Maryland Governor- Race of the Day

 68 Days Until Election Day

Maryland Governor

Status: Democrat Incumbent

2024 Presidential Result: Blue State (East)

 

Outlook: Safe Democrat

 

There is not much drama this year in a contest for Governor in one of America's most heavily Democrat states. The incumbent though is likely focused on pivoting to a new race once he runs through the finish line on this one.

 

Like the race this year for Illinois Governor and which ended in a landslide the same rematch is going on in Maryland and should see a similar result. Also, like Governor JB Pritzker in the Midwest, Governor Wes Moore is very likely to become a Presidential candidate for Democrats. Moore does a lot of national interviews and always seems to be asked "the question." He repeatedly says in regards to 2028, "I am not running." Yes, we get it. You are not currently running for that, at least until there is an Exploratory Committee announced, but his specific semantics games seem a little too "cute."

 

While Moore will not have any trouble winning a second term, there is some evidence to suggest that voters in his state may not be anywhere close to universally approving of his policies or his record on taxes or other matters. However, the Republican Party in the state is so weak and the particular candidate once again nominated is so far to the right, that none of that matters. Moore could probably declare himself a Pittsburgh Steelers fan and win reelection.

Four years ago, Moore, an African-American and first time political candidate at age 44, defeated a crowded and credentialed field to become his party's Gubernatorial nominee. He definitely had an impressive resume as a former Army officer, investment banker, author, and philanthropist. Some aspects of his resume may possibly have been exaggerated upon further review, but there was no doubt he was an extremely talented communicator. Some might have thought Moore could have been too good to be true, but it was clear he was someone to watch on the national scene.

 

The general election was held to replace the term-limted Governor Larry Hogan, a rare Republican elected official in the state, who remained popular in office, and was noted for his consistent refusal to ever offer political support to Donald Trump. With Hogan leaving though, it seemed very likely Maryland would revert to its blue roots. That was even more of a certainty after MAGA primary voters rejected Moore's endorsed candidate in favor of State Delegate Dan Cox an individual who had clashed with Hogan in Annapolis and called for the impeachment of the Governor of his party. In 2016, Cox had lost by a wide margin in a race for Congress in a blue district. The outgoing Governor refused to support him this year and Moore won in November 65-32.

 

As 2026 approached, Hogan, who had by at that point recently lost a competitive race for the U.S. Senate, looked to be at least somewhat considering a Gubernatorial comeback. As much as I personally like Hogan, that would have been a bad idea politically The Senate loss showed how any Republican, even an independent minded one was behind the eight ball in Maryland. It is even doubtful that the kind of Republican primary voters that currently exist in Maryland would not have stood in the way of Hogan. In some ways, it is unfortunate that Moore has continued to be such a critic of his popular predecessor. It would have been politically shrewd to build bridges to a Republican as a sign of how much the party had changed under Trump.

 

In Maryland, candidates by the boatload seem to qualify for the ballot and as is the case in some other stats, tickets run together in the June primary to nominate a team for Governor and Lt. Governor On that day, Moore and sitting Lt. Governor Aruna Miller, whose family came to America from India when she was a child, took 88 percent which is of course dominant, but maybe a little surprising that someone got double digits against the Governor in the primary.

The Republican field was quite crowded. Most candidates finished in single digits including a military veteran and former local deputy Sheriff, who ran on a ticket with a former state delegate. The race came down mostly to two candidates, one the choice of what remained of the Republican establishment in the state and the other Dan Cox. The latter won the primary by a 43-36 margin over Ed Hale, a somewhat prominent retired banker and newspaper publisher who was a Democrat before switching parties for this race and his ticket partner Tyrone Keys, a black financial services executive, who apparently is not the same guy with that name who played on the 1985 Bears (and frankly I do not think I ever heard of from that team.)

Speaking of Illinois though, the similarities between Dan Cox and Darren Bailey really just keep coming. Both left their state legislatures and then lost Republican Congressional primaries in 2024, before trying to run for Governor against in 2026, In both cases, the candidates had different running-mates than the person they ran with four years earlier. This year, Cox is running with gun range owner Rob Krop.

 

Considering the blowout loss Cox suffered at the hands of Moore in 2022, in an open race during a midterm election for an unpopular Democrat Administration, it is hard to see how it will not get even worse for this Republican against an incumbent in a midterm election, right near the heart of the federal Beltway, of an even more unpopular President named Trump. Hale, or someone else, would have done a little better against Moore, but nobody with an R next to their name is winning anything statewide in Maryland anytime soon. A big topic of contention in Maryland in recent months had been Moore's attempts to redraw Congressional maps to ice out the one Republican the state sends to the U.S. House, following suit to what Republicans had done in other states, but he ran into opposition from a legislative leader in his own party. Changes to the maps may be very possible in 2028 though.

 

By that point, Moore may finally admit he is running for President and hoping to turn the Governorship over to Lt. Governor Miller. Right now, the Presidential polls which are mostly about name recognition show Moore way back in the pack, but I think he is definitely a contender. As it is, he has been spending a ton of time during his term outside of Maryland, likely making political and financial connections. At times, he has clashed publicly with Trump and was done a favor when Trump singled him and one other Democrat Governor out in refusing to invite them to join their colleagues at a White House dinner.

 

The primary calendar for Democrats now has South Carolina going first in 2028 and that is a state where black voters will decide the outcome.While the person endorsed by Congressman Jim Clyburn will have a major advantage, the opportunity could present itself for Moore. The most prominent African-American candidate going into the early states will have a lot going for them. That might put Moore on a sort of collision course with Kamala Harris, if she truly attempts to run again. White liberals are also going to have a huge say nationally in who has the momentum in the Presidential primaries and white liberals love the idea of a progressiev black guy who can give a strong inspirational stump speech. That worked for Barack Obama in 2008 and there is at least a chance that Wes Moore might think he has the same political magic.

 

 

Gubernatorial races predicted thus far: 

10 D (3 Safe, 3 Likely, 2 Leans, 2Tossup)

  6 R (2 Safe, I Likely, 1 Leans, 2 Tossup)

 

Totals predicted thus far:

16 D (6 holdover, 3 Safe, 3 Likely, 2 Leans, 2 Tossup)

14 R (8 holdover, 2 Safe, 1 Likely, 1 Leans, 2 Tossup)