Idaho U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

79 Days Until Election Day

Idaho U.S. Senate

Status: Republican Incumbent

2020 Presidential Result: Red State (West)

Outlook: Safe Republican

Statewide elections in Idaho have been dominated by Republicans for some time now. The last Democrat to win a Senate race in the state, was way back in the Watergate year of 1974 when incumbent Frank Church won reelection. He soon ran for President and then lost in 1980 when he tried for another Senate term.

There is no reason to believe Democrats have any hope of winning any federal contest in Idaho anytime soon. Republican Mike Crapo is a low-key conservative who first won election to Congress thirty years ago and has been in the Senate since securing his seat there in 1998. Not long after coming to the Senate, he dealt with prostate cancer and then a recurrence a few years later but has had good health since. Many were pretty surprised though when Crapo was charged with a DUI in Virginia late in 2012. The Senator pleaded guilty and apologized for his actions. In a state that has many of his fellow Mormons, he acknowledged that he had fallen short on the Church's teaching about alcohol use.

Crapo's easy election to a fourth term in 2016 would seem to indicate that the problem was behind him politically. This year, as he seeks a fifth term, he had to contend with primary challenges from the right, which it seems like most Republican incumbents anywhere in the country, who are not viewed as tied to the hip of Donald Trump also face. Trump endorsed Crapo though, as he has for most Congressional incumbents in not difficult races. The Senator took 67 percent in a five way May primary, which was just slightly above the lowest margin he ever had in any Senate general election. Business owner Scott Trotter took about 11 percent as the second place finisher.

Now, Crapo is facing three minor party or Independent candidates, and one Democrat nominee who should not present too much of a challenge. David Roth, not to be confused with David Lee Roth, is a realtor who lost a State House bid in 2020. He is also likely the first openly gay candidate ever to be nominated for the Senate in Idaho. In the primary, In the primary, Roth defeated real estate developer Ben Pursley 58-42.

The GOP incumbent from Idaho will have one of the simplest reelection victories of any Senator this fall and can only hope that he will be part of a new majority in the upper chamber, which would make him Chairman of the Finance Committee.

U.S. Senate races predicted thus far:

6 D (3 Safe, 2 Leans, 1 Tossup)

5 R (3 Safe, 1 Likely, 1 Leans)

Total with predictions thus far:

42 D (36 Holdover, 3 Safe, 2 Leans, 1 Tossup) 

34 R (29 Holdover, 3 Safe. 1 Likely, 1 Leans)