Thursday, August 02, 2012

Delaware U.S. Senate Race

Race of the Day

Delaware U.S. Senate

August 2, 2012
96 Days Until Election Day

Status: Democrat Incumbent
2008 Presidential Result: Blue State (East)

Outlook: Safe Democrat

There is little doubt that Republicans blew a golden opportunity to win a U.S. Senate seat in the First State two years ago. Had then Congressman Mike Castle been nominated instead of the late-surging and controversial surprise winner Christine O'Donnell, there currently would be one more Republican in the Senate, and the GOP would be one seat closer to winning a Senate majority this year.

While there was some speculation that O'Donnell would make another quixotic race for the Senate in 2012, she has not run and the party is looking to rebuild in the wake of the debacle two years earlier. It is also probably accurate to say that had she been nominated this year, she would probably do better than the candidate the party will put this cycle against incumbent Democrat Tom Carper.

If there was ever a time to nominate O'Donnell (as was the case when she was also the party's nominee for the Senate against an incumbent four years ago), it would have been this year, as she could have been free to campaign as herself without any real anticipation for victory. The entire party though in the state suffered over the fractured party two years ago and ever since then, there was never any chance that Carper, who has been elected statewide numerous times, including as a Congressman and Governor before first coming to the Senate after the 2000 elections, could be threatened. Carper faces only nominal primary opposition before he is formally nominated in September.

The Republican nominee this year will eventually be businessman Kevin Wade, who unsuccessfully sought his party's nomination for the state's lone Congressional seat in 2010. This race will be called early on Election Night and will receive scant attention amid all the other political action that evening.

Wade campaign link: (he is not a witch either!)

2012 U.S. Senate races predicted thus far: 3 D, 1 R
Predicted U.S. Senate Balance of Power thus far: 33 D, 38 R