Arizona U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

 Arizona U.S. Senate

100 Days Until Election Day

Status: Independent (Democrat) Open

2020 Presidential Result: Blue State (West)

Outlook: Tossup (D)

Our first look at a race happens to be one of the most highly anticipated ones of the 2024 cycle. This Tuesday, Arizona voters will formally select candidates in a primary, but the general election has been known for several months.

This is an open seat, because at the age of 48, and after just one term in the Senate, incumbent Krysten Sinema is retiring. She has said she has accomplished what she wished to during a single term, but I think she clearly would have liked an opportunity to continue. Once considered a rising star among Democrats, Sinema has proven to be a very polarizing political figure. The one time Green Party activist, who is openly bisexual and agnostic, and known for interesting fashion choices, she was elected to the U.S. House at a young age and had a fairly moderate record for a Democrat. Six years ago, she narrowly defeated a fellow Congresswoman to lay claim to an open Senate seat.. The one time powerful Arizona GOP has moved significantly into MAGA territory in recent years, leaving divides in the party, and Sinema was able to take advantage. She won some votes from supporters of the recently deceased Republican Senator John McCain, after the GOP candidate was seen was seen as too beholden to Donald Trump and not willing to push back against MAGA attacks on McCain.

That seat was open because Jeff Flake, once a rising star on the right, had run afoul of his own party by his opposition to Trump  He had calculated in 2018 that he could not win a primary without compromising some core beliefs, so he walked away and his seat went to a Democrat. Later on, Sinema found herself in a similar position. In the Senate, while clearly not a right-winger, she was considered one of the two Democrats most likely to vote with Republicans and she offered opposition to some fiscal components of Joe Biden's agenda, along with her stance of not wanting to weaken Senate filibuster rules. Former allies of Sinema turned harshly on her. Phoenix area Congressman Ruben Gallego threatened a primary challenge, and left-wing activists even tried to accost the Senator in a washroom.

Like Flake, Sinema became unpopular with the bases of both parties. Late in 2022, Sinema surprised many by leaving her political party and declaring herself an Independent, although she continued to caucus with them. At the time, it looked like she was simply buying herself some time, and a probably primary defeat, to maybe seek reelection as an Independent. Democrat leaders in the Senate were non-committal over if they would back her or someone else who would clearly win the official party nomination. Many speculated if there was a path for Sinema to win as an Independent over a very liberal and very conservative opponent. Ultimately though, running a distant third in polls, and not wanting to merely play spoiler, the incumbent bowed out of the race in March of this year.

By this time, it was clear that Gallego had a clear path to the nomination for Democrats. One potential opponent was Kate Gallego, the Mayor of Phoenix, and Ruben's ex-wife. However, she announced her endorsement of him. Congressman Gallego, a 44 year old son of Latino immigrants, was born in Chicago, and went on to serve in the United States Marine Corps, where he saw combat in Iraq. His birth name was Marinelarena, but he later decided to use his mother's last name. As a Congressman, he used his military training to  help  aid and prepare colleagues on the House floor during the January 6 attack. While Gallego has an impressive biography, he has also amassed a fairly liberal voting record, and is considered to the left of any of the Democrats who have been able to win statewide recently in Arizona.

What Gallego has going for him in this campaign, is his likely Republican opponent, Kari Lake. On Tuesday, the Trump favorite is expected to easily defeat two candidates, including a fellow hardliner, Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb. National Republicans would have loved for someone other than Lake to be their candidate, but once she announced her candidacy, and it was clear she would be nominated, the NRSC and other groups basically threw up their hands and decided to endorse her.

Lake is one of the most controversial figures in politics today. A long-time Phoenix television news anchor, who had once donated to Democrats, she left her job in tv news and re-emerged as a MAGA acolyte. She took things so far, especially as it related to claiming the 2020 election was stolen, that many speculated, myself included, that she was engaging in some kind of performance art. However, it appears she really does believe the craziness she spouts. In 2022, with MAGA support, she won the Republican nomination for Governor. She was so controversial though, that she looked vulnerable in a race that Republicans should have easily won with a different candidate. Still, on the eve of the Election, she was somewhat favored to win over a Democrat who was seen as having run a timid campaign. Nonetheless, the final results, several days after the election, had her losing the Governorship by about just 17, 000 votes. Not surprisingly, Lake blamed this result on fraud and has emerged on a media and courtroom battle ever since to overturn the results of that election. Even as a Senate candidate, she continues to declare herself the rightful Governor of Arizona and has been asking a court to declare her that.

The Republican candidate, once a very frequent presence at Mar-a-Lago, has continued to generate all sorts of headlines. Early this year, she triggered the resignation of Arizona's Republican Chairman. She apparently had recorded a phone conversation with him, without his knowledge, in which he made comments on the tapes she released, which seems to indicate that people would pay her money to sit out the 2024 Senate election. The Republican Chairman said the tapes were selectively edited and he was simply hoping she would run for Governor instead in 2026. He then resigned, claiming that he could not be sure what else his former friend would release if he did not accede to her wishes.

In 2022, Lake had bashed the late John McCain and called for any McCain Republicans to "get the hell out." This may have contributed to why she narrowly lost that election. As a Senate candidate, she reached out to Meghan McCain, the late Senator's daughter in what she said was an attempt to patch things up and unite. The very outspoken younger McCain, a close friend of Senator Sinema, responded via Twitter with, "no peace, bitch."

A Gallego vs Lake general election has been clear for some time now and polls show a close race, but with Gallego continually running a few points ahead. This is in contrast to the Presidential polls in crucial Arizona, in which Donald Trump had held at least a narrow lead. Before Joe Biden dropped out, it was considered a given that Trump would beat him in the Grand Canyon State, even as some of his voters were not quite willing to cast a vote for Lake down the ballot. Now, Kamala Harris will be replacing Biden and could potentially pick Arizona's junior Senator, the perceived somewhat moderate Mark Kelley as her Vice Presidential candidate. If so, that could work to the benefit of Democrats in this Senate election.

Frankly, a different Democrat would be beating Lake by a larger margin and a different Republican would probably be beating Gallego. The issue of illegal immigration is a hotbed one in this border state and Lake will be trying to tarnish Gallego on the matter. It is true that Gallego is to the left of the state as a whole, and could struggle in the more conservative parts. He seems to be trying to embark on a strategy to move to the center, but more than anything else, he is hoping that Lake is too personally unpopular and considered too much of an extremist to actually win. Unlike the 2022 Governor race, in which the Democrat refused to debate, I think we can expect debates between the two Senate nominees and for there to be some fireworks in their exchanges. Gallego would probably like to receive the formal endorsement of outgoing Senator Sinema, but considering that he had embarked on an early primary challenge against her, which ultimately drove her from the race, she seems content to be sitting this one out publicly.

Right now, I am calling this race a Tossup, I am mindful that my prediction of a narrow win for Lake in the Gubernatorial race two years ago was a rare incorrect pick. This was after I initially predicted she would lose. It is not out of the question that Lake could win a close one if she is able to portray Gallego as being far-left. I happen to think though that this race could very well move in the Leans Democrat territory, and that Arizona voters are just simply sick of Lake. However, there is so much political turmoil recently, especially related to the main event of the Presidential election in the state, that caution is worthy for now.

U.S. Senate races predicted thus far:

1 D (1 Tossup)

0 R

Total with predicted thus far:

29 Democrats (28 Holdover, 1 Tossup)

38 Republicans (38 Holdover)