California Governor- Race of the Day

92 Days Until Election Day

California Governor

Status: Democrat Incumbent

2020 Presidential Result: Blue State (West)

Outlook: Likely Democrat

Gone are the days when the race to be Chief Executive of the most populous state would be one of the marquee items to follow during a midterm election. California is a very solid blue state and I am being very cautious in calling this race "Likely Democrat" for now. As is the case in Arkansas, this could easily be a blowout. There has not been much polling though and the incumbent seems to not even be paying much attention to this contest, but is instead trying to focus on enhancing his national reputation, in advance of a potential 2024 Presidential bid. That is with the assumption that the soon to be 80 year Joe Biden will not run for a second term, despite his public insistence that he will.

Less than a year ago, in September, there was a lot of attention fixated on California when Democrat incumbent Gavin Newsom became the second ever Governor to survive a recall election. In doing so, he avoided the fate of one of his Democrat predecessors early in this century. For a time, it looked like at least a remote possibility that frustrated voters could vote to recall Newsom. It was notable that no other Democrat was mounting a credible effort to try to replace him, if he were recalled, leaving open the possibility that a Republican might have taken over. Controversial talk radio host and writer Larry Elder, a one time libertarian turned conservative Republican easily won the question on whom would have replaced Newsom, and would have been the state's first black Governor. Alas though, the recall question itself failed with a stronger than expected 62 percent margin.

Now, Newsom is seeking his second official term as Governor and clearly has had his political hand strengthened by beating back the recall.He has long been mentioned as somebody who might have Presidential ambitions, but his governance of the state has been rocky at times, and he was especially criticized for hypocrisy after being photographed dining maskless as an ultra-pricy restaurant after he had imposed strict Covid related regulations on the state. No profile of Newsom, now remarried, can be complete without pointing out that he began the major portion of his political life, as Mayor of San Francisco, while married to Kimberly Guilfoyle, a former prosecutor and legal television personality. That half of the one time Democrat power couple is now engaged to Donald Trump Jr.

 

Newsom's strong recall showing, which also included voters opposed in principle to a recount, has had the effect of driving away potential challengers in both parties who had any sort of statewide profile. Elder did not run, nor did recall candidate Caitlyn Jenner, or some of the more serious-minded or potentially more electoral promising Republicans. Conventional wisdom is that Newsom has a clear path to four more years in Sacramento, if he intends to serve out a full second term.

 

The rules in California are such that all candidates run together in a "jungle primary", and the top two in June, regardless of party advance to the general election. Newsom finished first of course with 56 percent of the statewide primary vote. It was more of an open question whom he might wind up facing. There was some speculation that Michael Shellenberger, an author running as a political centrist and outsider could be the opponent. He seemed to mostly focus on criticizing the liberal incumbent on issues like homelessness and quality of life issues. However, the Independent Shellenberger turned out to be more of an internet discussion than vote-getter  and he took just 4 percent.

Advancing to the general election, with 18 percent of the primary vote, was Republican Brian Dahle, a farmer from the mostly Republican rural northeast part of the state. A State Senator now, Dahle had been Minority Leader in the State Assembly. His wife succeeded him in representing the district when he moved up to the State Senate. The GOP nominee is far from known statewide, which of course will make raising money and winning close to impossible, but he is not someone who is considered to be too far out on the fringe or likely to embarrass the party. That might set him up to win anti-Newsom protest votes, even if those voters do not know a lot about Dahle. He will be the only other option on the ballot.

The Republican is conservative enough on issues like abortion and guns which helped him get enough support within the party to make it to the general election round. After the overturn of Roe vs. Wade though, Democrats are focusing on social issues and the relevance it has in Gubernatorial races. Dahle has said that the status of abortion being legal in California will not change if he is Governor, but that still has the potential to be a potent issue in liberal California, even among some voters who might have problems with Newsom. Dahle is trying to keep the focus on the economy and issues like crime and inflation.

Newsom's campaign account is hefty enough to bury Dahle in an advertising war, but the past month has seen the California Governor begin embarking on a different course. His reelection campaign has begun running ads, both on television and in print, targeting prominent Republican Governors, also of large states.  Ron DeSantis of Florida and Greg Abbott of Texas, are like Newsom, both favored to win reelection this November, but both, especially DeSantis could be potential Presidential opponents for the Californian as well.

This is a somewhat risky use of resources and the potential optics of a candidate looked past a current election for a bigger stage, but many Democrats nationwide are applauding the aggressiveness of Newsom and his attempts to frame the debate about "freedom" from a liberal or progressive standpoint. It could well be a preview of how the party will attempt to keep the White House in 2024, with or without Newsom leading the ticket.

Gubernatorial Races predicted thus far:

2 D (1 Likely. 1 Leans) , 3 R (1 Safe, 2 Likely)

Total with predictions thus far:

8 D (6 Holdovers,  1 Likely, 1 Leans),  11 R (8 Holdovers, 1 Safe, 2 Likely)