New Jersey Governor Election

New Jersey Governor

 

Status: Democrat Incumbent

2020 Presidential Result: Blue State (East)

Outlook: Likely Democrat

The two odd year Gubernatorial elections are rapidly approaching, but one is receiving far more attention this year than the contest for Governor in New Jersey. For one thing, this is a circumstance where an incumbent is seeking an immediate second term and the state itself is more dominated by one political party than the Commonwealth of Virginia. Still though, the latest polling indicates that this race may be somewhat closer than expected and that national political factors could have the Republican challenger in the game more than what would have been expected. Still, I would be very surprised if this race winds up ultra-right. For now, I am classifying this race as "Likely Democrat" but it is perhaps on the cusp of "Leans."

If Democrat Phil Murphy wins reelection, he will have accomplished something that no Garden State Governor has since 1985. The party that has won the Presidential election in each election since 1988 has seen the other party win the Gubernatorial race in New Jersey the next year. That would indicate that Republican challenger Jack Ciattraelli has some history on his side, but such a result would be a major upset. A similar factor had been in play in Virginia, going back even longer, before it was broken in 2013.

Four years ago, Murphy, a wealthy former Goldman Sachs official, and ex-Ambassador to Germany, won his first political contest fairly easily in increasingly blue New Jersey. The energy that many in his party were placing on opposing the newly elected Donald Trump as President certainly helped the effort, although then incumbent Republican Governor Chris Christie was even less popular in the state than Trump. Christie's Lt. Governor attempted to distance herself from both Trump and Christie but never was able to break through and had a less than unified party behind her.

Now, Murphy and his Lt. Governor Sheila Oliver are seeking another four years in the top state executive spots. Over his first term, Murphy had some contentious relations with legislative leaders in his own party, had successful surgery to remove kidney tumors, and like many other Governors received praise and criticism over his handling of the Covid 19 pandemic. New Jersey saw some of the most serious outbreaks of the virus and the Governor was among the first to impose strict lockdown measures. 

Despite the fact that Murphy had made some enemies among the old school Democrat pols in his state, he did not face a primary challenge this year. Republicans would nominate Jack Ciattarelli, a former Assembly member who came in second place in the 2017 GOP primary, as the more conservative alternative to the eventual nominee. This time, three other candidates ran as the more pro-Trump conservative alternative to Ciattrelli and likely split the vote allowing him to win the June primary with 49 percent of the vote. The chief rivals for the nomination were pastor Phil Rizzo who took 26 percent and businessman Hirsh Singh, who had lost previous primary bids in New Jersey. He took nearly 22 percent. While Ciattarelli was viewed as an immediate underdog, he was seen as easily the most competitive general election candidate out of those who ran. For his runningmate, Ciattarelli picked former State Senator and ex tv news anchor Diane Allen. While Allen is 73 and had not been talked about as a statewide candidate like she was in years past, she did bring geographical balance to the ticket as well as the reputation of being more of a moderate Republican. Clearly, Ciattarelli did not pick Allen as an attempt to garner support from Trump die-hards. However, after being selected, she admitted to having voted for Trump in 2020. This also appears to be the first ever "Jack and Diane" ticket anywhere in America and the New Jersey Republicans have openly embraced the label in the spirit of Johnny Cougar, circa 1982.

 

The incumbent Murphy, who has the capacity to self-finance if he wished, has a hefty financial advantage over his challenger and has also had a persistent lead in the polls. The data shows that Ciattarelli has managed to close the gap a bit. The most recent poll, from Emerson College, showed Murphy ahead by a 50-44 margin. This likely opened some eyes among political observers nationwide a bit more than some earlier Republican polls which showed an even closer race.

While the soon to be analyzed contest in Virginia is making the most news around the country, the dynamics in New Jersey are somewhat similar. Will the race come down to national or local factors? Democrats would clearly like a referendum on Donald Trump, whom was easily defeated in the state by Joe Biden, and has of course continued to make unfounded claims of having the election stolen from him. The GOP ticket is in the somewhat awkward spot of trying to distance themselves from Trump but not going too far in rejecting him for fear of alienating his supporters or attracting the outward ire of Trump himself. This past week, Ciattarelli went perhaps as far as he had when he issued a Tweet criticizing Trump's "petty insults" upon the death of former Secretary of State and General Colin Powell.

 

Murphy and his allies though have been attacking Ciattarelli for having attended a post Election Day 2020 "Stop the Steal" rally in New Jersey. The Republican has somewhat attempted to make the claim that he did not know it was a rally attempting to overcome the election, which he admits Biden won, but that sort of denial seems a bit hard to believe. Clearly, the ambitious Ciattarelli  was focused on the conservative primary vote before worrying too much about the general election. He, like many other in his party, likely did not realize how much Trump would continue to dominate the GOP landscape nearly a year later, and even after the January 6 insurrection attempt.

Is Trump the main issue in New Jersey? If so, Murphy will win by near landslide proportions. Or have voters by and large moved on? The recent polls would indicate that they are more concerned about the next four years in the state than fighting over the fact that Trump has been nothing but a sore loser ever since his defeat to Biden. It is also a fact that Biden has seen his popularity and job approval slip precipitously across the country in recent months. This may not be as politically fatal for Murphy in New Jersey, but it still is a factor that cannot help an incumbent, at times of great anxiety, especially related to the economy and inflation concerns.

There is one anecdote from this race that is worth mentioning. Back in the 1990s, while serving on his town's Borough Council, Ciattarelli had somehow championed a ban on cursing in the community, with fines and jail time possible. The measure was considered controversial back then in the land of "The Sopranos" but I do not think it would have applied to private speech. This year, the state Democrat Party released an ad attacking Ciattarelli for this public policy effort from his past featuring presumably normal Jersey boys and girls off the street reacting by calling him an "asshole" and all sort of other "what the f is wrong is him" rhetoric. The message by the Democrats conveyed that New Jersey folks love their profanity. I am not trying to defend this local measure from the 90's which I do not fully understand, but in the age of Trump and all sorts of anger and disrespect being leveled between citizens, perhaps less swearing is somewhat we should aim for. Democrats should maybe keep that in mind the next time Trump swears publicly or a crowd of his supporters launches into an "F Joe Biden" chant at a public event.

As this race heads into the homestretch, Murphy will continue to try to make it about Trump while Ciattarelli is more interested in making it about the Biden Administration. Either way, the result would tend to give at least somewhat of an edge to Democrats. Murphy has middling numbers but his party is clearly the stronger performing one in recent cycles. Past New Jersey Governors have either been denied a second term (which includes a string of Democrats) or reelected by a larger margin. This year, Murphy is likely to become the rare Democrat to win a second term as Governor, but almost certainly below his 14 point initial victory. Any result though that has the candidates within single digits of each other will be hailed as a moral victory by Republicans, although Virginia will generate the lion's share of headlines.