Oklahoma U.S. Senate- Race of the Day
43 Days Until Election Day
Oklahoma U.S. Senate
Outlook: Safe Republican
Not all that long ago, it would have been hard to look at any open U.S. Senate seat as "safe" for either party. With the differences between red states and blue states being what they are today though, that is definitely the case now for one party or another in various states, regardless of the national political environment.
Of course, this race was supposed to be a routine reelection for Republican Senator Markwayne Mullin, and actually one for his first full term. The plumber turned Congressman had won a special election to the Senate in 2022, after the incumbent, who has since passed away, retired early due to health. No Democrat has been elected to the Senate from the Sooner State since 1990.
Earlier this year, Mullin, who was running for the Senate, was tapped by Donald Trump to replace the embattled and in many ways humiliated Kristi Noem as Secretary of Homeland Security. While he was generally well-liked by Senate colleagues (with the notable exception of Republican Rand Paul), Mullin seemed somewhat of an add choice for such a high-level post. For one thing, he had recently been making all sorts of verbal gaffes during some of his many television interviews. On the first day, there was some question as to whether he had even agreed to take the job before he was announced and if he might even face confirmation issues in the Republican Senate. He was probably expecting a longer career on Capitol Hill, but he agreed to take the job, and with that the necessity of leaving the Senate quickly behind. Recent reports are that Trump is already quite unhappy with Mullin in the post. Maybe he winds up getting fired shortly after the midterms and he will realize he left the Senate for nothing.
Oklahoma's Republican Governor Kevin Stitt first had to pick a replacement. Stitt has not always been close to Trump, but he seemingly agreed to let Trump basically pick the person, who would apparently be a caretaker Senator who would not immediately jump into the race for the full term with the June primary rapidly approaching. Even I had to look up the name of the current junior Senator from Oklahoma. I had never heard of him before but the gig currently belongs to an energy industry businessman named Alan Armstrong. I wonder how many of his colleagues still have no idea what he even looks like.
With a sudden vacancy present, all sorts of Republicans were probably interested, including the entire U.S. House delegation. They were running for reelection also though, so clearly there would be some political musical chairs involved. It appears the new Senator will be able to be sworn in right after the November election and will have a leg up on seniority over the rest of the class of 2026. Congressman Kevin Hern announced his candidacy and Trump quickly endorsed him, all but ending any potential of a real primary.
Hern, who owned a large number of McDonald's franchises as well as other business interests was elected to Congress when he won a 2018 special election to replace another Republican who had resigned to join the Trump Administration. In the Republican caucus, Hern became a leader among conservatives and received votes for Speaker during those exercises. In June's Senate primary, he took 70 percent against four opponents which was easily enough to avoid a runoff but perhaps not exactly a dominating finish. A country music singer named Ty England finished second with 14 percent. Maybe he would have done even better if he changed his name to "Ty America."
For some time now, Democrat contests for Senate in Oklahoma have largely been afterthoughts, even though the race in 2022 had Mulin easily beating a credible opponent, who had briefly been a Congresswoman after upsetting a Republican incumbent. This year, Democrats are not going to reach that level. Five candidates competed in the June primary. An Asian-American former State Senator who had since become a Democrat finished fourth with just 7 percent. In third place with 20 percent was a charity organization founded named Troy Green but he finished four points out of a late August runoff spot, which the very concept of in this state seems like a waste of time.
In the first round, lawyer and businessman Jim Priest, who had the support of what remains of the Oklahoma Democrat party establishment took 24 percent well behind the 45 percent received by a little known 31 year old nurse named N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas. In the runoff Thomas won 61-39. Primary voters were likely not too aware that Thomas identifies as a Democratic Socialist. They may have liked the idea of voting for a woman, as most recent nominees for Governor and Senate have been female. Thomas identifies as a mixture of black, white, and Native American. Last year, she posted a TikTok video which is apparently a satirical take on something from the move "Mean Girls" but which featured her angrily destroying a pink bedroom and taking a scissors to a picture of Markwayne Mullin. Some on the right who saw this online believed it was legitimate and classified it as a "crashout."
Hern does not have much to worry about in this race, even if were not to be facing a socialist, but the fact that Democrats nominated one in Oklahoma is likely is to be brought up in many other states. The general election ballot does feature three other candidates including a nurse named Ron Meinhardt (not to be confused with "Mean Girls") who claims to be a conservative and an independent minded Republican. I was curious to look at his website, but he clearly is one of those anti-Israel Thomas Massive types. So, good luck Oklahoma, you do not seem to have much to vote for here in my view.
posted by Corey @ Monday, September 21, 2026
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