Utah U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

 Utah U.S. Senate

44 Days Until Election Day

Status: Republican Open

2020 Presidential Result: Red State (West)

Outlook: Safe Republican 

MAGA world was intent on getting Mitt Romney out of the U.S. Senate. To that extent, they have succeeded, but his replacement is likely going to vote in a nearly identical matter. Whether Donald Trump wins or loses the Presidential election this year, Utah's junior Senator is unlikely to be any sort of vocal supporter. However, he will also differ from Romney in being unlikely to offer harsh criticism of Trump. In John Curtis's perfect world, Donald Trump would not be on the political scene. He might get that wish. Still, divisions among Utah Republicans run deep.

The Republican Romney is 77 years old and might not have run for a second term in the U.S. Senate regardless. His very presence in that body is a fairly unique political story. Raised in Michigan, as the son of the one-time Governor, Romney had ties to Utah his entire life through his family's prominent involvement in the LDS Church. Romney went on to make his business fortune and begin his political career in Massachusetts, a state pretty much a political opposite of Utah. After a spirited but unsuccessful Senate race in that state in 1994 against the legendary Ted Kennedy, Romney was called to Utah to take on a position in leading and turning around the scandal plagued 2002 Winter Olympics. After his success there, he was on his path to be elected Governor of that state in 2006. He only served one term though, as he had Presidential ambitions and ran in 2008, as a more conservative figure than he had once been viewed back in Massachusetts. In fact, many movement conservatives (and people like myself) preferred him that cycle to other leading candidates such as John McCain and Rudy Giuliani.

 

Romney did not capture the GOP nomination in 2008, due in part to his connections to both Massachusetts and the LDS Church. In 2012 however, he was "next in line" and became the establishment choice, and after some ups and downs during the long primary campaign, emerged as the Republican Presidential nominee. At one point in the primary season, Romney reluctantly accepted the endorsement of businessman Donald Trump and appeared at a press conference with him. While it looked for some time that he might have a very good chance of beating Barack Obama's attempt to win a second term, late developments in the campaign doomed Romney to defeat.

 

This set the Republican Party on a difficult journey of self-examination. Some felt that Romney, while a likable person himself, had been tied to a platform that had been too harsh on illegal immigration or that was seen as too wealthy and "out of touch." Trump himself criticized Romney's "harsh" views on immigration after that loss. As things went though, Trump decided he wanted to enter Presidential politics himself and that very wealthy man embarked on a populist campaign that was especially harsh on immigrants, to an extent that Romney enthusiasts could hardly even comprehend. The 2012 nominee had briefly given some consideration to making a third run in 2016 but decided not to. As Trump emerged as a potential nominee, Romney decided he could not remain on the sidelines, and offered a blistering speech criticizing Trump as a "fake" and "fraud" who could not be supported. Despite his efforts to get the party to back another candidate, Trump won the nomination. The Republican tribe had spoken. Trump was in and Romney was out.

Still, many did not expect Trump would actually win the Presidency .After he did, he had a meeting with Romney to discuss the position of Secretary of State. It is unknown if Trump was truly serious or if his people were in effect messing with Romney. In any event, Romney did not give in to their demands that he offer a full apology for past criticism of Trump. After the new President took office, Romney continued to make critical remarks about Trump. By this time, Romney had relocated to Utah, perhaps the most Republican (and definitely most Mormon) state in the country. His longtime friend, Senator Orrin Hatch had been contemplating retirement and encouraged Romney to run in his place. The Trump White House took moves to try to get Hatch to change his mind in order to keep Romney out. The former Massachusetts Governor though urged Hatch to finally make up his mind, and brought up the fact that the incumbent's popularity in the state was greatly diminished. Hatch would not run in 2018 and Romney would in perhaps the one state in the country where he could still win a Republican primary. Despite being challenged from the right, Romney did just chat. President Trump even endorsed Romney in that election, which the candidate did not seem interested in accepting. The general election was a formality and years after it looked like his political career was over, Mitt Romney was headed to the U.S. Senate.

As the Senator frequently pointed out, he often voted in line with the positions favored by the Trump White House, but continued to occasionally speak out against Trump's rhetoric and actions. In 2019, after an agonizing decision making process, Romney voted to convict  Trump in a Senate Impeachment trial over the issue of Ukraine funding threats. No Senator had ever done that to a President of their own party before. (After the events of January 6, 2021, Romney would vote to convict Trump again, this time joined by a handful of other Republicans.) It was at this point though where Romney recognized that his political future, even in Utah was likely over. He simply had become incredibly unpopular among Trump die-hards, even in his home state, and no longer had the backing, at least publicly, of many establishment Republicans who had once cheered him as the party's national leader. Romney recognized that the impeachment vote put his safety at risk as well as perhaps the business dealings and political ambitions of his sons.

Heading into the 2024 cycle, there was much speculation over if Romney would seek a second term. While he has said he has enjoyed his time in the Senate, he has not had many close friends in that body. The closest of which were most likely to be moderate Republicans or maverick Democrats. A lot of Democrats in general had come to some new respect for Romney for his political convictions in being one of the few in the party to have never supported Trump and to speak out against him. There had been some talk that he somehow run as an Independent against Trump in 2020 or that he be part of the No Labels ticket (which never came to be) in 2024. If Romney were to run for reelection, he would be likely to face a very serious primary opposition. At one point, Trump supporting has-been actor Scott "Chachi" Baio said he would move to Utah and run against Romney, but greater speculation related to the state's Attorney General for instance.

 

Winning the Republican nomination in Utah is tantamount to victory typically, but could he even win a primary? Might he run for the Senate as an Independent, nominally backed by his state's Democrats? In 2022, that is exactly what happened in the reelection campaign of Utah's other Senator, the one time harsh Trump critic, turned full on apologist and supporter Mike Lee. A one time conservative Republican Party official, who had also done very well in Utah as an Independent Presidential candidate in 2016 (whom Lee himself voted for) ran against the incumbent as an Independent. Democrats decided to stand down and offer their support to Evan McMullin in this race. Romney remained publicly neutral which itself spoke volumes about what he thought about Senator Lee. His Republican Senate colleague was ultimately victorious in bright red Utah, but late in that campaign was openly angry at Romney for not backing his candidacy.

In September of last year, Romney announced he was retiring from the Senate and that it time to let to move on from elected politics. Whether he could have won either a nasty Republican primary contest or somehow an unconventional general election without the party's designation will never be known. What did happen was that a slew of candidates, including some who were already planning to run against Romney got into the race. The Senator's son Josh Romney, a real estate executive, would not be one of them. We will also never know how a Romney might have fared in a multi-candidate Republican field. One person who did run though was attorney Brent Hatch, the son of Romney's Senator predecessor, who had since passed away.

Among the initial Republican candidates, Trump's supporters seemed to gravitate towards Trent Staggs, the Mayor of Riverton, who had planned to challenge Romney. Staggs had lost a 2020 race for Salk Lake County Mayor against the Democrat incumbent, in what is perhaps the one area of that party's strength in the state. Staggs was openly supportive of Trump. Some establishment figures in Utah preferred Brad Wilson, who had just ended his tenure as Utah's House Speaker. The April convention, in which the party's most hardline conservatives held the most sway, favored Staggs, but the candidate who came in second there, was a relatively late entry to the field.

Congressman John Curtis was the closest thing to a Romney Republican in the field. A former Mayor of Provo, Curtis a former Democrat, had won a 2017 special election to go to Congress. At the time, he was seen as a soft-spoken moderate Republican. In Congress, Curtis would keep Trump at arm's length but opposed voting to impeach him on both occasions. He is also known as an avid collector of socks. With the Utah Republican vote split between several candidates who were making overt appeals to MAGA, Curtis had a big opportunity in the race, although he did not exactly run promising to be the next coming of Romney. It was taken as a given that if Curtis did go to the Senate, Democrats would probably find themselves missing Romney.

Several candidates abided by the convention vote and did not enter the June primary, but in addition to Staggs, Curtis, Wilson (who had finished fourth at the convention), and one other candidate (who finished fifth) did. Right before the primary. Trump formally endorsed Staggs, calling him "MAGA all the way" and saying that Romney was one of the "worst Senators ever." In Utah though, Trump's endorsement meant less. Forty-nine percent of primary voters decided to go with Curtis while Staggs lagged behind with 33 percent. Wilson finished well back in third place with 13 percent. Clearly, nearly half of Utah Republicans decided that a "Romney-Lite" type was the best option. 

As in every race, I also have to mention that there is a Democrat in the general election. Their party convention saw three candidates and 93 percent of delegates voted for one of them. There would not be a need for a primary. Whereas the Democrats did not officially field a candidate in 2022, this time, they have nominated Caroline Glech, a telegenic 38 year old environmental activist who is apparently known as a skiier. It is worth noting that the 64 year old Curtis, has long been an advocate for dealing with what he sees as the serious issue of climate change.

 

The general election will not be close, even as some MAGA voters will scoff at supporting Curtis as the Republican nominee. After the primary. Senator Romney took to social media to congratulate and praise Curtis and issued what sounded like an endorsement, which of course, he never offered to Mike Lee two years earlier. Curtis is in a position not unlike other Republicans who have almost certainly voted against Trump before. He is stuck in a position of not wanting to do anything to aggravate the base of his own party, and thus, he cannot be too anti-Trump or too pro-Romney. I would hope that in a safe race in a place like Utah, Curtis could be able to have a bit more courage. He probably sides privately very much with the outgoing Senator on many matters, including Donald Trump. Maybe the future Senator will surprise us starting in 2025 but politicians are too often politicians though in most cases.

For that reason, I will certainly miss Mitt Romney holding elective office.

U.S. Senate races predicted thus far:

17 D  (8 Safe, 3 Likely,  4 Leans, 2 Tossup)

11 R   (5 Safe, 3 Likely, 2 Leans, 1 Tossup)

 

Total with predicted thus far:

45 Democrats (28 Holdover, 8 Safe, 3 Likely, 4 Leans, 2 Tossup)

49 Republicans (38 Holdover, 5 Safe, 3 Likely, 2 Leans, 1 Tossup)