New Hampshire Governor- Race of the Day

New Hampshire Governor

74 Days Until Election Day

Status: Republican Open

2020 Presidential Result: Blue State (East)

Outlook: Tossup (R)

Women have done better politically in New Hampshire over the past couple decades than perhaps any other state. Both United States Senate seats are currently occupied by Democrat women as is one of the U.S. House seats. A Democrat female also used to represent the other seat. Both of the U.S. Senators were also Governors of the Granite State previously. This year, New Hampshire seems very likely to elect a woman as Governor once again. Democrats seems almost sure to nominate one and the favorite for the Republican nomination, herself a former U.S. Senator is a woman. Time will tell which party will close this race in the homestretch, but ticket splitters in a state considered somewhat moderate, might help elect the first woman Republican to the Governor's office.

Republican Chris Sununu, who comes from a famous political family in the state, was elected Governor in 2016, and has been reelected every two years since. New Hampshire is one of just two states that has two year terms for its Governor. Sununu managed to win the office and be reelected despite the fact that Democrats have won just about every other high profile race in the state over that time. Fairly popular with the voters, Sununu won his last term, after turning down numerous requests to run for U.S. Senate against an incumbent Democrat. Most had expected the Governor to run for the other office.  This year, he is not seeking another term as Governor, although he could have.  Leading up to that decision, there had been much speculation that Sununu might seek the Republican Presidential nomination. After all, he certainly had a record of political success in a swing state. At times, the socially moderate Governor has been very critical of Donald Trump. When announcing he would not run for President, he made clear that he would support Trump, if the former President was re-nominated again. Despite Sununu's endorsement and failed attempt to help Nikki Haley in the 2024 Republican primary, the Governor is indeed backing Trump. This is despite the fact that he appears somewhat tortured on his very many cable television news appearances to point out that even though he thinks Trump is crazy, he is still the better option. I have made it clear before that I sort of find Sununu to be a phony. I did not expect he would actually run for President.

With a Republican leaving the office of Governor, a better opportunity now exists for the Democrats. It will not be until September 10 however until the primary candidate is chosen. Some recent polls show there are still a lot of undecided Democrats, but based on a lead in those polls, and establishment support, it appears the frontrunner is Joyce Craig, who until recently was the Mayor of Manchester, the largest city in New Hampshire. Her chief primary opponent appears to be Cinde Warmington, an Executive Councilor, which is a sort of unique fourth branch of state government. Sununu also held that job right before he was elected Governor.  Based on her endorsements, Warmington might be considered the more progressive of the two women. The one male candidate, who is polling third is Jon Kiper, a former Newmarket Town Councilor, and the owner of a Latin American restaurant. Kiper seems to be playing up his outsider, working-class appeal. The issue of opioid addiction in the state is a big one and is getting a lot of attention in the primaries. I will be somewhat surprised if Craig does not win the nomination next month.

The Republican field features six candidates, but only two are seen as viable. One of them is Chuck Morse, the former State Senate President. Two years ago, Morse narrowly lost a U.S. Senate primary to a candidate who ran to his right and who had feuded with Sununu. Having been stung as the "establishment choice", Morse has seemed to move to the right in this primary just two years later and was a vocal supporter of Donald Trump in the First in the Nation Primary. Ironically enough, Don Bolduc, the candidate who beat Morse in 2022, and who was considered to extreme when he lost the general election, backed Haley over Trump this year and is now also backing Morse's opponent, putting him on the same side once again as Governor Sununu.

At one point, Kelly Ayotte was considered one of the most promising rising stars in the Republican Party. Her first big political exposure came when she served as New Hampshire's Attorney General, an appointed position, and she was appointed to that post by Governor of both parties. In 2010, at age 42, she won a hotly contested open U.S. Senate seat and seemed poised to remain a national figure for some time to come.

Complications came in 2016 though. After Ayotte easily survived a primary challenge from the right, she lost her seat to then Governor Maggie Hassan by just over 1,000 votes. During that campaign, Ayotte first had to defend her support for the controversial Presidential nominee Donald Trump. Then, after the Access Hollywood tape came out in October, the Senator said she could no longer vote for Trump and would write in Mike Pence. This likely cost her the votes of some die-hard Trump backers. On Election Day,she lost very narrowly, as did Trump, although Ayotte came closer. The only Republican winner in the state that year was Sununu,who became Governor for the first time, with enough cross-over votes.

 

Ayotte had passed on a couple opportunities to seek a U.S.Senate comeback since this time and appeared to be waiting for Sununu to no longer run for Governor. This year, she got her chance. She steered clear of supporting any candidate in the Presidential primary, saying she was focused on her own race,but once it was clear Trump would be nominated again, she has pledged her support this time. Mindful of the realities of current day Republican primaries, Ayotte has been running as less of a moderate and talking a lot about illegal immigration and the southern border, from her perch up in New England.

 

Based on the polls, the strategy seems to be working. Ayotte seems to hold a solid lead over Morse for the Republican nomination. Then, it will be on to the general election. The polls show her with narrow leads over both Democrats, but certainly not anything that allows me to classify this as anything other than a Tossup.

 

If Democrats do well enough across the board this November in the Live Free or Die State, that might be enough to flip the Governorship to their party. However, I think Ayotte stands to benefit from ticket splitting, much like Sununu did in 2016. Democrats will probably take New Hampshire in the Presidential election, and will probably win both of the Congressional districts again, one of which is open this year.  Some New Hampshire voters, who will have voted for Democrats in both of their federal races, will decide that it is appropriate in a Gubernatorial election to pick a viable Republican, in the recent tradition to which they have become accustomed.

Governor races predicted thus far:

1 D (1 Likely)

4 R (2 Likely, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup)

Total with predicted thus far:

21 Democrats (1 Likely, 20 Holdover)

23 Republicans (2 Likely, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup, 19 Holdover)