Democracy 2024: # 29

This week, attorneys for former President Donald Trump received a Target Letter from the Special Prosecutor which basically confirmed to them that their client is about to be indicted for alleged crimes related to trying to steal the 2020 Presidential election, after he had lost.

Trump railed on social media about receiving this Target Letter on a Sunday night, when the Apprentice used to air after all, and after declining an appearance before the Grand Jury, is continuing to say things that no criminal defendant is ever advised to say.

A Target Letter though and probably not his first? He probably wondered when Wal-Mart would finally send him something.

In the meantime, Ron DeSantis would probably lover some kind of letter as every time Donald Trump gets indicted, he seems to increase his lead in Republican polls. At the same time, Democrats are happy because they love the idea of running against Trump once again. Robert Kennedy Jr., the President's main rival for the nomination continues to embarrass himself on a national stage, as MAGA types try to prop him up as a political ploy. A score of other Republican candidates,, most meek and mushy-mouthed on Trump, a small number far more bold, are languishing in single digits.  Meanwhile, on Capitol Hill, many Republicans in the Senate and House are convinced that they have the goods that prove that Joe Biden took bribes as Vice President. Those who defend Trump at every opportunity believe these allegations against Biden of course, while those who are devoted to the Donkey Tribe are unwilling to even consider it as plausible. For now, these sources appear to not be substantial enough to view as proof of anything. Nor should they be ruled completely out of hand. It all seems very political though. Those who have bemoaned what the "Steele Dossier" did to America should be very careful in falling down conspiratorial rabbit holes.

Nonetheless, it seems clear that for a variety of reasons, the American people do not want to see a Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump rematch. They do not believe either man should be re-nominated or even running again in 2024. Trump is thermonuclear to a majority of Americans who will never consider voting for him. We know now that his efforts to delay the trial for his first federal indictment until after the election is failed,and he will be standing trial in Florida, likely after the Republican primaries are all but over, but before the general election really gets under way. Many Americans who would vote for him, either in a general election or primaries as well, continue to have massive concerns about him and would prefer he just go away. As for Biden, many of his policies are considered unpopular and there continues to be angst about the American economy and things like inflation. Traditionally, he would not be in a good place politically for an incumbent seeking a second term. Beyond that, even many who are far from Biden haters look at his age and have major concerns about what could happen to him in a second term and are frankly dumbfounded that he wants to run again.

So, might there be a third choice? A "centrist alternative?" That will be my focus this week. Democrats and the media (often hard to distinguish) seem both utterly dismissive of the possibility and aghast that such an effort would somehow bring Trump back to the Oval Office. At this point in time, the "No Labels" group has achieved ballot status in some states and is working towards making the November ballot in many others. Thus, to those who Biden to win another term, this is becoming a time sensitive crusade to stop the effort as early as possible, to ensure, or perhaps better put "force" the American people to have to choose between Biden and Trump.

 

First, let us make clear that the concerns the Democrats have about the Green Party and the candidacy of Cornell West is a very different thing. Those folks believe Joe Biden has not been and is not left-wing enough. They are the "dead-enders" of the Left. Lord knows the right-wing has them too, and somehow they found a hero in Donald Trump, even though he was a longtime Democrat, and differed from conservative orthodoxy at many turns. If the candidacy of Cornel West flourishes, even to a small degree, it has nothing to do with conservatives or centrists, but socialists and liberals who are seeking purity.

The "No Labels" effort is very different. They are saying they wish to offer a "middle ground" approach with compromises on controversial issues as a key governing strategy. Whether that sounds appealing to party loyalists or not, the reality is that many Americans, have been saying for decades that they want such a thing. It was a key component of how Ross Perot took 19 percent of the vote in 1992, and how before he demonstrated some of his personal craziness, once looked poised to take even more than that. 

Even more so, folks associated with this effort to put a bipartisan Independent ticket on the ballot are saying that they have no intention of  "playing spoiler" and would literally end the efforts and have the ticket drop out of the race if polls showed that their presence would guarantee the election of either major party. Right now, the main speculation is about West Virginia Democrat Senator Joe Manchin, who may seek to run for President as an Independent, rather than face an uphill reelection campaign in his pro-Trump home state. This week, he took part in a kickoff event for No Labels in New Hampshire, along with Jon Huntsman, the former Republican Governor of Utah, who sought the GOP nomination as the most moderate candidate in 2012. Huntsman has also served as an Ambassador under both Barack Obama and Donald Trump and has given off many mixed messages about his political allegiances over the years. Huntsman is now being polled as a probably Vice Presidential candidate under Manchin because the group says it would put forth a bipartisan ticket. Former Maryland Republican Governor Larry Hogan also seems at least a bit interested in the top spot on the ticket. 

While he is certainly too old to be in contention for either spot, Joe Lieberman, the former Senator from Connecticut, who was the Democrats' nominee for Vice President in 2000 (and reportedly almost the Republican nominee for Vice President in 2008) is heavily involved in the effort as well. Those dismiss the concept of a non-Republican/non-Democrat winning an election should at least remember that Lieberman did so, in being reelected to the Senate, after he lost a primary to a more liberal Democrat. Going back a bit further, the man Lieberman once unseated in the Senate, quickly rebounded and won elected as Governor of Connecticut as an Independent over both major parties. It is rare, but it has happened. Current Alaska Senator Lisa Murkowski won reelection once as a write-in candidate after losing a Republican primary to a more conservative opponent. This week, she said she would support her colleague Manchin in a race against Trump and Biden.

In my view, it is too early to rule out the possibility that a theoretical ticket could somehow win the election. Yes, it would be unlikely, but never before in American history have there been two potential nominees who are both as unpopular as they would be. I wish to take a broader perspective though. Even if a distant third place finish is the best this ticket could hope for, at least it would give an avenue of conscience to people like myself who simply would find it impossible to vote for Trump or Biden.Yes, if it is clear that Manchin or whomever is on a clear path to cost Biden to the extent where Trump would win again, then maybe they need to step aside, at least in the swing states, but we are far from that point.

I find it hard to believe that so many people think this hypothetical ticket would hurt Biden more than Trump and would not cost both of them fairly evenly.Some early polling backs up my claim that it would basically take votes from both, and thus have no real effect on the eventual outcome. The early data also shows that there are enough Americans willing to consider a third ticket that victory cannot be ruled out. After all the unpredictability of Presidential politics in both 2016 and 2020, nothing should be completely ruled out as impossible.

Those who are Democrats and who seem most peeved about this attempt to give Americans another choice clearly care more about having a Democrat as President than not having Donald Trump as President. I can relate to partisan loyalists but they are not being honest about their true intentions and are trying to make it seem like an effort to offer more democratic choices to Americans on Election Day is somehow a "threat to democracy." I think they have it backwards.

What does it say about Joe Biden, either as a President or a candidate, if there is so much fear that Joe Manchin could cost him a win? It shows how weak Biden is and how Democrats think they need to prop him up. I happen to think that Biden would beat Trump in a one on one race, but the numbers should be close enough to give tremendous concern to Biden backers. He ought to be beating Trump by double digits. At the same time, Trump's claim that he is beating Biden by "a lot" is not backed up by any semblance of fact, but that has never stopped Trump before.

As I have written in the past, I am a lifelong Republican who while I could not vote for Trump in 2016, had never voted for any Democrat in a partisan race. That changed in 2020, when I voted for Joe Biden to be President. This was an anti-Trump vote above all else. I had no illusions about liking most things Biden would do, but I wanted to be counted as casting the most devastating possible anti-Trump vote in the column where it would be most noticed.

What sealed the deal for me was a television ad that I found very moving. Perhaps, I was looking for an excuse to do what I did. It said that as President, Joe Biden would not need Americans to always agree, but we could all agree that we loved our country and would go from there. It was top notch stuff. I do not feel like Joe Biden or those he has surrounded himself with since becoming President have even come close to attempting to live up to the spirit of the pledge.

Yes, Biden is not Trump. Yes, Trump is worse. Yes, we are comparing him to the alternative and not the Almighty, but this American thinks we all deserve better. Politics is even more tribalized these days. Biden played a big part in that pre-Trump and after claiming he would try to bring us together, bears responsibility as well for what is going on today. It may seem like a minor point, but in taking office, Biden nominated virtually nobody for any job of any substance who had recently been a Republican. I would not have expected him to pick a Trump supporter for his Cabinet, but he had plenty of Never Trump folks who voted for him that he could have selected, some of whom actually had declared themselves to now be Democrats. However, if someone did not also vote for Barack Obama both times, they seem to have been counted out.

He and his team are not acting like it is ok if "we do not always agree." They castigate and attack Americans if they disagree on abortion or guns or voter ID cards. If an American agrees with the Supreme Court on recent affirmative action or free speech issues or the Constitutionality of the student loan executive order, they are lumped in with "extreme MAGA Republicans." I take offense to much of the rhetoric coming out of the Biden White House and that of Democrats generally. I understand how politics works and how messaging is important, but I have been anti-Trump since the first possible second and am not extreme in my conservative views. As mentioned, I voted for Biden. He was going to win my state of Illinois regardless, but people like me, (those who had voted for McCain and Romney in the most recent past) are literally the reason he beat Trump nationwide. I feel like we have not been respected the way we should have. Yes, there were always going to be some fundamental disagreements, but the White House talking about "Jim Crow" serves no good.

Biden governing from the left is a major reason why his approval ratings are low and why Democrats are desperate to prop him up against Trump and in the process are trying to shame people like Manchin and those who might support him or someone similar on the Trump angle. If Biden had been governing as he campaigned in the 2020 general election, he would be in better shape, even as the age issue remains at the forefront for many.

So, in the months ahead, if No Labels is successful in getting on the ballot, those who want Biden to be reelected should face reality. People want a third option for a reason, even when Trump is part of the equation. Instead of demanding we fall in line, perhaps their party should recognize the main challenge to American democracy and move a little bit more to the middle.