all charges. He was due to be sentenced days before Election Day. At first, he said he would still not resign, and it looked like Democrats might have to vote to expel the convicted felon from the Senate. After all, they do not want to be seen as being on the side of convicted felons this election cycle. Ultimately, Menendez agreed to resign, and has recently left office. Even after that announcement, he finally quietly ended his quixotic effort to seek reelection as an Independent. If anything worked out politically for the Senator, it is the fact that his son, Rob Menendez, a freshman Congressman managed to survive his primary, in the family's heavily Democrat home base. Still, it is hard to see much of a statewide future now for the younger Menendez. The Senator's daughter is an MSNBC anchor, who had to let others report on air about her father's legal saga. Right now, the Senator is still married to the woman he basically threw under the bus, and who has seen her own trial delayed due to a cancer diagnosis. Bob Menendez will be spending a term in federal prison and not the U.S. Senate.
With Menendez resigning, it fell upon lame-duck Democrat Governor Phil Murphy, who won a surprisingly close 2021 reelection to appoint a replacement. He named George Helmy, his former chief of staff and someone probably unknown to at least 98 percent of New Jersey. Helmy, who has yet to take the oath of office would apparently be the country's first Coptic-American U.S. Senator, which is somewhat ironic considering Menendez's ties to Egypt. The soon to be interim Senator is not running in this year's election, so he will be joining an obscure list of people who will have served in the U.S. Senate in recent years, but have never run for any office.
This all happened over a month after the June primary which officially nominated Congressman Andy Kim as the nominee of Democrats. He is heavily favored to win the six year term. Kim, who was elected to the U.S. House in 2018 over a Republican incumbent in a competitive suburban district would become the nation's first Korean-American Senator. Congressman Kim received a lot of positive national coverage when he was seen on January 6, 2021, picking up garbage and debris after the violent incidents in the U.S. Capitol.
Kim announced his Senate candidacy shortly after Menendez was indicted, and still planning to seek reelection as a Democrat. Also joining the race was Tammy Murphy, a financial analyst, co-owner of the state's professional women's' soccer franchise, and the wife of the Governor. Much of the political establishment lined up behind the state's First Lady. Murphy and Kim battled over the various county organization endorsements, which is a big deal in New Jersey politics. Despite her last name and considerable family wealth, Kim seemed to have the edge in the polls over Murphy. In March, she withdrew from the race. At that point, it became clear the nominee would be Kim. Governor Murphy said he would support the entire ticket, but seemed to refuse to specifically endorse Kim, signaling some potential bad blood between the Democrats.
In the primary, Kim took 75 percent in a three person race. His closest opponent, who took 16 percent was labor organizer and liberal activist Patricia Campos-Medina, a Latina immigrant. A Mayor, who received some modest centrist support, also dropped out of the Senate race to run instead for a U.S. House seat, where he lost in the primary. Some thought, it might make sense if Murphy appointed Kim to the Senate, to fill the Menendez vacancy, considering he was already the party's nominee.This was not done, perhaps partly because of bad feelings over Kim having knocked his wife out of the race (perhaps he thought better of appointing her also) and also because New Jersey now already has two vacant House seats, after the recent deaths of Democrat incumbents.
There are also the Republicans to discuss of course. The more promising of the potential candidates took a pass on this race, with some focusing on the following year's open Gubernatorial contest. A large number of little know Republicans did file, but for various reasons withdrew their campaigns. It has been over 50 years since New Jersey last elected a Republican to the Senate.
The four way primary yielded an interesting result however. The winner, with 46 percent was Curtis Bashaw,a wealthy real estate developer from South Jersey. He ran as a moderate Republican, who is also openly gay. While Bashaw had opposed Donald Trump in previous elections, he did say in April, a couple months before the primary, that he would support the former President in 2024. In winning the primary though, he accomplished a rare feat in defeating a candidate who was actually endorsed by Trump, and many other MAGA figures. Receiving 38 percent was Mendham Borough (a small town in the northern part of the state) Mayor Christine Serrano Glassner. Her husband had been a Trump campaign official and she very much played up her ties to Trump and his endorsement. However, in New Jersey, this year, that was not enough. Another conservative candidate took 11 percent and a guy with the last name of Harshaw took five percent, and might have hurt Bashaw due to the confusion factor.
Looking now to the general election, it cannot be denied that Republicans managed to nominate the strongest possible candidate of those who ran. There are moderate voters who will definitely at least be willing to consider Bashaw. That still leaves him a long way towards actually being truly competitive. It certainly would have worked out to the benefit of Republicans if Senator Menendez was on the ballot as an Independent. Even if he were in a prison cell on Election Day, he might still have taken seven or eight percent of the vote.
Right now, the polls show a two way race between Kim and Bashaw that hardly looks like a runaway for the Democrat. However, I find it very hard to envision any Republican, especially one who has stated he will vote for Trump. winning statewide in New Jersey during this highly polarized Presidential election year. A Republican candidate who refused to support Trump would also be boycotted by many so Bashaw is in the situation that he is in. If this were a midterm, perhaps there would be other dynamics at play. Kim hardly comes across as a dynamic campaigner, but he is seen as a likable family man and someone who might be harder to paint as a far-left extremist. I think the polls showing large numbers of undecided voters will eventually reveal most of those people to be Democrats, just coming to terms with the political turmoil in their party in New Jersey, and who will support their nominee at the end.
I also feel like I should point out that the Andy Kim being discussed is not the same person as the Canadian singer who went to the top of the U.S. charts in the 1974 with the horrible song "Rock Me Gently." Before that, the other Andy Kim co-write the also quite bad number one hit "Sugar Sugar" for The Archies If so, that would be true fodder for an attack ad.
posted by Corey @ Monday, August 26, 2024
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