White House Race- August 17, 2024

80 Days Until Election Day

It has occurred to me that both national party conventions will have completely wrapped up this year at an earlier date than either convention even began in some recent cycles. Was that purely a function of the RNC wanting to go super early to lock up the nomination for Donald Trump? Democrats have also technically completed their major business virtually, without a legitimate legal reason to do so. There was a movement to lock things up for Joe Biden when he seemed vulnerable and then a movement to quickly secure the nomination for Kamala Harris after that.

In any event, Monday will see Democrats gather in Chicago  There will likely be pretty positive images from inside the United Center, although I would certainly also expect some interruptions by protestors, and some ugly images from the streets of Chicago. It may not reach 1968 levels of mayhem, but there will be flashpoints, that Republicans will focus intently on. It is fairly unique to have both conventions take place so close geographically, as Republicans had theirs in Milwaukee. Something like that has not occurred since Miami Beach hosted both conventions in 1972. 

This week will be the closest I have ever been to a convention, but not the first time I have been in the same state. The last time the Democrats came to Chicago, I was in DeKalb, Illinois, literally beginning my first week of college. I have despised the Macarena ever since. I used to hope to one day attend a national political convention, and I always assumed it would be a GOP one. These days, I am in the position of hoping to even find a major party nominee for President that I want to vote for.

In many ways, this past week has been a big reminder of just how opposed I am to the potential Administration of Kamala Harris and Tim Walz on policy matters. Outside of what I assume would be strong support for Ukraine in its struggle for survival against Russia, I would probably take some issue with them on every domestic and foreign issue. I do realize that politics is about what is possible and not what is only a dream. I find myself rooting, even if I cannot bring myself to cast a vote for them in a state that will easily win without my vote, for Harris and Walz though against Trump and Vance. What it comes down to, as it has in the last two elections, is that Donald J. Trump is a truly horrible person in every regard. Even if I agreed with all of his policy positions (and I disagree with nearly all of them to some extent too), I cannot get past that. He is not worthy of being President. He is not worthy of being a Governor, a Mayor, a night manager at  Costco, or the captain of a prison softball team. Once that realization occurs, nothing, literally, nothing else matters.

With another week passing, Kamala Harris continued to not answer questions from voters or journalists. That is perhaps more of a political insider matter, but I cannot help but think it does speak volumes. Her candidacy, which thus far has looked pretty successful, based on fundraising and most polls, is about "vibe", and not policy. People are gravitating towards her because she seems to be bringing "joy" back to the political scene, for no other reason than not being Donald Trump and also not being Joe Biden. This is the same sort of dynamic that has continued to propel Trump politically, because he is a cypher for all those that feel anger and resentment.

Slowly, Harris is starting to take some positions on issues. She took a lot of them in her failed 2020 Presidential primary campaign, and for good reason, she should now run away from most of them. However, I feel that issue was at least somewhat put to bed when she joined Biden's ticket. Did she not flip flop on fracking back then for example? SNL had Maya Rudolph doing it on her behalf. Now, she has adopted Trump's position of "no tax on tips" (in addition to also pushing to raise the minimum wage, which is something Democrats always say), and this whole tax on tips has been ridiculously overplayed. It may or may not be sound policy, but Trump actually all pissed off that Harris adopted it is just... weird. He apparently does not want anyone to agree with him that he is trying to oppose. He wants a wedge issue more than a solution. It fits in line with how he scuttled an attempt by Congressional Republicans to actually do something to better secure the border.

Harris also basically came out for price controls this week as a way to reduce inflation. In one regard, it is a departure from the Biden Administration line that things are not as bad as consumers think. Clearly, the Harris campaign knows that this issue is a vulnerability for Democrats. Price controls are a truly horrible idea though. It is ridiculous that Trump and company are calling her a "communist", but frankly what she is suggesting would be backed by actual communists.

There are indeed a ton of policy vulnerabilities and failures of the Biden-Harris Administration that leaves their party vulnerable to defeat. Democrats continue to believe that America is more liberal than it actually is. Perhaps, they may have somewhat of a political motivator on the abortion issue, and in theory that could be enough to win a close race. However, anybody who is using a pro-choice position as their main issue is already voting for Democrats and probably has been for generations.

Whatever issue advantage Republicans might hope to gain in this election is negated though for one thing by the fact that Trump is inconsistent and incoherent on most issues. He is far more of a populist than a conservative and that puts him more in league with Democrats today than Republicans a decade ago. However, that is not the main problem for Republicans. The problem again is that Donald Trump is just a horrible, unlikable, lousy human being. Yes, he has his fans. Some may even call them "cultists" and yes, a lot of people will hold their nose and vote for him...again, but I think being a horrible, unlikable, lousy human being is a big hindrance in trying to win a Presidential. Historically, the more likable candidate won. We saw that in 2020 when Biden beat Trump.  The year of 2016 was a bit more complex. I maintain that a bunch of people voted for Trump as a "message", not expecting him to win, or even wanting to him to win. Win however he did. For all of Kamala Harris's faults, she is probably seen as more likable than Hillary Clinton.

The more coverage Trump gets, the more people remember why they dislike him as much as they do, and remember why his Presidency was not popular either, even if people felt the economy was better for most of it. Trump had a huge opportunity after surviving an assassination attempt to sort of re-define himself as less offensive to those who are turned off by him. I knew he would not be able to do it and said so right away. Indeed, I was right. If anything, he is getting worse. Some say that maybe he has PTSD from getting shot. I doubt it. He simply was a bad person before and is a bad person now. He was beating Joe Biden in the election but that changed the day Biden left the race. He and MAGA world simply have no real strategy for combating Harris instead of Biden. Most significantly though is the way Trump himself is acting personally. People who want him to win, or at least say they want him to win, are hoping he stops the personal attacks and focuses in on the "issues" but he simply seems incapable of doing that. He says that he has every right to be angry at Kamala Harris and to make personal attacks against her. After all, she called him "weird." So rest assured, the attacks against her, from every conceivable political and personal angle, will continue and intensify. Many Americans will buy them, but almost all of those people are already devoted to Trump, no matter what. The closer we get to the election and the more he hears about how he is not winning in the polls or about her she has large crowds at rallies, the worse he will get. Trump will continue to say things that nobody else could possibly every get away with. He might not be able to get away with it either.

Donald Trump is having a public meltdown day by day. This will continue and likely get worse. At times, he cannot help himself from being honest. He admits to being "very angry"at Kamala Harris. He is attacking her looks.Trump said, in a fit of pure lunacy, that she had AI'd a crowd at a rally and that "nobody was there." He continues to publicly bitch and moan about the actions taken by Democrats (of which he was not one) in which the duly nominated Joe Biden was persuaded through lawful means, to end his campaign. Trump thinks this is somehow greatly unfair and should not be allowed to happen. He should be grateful every day that he managed to successfully conduct a takeover of the Republican Party and has not been forced to relinquish it back and he should stay out of Democrats' business. If he has an agenda and a message to rally the country behind him, it should be easy to convey. He simply does not though, beyond his own personal sense of rage. Clearly, he is laying the groundwork to claim that if he loses, it was "rigged" against him. He will go to the Supreme Court and demand that he be allowed to have another election against Biden. Despite what some on the left will say, the Supreme Court will take no part of that.

There is another unprincipled, flailing, lousy person, who is not nearly as smart as he thinks, running for President. The less said about Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the better though.We learned that some time ago, he was having talks with the Trump people about maybe ending his campaign and endorsing Trump in exchange for something. Now, we have learned that he approached the Harris people to see if he could get a Cabinet job if he dropped out and endorsed her. For one thing, that is likely illegal, but illegalities have historically been secondary to all sorts of Kennedys. There is a video out of Kennedy not seeming to understand what the DACA issue is about. I tend to think that even Trump knows better what it is about. Maybe RFK Jr's history of drug abuse has really affected his brain or perhaps that worm was just very powerful. In any event, Democrats who used to want him out of the race, now should want him to stay in.

As usual, I could go on and on for many paragraphs about just how unhinged Donald Trump is acting. I could certainly point to his recent comments in which he suggested that receiving the Medal of Freedom is a better thing than the Medal of Honor. After all, those who receive the Medal of Honor have sometimes been killed in the service of their country. Others bear permanent wounds for their heroism. On the other hand, the Medal of Freedom, which is given by Presidents of both parties to good people, often celebrities, or big campaign donors, could go to someone looking "healthy" and "beautiful" at the ceremony. That is what matters to Trump. It is clear that despite his protests and the pained denials of those who must defend him, he dislikes everything about the United States Armed Forces. Such a person should never be Commander in Chief, even if the other option were, G-d forbid, a Communist. Let us continue to hope for better options all around in the future.