Final Election 2024 Predictions

 1 Day Until Election Day

Perhaps I am being lazy, but I am just an amateur at this and am going to hold on what I have already posted. This Presidential race looks so close that I have continued to be mostly focused on the polls regarding that contest. The Gubernatorial races all seem status quo and I do not really feel like changing anything on my Senate picks. Once again though, I am being very stubborn in saying that Sherrod Brown holds on in Ohio. I think he may do so barely, and it could take weeks there until we know. If I am wrong about any Senate race, it is most likely to be Brown vs. Moreno in the Buckeye State.

I have not really bothered to try to research the House races I have called Tossups. Perhaps, I could have changed my Alaska prediction to favor a Republican pickup or found a couple additional Democrat pickups in California, but I am just going to roll with what I have and let the political chips fall where they may...

Presidency

Kamala Harris and Tim Walz (D)- 276 Electoral Votes

Donald Trump and JD Vance (R)-  262 Electoral Votes

 

Governors

 

23 Democrats  (20 Holdover, 2 Likely, 1 Leans)

27 Republicans (19 Holdover, 2 Safe, 4 Likely, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup)

 

NO NET CHANGE

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U.S. Senate

 

49 Democrats (28 Holdover, 10 Safe, 4 Likely, 3 Leans, 4 Tossup)

51 Republicans (38 Holdover, 7 Safe, 2 Likely, 3 Leans, 1 Tossup)

 

REPUBLICAN NET GAIN OF TWO SEATS

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U.S. House

 

220 D (131 Safe, 44 Likely, 29 Leans, 16 Tossup)

215 R (121 Safe, 57 Likely, 22 Leans, 15 Tossup)

 

DEMOCRAT NET GAIN OF SIX SEATS

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Cumulative Result History:

2006: 482-22 (96%)
2008: 462-19 (96%)
2010: 482-27 (95%)
2012: 452-27 (94%)
2014: 494-13 (97%)
2016: 469-12 (98%) 

2018: 487-18 (96%)  

2020: 459-22 (95%) 

2022: 487-19 (96%)