Arizona U.S. Senate- Race of the Day
As seen by this past Tuesday's primary results, the endorsement of Donald Trump can make all the difference, at least in multi-candidate Republican fields, in places like Arizona. However, the Trumpist backed candidates who won several statewide primaries may have less political appeal than the former President himself. As is the case in the Gubernatorial contest, Republicans across the country seem to be convinced that any degree of a red wave is going to lead to a pickup in Arizona, as the party vies for a Senate majority. With a normal nominee, that could be a very probable outcome this November, but I just think the new Republican nominee is too weird to win statewide and there will be much GOP buyer's remorse in the state about missed opportunities.
The fact is that the one dominant Arizona Republican Party has not won a U.S. Senate race in the past two tries. The last time was 2016 when John McCain was reelected for the final time. Since then, the party has changed substantially, though McCain did have to fend off pre-MAGA primary challenges in his latter terms. Trump won the state in the same year of 2016 with 48 percent of the vote and then was edged out by Joe Biden four years later, although he and many of his followers continue to insist that fraud took place in Arizona and elsewhere.
In the meantime, the once promising political career of Congresswoman Martha McSally was dealt a major setback when she lost a 2018 Senate race she had initially been favored to win to Democrat Kirsten Sinema. Trump had turned on McCain in a major way, and continued the grudge even after the Senator's death and McSally found herself in an awkward position of not wanting to disagree with Trump on the matter. That cost her the votes of many previous Republican voters. McSally got a break when she was appointed to fill what had been McCain's Senate seat, but then lost a special election in 2020 to Democrat Mark Kelly.
Kelly is now seeking a full six year Senate term. A retired Navy captain and former astronaut Kelly was a first time candidate, and not much was known about his political views across the spectrum when he began his campaign. In fact, Kelly had at least nominally been a Republican at one point. What he was best known for though was being the husband of former Congresswoman Gabby Giffords. In 2011, the Democrat, considered a potential future statewide contender, was nearly killed by a would be assassin's bullet during a mass shooting that also killed and wounded others .Giffords recovered to an incredible expense but was left with physical and speech limitations. She eventually resigned her seat in Congress. Her husband continued as her caretaker and the couple started a pro-gun control organization, that of course typically backed Democrats, but tried to keep avenues open with some Republicans as well.
In announcing his Senate campaign, Kelly raised tremendous amounts of money and stakes out positions in line with national Democrats, although he promised to be a moderate voice. His victory seemed to be one mostly due to personal favorability as he outpaced Biden in the state. That is contrast to several other battleground states in which Biden ran ahead of his Democrat ticket-mates.
Since joining the Senate, the shaved head Kelly has been mostly low key but typically a reliable vote for his party. That could be a bit of a vulnerability as he seems reelection just two years after a special election victory in a purple state. Sinema, Arizona's senior Senator, is much more known for her political independence from party leaders and has in fact become quite unpopular among Democrats. One area where Kelly has expressed disappointment with the Biden Administration is on the issue of the southern border. That is an important issue in Arizona and it would be hard for a Democrat to win a federal election without addressing the concerns of the voters. You can be certain though that Republicans will use the issue of a "crisis at the border" against Kelly.
A long list of Republicans considered tossing their hat in the ring for the right to take on Kelly in what looked like the best opportunity during a midterm election to end his Senate service. Eventually, five candidates made it to the primary ballot and the winner was one of the latest to get into the contest.
Initially, a favorite for the nomination was thought to be state Attorney General Mark Brnovich, who had experienced statewide political success and hit all the right conservative themes for 2022 in launching his campaign. Despite the fact that some prominent pro-Trump radio hosts liked his candidacy, he had run afoul of Trump himself, because as Attorney General he did not take the appropriate actions or say the right things publicly in order to "stop the steal" in Arizona.
Some in the establishment wing of the party liked Michael McGuire, known as "Mick", a retired Air Force General who had led the Arizona National Guard and pointed to his experience working on protecting the Arizona border with Mexico from illegal immigration and drugs. It was thought that his military background might present the possible contrast to Kelly and that was likely the case. However, McGuire finished in fourth place on Tuesday with just nine percent of the vote. Justin Olson, who had won statewide office to the Corporation Commission finished in last place with a mere five percent.
If McGuire was the most electable Republican among those who ran, Brnovich was probably the second most electable, but Trump had already endorsed his favorite and he ran ads saying that the Attorney General would let the state down. That was hard for the one time polling leader to recover and he finished in third with 18 percent.
That left two candidates to compete for the top slot and it at times got very nasty between 66 year old wealthy businessman Jim Lamon, an Alabama native, and Blake Masters. a venture capitalist who turns 36 today. Many in Trump's orbit had expressed support for Lamon and his outsider Pro-Trump candidacy, but some switched over to Masters after the former President endorsed him. Trump appeared in ads also saying that Lamon would "let you down." Fearing a Masters win, who ran openly affiliated with eventual Gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake and other Trump endorsed GOP candidates, some tried to coalesce behind Lamon, but Masters took the nomination 39-29. It likely would have taken Brnovich and/or McGuire exiting the race and supporting Lamon to stop Masters, but apparently there is an issue with former candidates not even being able to get their name off the ballot in Arizona. In any event, the anti-Masters vote was split and the candidate won with a plurality.
Out of all the pro-Trump candidates running this cycle, the young Masters may be the weirdest, and in some cases the most objectionable. He had worked for hedge fund billionaire Peter Thiel, who financed a SuperPAC designed to nominate Masters, (just as he had successfully done for the Trump endorsed Republican senate nominee in Ohio.) Masters is running as an advocate of crypto currency, insists the 2020 election was stolen, that Social Security should be effectively privatized, Joe Biden should be impeached, and Anthony Fauci imprisoned. He openly embraces the label "nationalist" and opposes aid to Ukraine. Sean Hannity may have endorsed Mark Brnovich, but Masters is definitely Tucker Carlson's kind of guy.
Despite the fact that his political benefactor and former boss Thiel is a married gay man, Masters has expressed a belief that the same sex marriage decision should be overturned by the Supreme Court. He also fits into Democrat narratives by saying that Griswold v. Connecticut was wrongly decided, although he insists he is not trying to ban contraception.
Masters has minimized the January 6 attack on the Capitol as being an overblown event that the FBI was somehow complicit in and he wants to reduce legal immigration. When asked this year about gun violence, he said the problem was due to "black people, frankly."
Opposition researchers found a lot of controversial writings from Masters' college days (which compared to most other politicos was not that long ago) in which he expressed some ultra-libertarian positions such as saying that the U.S. was wrong to enter World Wars I and II and that Islamic terrorism was not a threat to America. He also was quite active in those college days with white supremacist websites and message boards, quoting Nazi leaders and suggesting that some sort of Jewish conspiracy was involved in sinking the Lusitania. He also expressed admiration for the Unabomber. I realize that people may mature as they get older, but it is not for nothing that white supremacists today seem quite enthused about the prospect of Masters being in the U.S. Senate. The neo-Nazi publisher of "The Daily Stormer" gave Masters what he said was the most forceful endorsement he could give.
Just think, it was only a few years ago when Congressional Republicans went to great lengths to try to drive Steve King of Iowa out of the party and out of Congress for saying things that were frankly somewhat less extreme than what is being tied to Masters. This truly shows how Trump and the cult-like following he has on the right has changed the game.
The Lamon campaign tried to highlight the extremism and potential catastrophe of a Masters nomination in ads, but it was not able to stop him from winning a primary with 39 percent of the vote. It does not look like anyone who ran against Masters or who still has any sort of position of influence in the Republican Party in Arizona or nationwide are going to actively oppose him in anyway, although I am sure many of them believe he is going to lose.
The negative ad possibilities that Democrats will run are basically endless.Yes, there are some national factors that might keep this a competitive race. The unpopularity of the Biden Administration is chief among them, but I believe Republicans blew a chance of maybe flipping a seat by allowing Masters to be nominated. Mark Kelly will probably attempt to stay above the fray to some extent and let the ads do the talking.
Whatever Masters might be classified as, he does not at all resemble the conservatism I came to embrace in my High School and college years and still believe in. If the Republican Party is ever going to save itself, someone like Masters has to lose first.
Total with predictions thus far:
posted by Corey @ Friday, August 05, 2022
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