Alaska U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

 97 Days Until Election Day

 

Alaska U.S. Senate

 

Status: Republican Incumbent

2024 Presidential Result: Red State (West)

 

Outlook: Tossup (D)

 

Republicans have long held the edge in Alaska in regards to races for Senate and House but the margins have gotten closer in recent cycles and on a couple of occasions, Democrats have won. They are certainly looking for that sort of outcome this year in both the statewide Senate and House race and believe the combination of a strong candidate, a favorable cycle, a multi-candidate general election ballot, and perhaps some political chicanery may help them flip a crucial Senate seat.

 

On August 18, a total of 16 candidates will appear on the statewide primary ballot for U.S. Senate. The top four finishers, regardless of party, will advance to November, where the winner will be elected via ranked choice voting, where it will be necessary to receive at least 50 percent of the vote. Of these 16 candidates, most are not serious contenders. The person who finishes in fourth place in August is likely to be virtually unknown. It is far clearer who he top three will be.

 

One of the candidates will be incumbent Republican Senator Dan Sullivan. A mainstream member of the party with ties to the Bush Administration, he defeated a freshman Democrat in 2014, despite not having lived most of his life in Alaska. Sullivan won reelection in 2020 with 53 percent of the vote against an Independent, who was supported that year by Democrats. Like so many others on Capitol Hill, Sullivan has for years now felt the need to walk a line in regards to support for Donald Trump, even if he not exactly seen as a MAGA true-believer. Nonetheless, he has been a mostly reliable vote for the Trump agenda.

 

The top Democrat in this race is Mary Peltola. A Native American, who was part of the state's fishing business and who had served in the state legislature and local office, she made national political headlines when she won a U.S. House seat in an August 2022 special election. The seat had become vacant after the decades long Republican incumbent died in office and with Republicans divided via ranked choice voting, Peltola defeated Sarah Palin, the state's former Governor and one time Republican Vice Presidential nominee. The two candidates had a long-time friendly relationship. In November, Peltola defeated Palin again.. A relatively moderate Democrat, Peltola had her work cut out for her in advance of 2024 with the divisive Palin now out of the picture. Indeed, with other candidates withdrawing in favor of Republican Nick Begich, she lost her seat by just over two points.

 

With 2026 looking to be a better overall year in Alaska for Democrats, Peltola was believed to consider seeking a House rematch, a race for Governor, or in what was considered the toughest potential fight, a race against Sullivan for the Senate. The DGA and DCCC might have been a bit disappointed, but Peltota swung big and announced a candidacy for the Senate.

 
Polls have showed a close race between the two candidates. Much of the conversation over the past few months though has centered on another Dan Sullivan, a retired teacher and former U.S. Forest Service employee who announced he would be running as a Republican for this seat and eventually revealed a website with similar colors and logo to that being used by Senator Sullivan. Ironically enough, there seem to be a bunch of Republican Dan Sullivans in Alaska. Back when the Senator was first elected in 2014, a different man named Dan Sullivan was the Republican nominee for Lt. Governor. He was better known than the Senate candidate at first.

 

Perhaps understandably so, the Senator and his allies cried foul, suggesting that the other Dan Sullivan was a plant on behalf of the Democrats to try to dilute the vote of the incumbent. Peltola and her associates have denied all of this. Such tactics have definitely been used before in places such as Chicago. The Republican Lt. Governor of Alaska ruled that the second Sullivan was not a legitimate candidate and could not appear on the ballot, but that was overruled by the Alaska Supreme Court. So indeed, on August 18, there will be two Dan Sullivans on the ballot, and with whatever confusion that might cause, it will be surprising if both do not advance to November.

 

There seems to be some mixed information though as to whether the other Dan Sullivan will not appear on the ballot as a Republican but as someone not affiliated with a party. It also looks like the incumbent, might be listed as such on the ballot, as well as going by Dan S.Sullivan. It appeared the other Dan Sullivan wanted to use an S in his name too but is actually Dan J. Sullivan, There should be enough discerning information to allow intelligent voters to tell the two men apart, but there is fear on behalf of Republicans that some may not and that in November, Peltota could capitalize in the first round of voting.There is also of course questions as to how ranked choice voting might be affected by the Sullivan shenanigans. Alaska is a state that once elected via write in vote, someone with the name Murkowski, so I think we should give the voters there some credit.

 

Even without any minimal impact of the other Dan Sullivan (and it is true that even a small amount of votes could title the outcome), this looks like a very competitive race between the incumbent Senator and the one-time Congresswoman. Peltoa is a popular, folksy figure and received sympathy after her husband died in a plane crash in 2023. (So many people associated with Alaska politics have died in plane crashes.) Sullivan is seen as a hard working Senator but even in a red state like Alaska, turmoil in the economy related to issues such as tariffs and all the other chaos of the second Trump Administration might make conditions more favorable for a Democrat. It will be interesting to see which campaign can use national issues to their advantage. Neither major candidate is seen as out of the mainstream but will be painted by their opponent as being too close to the fringes in either party. Another factor might involve all the recent talk and demands from MAGA for the Senate to "cancel" its recess until the SAVE Act can be approved (despite a clear lack of votes.) If that happens, Sullivan will be stuck in Washington and will be unable to campaign in Alaska, an advantage Peltola, who does not currently hold office enjoys.

It is indeed fairly rare for someone to lose a U.S. House race and then quickly be elected to the Senate, so that is what Peltota will have to pull off. A difference though is that both are statewide contests in Alaska. Both Sullivan and Peltola will be well-funded. Typically, a Democrat Senate candidate in Alaska does not have much money at all. The polls have continued to look very close.

 

All things considered, this is definitely a race that could go either way in November, and it may be a few days after Election Day before we know for sure, and the control of the Senate itself may come down to Alaska. My hunch is that Republicans are poised to have a very rough midterm election and while they may prevail over weak candidates or those considered too far to the left, they may have a harder time pinning that label on Mary Peltola.  

 

 

Senate races predicted thus far: 

1 D (1 Tossup), 1 R (1 Safe)

Senate total predicted thus far:

35 D (34 holdover, 1 Tossup) 32 R (31 holdover, 1 Safe)