Friday, October 09, 2020

U.S. House Predictions- Michigan-Montana

25 Days Until Election Day

Michigan

1.  Jack Bergman R (Trump 58%) Safe R
2.  Bill Huizenga R (Trump 55%) Safe R
3.  Open (Justin Amash L- last elected as R) (Trump 51%) Leans R
4.  John Moolenaar R (Trump 59%) Safe R
5.  Dan Kildee D (Clinton 49%) Likely D
6.  Fred Upton R (Trump 51%) Tossup (R)
7.  Tim Walberg R (Trump 55%) Leans R
8.  Elissa Slotkin D (Trump 50%) Leans D
9.  Andy Levin D (Clinton 51%) Safe D
10. Open (Paul Mitchell R) (Trump 64%) Safe R
11. Haley Stevens D (Trump 49%) Leans D
12. Debbie Dingell D (Clinton 60%) Safe D
13. Rashida Tlaib D (Clinton 78%) Safe D
14. Brenda Lawrence D (Clinton 79%) Safe D

MI current: 7 D, 7 R
MI predicted: 7 D, 7 R

Current total: 127 D, 85 R
Predicted: 
128 D (94 Safe, 18 Likely, 10 Leans, 6 Tossup)
 84 R  (52 Safe, 17 Likely, 9 Leans, 6 Tossup)
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Minnesota
 
1. Jim Hagedorn R (Trump 53%) Tossup (D)
2. Angie Craig D (Trump 46%)  Leans D
(as of now, this race is back on for November 3 and would not remain vacant until a February special election due to a ridiculous law about a minor party candidate dying)
3. Dean Phillips D (Clinton 50%) Likely D
4. Betty McCollum D (Clinton 61%) Safe D
5. Ilhan Omar D (Clinton 73%) Safe D
6. Tom Emmer R (Trump 59%) Safe R
7. Collin Peterson D (Trump 61%) Tossup (R)
8. Pete Stauber R (Trump 54%) Likely R

MN current: 5 D, 3 R
MN predicted: 5 D, 3 R

Current total: 132 D, 88 R
Predicted: 
133 D (96 Safe, 19 Likely, 11 Leans, 7 Tossup)
 87 R  (53 Safe, 18 Likely, 9 Leans, 7 Tossup)
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Mississippi 
 
1. Trent Kelly R (Trump 65%) Safe R
2. Bennie Thompson D (Clinton 64%) Safe D
3. Michael Guest R (Trump 61%) Safe R
4. Steven Palazzo R (Trump 69%) Safe R

MS current: 1 D, 3 R
MS predicted: 1 D, 3 R

Current total: 133 D, 91 R
Predicted: 
134 D (97 Safe, 19 Likely, 11 Leans, 7 Tossup)
 90 R  (56 Safe, 18 Likely, 9 Leans, 7 Tossup)
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Missouri
 
1. Open (Lacy Clay D) (Clinton 77%) Safe D
2. Ann Wagner R (Trump 52%) Leans R
3. Blaine Luetkemeyer R (Trump 67%) Safe R
4. Vicky Hartzler R (Trump 65%) Safe R
5. Emmanuel Cleaver D (Clinton 55%) Safe D
6. Sam Graves R (Trump 64%) Safe R
7. Billy Long R (Trump 70%) Safe R
8. Jason Smith R (Trump 75%) Safe R

MO current: 2 D, 6 R
MO predicted: 2 D, 6 R

Current total: 135 D, 97 R
Predicted: 
136 D (99 Safe, 19 Likely, 11 Leans, 7 Tossup)
 96 R  (61 Safe, 18 Likely, 10 Leans, 7 Tossup)
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Montana
 
1. Open (Greg Gianforte R) (Trump 56%) Tossup (D)

MT current: 0 D, 1 R
MT predicted: 1 D, 0 R

Current total: 135 D, 98 R
Predicted: 
137 D (99 Safe, 19 Likely, 11 Leans, 8 Tossup)
 96 R  (61 Safe, 18 Likely, 10 Leans, 7 Tossup)