South Dakota U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

32 Days Until Election Day

South Dakota U.S. Senate

 

Status: Republican Incumbent

2024 Presidential Result: Red State (Midwest)

 

Outlook: Leans Republican

 

The last Democrat to win a Senate election in South Dakota did so in 2008, when a longtime Member of Congress was reelected to the upper chamber. Since then, the state has moved even more sharply towards Republicans at all levels of government. However, this race looks pretty competitive right now, and perhaps that is because a Democrat is not challenging the incumbent, but an Independent is. This is following the example this cycle of what is going on in Nebraska and Idaho, and what many Democrats wish what was going on in Montana.

Republican Mike Rounds is seeking his third Senate term. Before that, the home state junior colleague to Republican Senate Leader John Thune, had served two terms as Governor, and has the reputation of being a pretty mainstream Republican willing to work in a collaborative way. A few years back, Rounds admitted that Donald Trump had lost the 2020 election fair and square and Trump responded with outrage and said that he would never endorse Rounds again. He did not mean it. Trump did indeed endorse Rounds this cycle before a primary. Maybe Senator Thune had something to do with that. In June, the incumbent defeated businessman and Navy veteran Justin McNeal,who raised virtually no money by a 76-24 margin.

 

Democrats did not have a contested primary. The nomination went to Julian Beaudion, a businessman and former state trooper, who was a rare African-American political candidate in South Dakota. The party's nominee would not stay in the race too long though. In August, under pressure from the party, Beaudion dropped out of the race to help clear the way for an Independent challenger to Rounds that was viewed as being more viable in a general election.

 

Brian Bengs is an attorney and former professor who served in the U.S. Navy and retired as a Lt. Colonel in the Air Force. In 2022, Democrats nominated Bengs as their candidate for U.S. Senate and he lost to Thune by a massive margin of  70-26. Now, many are thinking and definitely hoping that the political environment is far different in a Trump midterm election than a Biden one, and even more so, than having an I next to one's name is far better electorally in the state than having a D.

 

Personally, I am a bit surprised that this race appears to have the dynamics it does. A lot of right-wing voters have never really liked Rounds and others probably think he has been around the political scene for too long. South Dakota though is extremely Republican state. Bengs must be a better campaigner than he was during his first race as a Democrat, People are definitely paying attention and apparently Rounds is refusing to debate his opponent. Recently, Bengs was doing a political advocacy event on Capitol Hill and got into a verbal confrontation with a protestor.

 

This definitely would have been a race I would have classified as "Likely Republican" and while they may indeed be inaccurate, there are some polls out recently that have to make me call this as a "Leans" race at the moment. For one thing, a Democrat sponsored survey from late August, that for whatever reason was just released this week, shows Bengs ahead of Rounds 51-44, an exact mirror image of the Republican lead in the race for Governor, which itself was pretty surprising in the closeness. If Bengs is really ahead by 7 points and at 51 percent, we can expect to see a momentous political turnover. I have my doubts that Bengs is up by seven. He may only be down by seven though which would be a story itself. I do think it would be that close if the challenger was running as an actual Democrat, although this poll also does show a competitive race between a Republican and Democrat for an open statewide Congressional seat. 

 

In September, the Bengs campaign did a poll which showed him only trailing 45-42. Internal polls are often too rosy for the person paying for them, but it cannot be totally ignored. Towards the end of September though, it looks like the Bengs campaign paid for a different poll, by a different company,  and that showed a six point lead for Rounds, including a 53-47 result when leaners were pushed.

 

All of this leads me to think that this somewhat unconventional race in South Dakota is a good deal closer than it was ever supposed to be, but that Rounds will probably pull it out, without the need for a very late night watching the returns come in. It would be very interesting to see if a non-partisan pollster will try to take a snapshot of what is going on in the state amid so much discussion of tariffs, gas prices, data centers, and a war with Iran. Once again, South Dakota is very Republican, but if things are close for the Senate in that Midwest prairie state, then things might be extremely dicey for nearby Republicans in places like Nebraska, Kansas, and Iowa.

 

Senate races predicted thus far: 

14 D (7 Safe, 1 Likely, 4 Leans, 2 Tossup)

16 R (3 Safe, 4 Likely, 6 Leans, 3 Tossup)

 

Senate total predicted thus far:

48 D (34 holdover, 7 Safe, 1 Likely, 4 Leans, 2 Tossup) 

47 R (31 holdover, 3 Safe, 4 Likely, 6 Leans, 3 Tossup)