Wednesday, May 23, 2007

Presidential Power Rankings # 21

May 23, 2007


1. Hillary Rodham Clinton (1)
2. Barack Obama (2)
3. John Edwards (3)
4. Al Gore (4)
5. Bill Richardson (6)
6. Joe Biden (5)
7. Chris Dodd (7)
8. Dennis Kucinich (8)
9. Mike Gravel (9)
10. Wesley Clark (10)

There have been several polls released over the past week for the contenders in both parties, from the first two voting states of Iowa and New Hampshire. Based on some surprising progress shown by Richardson in those, I have moved him back up from six to five.

The Iowa polls are particularly interesting. At the moment, John Edwards continues to run better there than he is anywhere else, in what is likely due to union support. A new Strategic Vision poll out that has Hillary Clinton in third place and trailing Edwards by 13 points has to have her campaign a little concerned. Perhaps, that is why an internal campaign memo was leaked saying that they were considering skipping Iowa all together.

She probably will compete there though, as she does have the support of the Vilsacks in the state. While Clinton remains a solid favorite nationwide, her campaign is going to need to rev it up in the Hawkeye State when it counts. She may be able to afford to finish second there, and would probably be happy to see Edwards cancel out Obama in that caucus, but she at least needs to finish in second place.


1. Mitt Romney (2)
2. Rudy Giuliani (3)
3. John McCain (1)
4. Fred Thompson (4)
5. Mike Huckabee (5)
6. Newt Gingrich (6)
7. Tommy Thompson (9)
8. Sam Brownback (7)
9. Duncan Hunter (8)
10. Tom Tancredo (10)

Some major shakeups this week for the GOP field, based almost exclusively on polls from Iowa and New Hampshire.

While Mitt Romney has been making progress in most national polls, his overall national standing remains a bit of a lagging indicator. However, there is very little doubt that he has surged in both Iowa and New Hampshire, as seen in polls from the past week showing him with a double digit lead in both states. Another Iowa poll shows him with a smaller lead. Considering though his standing in both states, it is hard for me to deny that the person I am supporting for President, as of this week, looks like he has finally reached the top of the heap and is most likely to eventually win the nomination.

I actually do not expect Romney’s number one ranking to last throughout the year though. Every campaign has ups and downs and the race for the GOP nomination will continue to be very fluid.

But Romney has made real progress due to early television advertisements, strong organizations, and also on his position on the illegal immigration matter, which is very much in the news.

John McCain, who had been ranked at number one last week, is likely to take some blows by base Republican voters over his sponsorship of an immigration bill that is unpopular with the party base (not my position, I should add). So, since McCain continues to trail Giuliani in national surveys and has raised less money thus far than the other two, and since he now is behind Romney in both Iowa and New Hampshire, perhaps by as much as double digits, he moves down to number 3.

Another minor surprise in the Des Moines Register Iowa poll was the showing of Tommy Thompson, who despite some very poor debate performances, is showing some credibility in his neighboring state, where he has been campaigning actively. Therefore, he moves from 9 back up to number 7.