New Mexico Governor- Race of the Day

55 Days Until Election Day

New Mexico Governor

Status: Democrat Incumbent

2020 Presidential Result: Blue State (West)

 

Outlook: Leans Democrat

 

If somebody is seeking a race that could potentially see an upset on Election Night, this may be the one. However, even if 2022 winds up being a good one for Republicans nationwide, it will still take some breaks before they flip the Governorship of New Mexico. A poll out today shows the Democrat incumbent has improved her position, but there would also need to be further evidence before that party can stop all concern.

There has been a pattern in New Mexico since the 1994 election which saw a Republican challenger upset a Democrat incumbent, in a race where the Green Party also did well. A Republican has served as Governor for two terms, followed by a Democrat in office for two terms. If the trend holds, that would indicate that Democrat Michelle Lujan Grisham is on pace for another four years.

The Lujan Family has been prominent in New Mexico politics for generations, and has produced officeholders in both parties. The current Governor is an extended relative, though not as directly related to a past powerbroker as freshman Democrat Senator Ben Ray Lujan. LujanGrisham was a Congresswoman herself though in 2018, when she ran for Governor and impressively beat primary opponents and then won the general election by 14 points. She succeeded another Hispanic woman, Republican Susanna Martinez, as Governor.

New Mexico was considered more of a swing state in the early part of this century than it is now, where Democrats have been winning just about every major contest. Martinez had proved though that a Republican with the right kind of appeal could do well in the state. After Joe Biden was elected President, Lujan Grisham was believed to be guranteed to have a Cabinet post if she wanted one. Various reports had her about to be nominated for either HHS Secretary of Secretary of the Interior. She told the Transition team that she had decided to remain as Governor and in informing the public that she would be sticking around, said she wanted to continue to focus on fighting the Covid pandemic in her state. Apparently, a whole bunch of other New Mexico Democrats were also being considered for Interior and Biden selected the woman who had replaced Lujan Grisham in the House.

Some news from 2021 shed some light as to perhaps why the Governor was either overlooked or why perhaps she might have had reason to want to leave Santa Fe. Reports came out that the widowed Governor and her campaign had reached a settlement sometime earlier with her 2018 campaign spokesman who said the Governor had sexually assaulted him while he worked for her. He had alleged the then candidate had poured water on his crotch and grabbed it in front of others. Members of her party rightfully thought that such a thing was a huge deal when Donald Trump was accused of it but there was not been much discussion about Lujan Grisham's behavior or the fact that she agreed to pay a large sum of money to the Democrat operative who said he was a victim. No Democrat challenged Lujan Grisham's renomination this year and she became married a few months back to her longtime boyfriend, in a ceremony officiated by Vice President Kamala Harris. There has also been a recent ethics allegation surrounding her office using funds designated for official purposes on buying personal items, including large amounts of alcohol.

A bunch of Republicans entered the race to face the Governor in 2022. One of them, dropped out and is now the Libertarian nominee, and according to today's poll, is at 5 percent, which could be a significant factor in harming the GOP nominee if the race winds up being very close. It is important to remember that New Mexico is home to Gary Johnson, the former Republican Governor, who basically governed as a libeterian and in 2016, as that party's Presidential nominee, received nine percent in his home state.

Ultimately, the GOP primary wound up being a blowout, similar to how Lujan Grisham had pulled away four years earlier to win her party's nomination. Mark Ronchetti received 58 percent in June against four opponents, while runner up State Representative Rebecca Dow received just over 15 percent. Ronchetti had made a name for himself on television as the gregarious weatherman on the local Albuquerque news. The meteorologist ran for an open U.S. Senate seat in 2020, where he took 56 percent of the vote against two others, and then ran a respectable race against Ben Ray Lujan, where he only lost by six points. That showing was a few points better than incumbent President Donald Trump had fared in New Mexico and closer than some other recent Republican Senate nominees.

Candidates for Lt. Governor ran in their own primary and are now teamed up with the Gubernatorial nominees. The unanimous choice for Democrats was incumbent Lt. Governor Howie Morales, who had sought the Governorship himself in 2014. Republicans had two candidates running and the winner with 60 percent was aerospace engineer Ant (as in Anthony) Thornton, a cowboy hat wearing African-American former Democrat. Ronchetti's website does not seem to make mention of Thornton as a runningmate, which leads me to believe he might not necessarily be considered an asset for the general election. His only previous experience was losing a 2016 Republican State Senate primary. The defeated candidate for Lt. Governor among Republicans was a woman with an Hispanic sounding last name who had some elected School Board experience. Before the primary though, a state GOP convention had signaled they vastly preferred Thornton to Peggy Muller-Aragon.

Considering his background in television news, Ronchetti is very good on camera and seems to be running as the kind of mainstream Republican, who is not talking about Donald Trump. Some post primary polls had shown the Republican close to the margin of error against Lujan Grisham, but a Survey USA poll released today, shows the incumbent now 12 points ahead. The ideological lines are similar as to many other races across the country. Republicans are wanting to focus on inflation, crime, and education, which has recently become a stronger GOP issue. Democrats want to focus on abortion and attempt to paint their opponents as extremists on the issue. Ronchetti has called for a "measured dialogue" on the abortion issue and says he believes that voters in his state would support a ban after 15 weeks, providing for exceptions afterwards. He is also saying that Lujan Grisham wants to use taxpayer funds to pay for late term abortions.

I think this race is probably still within the single digits. Lujan Grisham definitely has political baggage and Ronchetti comes across as an appealing figure, although one without government experience. In that sense, he is a true outsider, and that can work to a candidate's benefit if they can prove themselves worthy in televised debates and other settings. The value of incumbency and the Democrat tilt to New Mexico  though still have to favor the current Governor.

Gubernatorial Races predicted thus far:

14 D (2 Safe, 7 Likely. 3 Leans, 2 Tossup) 

  9 R  (3 Safe, 4 Likely, 2 Leans)

Total with predictions thus far:

20 D (6 Holdovers, 2 Safe, 7 Likely, 3 Leans, 2 Tossup)

17 R (8 Holdovers, 3 Safe, 4 Likely, 2 Leans)