Friday, September 28, 2012

U.S. House Predictions- Part I

39 Days Until Election Day


Every two years, I predict the results of all 435 U.S. House races. However, the format of all this will be a little  bit different this cycle, as it is the first time I am doing this after this decade's redistricting and reapportionment. Basically, any state that has more than one district has been changed to some extent and it's not really possible to list who is considered an incumbent and what district is considered open. I will do the best I can to predict these races, but it is quite likely I will miss several more of these than I typically do, because of all these changes. There should be a better handle for these districts in 2014. I found an online source which breaks down all the new districts by the 2008 Presidential vote, so I will utilize that, as I typically do. I just hope the source is accurate. When I list the current make-up of each state's delegation, it will include vacancies, considering the party affiliation of the most recent former Representative.


1. Jo Bonner R (McCain 61%)- Safe R
2. Therese Ford D vs. Martha Roby R (McCain 64%)- Safe R
3. John Andrew Harris D vs. Mike Rogers R (McCain 63%)- Safe R
4. Daniel Boman D vs. Robert Aderholt R (McCain 73%)- Safe R
5. Charlie Holley D vs. Mo Brooks R (McCain 63%)- Likely R
6. Penny Bailey D. vs. Spencer Bachus R (McCain 74%)- Safe R
7. Terri Sewell D vs. Don Chamberlain R (Obama 71%)- Safe D

AL current: 1 D, 6 R
AL predicted: 1 D, 6 R

Current total: 1 D, 6 R
1 D (1 Safe)
6 R (5 Safe, 1 Likely)


1. Sharon Cissna D vs. Don Young R (McCain 59%)- Likely R

AK current: 0 D, 1 R
AK predicted 0 D, 1 R

Current total: 1 D, 7 R
1 D (1 Safe)
7 R (5 Safe, 2 Likely)


1. Ann Kirkpatrick D vs. Jonathan Paton R (McCain 51%)- Tossup (R)
2. Ron Barber D vs. Martha McSally R (McCain 50%)- Leans D
3. Raul Grijalva D vs. Gabriela Saucedo Mercer R (Obama 58%)- Safe D
4. Johnnie Robinson D vs. Paul Gosar R (McCain 64%)- Safe R
5. Spencer Morgan D vs. Matt Salmon R (McCain 63%)- Safe R
6. Matt Jette D vs. David Schweikert R (McCain 58%)- Safe R
7. Ed Pastor D vs.Scott Fistler R (Obama 65%)- Safe D
8. Gene Scharer D vs. Trent Franks R (McCain 61%)- Safe R
9. Kyrsten Sinema D vs. Vernon Parker R (Obama 51%)- Leans D

AZ current: 3 D, 5 R
AZ predicted: 4 D, 5 R

Current total: 4 D, 12 R
5 D (3 Safe, 2 Leans)
12 R (9 Safe, 2 Likely, 1 Tossup)


1. Scott Ellington D vs. Rick Crawford R (McCain 58%)- Safe R
2. Herb Rule D vs. Tim Griffin R (McCain 54%)- Likely R
3. Rebekah Kennedy I vs. Steve Womack R (McCain 64%)- Safe R
4. Gene Jeffress D vs. Tom Cotton R (McCain 60%)- Likely R

AR current: 1 D, 3 R
AR predicted: 0 D, 4 R

Current total: 5 D, 15 R
5 D (3 Safe, 2 Leans)
16 R (11 Safe, 4 Likely, 1 Tossup)