Indiana U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

 Indiana U.S. Senate

91 Days Until Election Day

Status: Republican Open

2020 Presidential Result: Red State (Midwest)

Outlook: Safe Republican

It seems pretty bold to classify an open U.S. Senate race as "safe" for either party, but there seems to be nothing to suggest anything to the contrary or that anything might emerge to change that perspective.

After one term,. Republican Senator Mike Braun is running for Governor, and after winning a crowded primary, is favored to be elected in November, although that race could be a good deal more competitive. It will generate far more headlines in the Hoosier State than the contest to replace Braun.

With the seat open, several Republicans were mentioned as potential candidates, including term-limited Governor Eric Holcomb. Jumping into the contest early though was four term Congressman Jim Banks, also currently a member of the House Republican leadership team. Other candidates backed off and a PAC supportive of Banks starting running attack ads against Mitch Daniels, a one time Governor of Indiana, in case the one time nationally prominent Republican decided to jump into the race. Ultimately, only John Rust, an openly gay businessman and farmer announced a candidacy. After a protracted legal battle, Rust would be removed from the ballot after failing to meet provisions in regards to having voted in the state's last two Republican primaries.

 

Now age 45, Banks first made some national headlines, when as a State Senator, he was deployed to serve in Afghanistan as a member of the Navy Reserve. Banks' wife temporarily took over the State Senate seat. While the service of Banks in Afghanistan, as a supply officer, is clearly admirable, and he has focused on it heavily during his campaigns, some his supporters have inaccurately claimed that he had served in combat. His military service has been cited by allies as he became known in the House for being one of the leading Republicans opposed to U.S. military aid to Ukraine. Banks has been very much in line with the hardline group of Congressional Republicans, and if as expected, he moved up tot the Senate, he will probably present at least a major stylistic contrast with the state's other Republican Senator Todd Young, who has not done much to play up allegiance to Donald Trump.

 

Indiana has become a very red state, even though a Democrat had held this seat for a term before Braun's 2018 election. The party did not seem to be too interested in seriously contesting this race. The winner of the primary was psychologist  Valerie McCray, who became the first African-American woman to be nominated for the U.S. Senate in the state. Two years earlier, McCray had been a Senate candidate who was disqualified from the ballot prior to a primary. This year, she easily won by a 36 point margin over Marc Carmichael, who had been elected to the Indiana House way back in 1986 and who served there until 1991, and who had last lost a Congressional race by a large margin in 1996. Both candidates ran as progressives, but seemed to emphasize support for Ukraine.

A Democrat with some political profile and resources could have potentially at least provided a greater challenge to the ideologically doctrinaire and somewhat dour Congressman Banks, but McCray seems to be more of a sacrificial lamb. You can pretty much take this prediction to the Banks.

 

U.S. Senate races predicted thus far:

5 D  (3 Safe, 1 Likely, 1 Tossup)

2 R  (1 Safe, 1 Leans)

Total with predicted thus far:

33 Democrats (28 Holdover, 3 Safe, 1 Likely, 1 Tossup)

40 Republicans (1 Safe, 1 Leans, 38 Holdover)