Monday, November 07, 2016

Final 2016 Predictions

1 Day Until Election Day

Needless to say, this is a pretty different feeling for me on the eve of an Election. Usually, I am a nervous wreck, either pessimistic or optimistic. This year, I feel nothing except regret about what could have been and concern for the country. I have spent over a couple decades now as a political junkie, and I probably will remain one, but I could also see myself just becoming a "normal person" and hoping for the best, without really being too invested. After all, I got to see the Chicago Cubs win the World Series! That just may be the trade I needed to make.

For now, I will hope that every Republican nominee in the country not named Donald Trump or running with Donald Trump wins. With the possible exception of Joe Arpaio.

Many of those Republicans are good people, but some I have lost all sorts of respect for. In time, we will see if conservatism or populism prevails in the GOP and just how bad the split will be. If things are to ever return to "normalcy" though, we need as many Republicans as possible in office to serve alongside, and when necessary in opposition to the agenda of the new President.

It was just two years ago when Republicans achieved glorious results, nearly from coast to coast in the midterms and then consciously threw it all away. To my embarrassment, there are more racists and bigots in my party than I realized and more who may not be that way themselves but are willing to overlook it. Not me though. Not this year and not ever. I hope the side of inclusive conservatism ultimately prevails in the Republican Party, but if not, I will hope that a new home opens up for it. I would not feel welcomed in either major party.

Hillary Clinton is truly unworthy of the Presidency in a plethora of ways, even as those on my side who dislike her have become manically unhinged in trying to prove their opposition to her. It just seems like they are feeling massive guilt about Trump and are trying to compensate for it.

Hillary is horrible, but Trump is worse. Far, far worse. While I did not and could never vote for her, I do not think she is insane. Her major opponent might be. She knowingly put the security of the U.S. at risk and that's easily a disqualifying factor to me, but I do not think she is actually loyal to the regime of hostile country. I cannot say that about Donald Trump.

In a matter of hours,  I believe Donald Trump will have "failed hugely" and for America, that will be good. The work is not done though until Trumpism and what it represents is thoroughly defeated.

Now, on to the predictions. These are changes and totals only


IA- Tossup Trump, change from Tossup Clinton

Electoral College- Clinton 341, Trump 197
Popular vote guess 50-44

New Hampshire- Tossup (D)- change from Tossup (R)
Vermont- Tossup (R)- change from Tossup (D)

Governor race predictions:

9 D (1 Safe, 2 Likely, 4 Leans, 2 Tossup)
3 R (1 Safe, 1 Likely, 1 Tossup)

Overall prediction: 20 D, 30 R

Democrat net gain of 1

 U.S. Senate:

Arizona- Leans Republican- change from Likely Republican
Colorado- Leans Democrat- change from Likely Democrat
Illinois- Likely Democrat- change from Leans Democrat
Missouri- Tossup (R)- change from Leans Republican
Nevada- Tossup (D)- change from Tossup (R)
North Carolina- Tossup (R)- change from Leans R
Pennsylvania- Tossup (D)- change from Tossup (R)

Senate races predicted:
13 D (8 Safe, 1 Likely, 2 Leans,  2 Tossup)
21 R (9 Safe, 5 Likely, 3 Leans, 4 Tossup)

Overall prediction: 49 D, 51 R

Democrat Net Gain of 3

My prediction is that Republicans just barely hang on to the Senate majority but realistically, that may not happen. New Hampshire will probably tell the tale and Republicans will have to sweat out more than Democrats. Assuming the GOP is not in shambles in 2018, the midterm map should be quite favorable towards either regaining or increasing the majority.


U.S. House

196 D (158 Safe, 25 Likely, 9 Leans, 4 Tossup)
239 R (161 Safe, 51 Likely, 19 Leans, 8 Tossup)

Democrats pick up 8 seats
Republicans maintain Majority 

There is definitely some room to spare for Republicans after the 2014 blow-out of Democrats. The unpopularity of Hillary Clinton in so many places across the country is the only reason that Democrats will not be able to gain more than 20 seats max and be competitive for taking over the House.