North Dakota Governor- Race of the Day

North Dakota Governor

64 Days Until Election Day

Status: Republican Open

2020 Presidential Result: Red State (Midwest)

Outlook: Safe Republican

It is not often that I would classify any open race for Governor as "Safe" but nothing else really makes sense when it comes to looking at North Dakota state level politics these days. Democrats have not won the Governorship since a 1988 reelection, and the best they have come since then was a 10 point defeat in 2000. Mostly, Republicans have scored victories with over 60 and 70 percent, and this year should follow the trend.

In 2022, North Dakota became the latest state to implement term limits for its Governor. However, that did not apply to the current occupant, two-term Republican Doug Burgum, who would have been eligible to run one more time. This began many months of speculation and uncertainty, as Burgum also considered running for President. Even when Burgum spent a few months on the trail last year as a long-shot primary contender for the White House, many believed he would ultimately decide to come back to North Dakota and run again for Governor. In January of 2024 though, Burgum said he would not seek a third term. At this time, he also very much changed his tune on Donald Trump. During the primary, he had been critical of the former President saying that as a highly successful businessman, he would not be able to engage in business relations with Trump. Later on, Burgum endorsed Trump and became a frequent surrogate and ardent defender on numerous television shows. It was clear he very much wanted to be chosen for Vice President, and was the betting favorite at some points. It appears that Burgum was the runner-up to JD Vance, who was preferred by Trump's adult sons. The candidate himself has made some suggestions that the soon to be former Governor of North Dakota might join his next Cabinet, if he were to win.

While there was still uncertainty over the incumbent, former Republican State Senator Tom Campbell entered the race for Governor and said he would stay in no matter what. He had a history though of dropping out of primary contests for statewide Congressional elections. Campbell did the same this year, leaving the race for Governor to run for U.S. House, in a race he also dropped out of before the primary.

With Burgum not seeking reelection, it was still pretty clear that the next Governor would be chosen in the June Republican primary. The Governor endorsed his Lt. Governor Tammy Miller to replace him. However, Trump had another candidate in mind, and the state party, and many other prominent North Dakota Republicans lined up in supporting Kelly Armstrong, who was serving in his third term, representing the entire state in the U.S. House. Armstrong was once seen as an establishment type Republican, leery of Trump, but like many others in the party, became an ardent supporter leading up to the 2024 elections. He easily defeated Miller 73-27, which if nothing else, does not say much about Burgum's political pull among Republicans in the state. North Dakota is a state where candidates choose their Lt. Governor running-mate ahead of the primary. Running with Armstrong was State Representative Michelle Strinden, who has a background in education.

As for the Democrats, it looked for a time like their only candidate would be a security guard named Travis Hipsher. He dropped out though and the party was able to get State Senator Merrill Piepkorn to run. The Democrat did not face a primary challenge and was nominated alongside Patrick Hart, a businessman who formerly chaired the state party. In 2020, Hart received less than a third of the vote as his party's nominee for Auditor. A former small town City Councilman is also running as an Independent. Michael Coachman is an African-American former Republican who has run unsuccessfully for several offices and apparently had tried to get Burgum impeached. It is unlikely he will be much of a factor.

Kelly Armstrong probably could have served in the U.S. House as long as he wanted and would have had opportunities to move up the Republican leadership ladder, or perhaps be next in line for a U.S. Senate seat. However, he has determined that his political and personal future is best served for now at home as Governor, and that is what will almost certainly happen.

Governor races predicted thus far:

2 D (1 Likely, 1 Leans)

5 R (1 Safe, 2 Likely, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup)

Total with predicted thus far:

22 Democrats (1 Likely, 1 Leans, 20 Holdover)

24 Republicans (1 Safe, 2 Likely, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup, 19 Holdover)