Illinois Governor- Race of the Day

78 Days Until Election Day

Illinois Governor

Status: Democrat Incumbent

2020 Presidential Result: Blue State (Midwest)

Outlook: Likely Democrat

As a lifelong resident of Illinois and a one time proud member of the Party of Lincoln, I have not been looking forward to analyzing this race. The circumstances surrounding it are distressful all around and I also do not want to wind up writing too lengthy of a post. I will though try to put some of my personal insight and views into this, as this is the race this cycle that I have been most exposed to in terms of media. As always, please try to forgive any grammatical errors or mistakes in sentence structure, as I do not proofread my "ramblings"

Normally, primaries in Illinois are held in mid March, but court fights over redistricting this year pushed the primary to late June. The state government, controlled by Democrats, went out of their way to try to draw lines to their advantage, but of course in a statewide race, that is irrelevant. Also largely forgotten is that the Governor had run on a platform saying he would oppose doing such a thing. This particular contest for Governor yielded a Republican nominee who might very well go down in flames, in what would have been an uphill contest for any member of the party. However, the incumbent is polarizing and disliked by many people in the state, who will be motivated to vote against him. Some early polls show a general election a few points closer than what many might have expected, and thus at this point, it is necessary in my view to categorize the race as "Likely Democrat", but I also think that by October, this could easily be "Safe" for the party.

One aspect worth starting off with is that their are tensions within both parties. This is a bigger problem for Republicans though since they are the smaller party in the state to start off with. As he seems reelection to a second term, Governor JB Pritzker denies that he has any serious beef with longtime senior Senator Dick Durbin, but there clearly has been a competition between the two for control of the state party. Governors, of both parties, typically do dominate state parties, but that has not been the case in Illinois, as Speaker Michael Madigan, the longest serving State House Speaker in history, led the party and held the most power. The last couple of years though has seen Madigan ousted from his Speakership and he is now under federal indictment, awaiting trial next year. That story in and of itself is a stunning one, but it has also left a power vacuum within the party. When Madigan was first to be replaced, Durbin's candidate, Congresswoman Robin Kelly first prevailed over Pritzker's choice, but recently, Pritzker helped to remove Kelly in favor of his new preferred candidate with the rationale being that the Congresswoman was forbidden under law to raise certain kinds of money for the party. There are signs of bad blood over this intra-party battle and it might hurt the chances of Democrats landing the 2024 national convention in Chicago, but is unlikely to really affect the Gubernatorial race. There is also some cautiousness for Pritzker in how he approaches embattled Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot who faces a difficult reelection next Spring, and already has several opponents, in what is technically a non-partisan contest.

As for Republicans, they had a beyond messy primary process, that in the end, produced a big win for the eventual nominee. Now, many in the party have written that candidate off and those who have hopes for down ballot victory in this blue state are at pains to say whether or not they will even vote for State Senator Darren Bailey in November. The richest man in Illinois, Ken Griffin, who has feuded for years with fellow Chicago billionaire Pritzker, spent lavishly trying to nominate a slate of GOP candidates seen as the most electable group possible in Illinois, but failed miserably in doing so, seeing members of that slate lose each contested primary, including the one for Governor. Griffin has said that he will not support Bailey and has in fact already moved to Florida. Bailey had his own multi-millionaire backer who spent on television ads for him in the primary, but that benefactor seems reluctant thus far to invest, leading Pritzker to have an early airwaves assault on his opponent that is going largely unanswered. 

As we look to some background on this race, Pritzker, a hotel chain heir and venture capitalist, who is the richest man currently in politics, was elected Governor in 2018, with a strong victory in what was supposed to be a very competitive primary. He then ousting incumbent Republican Bruce Rauner in a landslide. Himself, a multi-millionaire businessman, Rauner had been an unorthodox winner in 2014, defeating an unpopular Democrat incumbent. His Governorship was viewed as a political disaster though, even by his political allies, and in the end, he was no match for Pritzker and the strength of Democrats in Illinois. Rauner also now lives in Florida, and said he was considering running again in 2022, but did not, which probably did not disappoint too many people.

Pritzker as Governor has been a very disciplined messenger and has mostly gotten his liberal agenda enacted, albeit with some setbacks, such as his support for a statewide referendum for a "Fair Tax.: When Covid hit, the Governor enacted some of the strongest restrictions in the nation, although he was accused of hypocrisy for himself and his family in regards to out of state travel to second homes during those early parts of the pandemic. Many in the party now look at Pritzker's political skills, and especially his wealth, and see him as a potential Presidential candidate, as early as 2024. Some recent campaign trips to other states by Pritzker have ramped up the speculation. I would have to wonder though if somebody of Pritzker's girth would run into problems, fairly or not, over whether or they could handle the rigors of a national campaign or serving as President, or if they merely looked "too fat." It is also true that in this race for Governor, Pritzker's opponent Bailey is also quite hefty.

In this year's primary, Pritzker took 92 percent against an African-American female opponent, who accurately complained that she received no coverage and nobody even knew she was running. The past few cycles in Illinois have had Gubernatorial candidates pick their running-mate before the filing deadline, and the two are nominated as a ticket together. Four years ago, Pritzker picked State Representative Juliana Stratton, also of Chicago and the two are now running again as incumbents. Stratton, is not related to the long-ago GOP Governor of Illinois, but is the first African-American to hold the post of Lt. Governor. She gleefully purchased recreational marijuana on the day it became legal in Illinois, which was a big agenda item for Pritzker as Governor.

 

Considering the blue nature of Illinois and the incumbent's nearly unlimited financial resources, a lot of Republicans took a pass on running for Governor, even though the incumbent's job performance polling was somewhat middling. With their districts targeted by Democrats in redistricting, this included Congressman Rodney Davis, who decided to gamble, and lost, in a House primary against a freshman colleague, who was far more MAGA, and received Donald Trump's endorsement. Maverick Congressman Adam Kinzinger also said he was considering all kinds of options, including running for Governor, but instead decided to leave elective politics behind for now.

Darren Bailey, a state Senator from Downstate Illinois was one of the first candidates in the race. To say the least, he is very conservative, especially on social issues, and he (and his wife) have a long history of Facebook posts, backing up those views. Bailey's penchant for Facebook posts and videos is how he first became politically active on a large scale. As he criticizes Pritzker for being an entitled billionaire, with "soft hands", Bailey himself is a wealthy farmer, although obviously nowhere near as rich as the Democrat. The now Republican nominee is very unusual for the Chicago media market, where the vast majority of Illinois voters live. His appearance, not to mention his views, are said to harken back in some ways to the 1950s. He also has a strong Appalachian twang that makes him sound very different to the people accustomed to hearing accents of people cheering on or bemoaning "Da Bears."

While Bailey, who had at times talking about the potential of his part of Illinois seceding from the state, was likely to perform strongly in the primary in Southern Illinois, he seemingly faced a difficult task to win a statewide primary. Gary Rabine, himself a very conservative businessman, but from the Chicago area, was also in the race early, but never took off. He would only win less than seven percent of the vote and finish fourth among six in the primary.

Some took notice when Jesse Sullivan, a young telegenic venture capitalist from Central Illinois (who had lived and worked in California some years previously), got into the race and looked like he could wind up as the establishment choice. Few in political circles had ever heard of him though. It would come out though that he had supported the political efforts of Barack Obama in Illinois though back when he was a college student. When the establishment money (i.e. Ken Griffin) went to a different candidate though, Sullivan looked dead in the water. He struggled to find a running-mate to file with him. Ultimately, he ran a far more conservative campaign than he was first anticipated to and appealed to some Evangelicals. When the establishment choice cratered (more on that later), Sullivan benefited to some extent and wound up as the primary's runner-up.

Griffin was openly shopping for a GOP candidate to back but did not like what he saw. Rumors began circulating that Richard Irvin, the Mayor of Aurora (Illinois's second largest city), could get into the race with Griffin's money behind him and that is what happened. A young female State Representative, who was thought to have a bright future in Illinois politics, was persuaded to give up her seat in Springfield to run on what was ultimately a doomed ticket. Candidates for all other statewide constitutional offices were also rolled out. Only two who were unopposed won. The slate's candidate for Attorney General lost to a candidate more controversial than Bailey, as did the candidate for Secretary of State (who might have actually been a better candidate for Attorney General or Governor.) The Republican Secretary of State nominee, who won easily, is actually a very respected State Representative himself. He might have a chance of winning against a flawed Democrat opponent, if everything falls into place, but this Republican is currently struggling with giving straight answers as to whether or not he will vote for Darren Bailey to be Governor or if he voted for Donald Trump in 2020.

Many in the party were excited though (myself among them) when Irvin first got into the race, with a well-produced biographical video. I have been following his political career for years. There is no doubt that the African-American Irvin has an inspiring story as someone who grew up in public housing and then served in the Army during the Gulf War. After that, he returned home and worked as a prosecutor. He would not talk though about the years he spent after that defending criminals as a defense attorney.

Irvin was elected to the Aurora City Council and then eventually as Mayor in 2017 on his third try. He had recently been reelected as Mayor in 2021 before launching his bid for Governor. Those contests were technically non-partisan battles, but Irvin had traditionally had the support of Republican figures in the state and was opposed by major Democrats. As soon as he first won city wife office as Alderman, he was considered a potential statewide candidate, as a promising black Republican. As his years in local office went on though, there was a belief that Irvin had maybe moved away from the Republican Party. In fact, with just one exception, he had been pulling a Democrat ballot to vote in primaries. There was also video, which would come back to haunt him, of him introducing and heavily praising Governor Pritzker, over Covid mitigation efforts, just months before he began running for the Governor's job. Both his Republican opponents and Pritzker's campaign were more than willing to run those clips in ads before the primary.

A slew of prominent Illinois Republicans endorsed Irvin upon his entrance in the race, and it looked like he would have the money to spend heavily in the Chicago market and blow out his primary opponents that way. The campaign was very cautious though about putting Irvin before the media and he struggled on the rare occasions the press did question him. He tried to focus on his background fighting crime and support of local police, and did not want to engage in issues like abortion. Stories came out alleging he had engaged in unethical "pay to play" behavior as Mayor, which might have involved Ken Griffin, There was also a weird story from not long ago about how the recently divorced Irvin had a girlfriend who was arrested at an Aurora marijuana dispensary and was belligerent towards police. Her Mayor boyfriend had come down to the scene and said that the charges would be "taken care of", which lead to allegations he was trying to exert his influence, though he said he was merely trying to defuse the situation with an hysterical acquaintance. 

Then, as is the case in Republican contests across America, there is the Trump factor. Bailey and Rabine were ardent Trump supporters who claimed no differences with him. The case was far more uncertain with Sullivan, although he said he had voted for Trump. Richard Irvin however, had almost certainly not voted for Trump. There were text messages he exchanged with a constituent in which the Mayor had called Trump "racist" and an "idiot." In a crowded GOP field against avowed Trumpists, there may have been more votes to be had by sticking by those views, Instead, the Irvin campaign went in a different direction and cost a NeverTrump Republican like myself their vote (although I did briefly consider voting again for Irvin as a desperate last effort to deny the nomination to Bailey.)

Irvin continually refused to say whether or not he had ever voted for Trump beyond generic statements like "I vote Republican in general elections." He said talking about if he voted for Trump was exactly what JB Pritzker wanted the race to be focused on. There was definitely some truth to that, but there was not much honesty behind the voluminous mail pieces the well-heeled Irvin campaign sent out to voters. I received several a week, although for non-political junkies, it was hard to decipher they came from the Irvin campaign. In these pieces, it was alleged that the two major opponents, Sullivan and Bailey were both secret "Never Trump" agents who should be voted against because they were not loyal to Trump. Again, this ostensibly (I actually do not think Irvin really had any control over the campaign at all but was indeed basically a puppet candidate) came from a candidate who refused to say whether he had voted for Trump and almost certainly did not. These pieces though called out Sullivan for expressed support for Obama years ago and how Bailey in 2008 said he voted for Obama in the Democrat Presidential primary. Bailey said he did this at the behest of Rush Limbaugh's "Operation Chaos" as a way to hurt Hillary Clinton's march to the nomination, but for political junkies, that timeline does note exactly line up in retrospect.

So, how was I going to feel like I could support a campaign who was using (whether honestly or dishonestly), support for Trump as a cudgel among Republicans, when as a lifelong Republican, I am as anti-Trump as it gets in the party. At this point, instead of donating money to Irvin, as I initially thought I might, I thought I would wind up voting for former State Senator Paul Schimpf, even though it was clear he had no path to victory. The Chicago Tribune editorial board, once a prominent conservative voice, endorsed Schimpf for the reasons I considered voting for him in the primary, even though he admitted he had voted twice for Trump. Schimpf was at least running the least dishonest campaign and had some serious policy proposals that made him seem like the closest thing in the field to a pre-Trump Republican. In regards to Sullivan, who ran ads stressing his Pro-Life beliefs from within a church, I happened to agree with him basically on the issue, putting aside that it might be a political vulnerability in an Illinois general election. However, he used phrases about his own religiosity that seemed to be a not so thinly veiled attack on the Jewish Pritzker being Governor. That put me off as a Jewish Republican.

A rich Illinois political activist started spending heavily on behalf of Bailey, targeting Irvin on the airwaves, making him seem like a Democrat. Pritzker and his allies in the DGA joined in. They definitely did not want to face Irvin and much preferred to run against Bailey. I can completely understand why from a political perspective they spent so much money attacking Irvin and running ad and sending mailings which were technically attack ads on Bailey, coyly designed to make Bailey look like the true conservative choice. Since I voted in the 2020 Democrat primary (not worth getting into why I did that now), I also received those mail pieces. The issue of hypocrisy on behalf of Democrats (whether or not they might get burned and lose a race to a Trumpist) is a big component of the 2022 midterms. They claim to want to "save democracy" but are cynically playing the game in a way to help Trumpists and election deniers become more prominent as Republicans and in the political sphere as a whole. In this case though, it is at least unlikely that Bailey could ever beat Pritzker.

As Primary Day approached, and poll numbers went south, things kept looking worse for Irvin. The campaign would even pull ads for a time in the Chicago media market, making the attack ads on Irvin the most prominent feature on the airwaves. Things were moving in the direction of Bailey, and were solidified days before the final voting, when Trump came to the state and endorsed him. Bailey had made trips to Mar-a-Lago and was attempting to get that endorsement for a long time. It is doubtful Trump would have done so, if not for it having been clear that Bailey was going to win the nomination.

Bailey's running-mate is Stephanie Trussell, an African-American conservative activist from the Chicago suburbs. A few years back, she had won a contest as a listener, to get to host a weekend talk radio show on the influential WLS-AM out of Chicago. During the 2016 primaries, Trussell, then a Ted Cruz supporter, had like many others on the right, been immensely negative online towards Trump and the concept of his winning the nomination or being President. Like many others, her perspective on Trump changed of course after he took over the party. At one point in the primary season, Bailey made it seem that as Governor, he would outsource "oversight of Chicago" to the Lt. Governor.

With the writing on the wall, some Chicagoland GOP organizations, who had endorsed Sullivan, began to quietly work instead for Bailey. His momentum and the Trump endorsement would bear political fruit even in Chicagoland, southern accent or not. The final result was Bailey 57, Sullivan 16, and Irvin 15. This was completely unthinkable, at least in terms of the margin, just a few weeks earlier. A headline in a Chicago newspaper read "Farmer Plows the Field" and indeed he did. As for me, I wound up writing in Adam Kinzinger for Governor in the Republican Primary.

This was a huge victory for Bailey, but as Irvin pointed out in a somewhat bitter concession speech, it was maybe even a bigger victory for Pritzker who got exactly what he wanted. The Governor now had an opponent he could paint as an extremist, and with Griffin's candidate for Governor losing, and his having announced even before the primary, that he had basically given up politically and Illinois and was relocating his sizable business to Florida, that all the money that might have been spent for Republicans in the fall was now off the table.

In the nearly two months since, Pritzker has been hammering Bailey on the airwaves and there is little reason to believe that Bailey is willing to pivot too much to try to appeal to centrist voters. Still though, Pritzker is very disliked by many. He will continue to appeal to the base on social issues. On July 4, a horrific mass shooting occurred during the Highland Park Parade. At the same time, Bailey was at another parade that had just been cancelled in a nearby suburb that also leans heavily Democrat. He and his supporters made a Facebook video in which they offered prayers but the candidate also made remarks about "moving on and celebrating Independence Day" which seemed particular tone deaf considering the death and destruction that had occurred and with a suspect still at large at the time of the video. The candidate did actually offer an apology for his words on that matter.

 

Democrats are continuing to run ads of Bailey saying during this campaign that he would not allow abortion exceptions even in cases of rape or incest. A video from a few years ago surfaced of Bailey (then a bit thinner) saying that even the attempted destruction of the Jews during the Holocaust cannot compete with the scope of the lives lost to legalized abortion. I could try to quibble the nuances of what Bailey said, in regards to the fact that he was merely mentioning a statistical number, but politically, it is always a bad idea to bring up "The Holocaust" or allow people to claim that you are somehow trying to diminish what happened historically. I do not think that was Bailey's attempt, but it allows Pritzker, a Jewish Governor who helped fund a Holocaust Museum while in the private sector, to attack him relentlessly on that. 

The ads featuring this somewhat old Bailey video have been running constantly and the Republican nominee has been struggling to respond. He has said that "Jewish Rabbis" agree with what he said, but has not named whom he has spoken to in the Jewish community who is willing to back him up on the matter. I might be one of the only Jewish people in Illinois who is trying to put what he said in the proper context, but I am not even going to be voting for him,

 

Again though, the hypocrisy of Pritzker is breathtaking. He says how painful it is for Jews to hear that Bailey had said this, but his campaign likely had this video in their opposition research on Bailey months ago and are responsible for its release. Nobody would have heard it otherwise, and Pritzker helped fund and is probably even more responsible than anyone, including Trump, in helping Bailey become nominated. So, if pain is involved, Pritzker is complicit.

 

During the primary, Bailey referred to the City of Chicago as a "hellhole." Recently, he has doubled down on the statement. Clearly, running against Chicago and its crime and corruption problems are par for the course for conservative voters. Much of the criticism of the status quo is justified, but the Trumpian rhetoric is wrong and counterproductive, although Bailey might relish Lori Lightfoot insulting him on Twitter. Even the ultra-right wing Republican nominee for Attorney General though is saying Bailey should not call Chicago a "hellhole."

 

The bottom line is that right-wing activists in Illinois who have long called for Republicans to nominate more unapologetic conservatives have gotten exactly what they want. Now, they will have to deal with the consequences. While much is left to be desired about how ready for prime time Richard Irvin was, Pritzker did not want to run against him for a reason. A mainstream Republican would be an underdog to be sure, but at least a challenge to Pritzker. Against Bailey, the Governor will not really even have to defend his record. He will look to run up the score electorally and use it as a talking point for a potential Presidential campaign. 

 

In November, I will once again be writing in Adam Kinzinger for Governor and maybe some other races as well.

Gubernatorial Races predicted thus far:

6 D (4 Likely. 2 Leans) 

6 R (2 Safe, 2 Likely, 2 Leans)

Total with predictions thus far:

12 D (6 Holdovers, 4 Likely, 2 Leans), 

14  R (8 Holdovers, 2 Safe, 2 Likely, 2 Leans)