Thursday, October 21, 2010

Complete U.S. Senate Predictions

Below are my revised rankings and predictions for all U.S. Senate contests this year. If I decide to change any, I will include them in a separate post before the election.

Current pre-election U.S. Senate totals: 59 D, 41 R (including Lieberman of CT and Sanders of VT among Democrats, and Murkowski of Alaska among Republicans)

2010 Races:

AL- Safe R
AK- Likely R- change from Safe R
AZ- Safe R- change from Likely R
AR- Likely R
CA- Tossup (D)
CO- Tossup (R)- change from Leans R
CT- Leans D- change from Likely D
DE- Likely D- change from Likely R
FL- Likely R-change from Leans R
GA- Safe R
HI- Safe D
ID- Safe R
IL- Leans R (both General & Special)
IN- Likely R
IA- Safe R
KS- Safe R
KY- Leans R
LA- Likely R
MD- Safe D
MO- Leans R
NV-Tossup (R)- change from Tossup (D)
NH- Leans R
NY A- Safe D
NY B- Likely D
NC- Likely R
ND- Safe R
OH- Likely R
OK- Safe R
OR- Likely D
PA- Leans R
SC- Safe R
SD- Safe R
UT- Safe R
VT- Safe D
WA- Tossup (D)
WV- Tossup (R)
WI- Leans R

New Totals:

50 Democrats (40 Holdover, 4 Safe, 3 Likely, 1 Leans, 2 Tossup)
50 Republicans (23 Holdover, 11 Safe, 7 Likely, 6 Leans, 3 Tossup)

Republican net gain of 9.

Under a 50-50 tie, with no Senator switching conference affiliation, Vice President Joe Biden enables Democrats to keep majority.