Nevada U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

59 Days Until Election Day

Nevada U.S. Senate

Status: Democrat Incumbent

2020 Presidential Result: Blue State (West)

Outlook: Tossup (D)

In many ways, the dynamics of the contests in Nevada for Governor and U.S. Senate should mirror each other. In both cases, first-term incumbent Democrats are facing strong challenges from Republican opponents. Both races look very tight at the moment, and if both go down to the wire, the option of "None of the Above" on the ballot could play a part. It seems like there are not a ton of crossover voters these days and both races will eventually be won by the same party. Of course, there is no guarantee of that, but a GOP win in this race, with the Senate majority considered very much on the line, would be a much bigger deal nationally than a Gubernatorial election. My hunch though is that Republican prospects might wind up being slightly better in the election for Governor.

Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto is the first Latina ever to serve in the U.S. Senate. After having easily won two elections as her state's Attorney General, starting with the knocking off an incumbent Republican, she passed on a run for Governor in 2014, as the incumbent Republican, himself a Latino, was very popular. Cortez Masto (she seems to use both her maiden name and married name officially, without incorporating a hyphen), got another shot at statewide office when Majority Leader Harry Reid announced he would retire. He quickly signaled that he wanted Cortez Masto to replace him and would put his significant political network behind her. In 2016, she defeated a Republican Congressman by a 47-45 margin to take Reid's seat. This continued the streak of Nevada Democrats being successful in turning out their vote to win tight federal elections. They would also do the same in the 2018 Gubernatorial election, as well as knocking off a Republican Senate incumbent. Donald Trump was defeated in the state by about two points as well in both of his runs. The cycle of 2022 will be the first one since the influential Reid has passed away.

Considering her historic political standing and hailing from a swing state, many thought Senator Cortez Masto would be near the top of the list for a Joe Biden runningmate in 2020, but she publicly took herself out of consideration. In the Senate, Cortez Masto has been a very reliable vote for her party. She was not seriously challenged for re-nomination in 2022, but did face a primary opponent by the name of Corey Reid. Not many Nevada Democrats seemed to be confused about the name however.

In the general election, Cortez Masto is being opposed by the man who replaced her as Attorney General, when he won he office in 2014 by a scant 46-45 margin. Adam Laxalt is looking to become a very rare third generation U.S. Senator. Off the top of my head, I cannot think of another one. However, it would be under circumstances that the candidate does not dwell publicly on.

Laxalt is of course very proud of his grandfather, Paul Laxalt, who was Governor and then a two-term U.S. Senator. As Governor, he became very good friends with the neighboring California Governor Ronald Reagan, and the elder Laxalt was said to be Reagan's closest friend in politics. Reportedly, Reagan considered him for the Vice Presidency in 1980. As Reagan was leaving the White House, Laxalt briefly ran for President in 1987. 

In the late 1970's, Senator Laxalt's young daughter was having an affair with the much older and married Republican Senator Pete Domenici of New Mexico, a Senate colleague and good friend of her father. This relationship resulted in Adam's birth in 1978 and his mother raised him as a single parent. Michelle Laxalt would also go on to have a career as a Republican activist. Paul Laxalt was aware of his grandson's paternity but all parties kept it a secret for many years. Only in 2013, as Adam Laxalt was about to run statewide in Nevada, and Domenici had been retired, did the two parents make the admission, as they believed the story was about to be revealed.

 

Upon being elected as Attorney General, the young Laxalt, a Navy veteran was considered a rising political star in the state. In 2018, he ran for Governor and easily won his party's nomination. The Attorney General had a difficult relationship though with the state's outgoing GOP Governor Brian Sandoval and by this time, Laxalt had tied himself closely to then President Donald Trump. Sandoval was among the relatively small group of prominent anti-Trump Republican office holders and he declined to endorse Laxalt's bid to replace him. Several members of Laxalt's extended family also came out against him in the campaign, saying that the current version of the politician was an affront to the memory of Paul Laxalt. The general election against Democrat Steve Sisolak looked very competitive until the end but Laxalt lost by four points.

 

Looking to stay active politically, Laxalt continued to defend Donald Trump and claimed that voter fraud had cost the incumbent the 2020 election in Nevada. The former Attorney General was unable to produce evidence in the courts to challenge the outcome of the election, but Trump would reward Laxalt by endorsing him in his 2022 bid for the U.S. Senate, which he was seeking instead of a Gubernatorial rematch attempt.

In running for the Senate, Laxalt has focused heavily on hot button issues that animate the Trump base of the party. There seemed to be some harsh feelings regarding Laxalt among Nevada Republican activists however, as the state convention, even as they were voting to endorse an ultra MAGA candidate for Governor gave their Senate endorsement to Laxalt's opponent. Interestingly enough, in both cases, the convention endorsed an outsider candidate against the candidates officially endorsed by Trump.

Sam Brown (who apparently was the great-grandson of Paul Brown of NFL fame) was a West Point grad who was severely injured while deployed with the Army to Afghanistan in 2008. He has retained the scars from his wounds and after leaving the service, started a business to provide service to veterans' Brown's heroic military service led to some Republicans thinking he might be a better bet to win a general election than Laxalt, who was coming off a statewide loss and had become a divisive figure in the state. Brown ran as a staunch conservative but had less political baggage. Still though, Laxalt had Trump's endorsement, the support of much of the Republican establishment nationally, and a large advantage in name recognition. He defeated Brown in the June primary 56-34. A former Mrs. Nevada, also running as an unapologetic MAGA supporter, could only take three percent.

The race between Cortez Masto and Laxalt is very much a contrast between liberal and conservative in a state that is considered pretty heavily divided politically. As is the case in the Gubernatorial election, both sides are trying to press issues more advantageous to their party. For Republicans, it is crime, illegal immigration, and the economy, while Democrats are using abortion as their number one wedge issue just about everywhere in the wake of the recent Supreme Court decision. The incumbent Democrat is attacking her Republican challenger for his Pro-Life views, while Laxalt is saying that Cortez Masto is actively trying to stop crisis pregnancy centers from the work they do in persuading women to not get abortions and helping them afterwards.

If there turns out to be a significant "Red Wave" in November, this will be one of the first Senate seats to switch parties. For several months, that looked like a real possibility, but Democrats started feeling better about the dynamics of the national environment as the summer went on. My sense is that Laxalt is very much in the game, but the way he has tied himself to Donald Trump across the board could trump, for lack of a better term, Cortez Mastro's nearly perfect voting record with the positions of the Biden Administration. Who is more unpopular in Nevada? The former President or the current President? That remains to be seen, but the fact is that Trump did twice narrowly lose the state.

U.S. Senate races predicted thus far:

9 D (5 Safe, 2 Leans, 2 Tossup)

11 R (6 Safe, 3 Likely, 2 Leans)

Total with predictions thus far:

45 D (36 Holdover, 5 Safe, 2 Leans, 2 Tossup) 

40 R (29 Holdover, 6 Safe. 3 Likely, 2 Leans)