Thursday, October 24, 2024

U.S. House Predictions: North Carolina- Oregon

 12 Days Until Election Day

North Carolina
 
Note: North Carolina is one of the states that has a new Congressional map since the 2022 elections. Thus, as I would after a post-census redistricting cycle, I am presenting the information specifically related to the new districts, while also listing the current totals under the outgoing North Carolina map.

1. Don Davis D vs. Laurie Buckout R (Biden 50%)- Tossup (D)
2. Deborah Ross D vs. Alan Swain R (Biden 67%) - Safe D
3. Greg Murphy R (Trump 58%)- Safe R
4. Valerie Foushee D vs. Eric Blankenburg R (Biden 72%)- Safe D
5. Chuck Hubbard D vs. Virginia Foxx R (Trump 57%)- Likely R
6. Addison McDowell R (Trump 58%)- Safe R
7. Marlando Pridgen D vs. David Rouzer R (Trump 55%)- Safe R
8. Justin Dues D vs. Mark Harris R (Trump 58%)- Likely R
9. Nigel Bristow D vs. Richard Hudson R (Trump 56%)- Likely R
10. Ralph Scott D vs. Pat Harrigan R (Trump 57%)- Safe R
11. Caleb Rudow D vs Chuck Edwards R (Trump 55%)- Likely R
12. Alma Adams D vs. Addul Ali R (Biden 74%)- Safe D
13. Frank Pierce D vs. Brad Knott R (Trump 58%)- Safe R
14. Pam Genant D vs. Tim Moore R (Trump 58%)- Safe R

NC current: 7 D, 7 R
NC predicted: 4 D, 10 R

Current total: 162 D, 135 R

Predicted:

167 D (103 Safe, 33 Likely, 19 Leans, 12 Tossup)
130 R ( 75 Safe,  29 Likely, 14 Leans, 12 Tossup)
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North Dakota
 
1. Open (Kelly Armstrong R)- (Trump 65%)- Likely R

ND current: 0 D, 1 R
ND predicted: 0 D, 1 R

Current total: 162 D, 136 R

Predicted:

167 D (103 Safe, 33 Likely, 19 Leans, 12 Tossup)
131 R ( 75 Safe,  30 Likely, 14 Leans, 12 Tossup)
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Ohio
 
1. Greg Landsman D (Biden 53%)- Leans D
2. Open (Brad Wenstrup R)- (Trump 72%)- Safe R
3. Joyce Beatty D (Biden 71%)- Safe D
4. Jim Jordan R (Trump 67%)- Safe R
5. Bob Latta R (Trump 63%)- Safe R
6. Michael Rulli R (Trump 64%)- Safe R
7. Max Miller R (Trump 54%)- Likely R
8. Warren Davidson R (Trump 60%)- Safe R
9. Marcy Kapter D (Trump 51%)- Leans D
10. Mike Turner R (Trump 51%)- Likely R
11. Shontel Brown D (Biden 78%)- Safe D
12. Troy Balderson R (Trump 65%)- Safe R
13. Emilia Sykes D (Biden 51%)- Leans D
14. Dave Joyce R (Trump 57%)- Safe R
15. Mike Carey R (Trump 53%)- Likely R

OH current: 5 D, 10 R
OH predicted: 5 D, 10 R

Current total: 167 D, 146 R

Predicted:

172 D (105 Safe, 33 Likely, 22 Leans, 12 Tossup)
141 R ( 82 Safe,  33 Likely, 14 Leans, 12 Tossup)
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Oklahoma
 
1. Kevin Hern R (Trump 59%)- Safe R
2. Josh Brecheen R (Trump 76%)- Safe R
3. Frank Lucas R (Trump 70%)- Safe R
4. Tom Cole R (Trump 64%)- Safe R
5. Stephanie Bice R (Trump 58%)- Likely R

OK current: 0 D, 5 R
OK predicted: 0 D, 5 R

Current total: 167 D, 151 R
 
Predicted:

172 D (105 Safe, 33 Likely, 22 Leans, 12 Tossup)
146 R ( 86 Safe,  34 Likely, 14 Leans, 12 Tossup)
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Oregon

1. Suzanne Bonamici D (Biden 68%)- Safe D
2. Cliff Bentz R (Trump 61%)- Safe R
3. Open (Earl Blumenauer D)- (Biden 73%)- Safe D
4. Val Hoyle D (Biden 55%)- Leans D
5. Lori Chavez-DeRemer R (Biden 53%)- Tossup (D)
6. Andrea Salinas D (Biden 55%)- Leans D

OR current: 4 D, 2 R
OR predicted: 5 D, 1 R

Current total: 171 D, 153 R

Predicted:

177 D (107 Safe, 33 Likely, 24 Leans, 13 Tossup)
147 R ( 87 Safe,  34 Likely, 14 Leans, 12 Tossup)