Gubernatorial Predictions

3 Days Until Election Day

Alabama- Leans Republican (change from Likely Republican)

Alaska- Leans Democrat 

Arizona- Likely Democrat 

Arkansas- Likely Republican 

California- Likely Democrat

Colorado- Safe Democrat

Connecticut- Likely Democrat

Florida- Leans Republican 

Georgia- Tossup (D) (change from Tossup R)

Hawai'i-  Safe Democrat

Idaho- Likely Republican 

Illinois- Safe Democrat

Iowa- Leans Democrat 

Kansas- Tossup (R) - (change from Leans Republican)

Maine-  Leans Democrat (change from Likely Democrat)

Maryland- Safe Democrat

Massachusetts- Safe Democrat (change from Likely Democrat)

Michigan- Leans Democrat

Minnesota- Likely Democrat  

Nebraska- Leans Republican (change from Tossup R)

Nevada- Tossup (D)- (change from Tossup R)

New Hampshire- Leans Republican

New Mexico- Leans Democrat

New York- Likely Democrat

Ohio- Leans Democrat (change from Tossup D)

Oklahoma- Leans Republican 

Oregon- Leans Democrat

Pennsylvania- Likely Democrat

Rhode Island- Leans Democrat (change from Likely Democrat)

South Carolina- Likely Republican

South Dakota- Likely Republican

Tennessee- Leans Republican 

Texas- Tossup (R) 

Vermont- Leans Republican

Wisconsin- Leans Democrat

Wyoming- Safe Republican 

 

Total with predictions:

28 D (6 holdover, 5 Safe,  6 Likely, 9 Leans, 2 Tossup)

22 R (8 holdover, 1 Safe,  4 Likely, 7 Leans, 2 Tossup)

 

Democrat net gain of 4

 

These races as a whole are not getting as much attention as the contests for U.S. Senate and seemingly less national press than a Gubernatorial class typically gets in a midterm. Of course, some have been very much in the news such as the race in Ohio.

 

Clearly, I am increasingly buying in to a blue wave coming on Tuesday across the board. That does not mean that Republicans do not have hard to crack leads in many red states. The polling will need to be wrong and just about all conventional wisdom would need to be wrong though for this to be a much better election night for Republicans than expected. Some have rightly pointed out that the party of Donald Trump did manage to do better than polls showed in the three elections where he was on the ballot. That was not really the case in the midterm year of 2018 though nor was it in the Biden midterm year of 2022. In that latter, there was supposed to be a "red wave", and while Republicans did narrowly win the House, as everyone anticipated, they lost some very high profile contests along the way. When Trump is not on the ballot, a lot of his voters just stay home or perhaps even revert to voting for Democrats.

I will have more to add tomorrow when I formally predict the Senate races and perhaps Monday as well, when if needed, I will finalize any predictions. For now, I am of the mind that a strong year for Democrats and reports about early voting anecdotes in the states are leading me to believe that a one term Republican incumbent will now narrowly lose in Nevada. Also, the one race I am most going out on a limb on is that an African-American woman will now win an open Gubernatorial race in Georgia. If I am wrong on that one, I will not at all be surprised, but it seems like the reelection campaign of the incumbent Senator, against a weak and divisive Republican opponent, could have coattails.

 

Plus, with all the talk Donald Trump has been engaged in lately on asses, it has to mean good news for a candidate named Bottoms.

 

Past Results:

2006: 35-1 (97%)
2008: 10-1 (91%)
2010: 34-3 (92%)
2012: 9-2 (82%)
2014: 32-4 (89%)
2016: 9-3 (75%) 

2018: 35-1 (97%) 

2020: 11-0 (100%) 

2022:  34-2 (94%)

2024: 11-0 (100%)