Virginia U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

Virginia U.S. Senate

39 Days Until Election Day

Status: Democrat Incumbent

2020 Presidential Result: Blue State (South)

Outlook: Likely Democrat

This is a race that is on the periphery of being competitive. Many Republicans believe this could be a sleeper opportunity for their party to flip a U.S. Senate seat, but up to now, I am continuing to see that prospect as unlikely.

Incumbent Democrat Tim Kaine is seeking a third term in the Senate. Had he declined to run for reelection, a bevy of politicians in both parties would had had a lot of motivation to run and this race would have been getting more attention. Kaine did not face a primary challenge in June. He has a very lengthy political resume with his first statewide victory being back in 2001 when he was elected Lt. Governor. Four years later, he won a competitive Gubernatorial election and unable to succeed himself four years later, was mentioned as a finalist to become Barack Obama's 2008 running-mate. Instead, Obama would make Kaine the DNC Chair and after leaving that post, was in good position to win an open Senate seat in 2012 against a former Senator and Governor. In 2016, Kaine had his moment in the national spotlight when Hillary Clinton tapped him as her running-mate. It looked quite likely that the Senator would move from being a member of the body to presiding over it as Vice President. Instead . the Clinton-Kaine ticket, in which the latter became somewhat of an afterthought, lost to Donald Trump. Returning to the Senate, Kaine easily won reelection in 2018 against a controversial, MAGA affiliated opponent.

Republicans have had some success in the Old Dominion despite its reputation of having moved from a Republican leaning state to a Democrat leaning one. The Gubernatorial victory of Glenn Youngkin in 2019 is an example. In the Senate primary though, all of the candidates running did not seem to resemble the relatively moderate positioning of Youngkin and instead were considered emblematic of the current Republican base. 

Five candidates ran but the easy primary winner with 62 percent of the vote was Hung Cao, who benefited greatly from a Donald Trump endorsement not long before the primary. Cao had come to the United States as a small child with his Vietnam refugee family at around a time where many of those families wound up in Northern Virginia. A retired Navy Captain with impressive academic credentials, Cao made his political debut in 2022 when he won a crowded Republican primary for a U.S. House seat. That midterm cycle saw Cao and other Republicans from the area competitive against Democrats, but this particular district favored the other party and challenger fell six points short against the incumbent.

Many party leaders though took notice of Cao and his political potential though few expected he might win a Senate primary as easily as he did so soon after losing a House race. The second place finisher who was way back at 11 percent had the endorsements of many local and national conservative leaders. The third place finisher took 10 percent and the other two each took nine percent.

While Cao has an impressive personal biography, he also seems to be far from an ideal general election candidate. His campaign emphasized numerous hot-button issues, such as the Hunter Biden scandal and alleged FBI abuses at the behest of the "Biden dictatorship" that animate conservatives online but might not be at the top of mind of swing voters. The campaign also has been leaning heavily into Cao's considerable military combat experience but the candidate seems to have exaggerated that service. On numerous occasions, he has claimed to have been "blown up" and disabled during combat, but there is no record of him having received a Purple Heart or any sort of military accommodation that would seemingly accompany such personal sacrifice.

Polls show a somewhat close race at the Presidential level between Trump and Kamala Harris, but no serious political handicapper actually thinks it might go red. The Senate race looks to be slightly less close. Lately, Kaine has moved closer to opposing military aid to Israel, which in the past would be a very controversial stance in a place like Virginia, and perhaps still could be, but Cao being as MAGA as he is simply makes it hard to see how he breaks through statewide in a place with so many affluent and well-educated voters in the suburbs. The incumbent also has a massive cash advantage in this race and while he might not win by as much as the 16 points he did six years ago, Kaine is probably still headed to a double digit victory.

U.S. Senate races predicted thus far:

19 D  (9 Safe, 4 Likely,  4 Leans, 2 Tossup)

11 R   (5 Safe, 3 Likely, 2 Leans, 1 Tossup)

 

Total with predicted thus far:

47 Democrats (28 Holdover, 9 Safe, 4 Likely, 4 Leans, 2 Tossup)

49 Republicans (38 Holdover, 5 Safe, 3 Likely, 2 Leans, 1 Tossup)