Saturday, March 28, 2009

2009 U.S. House Special Elections

While it seems almost certain that there will be at least one more of these in 2009, here are a list of the first three special elections for the U.S. Congress and my predictions. The New York one, which is the only truly competitive contest will be voted on this Tuesday and will receive much national attention. All of these vacancies have come about because of folks leaving their elected jobs to join the Obama Administration.

Some districts are solidly dominated by one party which is why the election this May in California and a week from Tuesday in Chicago will be obvious predictions. The New York one though will be a real barnburner. It has been a Republican district traditionally, but one in which Democrats have done well in recent years. Special elections are typically very low turnout though and with so much dependent on voter turnout, those close ones can always be very difficult to predict.


32. Vacant upon resignation of Hilda Solis- D

Safe D


5. Vacant upon resignation of Rahm Emanuel- D

Safe D

New York

20. Vacant upon resignation of Kirsten Gillibrand-D

Tossup (R)