Sunday, October 19, 2008

U.S. Senate Race Updated Predictions

Current total:

51 Democrats (29 officially, 2 unofficially)
49 Republicans

Holdover tally:

39 Democrats
26 Republicans

AL- Safe Republican
AK- Tossup (R)- change from Leans R
AR- Safe Democrat
CO- Leans Democrat- change from Tossup (D)
DE- Safe Democrat
GA- Leans Republican- change from Safe R
ID- Safe Republican
IL- Safe Democrat
IA- Safe Democrat
KS- Likely Republican
KY- Leans Republican- change from Likely R
LA- Leans Democrat - change from Tossup (R)
ME- Likely Republican
MA- Safe Democrat
MI- Safe Democrat
MN- Tossup (R)- change from Leans R
MS A- Safe Republican
MS B- Leans Republican
MT- Safe Democrat
NE- Safe Republican
NH- Tossup (D)
NJ- Likely Democrat- change from Leans D
NM- Likely Democrat
NC- Tossup (R)- change from Leans R
OK- Safe Republican
OR- Tossup (D)- change from Tossup (R)
RI- Safe Democrat
SC- Likely Republican
SD- Safe Democrat
TN- Safe Republican
TX- Leans Republican- change from Likely R
VA- Likely Democrat
WV- Safe Democrat
WY A- Safe Republican
WY B- Safe Republican

Predicted Senate total:

56 Democrats
44 Republicans

Frankly, Republicans will feel fortunate if it turns out 56-44. A few other seats could fall the Democrats way, although it might be hard for them to actually get to the filibuster proof 60. Additionally, I also maintain that the holdover seat held by Joe Lieberman will be associated with Republicans next year, whether McCain or Obama is elected President. So, 55-45 Blue Team is a real possibility.

Governor Races Updates and Final Predictions

With over two weeks to go, it is possible that my take on these races will change, but that is pretty unlikely. So here is the rundown, and here is what I will predict-

Current total:

28 Democrats
22 Republicans

Holdover Tally:

22 Democrats
17 Republicans

DE- Safe Democrat (change from Leans Democrat)
IN -Leans Republican
MO- Likely Democrat (change from Leans Democrat)
MT- Safe Democrat
NH- Safe Democrat
NC- Tossup (R)
ND- Safe Republican
UT- Safe Republican
VT- Likely Republican
WA- Tossup (D)
WV- Safe D

Predicted total:

28 Democrats
22 Republicans

No change

So, with only two races really competitive, it looks like we would simply see Missouri and North Carolina swap parties. The odds certainly though for Democrats to also keep North Carolina though and gain one Governorship. The Republicans have a shot at picking up a net of one Governorship if they win both North Carolina and Washington.