Sunday, October 02, 2022

South Carolina U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

37 Days Until Election Day

South Carolina U.S. Senate

 
Status: Republican Incumbent
2020 Presidential Result: Red State (South)

Outlook: Safe Republican

The race for Senate in South Carolina is a foregone conclusion. It is also widely believed that Republican incumbent Tim Scott is looking beyond his home state and could in the near future find himself on a national ticket. While all the talk about the 2024 Republican Presidential sweepstakes has mostly been about Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, and to a lesser degree Mike Pence, I think it would be smart not to overlook the possibility that Scott could be a strong compromise candidate. He is a conservative who is seen as very different than Donald Trump but who has not done anything to earn the ire of the MAGA crowd.

In that regard, there is a contrast with the South Carolina Republican who put him into office, and who ian even more likely Presidential candidate in 2024. Former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, who went on to serve as Trump's UN Ambassador, angered many on the right by comments she made in the summer of 2020 which seemed to indicate support for Black Lives Matter protesters. Senator Scott has also focused at times on issues of racial justice, but might have gotten a pass from as much criticism because he is African-American and because the left has at times been frustrated with how to engage Scott. Senate Democrats worked very hard to stymie the South Carolinians efforts at policing reform and one top Democrat had to basically apologize for the use of the word "token" in stating his opposition.

It remains very notable that South Carolina, once part of the Old Confederacy and a place where racially tinged politics has played a role for generations saw an Indian-American female Republican Governor appoint an African-American Republican Congressman to the U.S. Senate when a vacancy occurred. That is what happened nearly a decade ago when Haley chose Scott to fill a Senate seat. He had risen from the Charleston County Council, to the State House, to the U.S. House, where in 2010, he won the nomination over two sons of deceased South Carolina political legends. Now of course, there is a possibility that Haley and Scott may be on the same Presidential debate stage competing against each other. 

Scott has won a special U.S. Senate election and one to a regular six year term since his appointment. In both of those races, he easily defeated an African-American Democrat, in races the other party did not seriously contend. That will be the case this cycle as well. South Carolina and fellow Deep South state Georgia are the two locations where both major party nominees are African-American. Georgia will get far more attention however.

While Scott was unopposed for the GOP nomination, Democrats saw a contest between three African-American women. The first round in June saw a virtual three way tie. Activist Catherine Fleming Bruce took 35 percent and advanced into a runoff two weeks later against State Representative Krystle Matthews who took 33 percent. Angela Geter, the Chair of Spartanburg County Democrats, finished a point back of that and was eliminated. More of Geter's supporters switched to Matthews, a younger candidate in the runoff however. She went on to defeat Bruce 56-44.

While Matthews was also going to be a massive underdog to the incumbent, a conservative group that specializes in catching liberals saying and doing outrageous things has targeted her. Audio recordings have emerged in which the Democrat's nominee spoke to a prison inmate about a desire to have drug dealers fund her campaign. She acknowledged making the remarks but said they were made "tongue in cheek." Another recording featured Matthews saying disparaging things about her white constituents and her philosophy of "treat them like shit." The racially inflammatory remarks have led to some South Carolina Democrats to call on Matthews to drop out of the U.S. Senate race. Joe Cunningham, the Democrat nominee for Governor, has distanced himself from Matthews. calling on her to step aside. She fired back by criticizing his campaign's approach to black women.. Bruce, who lost the runoff, has also called on Matthews to quit the race. There is unlikely to be a switch on the ticket though because Matthews has rebuffed calls to step aside and it is too late to replace her on the ballot. She has attacked Project Veritas for catching her in the act and while owning up to what she said, though she said a portion was edited, remarked the the leaked audio remarks indicate she talks crap about all sorts of people and thus cannot be a racist. What a very Trumpian defense.

U.S. Senate races predicted thus far:

13 D (7 Safe, 1 Likely, 2 Leans, 3 Tossup)
17 R (9 Safe, 4 Likely, 3 Leans, 1 Tossup)

Total with predictions thus far:

49 D (36 Holdover, 7 Safe, 1 Likely, 2 Leans, 3 Tossup) 
46 R (29 Holdover, 9 Safe. 4 Likely, 3 Leans, 1 Tossup)