Monday, November 05, 2012

Final Election 2012 Prediction Updates and Totals

1 Day Until Election Day


NH- Tossup (D)- change from Tossup (R)

Current total:  20 D, 1 I, 29 R
18 D (12 Holdover, 3 Safe, 0 Likely, 1 Leans, 2 Tossup)
 1I (1 Holdover)
31 R (26 Holdover, 2 Safe, 2 Likely, 0 Leans, 1 Tossup)

Republican net gain of 2

U.S. Senate:

I am almost certain I will be wrong on at least two of my predictions and that the Democrats will continue to control the U.S. Senate, but going race by race, I do not see enough credible evidence, considering suspected structural dysfunction in polls, to be willing to make any late changes.

Current total: 51 D, 49 R
50 Democrats (30 Holdover, 8 Safe, 4 Likely, 7 Leans, 1 Tossup)
50 Republicans (37 Holdover, 4 Safe, 2 Likely, 3 Leans, 4 Tossup)

Republican net gain of 1

U.S. House:

If I had extensive time, I am sure I could find evidence to switch either the predictions or ratings of various districts. I just do not have that time though, and it continues to be too difficult to predict many of these races, because of all the new district lines. I am all but certain to have more misses this cycle than any before, and I only hope that I will miss as many GOP wins as Democrat wins.

Current total: 193 D, 242 R
189 Democrats (101 Safe, 60 Likely, 17 Leans, 11 Tossup)
246 Republicans (136 Safe, 72 Likely, 22 Leans, 16 Tossup)

Republican net gain of 4


263 Electoral Votes for Barack Obama/Joe Biden
275 Electoral Votes for Mitt Romney/Paul Ryan

Republicans gain the White House

If I have been overly generous to Republicans, then fact remains that the party will continue to have significant influence on the governance of Americans, at the national, state, and local levels.

If everything I predicted comes to pass, the Grand Old Party will be poised to govern as a majority party at all levels.

In words from the Book of Exodus; so let it be written, so let it be done.