Monday, September 12, 2011

2011/2012 U.S. House Special Elections

Sometimes U.S. House Special Elections are about local issues and candidates, and sometimes they may be part of a telling national narrative. Per tradition, I never make any comments on U.S. House races when I make predictions (because I would then have to do it for every district), so I will leave it to thers to decide for now what one of the races may signify.

So far in 2011, I am 1-1 in predicting these special elections, as Democrats held one of their strong districts in California, and picked up a GOP leaning district in New York, due to an incumbent resigning because of a sex scandal. I was wrong on the NY race. Those sorts of scandals provide quite a theme for the races that are still pending.

Tomorrow, the Second District of Nevada will vote. In May, I already classified that race as Leans Republican. I do not usually change predictions for Special Elections, but if I did, that race is now probably more Likely Republican.

That leaves two remaining U.S. House vacancies due to randy Democrats and the trouble they got in. The first will be decided by the voters tomorrow, while the other seat will not be filled until early 2012.

New York:

9. Vacant (resignation of Anthony Weiner-D) - (Obama 55%)- Tossup (R)


1. Vacant (resignation of David Wu-D)- (Obama 61%)- Likely D