Minnesota Governor- Race of the Day

 63 Days Until Election Day

 

Minnesota Governor

 

Status: Democrat Open

2024 Presidential Result: Blue State (Midwest)

 

Outlook: Likely Democrat

 

Over the past six years, Minnesota has been at the forefront of political turmoil in America from the civil unrest after the George Floyd murder in 2020 to aggressive ICE enforcement tactics and massive protests that left two American citizens dead this year on the streets of Minneapolis. Add in an assassination of a former Democrat House Speaker plus her husband, and the wounding of another lawmaker and his wife, and the Land of 10, 000 Lakes has been anything but serene.

 

Two term Democrat Governor Tim Walz, who has presided over the state this entire time was eligible to seek another term and was actively doing so not too long ago. Members of his party were mostly fired up when Walz was selected to run on a national ticket with Kamala Harris in 2024, but he wound up not getting good reviews during that relatively short campaign. His ability to appeal to small town voters or white males proved futile (which was somewhat apparent in a fairly underwhelming 2022 reelection) and the ticket lost nationally with even his state of Minnesota winding up closer than expected.

 

Walz seemed to like the national attention though. He did not rule himself out as a Presidential candidate for 2028, even as Harris herself was still in play herself. First though, he was running for reelection to a job he and others thought he would have been out of by then. That includes his Lt. Governor Peggy Flanagan, who was apparently measuring the figurative drapes in 2024, and that caused some tension between her and Walz. She would go on to run this year for the U.S. Senate and for one thing, he would need to pick a new running-mate before an August primary.

 

The incumbent was favored to win another term, perhaps in part because Donald Trump started talking about him quite a bit and he became a reviled figure in MAGA circles, Then, the issue of welfare fraud in the state, especially among the sizable population of Somali refugees came to the forefront. It looked like the Justice Department had their eye on Walz. Clearly, there were problems in the state with this issue, which Walz himself admitted, but the way that Trump and his allies have focused on people from Somalia, including those who became naturalized citizens is really pretty chilling. The noise became greater and greater though and it looked like it could have a serious impact on Walz's reelection campaign. Early this year, just before the killing of anti-ICE protester/motorist Renee Good in fact, Walz pulled the plug on his reelection bid, while also not heeding the calls from the right that he should resign. The Governor phrased his decision as needing to spend the remainder of his term dealing with the problems of state government without being distracted by a campaign. It perhaps seems to me like he was concerned he would be indicted if he stayed in the race. Since that point, Walz has greatly fallen off as a public target from Trump. His political career, which at one point looked like a very possible stint as Vice President, is perhaps coming to an end though. 

 

A political reality is that Walz leaving the race makes this now an easier election for Democrats to defend. They would have to find a new candidate for Governor though. Not having to look very far, U.S. Senator Amy Klobuchar heard the calls to step in and she would win 90 percent in the primary against several minor opponents, after having previously been endorsed by state party members, which is a tradition in Minnesota for both parties.

 

Klobuchar has never lost an election in Minnesota and has not even been that seriously challenged. First elected to the Senate in 2012 and reelected two years ago, she probably could have stayed there for more terms. She is leaving that behind though to run for Governor at age 66 and with that, it probably means that Klobuchar has come to terms with the unlikelihood of ever running for President again. She was a contender in the 2020 cycle and before Joe Biden's comeback in South Carolina, looked like someone who could possibly be nominated. In 2021, the Senator successfully battled breast cancer. If elected Governor, Klobuchar will be able to pick her own replacement to the Senate. It probably will not be Tim Walz, although that would be an interesting story.

 

I should mention that at the present time in Minnesota politics, women are dominating the statewide political scene. Both major party nominees for Governor and for U.S. Senate, to replace another woman, are women. Perhaps, the political problems of Walz and before that the scandal induced resignation of Democrat U.S. Senator Al Franken.have ruined things for male politicians. Klobuchar could seek to remedy that by picking a guy for the Senate vacancy. In Minnesota, candidates pick their Lt. Governor running-mates before the primary and then run on a ticket with them. She did pick a male in former Fergus Falls Mayor Ben Schierer.

 

Republicans had a more crowded field, first to take on Walz and then for the open race. The 2022 nominee Scott Jensen was running for a time again and then switched to run for State Auditor. A former St. Cloud City Councilman named Jeff Johnson ran and withdrew, but he is not the same person as the Jeff Johnson was the 2014 and 2018 Republican nominee for Governor. That Jeff Johnson did not run this year.

 

There would be a grand total of 7 Republican candidates for Governor who appeared ballot earlier this month and interestingly enough the candidate who had Donald Trump's "complete and total endorsement" finished in second place with about 33 percent of the vote. That would be the infamous "My Pillow" guy Mike Lindell. The businessman, who battled serve drug addiction as an adult before finding religion, had some years ago become a very frequent television ad pitchmen for his pillow products, which some people swear by. His business interests were hurt though when he became very political and at times caustic with his rhetoric. Lindell had been talked about as a candidate in Minnesota for several cycles but this was the first time he ran. In his race, he teamed with retired Naval Intelligence Officer and school administrator Phillip Parrish, who had started off this cycle running for Governor himself.

 

In many circles, Lindell was seen as a joke, but when he received the endorsement of Trump, many Republicans in the state were definitely not laughing. He was seen as someone with virtually no chance of winning an election and suddenly his path to the nomination seemed easier, just because Trump liked him because of the way Lindell insisted the 2020 election had been stolen via all sorts of nutty conspiracy theories, some of which brought the businessman into court for defamation.

 

I have to admit that not being in Minnesota, i misjudged the dynamic of this nomination contest. I thought Lindell might actually win the primary because of name recognition and the Trump endorsement. I guess i have to give Minnesota Republicans some credit for seeing some crazy as a bridge too far. It was also true that both of Lindell's major opponents were black. That entire circumstance for a Republican primary in Minnesota is really sort of remarkable. (The Republican U.S. Senate primary also featured more than one racial minority and was won by a biracial woman.)

 

In May, party activists, many of whom were firmly on the right, actually delivered the official endorsement to healthcare technology executive Kendall Qualls, who was running with construction firm executive Brian Nicholson, who happened to be at the January 6, 2021 riot at the Capitol. Qualls, an African-American Army veteran, who lost a 2020 Congressional race, then ran for Governor in 2022, but withdrew after losing out at the convention that year. This year, he finished in third place with 21 percent of the primary vote.

 

While the winner of the crowded primary took 43 percent, this was definitely the case of a best case scenario for Republicans. The nominee is Lisa Demuth, a biracial woman who is currently the Minnesota House Speaker.  She seems to be only the second black woman to ever be nominated as a Republican for Governor, following the nominee in Virginia last year. Demuth worked in commercial property business with her husband before entering politics. Her runningmate is attorney and businessman Ryan Wilson, who came within a few thousand votes of knocking off the incumbent State Auditor when running statewide in 2022.

 

Again, let just take a moment recognize the fact that Donald Trump's endorsed candidate, a wealthy celebrity businessman running as a political outsider, lost in a Republican primary, with only about a third of the vote... against two African-Americans. That has to thus far be the biggest embarrassment of the midterm cycle for Trump. It does not appear he has made any comment on that result. For his part, Lindell claimed on Election Night that despite being well behind in the vote count, that something was afoot and they were trying to steal the race from him. Of course he did. Lindell is refusing to concede his nearly 10 point loss but a court rejected his call for a recount.

 

Downballot Minnesota Republicans could be forgiven for breathing a sigh of relief that they are not having to share a ticket with Mike Lindell. Those nominee perhaps slept decently on that Tuesday night on whatever pillow they use. Demuth will be a far more credible candidate but Minnesota Republicans still face an uphill battle. The polls are showing a distinct lead for the Democrat. It will take a lot to change that dynamic.

 

Minnesota is certain to elect its first female Governor this November. While Amy Klobuchar has gained a bit of a reputation for being a "difficult" boss on Capitol Hill, she has the image of being pretty 
"Minnesota nice" and folksy among the general public and has retained popularity during her Senate career. She is somewhat isolated from what problems the Walz Administration is being held responsible for, although her Republican opponents will definitely try to tie her those issues. The more prevailing factor though is likely to be dissatisfaction with the Trump Administration in a state with a pretty angry electorate wanting to make their voices heard.

 

Gubernatorial races predicted thus far: 

12 D (2 Safe, 5 Likely, 3 Leans, 2Tossup)

 6 R  (2 Safe, I Likely, 1 Leans, 2 Tossup)

 

Totals predicted thus far:

18 D (6 holdover, 2 Safe, 5 Likely, 3 Leans, 2 Tossup)

14 R (8 holdover, 2 Safe, 1 Likely, 1 Leans, 2 Tossup)