White House Race- October 5, 2024

 31 Days Until Election Day

Now, we are just a month away from what so many people say will be the most consequential election in our history. There is so much to write about and I cannot possibly get to everything that is newsworthy.

This week was a very significant one for Jews around the world. It was Rosh Hashanah and the beginning of the High Holidays. Last year (the non-Jewish one), that occasion took place in mid-September. This year, it arrives just about a year to the date of the one year anniversary of the October 7th terrorist attacks in Israel, in what was the deadliest day for Jews since the Holocaust. On this particular Saturday, a year ago, I woke up feeling quite unwell, and then heard about what happened.I had to pretty much avoid watching the news in order to not feel worse, but I recognized that something profound had happened. While I am not a particular actively religious person, the past year has been one of intense emotions, with an even greater realization about what it means to be a Jew and a Jewish-American. Some of the realizations have been difficult, but also has given me a greater sense of identity and pride. While I have not had to directly encounter severe acts of anti-Semitism in my own life, I know they are out there, and the anniversary and the coinciding of Jews in houses of worship this month is concerning. The issue of Israel and the Middle East are playing a big part in this year's American political campaign as Israel makes headlines daily by launching strikes inside Lebanon to target Hezbollah leadership, and then as missiles are fired on Israeli citizens by Iran, all on live television. Miraculously, Israel, with the help of allies, including the United States, has largely been able to protect its own people, but there is not an immediate end of sight to this war. Israel will go after Iran in a severe way, even as cowardly American politicians try to chide them not to. At the same time, one Presidential candidate, who tries to present himself as being completely behind Israel, talks about how the U.S. should make a deal with Iran,and says that if he loses, he will blame it on the Jews.

Moving on to another topic, the Vice Presidential debate happened this week,and it was... well, weird. Ultimately, I do not think it will matter much, as VP debates seemingly never do, but watching it, I was a bit disappointed that it was a missed opportunity for Democrats. I had wished someone with the political skills of Josh Shapiro was on stage instead of the self-professed "knucklehead" Tim Walz in taking on JD Vance directly and prosecuting a case against Donald Trump at each and every possible turn.

You know what though? The American people said they liked the debate. They came away liking both candidates better. What year is this? Is being "civil" and talking frequently about how you agreed with the other candidate all it takes? Apparently, to the people (who like myself) are sad about the state of our politics enjoy that thing. I actually think this election is too consequential to let MAGA off the hook, and I think Walz largely did that. The snap polls of debate watchers basically declared it a tie. That was somewhat of a surprise to me. Vance came away looking more appealing to the "average person" and I think that is unfortunate. Nobody should be surprised though that the young Senator is far more effective and articulate than Donald Trump could ever be. The "average voter" did not hold Walz's gaffes against him. They seemed to like him more, uneven performance and everything. Trump and Joe Biden's debate performances this cycle really lowered the bar. So, Walz could have what would normally be a disastrous non-answer and then subsequent confession during follow-up about not truly being in Hong Kong when the Tienanmen Square massacre happened in the summer of 1989. I immediately notices and right-wingers online went nuts when Walz claimed that he had "made friends with a school shooter." Yes, he clearly misspoke, and the voters seemed to shrug it off. Apparently, owning up to being a "knucklehead" at times is what Americans are looking for. While I think it is a good thing that the candidates shook hands and looked genuinely civil to one another, they also kept talking about how they found themselves in agreement. Maybe because both of them sounded like Democrats to me. There was a moment at the end of the debate, when Vance refused to answer if Trump lost the 2020 election or not, which could be harmful, but most people who care about that have already long made up their minds regarding whom they support. There was also a moment where the moderators tried to fact-check Vance, again on the issue of Haitian immigrants in Ohio, and Republicans were very upset about that. I note that the two female CBS moderators (Margaret Brennan and someone else I am not going to look up because I have always found CBS News the most boring of all the networks) never brought up the issue of Ukraine, a place where Vance has said he does not care what happens to, and nothing at all about "childless cat ladies." MAGA really has no room to complain.

The bottom line is that while Walz was not nearly as bad as Biden and Trump were in the first two debates of the season, he fell well-short of what Kamala Harris was able to do when it was her turn. The Democrats' nominee for Vice President did not effectively defend Harris as well as he could have (although it is true that is a tough job in many regards) but especially he was not nearly as tough on Trump as he could have been. This is a very tight election and people, who are focused on their own economic self-interests, need to be reminded just how chaotic the Trump years really were and how even crazier they would be for everyone if gets back in. Nothing that happened on the stage really amounted to anything though besides both VP candidates becoming more favorable by virtue of being calm and boring.

As mentioned, this is still a very close race, according to the polls. I think Democrats hoped and expected that they would be further ahead after convention season. I also think they felt that would be the case after the Harris-Trump Presidential debate. That has just not happened. If anything, there has been some modest movement towards Trump and he has not been put away politically. There are a lot of reasons to explain that, but the biggest one is that we are just very divided as a country on fundamental issues. I maintain that swapping out Biden was still the absolute right thing to do. If not, we would be talking about an impending Trump victory, with down-ballot gains made for his party as well. Still, it appears that at least among some groups, Harris does not have the political standing than even Biden had. A couple of weeks ago, the Teamsters took a couple of polls and found their rank and file union members easily preferred Trump to Harris. Previously, they were saying they preferred Biden to Trump. So, the Teamsters bosses, which always endorse a Democrat for President, decided that their union would not endorse anyone. This week, the Firefighters' Union, which was strongly behind Biden in 2020, also said they would not endorse a Presidential candidate. White working-class voters are continuing to leave Democrats, and Harris does not seem to be able to reverse that. She will have to hope to make even more gains among upscale voters and suburban women especially.

There was some relief on the part of Democrats this week when a strike by east coast Longshoremen was short-lived as the dockworkers agreed to a temporary deal that will keep them at work until after the election. Trump seemed to be rooting on this strike and the Biden Administration also being as beholden to organized labor as they are, were technically on their side as well. However, any sort of interruption to the supply chain involving a raise in consumer prices before the election would have been very bad for the incumbent party. Democrats got a break there and also got to enjoy some headlines related to strong economic numbers released on Friday. Some Republicans are claiming those numbers are fake and not as good as presented. This sort of denial over the numbers by the opposition party is really nothing new in Presidential politics.

More significantly, was all the wrangling over Hurricane Helene recovery efforts.  Trump and his allies are claiming the Biden-Harris Administration is not doing all that can be done for places like Georgia and North Carolina, which were devastated by the storm, largely in Republican leaning areas of the two swing states. They are insisting that the money that should have gone to those people instead has been going towards illegal immigrants. Trump even claimed that Biden had not spoken to the Republican Governor of Georgia, when that was demonstrably false. Playing politics after a hurricane is also not something that is new. Democrats have shamelessly done it before when a Republican was President,  but now Republicans are seeming to take it to a new level and there is so much misinformation being presented, especially on social media in regards to what is happening. Of course, they are also attacking Biden for not immediately visiting the disaster zones and Harris for attending campaign fundraisers. Brian Kemp, the Republican Governor of Georgia, whom Trump had famously turned on after 2020, appeared on a stage with Trump in the state this week. Considering the politics of our time, Kemp is not about to be seen publicly with Biden or Harris.

This week, Vice President Harris appeared at an event in Ripon, Wisconsin, near where the Republican Party was born 170 years ago, There, she received the official endorsement of former Republican Congresswoman Liz Cheney. In the portions of the speeches I was able to watch later, I thought both Cheney and Harris spoke very movingly about national unity and the importance of stopping Trump from taking power again. I absolutely hope that on the fence Republicans who live in states that will be close take those words to heart. I am also reminded that Joe Biden said many of the same things four years ago and then not long after becoming President, seemed to forget all about the Republicans (like myself) who voted for him.

Today, Donald Trump returned to Butler, Pennsylvania and held a large rally at the very site where he was shot at on July 13, in an attack that could have killed him, and did kill one of his supporters. I am sure the rally he held was as crazy as all his rallies are, but it is good, on some level, that fear will not dominate our political system or where candidates can go campaign. I am sure the Secret Service was much better prepared and better organized this time around.

The spouses of the Presidential candidates also made news this week. In a very widely reported story, Melania Trump, who has a new book coming out, made a video (oddly in black and white with ominous music) in which she speaks to a camera and proclaims her "no compromise": support for abortion. Needless to say, this puts her at odds with the position of her husband and most in his party (and me too of course.) Former GOP First Ladies have also been pro-choice, but tended to keep that to themselves until after their husbands political careers were wrapped up. When asked, Trump just said that he told her she was free to say what was in her heart. So many people are speculating as to why Mrs. Trump did this at this particular time. I really have no idea. Some say she actually wants her husband to lose, and maybe she does, but others think this was done by design to muddle the issue and have pro-choice people thinking that Trump was an ally. Even in the Vice Presidential debate, Vance soft-pedaled an answer on abortion and told an old friend who had one that he loved her.

A story that was not as widely reported, appeared in a British tabloid and claims that about 10 years ago, Doug Emhoff physically struck a girlfriend during an altercation. A spokesman for the Second Gentleman denied this accusation that Doug was ever anything other than a "gentleman." There does not seem to be much backup to this claim, so it is perhaps not appropriate for the American media to run with it. However, if Emhoff were a Republican, I am sure this would have gotten a lot of mainstream coverage. Imagine if a story like this had been alleged about Todd Palin in 2008. There is simply a double standard for Democrats. However, at the same time, the vast majority of Republicans are supporting a man who bragged about committing sexual assault against women and was found liable in court for such a thing.

The final topic I wish to mention is that this week, Jimmy Carter turned 100 years old, the first of our Presidents to ever do so. The next one who might possibly be able to do so is Joe Biden. After that would come in quick succession, Donald Trump, George W. Bush, and Bill Clinton. This is a remarkable milestone for Carter, especially considering he entered hospice care early last year, and it seemed like it was a matter of a very short period of time back then before he passed away. Since that time,. Rosalyn Carter has passed on, but Jimmy keeps going.

I cannot claim to be a fan of Carter's Presidency from an historical standpoint and I also think he was way off base in many of the things he said and did as a former President. However, I have to respect him for the great humanitarian works he did do as an ex-President and for his sheer tenacity in making it to 100 years old despite years of health challenges.

May G-d bless Jimmy Carter. He is now a century old in a matter of just a few days, Georgia voters will be able to officially cast their votes for President. Every vote there will matter and I have to believe he is hanging on for one final act of duty.