New Jersey Governor Race

New Jersey Governor

 

Status: Democrat Open

2024 Presidential Result: Blue State (East)

 

Outlook: Leans Democrat

 

Out year elections in New Jersey and Virginia always take on exceeded proportions for those that follow politics, as they serve as a sort of kickoff event of national midterms. I will start with the race in the state that comes first alphabetically of the two, although this contest is expected to finish a bit closer than the one in the Old Dominion.

 

For all intents and purposes, Democrats should be feeling great about keeping the Governorship of New Jersey during a time where Donald Trump has presided over a tumultuous several months in office and with polls showing that he is very unpopular at large. New Jersey is a blue state after all as well, but last fall, Trump did far better there than many expected in only losing the Garden State by six points. Four years ago, Democrats had expected an easy reelection for incumbent Governor Phil Murphy, but he only wound up winning by three points.

 

There is something going on in New Jersey statewide that is confounding conventional wisdom. There is a sense that there has been some momentum in recent months towards the Republican candidate for Governor here and that this is an election that will definitely be decided by single digits. I agree that Democrats should feel far from cocky about New Jersey, especially in wake of the overall victory of Trump last year in every swing state. Still though, national headwinds against MAGA should be enough to save Democrats here on the east coast.

 

Governor Murphy is term-limited and his approval ratings are far from stellar in the state as many voters have complained about high taxes and the cost of living. Had Kamala Harris won the election last year, Republicans might be in a pretty good position to flip this office. There is a serious trend though of the party that wins the White House losing the New Jersey Governor election the next year. That decades long trend was only broken in 2021 when Murphy won that surprisingly close reelection over former State Representative Jack Ciattarelli.

 

Republicans have now nominated Ciattarelli once again. It is actually his third consecutive bid for the Governorship. In 2017, he finished second in the primary against the establishment choice. In 2021, most of the party establishment rallied behind Ciattarelli who easily won a four way primary, but with just 49 percent of the vote. With Joe Biden in office and Trump out, and in the eyes of many, finished as a national political force, the Republican nominee kept the former President at arm's length. The fact that he came so close as he did to knocking off the incumbent was an early warning sign to Democrats about the Biden Administration.

Now, four years later, Ciattarelli is trying to go all the way to Drumthwacket, although he has now gotten divorced from his wife of decades and is now running far more openly as Donald Trump supporter. Unlike Virginia, Trump has given his party's nominee in New Jersey his "full and complete" endorsement. In this year's June primary, Ciattarelli was challenged by even more pro-MAGA opponents, and by one fairly anti-Trump ally of the state's former Governor Chris Christie. With the once again President's endorsement this time around though, he had little difficulty, taking 68 percent against four opponents and winning in all areas of the state.

 

Democrats had a more contested primary to succeed Murphy, It featured two sitting Members of Congress, who could afford to run for Governor in an odd year and hold on to their seat, although their absences were likely noted  with the margins on Capitol Hill being so tight. In this six way contest, various Democrats received support from different constituencies in the party and different county party organizations.

 

Congresswoman Mikie Sherrill was the winner with 34 percent of the vote. A former Navy pilot, she first flipped a long-time GOP House district in 2018 and won one competitive reelection before redistricting made her district more blue. Trailing thirteen points behind was Ras Baraka, the African-American Mayor of Newark who ran a notably more progressive campaign. Many Democrats in New Jersey and around the country were relieved when Sherrill prevailed over Baraka believing he might have a difficult time winning a general election. For a time, it looked like Baraka would be greatly helped politically by having been arrested weeks before the primary outside an ICE facility in his city. However, the Trump Administration dropped the charges against the Mayor days later.

 

Four other candidates finished behind the two vote leaders. Steven Fulop, the liberal Mayor of Jersey City took third place with 16 percent of the primary vote. The fourth place finisher Josh Gottheimer, a sitting Congressman who defeated a Republican incumbent in 2016, and in Washington had emerged as a leader among what remains of moderate Democrats. Some believe that Gottheimer  would have been the strongest general election candidate among the Democrats. Sean Spiller, the state Teacher Union President and former Mayor of Montclair finished in fifth place. The final candidate was Stephen Sweeney, a one time major power in the state who shockingly lost his seat in 2021 while serving as State Senate President. The candidate who knocked off Sweeney was an unknown truck driver who barely spent any money on his campaign. Incidentally, that candidate Edward Durr, who lost his reelection bid to the State Senate in 2023 also ran for Governor this cycle before dropping out of the Republican primary. It is hard for me to see why either Sweeney or Durr thought they could be elected Governor.

 

While some of the primary candidate selected their Lt. Governor running-mates before the primary, the two eventual nominees waited until afterwards. In 2021 Ciattarelli ran with a moderate female candidate who was somewhat familiar in the state from being a former television news personality. This time he emphasized the crime issue by picking Morris County Sheriff Jim Gannon.

For her part, Sherrill bypassed the defeated Gubernatorial primary candidates and the state's current African-American female Lt Governor. In an effort to balance her ticket, she selected Dale Caldwell, an African-American who had never run for office, but had significant experience in education, non-profits and in the church community. It does not appear that either Lt. Governor nominee is playing much of a factor in this race.

 

With the general election set and the belief that New Jersey would be unlikely to elect a MAGA affiliated candidate for Governor, Sherrill has consistently had a lead in the polls. However, that lead has shrunk recently. The Congresswoman has been criticized for not being as active on the campaign trail as Ciattarelli, who of course does not also have a job on Capitol Hill. She is also said to be running a very cautious campaign that has had some difficulty in generating a lot of enthusiasm among black and Hispanic voters, two groups that Trump had inroads among in 2024 in places like New Jersey. Ciattarelli comes across as telegenic and smooth on the campaign trail. 

 

While Sherrill has made much use out of her background as a Navy veteran and her service overseas s a helicopter pilot, Republicans have tried to make an issue of her service. They dug up revelations related to a cheating scandal at the Naval Academy in which she was not directly involved but was barred from walking with her graduating class at commencement. She said this was because she refused to snitch on her fellow Midshipmen. Other allegations have been leveled against the Congresswoman related to inflating her military record, influence peddling and insider trading. The race has continued to get even nastier with the candidates threatening to sue each other. Sherrill claims that the Ciattarelli campaign improperly accessed and released her military record with private information not redacted. She framed that as a threat to all veterans. She has also claimed in a recent debate that her Republican opponent has "killed tends of thousands of people" with opioids due to his work in the medical publishing business.

 

All of these claims are pretty amazing but seem to be somewhat par for the course in today's politics. It seems as if both candidates are going well overboard in trying to smear their opponent but there does not seem to be any sort of general outrage in the state over all this back and forth and after the election is over, it is perhaps doubtful that anything will ever come of promised lawsuits for slander and things like that.

 

Sherrill has been seen for several years as a rising star in her party and right now should still be considered the favorite to be elected Governor of New Jersey. He elevation to that post will lead a narrow Democrat minority one seat shorter in the U.S. House for at least a couple of months. If she were to somehow lose this race, it is unlikely she will have much of a political future at all. By the same token, Ciattarelli is almost certainly not going to be a viable candidate for Governor on a fourth try, if he loses another election. 

 

Some polls this month have the Democrat ahead in the neighborhood of five to seven points, which is down a bit from what many had expected at this point. As we have seen in recent cycles, there are a lot of pro-Republican polling outfits that show better numbers for their party. One of those polls show the race in a virtual dead heat with Sherrill ahead 45-44. Many scoff at those sort of polls but it cannot be ignored that New Jersey wound up closer than the polls suggested in both 2021 and 2024 and that the Trump vote has been consistently underestimated in many polls.

 

All things considered though, including the desire of the state for change after eight years of a Democrat as Governor, I still believe that national politics will play a part. Trump has his ardent backers who will be with him no matter but as we have seen, not all of those voters will necessarily show up to support a different candidate that is not Trump. Ciattarelli is gambling that running as a pro-Trump candidate will be a plus, even in a state that has not voted Republican for President in decades. That might just be too much of an ask. The daily headlines about government shutdowns and the destruction of the White House complex to build a ballroom and all the rest have to be at least a drag on any candidate in a place like New Jersey who figuratively or literally puts on a red hat. I mean, it has to be right? Political betting markets have consistently stood by a prediction of a Democrat hold. It just may be that when the votes are counted, this will be not as close as many think

 

However, I expect Sherrill will win the Governorship by just slightly more than Kamala Harris did in this state last year.