Indiana U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

76 Days Until Election Day

Indiana U.S. Senate

Status: Republican Incumbent

2020 Presidential Result: Red State (Midwest)

Outlook: Safe Republican

Few states have shifted as dramatically over the past dozen years or so as Indiana. Once competitive across the board at the statewide level, Republicans now have a huge Hoosier advantage.

Freshman Republican Todd Young is not one of the flashiest members of the Senate, but he could be among those with the brightest political future. From suburban Indianapolis, he graduated with honors from the United States Naval Academy, where he also played soccer. After that, it was on to the Marine Corps where Young left as a Captain. He is also married to the niece of former Vice President Dan Quayle, also of Indiana.

Having become active in politics and also starting his law career, the Republican was first elected to Congress in 2010, defeating an incumbent Democrat. His voting record in the House was relatively moderate for an Indiana Republican, but when he ran for the Senate in 2016, he had strong backing throughout the party, including among many Tea Party activists, and Young defeated a more conservative House colleague in the primary 67-33. The general elections saw a comeback attempt from Democrat Evan Bayh, who had once held the Senate seat and had been Governor before that. Bayh was considered a top tier recruit for his party and many thought he would be in good shape to win. However, the political nature of Indiana had shifted and Bayh proved not to be a strong candidate. Young defeated him by 10 points.

Young remained popular on Capitol Hill as a Senator and was not assigned much blame when Republicans lost three Senate seats and the majority, during his tenure as NRSC Chair during the 2020 cycle. After that election, Young, who had typically voted to support Donald Trump in the Senate, was among the Senate Republicans who did not want to decertify the outcome on January 6th. Protestors accosted him on that day, but Young stood his ground saying that he was bound to follow the law.

There were no primaries on either side in 2022 as Young seeks a second term. The incumbent was one of the rare Republicans not to even face a nominal primary challenge while only one candidate was on the ballot for Democrats. They could thank a state commission who ruled that other candidates had not met a signature requirement and were then removed from the ballot. A liberal African-American female attorney who had been running as a Democrat, decided to seek the Senate seat as an Independent.

The nominee for Democrats in this race is Thomas McDermott, the Mayor of Hammond. His city is part of the Chicago media market but Indiana as a whole is definitely not like Illinois politically. McDermott was first elected to that post in 2003 when he was 34  years old and is the longest serving Mayor in Hammond history. His father, also Thomas McDermott had once served as Mayor as a Republican.

Like Young, McDermott is a lawyer and military veteran, but he had run into some questions about his ethics as Mayor and most recently lost a 2020 primary for an open Congressional seat. While he was once seen as a potential statewide contender, his primary loss for Congress in a Democrat friendly district sort of has to put a damper on hopes of him as a statewide nominee now. McDermott's campaign website has the NSFW slogan "All Hoosier. No Bullshit." The Mayor and Senatorial candidate also released an ad to celebrate 4/20, which showed him legally smoking marijuana across the border in Illinois. Had a political candidate showed themselves legally smoking tobacco, there would have been a much larger outcry. I went ahead and checked out the video and McDermott and the folks in the ad with him are passing the joint around and sharing it. Is that not a Covid-19 no-no, if nothing else?  Previously, McDermott had been seen smoking weed at a Grateful Dead show at Wrigley Field which was a violation of public consumption laws.

After Young wins an expected easy win on Election Night, candidate McDermott can always make the quick trek to Illinois to toke his sorrows away. (I think it is safe to say he will not need to come to this state to get an abortion.)

U.S. Senate races predicted thus far:

7 D (4 Safe, 2 Leans, 1 Tossup)

6 R (4 Safe, 1 Likely, 1 Leans)

Total with predictions thus far:

43 D (36 Holdover, 4 Safe, 2 Leans, 1 Tossup) 

35 R (29 Holdover, 4 Safe. 1 Likely, 1 Leans)