Florida Governor- Race of the Day

 88 Days Until Election Day

 

Florida Governor

 

Status: Republican Open

2024 Presidential Result: Red State (South)

 

Outlook:Tossup (R)

 

On Election Night, few stories might wind up making national headlines more than if Democrats flip the Governorship of Florida. Personally, I would like to see it happen and believe there are legitimate reasons to think it could. I also have to try to make sure that wishful thinking is not getting in the way of better judgment. Thus, until we get closer to the actual election, one has to assume that Republicans will manage to still win in a state they have dominated, first in close races, then by much bigger margins since around 1998.

 

The election of Jeb Bush all that time ago ushered in a period of major conservative policy initiatives in the Sunshine State. While it is true that today's Republicans are very different than the Bush Republicans I was proud to support, this is an office that Democrats have not win since their last victory in 1994. After two election wins, the first by a small margin when he was considered the underdog and the second by a larger than anticipated landslide, Ron DeSantis is term-limted. Still just 47 years old, here retains national ambitions but has been hurt nationally and at home within his party by his once highly touted primary challenge to then former President Donald Trump in 2024. That did not go well for DeSantis and so much of the intraparty battles within Florida since have been between those who backed the Governor and those who stuck with Trump and wound up on the winning side. DeSantis occasionally makes statements designed to appeal to conservatives nationally, but he is in the position now where he has to show subservience to the President who had all sorts of nasty nicknames for him during 2023 and the first weeks of 2024. These days, it appears that Trump appears to publicly be over the feud.

 

There is no denying that DeSantis has been a consequential Governor who yielded a lot of power. Since his Presidential defeat though, many in his own party have not gone along with everything he wanted. As the race to replace him started to take shape, there was speculation that his wife Casey DeSantis, a very active advisor to her husband would run for Governor, but that did not happen. By this time, Donald Trump had endorsed his pick, a loyal Congressman named Byron Donalds, who stands pretty likely to win the upcoming August 18 primary. If Donalds wins in November, in red friendly Florida, he will become the first African-American Republican ever elected as a Governor anywhere, as well as becoming Florida's first black Governor.

 
Donalds is a native of New York City, which is not uncommon for many Floridians. He had a bit of a rough upbringing and faced criminal charges related to marijuana and theft. He moved to Florida for college and as a young man was registered as a Democrat. Donalds worked in the financial industry and fared poorly in a crowded 2012 Republican primary for Congress. He went to be elected though to the Florida House and in 2020 won a crowded Republican primary for an open seat in Congress. On Capitol Hill, he has been a steadfast defender of Donald Trump at every turn. Frequently appearing on television, Donalds has been a well-spoken and on message communicator of conservative talking points and became well-known nationally as one of the few black Republicans in Congress. Trump took a liking to him politically, perhaps thinking that he used to be a football player. While he looks like he could have played, he never did. Donalds received some votes for House Speaker, which he did not discourage, during the various messy leadership battles Republicans have had in recent years. While Donalds is a fairly smooth talker, he does exactly come off as gregarious. His demeanor is usually pretty steady but sort of aloof. In that regard, he has something in common with DeSantis.

 

The outgoing Governor has not made an endorsement in this race, likely not wanting to once again find himself doing battle with Trump, but he has seemed to clearly prefer someone else get the job. Florida primary fields are often crowded and this race is no exception. The main challenger to Donalds is Jay Collins, who as a State Senator was appointed by DeSantis to the vacant position of Lt. Governor, where he now serves. A decorated combat veteran, Collins lost a leg as a result of his service in Afghanistan. Having a staunchly conservative record, Collins has been spending the past few months going after the frontrunner Donalds, claiming that he is not conservative enough and could have electability issues. He has even tried to make an issue over Donalds apparent past as a weed dealer. While he point out on his website that he was "appointed" by DeSantis, the Governor has not officially endorsed Collins.

 

The path to coalescing anti-Donalds votes in the primary is complicated by the number of candidates. Former State House Speaker Paul Renner is running, and while he would not try to claim this publicly, is seen by some as a remnant of the time when Jeb Bush was the top Republican in Florida. Instead, Renner tries to join in on hot button issues that appeal to the MAGA base, with the hope that some might like that he has more government experience. Then, there is 31 year old investment firm founder James Fishback. He all sort of questions surrounding his professional and personal life and while he denied being a bigot, Fishback has clear ties to white supremacist and Christian nationalist movements. Originally, he claimed to be the rightful heir to DeSantis, but has gone much further in trying to draw attention to himself, including making claims, that some doubt, that he and his staff have been the victims of arson and other attempts to harm him. Fishback will probably finish third in the primary, and it is pretty amazing that the Groyper vote has become as significant as it appears to be in Florida. The controversial candidate has been endorsed by Tucker Carlson for example. Collins needs to try to hurt Fishback politically in order to boost himself up and Donalds of course has to be concerned that some of his supporters will prove reluctant to vote for a black man in a general election.

 

Polling suggests that Congressman Donalds will win the primary this month, but his campaign has not exactly been seen as overly vibrant. Relying on" The Donald's endorsement may be more than enough for Donalds but it will be interesting to see what his margin is. Frankly, anything under 60 percent should be considered somewhat of a red flag. Moving forward though, it is hard to see Donalds really trying to differentiate himself from Florida resident Trump on anything substantial, regardless of any popularity issues the lame duck President currently has.

 

The Democrats' nominee for Governor is, as was the case twice with former Governor Charlie Crist, likely to be another former Republican. With many Democrats taking a pass on trying to win in a state where Republican voter registration has continued to surge, an opportunity presented itself to David Jolly.  A native Floridian, Jolly had a career as a Republican Congressional staffer and then as a lobbyist. In 2014, he won a highly contested special election to Congress to succeed his former boss who had died in office. Seen as a fairly moderate Republican, Jolly cruised to a full term that year but then in 2016, was thrown into a district that was less favorable. At first, he sought the Senate seat being vacated, at least at the time, by Presidential candidate Marco Rubio, Then, when Rubio decided to run for reelection, Jolly jumped back into a House race. That year though, he lost to none other than Democrat Charlie Crist,who was in between his turns as his new party's nominee for Governor. Jolly would go on to be a frequent critic of Donald Trump on television shows, and formally left the Republican Party in 2018. In 2025 he became a Democrat and has moved somewhat to the left on some issues, in advance of his run for Governor.

 

Jolly had been facing a primary challenge from Jerry Demings, the Mayor of Orange County, and also the husband of former Congresswoman Val Demings, who had been considered by Joe Biden to be his runningmate in 2020 and who lost a U.S. Senate race by a solid margin in 2022 to Marco Rubio. Jerry Demings was seen as a credible candidate with a base of African-American support in his home area of Orlando as well as some other places, but he dropped out of the race in June after being diagnosed with a treatable form of prostate cancer. It appeared Jolly had the nomination locked up, but he has since been challenged by State Representative Dotie Jacobs, a Hatian born woman from the Miami area. Jacobs has received some support from the more progressive factions of the party, but is not expected to come too close to Jolly in the primary vote. It will be important for the eventual nominee though to do well among minority groups in Florda, many of whom had gravitated in larger numbers toward Trump and other Republicans in recent years. 

 

Jolly also has to contend with suspicion that some Democrats have with him over his years as a Republican politician. In the general election, candidates run on tickets with their selection for Lt. Governor and they usually make that choice after the primary. Donalds has yet to pick somebody, but might be inclined to go with a Latino running-mate. Jolly has already made his selection though and it is someone with a prominent name in the state and whom a lot of Democrats probably wish would have run for Governor herself. Gwen Graham is the daughter of the late Bob Graham who served as Governor and U.S. Senator. The senior Graham never lost an election in Florida, but did not catch on among Democrats when he ran for President in 2004. Before that, he was always seemingly on the short list for his party's Vice Presidential nomination. Now, his daughter has been chosen by someone for the number two spot. Graham captured a Republican U.S. House seat in 2014, and overlapped with Jolly in the Florida Congressional delegation. The 2016 redistricting that cost Jolly his seat as a Republican also had the Democrat Graham not seek reelection in her district. Graham ran for Governor in 2018 but narrowly finished second to a more liberal African-American candidate who would go on to lose to DeSantis (and has since faced a slew of legal problems.) Had Graham won that primary in '18, she probably would have become Governor and the politics of Florida would be very different today.

 

The Jolly-Graham ticket is one that could appeal to many Florida independents and disaffected Republicans. The thinking is that Democrats will go along with supporting it as well considering the Republican alternative. However, a victory in Florida these days is still an uphill battle for any Democrat. Florida used to be the ultimate political battleground and races for Governor and U.S. Senate wound up razor tight, although Republicans prevailed in some highly profile ones. The last couple of cycles though has seen the state move from purple to red. It will take a national wave for Jolly to win but there are a lot of reason to believe that Donalds could be vulnerable politically.

 

Polling has tended to show Donalds up by a few points, but under 50 percent and with a lot undecided. Democrats will try to paint the Republican as a puppet of Trump and as someone who will not be as an effective of an executive as many consider the outgoing DeSantis to be. Republicans will try to tie Jolly, despite his moderate Republican lineage, to radical socialists running as Democrats in other states, in the hope that the large amount of Latino voters who have family roots in socialist societies will once again turn out to vote against that. White Republicans and a Latino Republican have proven politically successful statewide in Florida, but will the same be able to be said about a black Republican? There is no doubt that the election of Byron Donalds would be historically significant and will catapult him into the conversation regarding future national candidates. It just so happens that so many of them right now in the Republican Party are also from Florida.

 

Based on the uncertainty of Florida's political environment on Election Day right now, in the midst of very bad numbers for Donald Trump and his party, I think this race looks like a Tossup. However, until there are further significant developments, one cannot quite yet vote against a Republican pulling through.

 

Gubernatorial races predicted thus far: 

5 D, (1 Safe, 2 Likely, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup), 3 R (1 Safe, I Likely, 1 Tossup)

 

Totals predicted thus far:

11 D (6 holdover, 1 Safe, 2 Likely, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup), 11 R (8 holdover, 1 Safe, 1 Likely, 1 Tossup)