Arkansas U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

 94 Days Until Election Day

Arkansas U.S. Senate

 Status:Republican Incumbent

2024 Presidential Result: Red State (South)

 

Outlook: Safe Republican

 

There are a lot more Senate races this year that will get more attention than what will happen in heavily Republican Arkansas.

 

In 2014, Tom Cotton, a Harvard law school grad and war veteran, and who was at the time a U.S. House freshman easily defeated a veteran incumbent U.S. Senator, helping to signify the dramatic shift toward the GOP in his state. Democrats did not even oppose Cotton in 2020 and now, still under age 50, he is seeking a third Senate term.

 

Cotton is someone who is worth watching in terms of future Senate Leadership. Currently, he is third in the Republican Senate hierarchy.and Chairs the Intelligence Committee. For a time, many talked about Cotton as a potential Presidential candidate, but he did not run when he had the chance and now appears to be somewhat blocked off in the Republican Party by others. Donald Trump has overlooked him in regards to the Vice Presidency or a Cabinet position  The Senator, while widely respected for his brain, is far from the most naturally charismatic politicians out there.A national security hawk, Cotton has at times been willing to take stances on a variety of issues that differ from his colleagues or populist sentiment. Nonetheless, Cotton has spent the Trump years very much in alignment and seems more than willing to engage in harsh partisan rhetoric.

 

In early March, Cotton took 82 percent in a Republican primary against two opponents. I am not certain, but perhaps some primary voters in Arkansas thought he was not MAGA enough. On the Democrat side, the primary was taken by Hallie Shoffne, a sixth generation farmer, in her late 30s, who took 78 year percent against an African-American opponent, who is a small town Mayor.

 

Shoffner appears to be a credible candidate who has raised a fairly decent amount of money in this bid and is said to be adept at social media. She has been attacking Cotton for voting against the Farm Bill. In another state, she might have a short-term political future. The bottom line though is that Arkansas, even amid any possible national wave, is unlikely to vote for any Democrat. 

 

Senate races predicted thus far: 

1 D (1 Tossup), 2 R (2 Safe)

Senate total predicted thus far:

35 D (34 holdover, 1 Tossup) 33 R (31 holdover, 2 Safe)