Saturday, October 31, 2009

U.S. House Special Elections

Tomorrow, this blog will present its final look at this Tuesday's two Gubernatorial elections and make final predictions. However, Election Day 2009 will also see two special elections for the U.S. House due to incumbents, one a Democrat, and one a Republican, taking sub-Cabinet level jobs with the Obama Administration.

I keep it a policy to never examine U.S. House races before making the predictions, as it would be tough to decide which of the 435 to choose, and I certainly cannot do them all, so I am just going to present predictions.

It is a good thing I waited until the Saturday before Election Day though, because there have been some pretty dramatic events in one very closely watched House race that have changed, perhaps more than one level, what my prediction would have otherwise been.


10. (vacant upon the resignation of Ellen Tauscher- D)
Won by Obama in 2008 with 65% of the vote

Likely Democrat

New York

23. (vacant upon the resignation of John McHugh- R)
Won by Obama in 2008 with with 52% of the vote

Leans Republican*

The candidate backed by the Republican Party will appear on the ballot as an Independent, as the official Republican candidate has now dropped out of the race, but will still appear on the ballot. The Independent has pledged to serve in Congress as a Republican.