Monday, April 10, 2017

2017 U.S. House Special Elections

Tomorrow will see the first general election to fill the five current vacancies in the U.S. House. The rest will be voted on in the weeks and months ahead, but I am offering predictions here, and will revise if I feel appropriate.

California 34
vacant upon the resignation of Xavier Becerra (D)
won by Clinton with 84% of the vote

Safe D/Leans Gomez
______________________________________________________________________
Georgia 6
vacant upon the resignation of Tom Price (R)
won by Trump with 48 % of the vote

Tossup (R)
______________________________________________________________________
Kansas 4
vacant upon the resignation of Mike Pompeo (R)
won by Trump with 60% of the vote

Likely R
____________________________________________________________________
Montana 1
vacant upon the resignation of Ryan Zinke (R)
won by Trump with 56 % of the vote

Likely R
 ____________________________________________________________________
South Carolina 5
vacant upon the resignation of Mick Mulvaney (R)
won by Trump with 57% of the vote

Safe R

Sunday, April 02, 2017

World Champion Chicago Cubs

Right now, the 2017 Major League Baseball season is officially underway, and in just hours, the Chicago Cubs will take the field in St. Louis as the defending champions for the first time since William Howard Taft was a new President.

As I have three times written an ode of sorts on this blog to the Chicago Blackhawks after their Stanley Cup victories (and might another one be in the offing?), I have been meaning for some time to write about the Cubs. Last year, as a lifelong fan of the team, was truly an amazing journey, and there is so much that I could say, but thanks to the crazy and unfortunate political landscape, my desire to write on here has lessened. This is worth at least some effort though as the new season gets underway. For years, I have been a proud Republican and a long suffering Cubs fan, and now, after 2016, neither of those labels really apply. I can choose to focus on the positive and just continue to remember how proud I was to see what the Cubs did. After years of heartbreak as a sports fan, despite seeing every professional team I root for win titles, from the Bears when I was a kid too young to really understand football, to the Michael Jordan Bulls dynasty of the '90s to the what the Blackhawks have doen this decade, I still find the Cubs winning it all hard to believe. This is the Holy Grail for me as a sports fan and while I hope to see more championships, for all of the teams mentioned, I can truly never really be upset about sports again, if things do not work out.

I can look back at a post I made on here in 2008, when the Cubs were swept out of a first round playoff series, just another episode of post-season heartbreak and I was pretty despondent that autumn. I wondered if being a fan was still worth it but concluded then, that I would give them another 40 years to win it all before I gave up. Thankfully for me, I did not even have to wait 10 more years. Lifelong Cubs fans, two generations or more ahead of me never got to see what I saw in early November.

Also, I know distinctly that as soon as Theo Epstein was hired as the Cubs Vice President of Baseball Operations in late 2011, that the organization was on the right track. Much praise must go to the Ricketts Family, along with Theo of course, and needless to say Joe Maddon, as manager, despite almost blowing it in Game 7!

In 2012, I specifically predicted the Cubs would win the World Series in 2016. I told this to many, many people. There was a lot of work to do though as Epstein, Jed Hoyer, and their team went about rebuilding a middling franchise into one that could achieve sustained succuess. So, in 2012, they had to suffer through a 102 loss season, even while calling up future cornerstone Anthony Rizzo. Some progress was made in 2013 but the team was still pretty bad. There was more and more promise in 2014 as the team won 73 games and continued optimism about all the prospects in the Minor Leagues, such as Kris Bryant.

In 2015, the Cubs had a great season, in their first year under Maddon, and won 97 games. That was only enough for third place in the NL Central though, but they thrilled their fans by winning a wildcard game on the road and then ousting the division champion rival Cardinals in the NLDS. The magic wore out in the NLCS as the Cubs were swept, but I could not help but feel as enthusiastic about the 2016 season as I have ever about any year. I wondered though if they could truly win it all the next year, despite my long-standing prediction. I just knew that had to get back to the NLCS and win at least one game. If I had to wait 8 years, with them coming one game closer each time, I would.

The 2016 season was magical though from start to finish. The Cubs got off to a blazing start and despite a rough couple weeks towards the middle of the year, coasted to the best record in baseball with 103 victories. For the most part, they dominated teams, but also had some impressive late inning comeback wins as well. I only saw them play one game in person last season, on a Thursday afternoon in Milwaukee in May. The Cubs lost, but the stadium was mostly wearing Cubbie blue.

In October, amid all the turmoil and confusion of the Presidential election, the playoffs began, and it was a very much needed diversion for me away from the horrific choice facing America. The Cubs would be favored in the NLDS against the San Francisco Giants, but somehow that team always manages to win the World Series during even number years. The Cubs won the first two games at home, but blew a lead in Game 3 on the West Coast, and even after mounting a comeback to force extra innings, came up short in their chance to wrap up that series. The next night, the Cubs were down, in the 9th inning, and it looked really scary, especially with the starting pitching the Giants would have lined up for the remainder of the series. When it mattered most though, the Cubs turned on a switch and scored runs in the 9th, and closed out San Francisco. This year really had to be different after all.

Then, it was on to the NLCS and the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Cubs won a thrilling Game 1, after having blown a lead, but then their bats were shut down by Clayton Kershaw in Game 2 at home. In Southern California, the Cubs continued to struggle at the plate, and they now trailed in the series. I was relieved that they were not going to get swept again in the NLCS but obviously wanted more wins. Just when things looked dark, the bats got hot again in Game 4 and Game 5 and amazingly, the Cubs were just one win away from the World Series.

I had seen this before though, as a child in 1984 and a a youngish adult in 2003. I felt confident they could get it done but was still in shock about what was actually happening. They had two chances to win, and Game 6 at Wrigley Field matched Clayton Kershaw against Cubs Cy Young candidate Kyle Hendricks. Behind Hendricks and timely hitting, the game was almost too good to be true. Was it really going to be that easy? Nonetheless, the Cubs were headed to the World Series for the first time since 1945. This was really happening and was not just a video game commercial or a Jim Belushi movie. I felt like even if that was the last win of the year, the "Curse of the Billy Goat" dating back to 1945, was now over and heir time was soon coming, but also had a feeling that they were just not going to be denied winning it all.

The Cleveland Indians were seeking their first title since 1948 as the World Series got underway. Their entire city had felt cursed by sports before the Cavaliers had won the NBA title in June and now their baseball team was looking to follow suit. The Cubs had been waiting since 1908 though and the two longest streaks in baseball would be put to the test.

In Game 1, the Indians Corey Kluber shut the Cubs out. Amazingly though, hitting phenom Kyle Schwarber, who had a great 2015 postseason in his rookie year, was the Designated Hitter for the Cubs in the World Series. This was something out of the movies. Schwarber had suffered a devastating knee injury in the first week of the season, before he could even collect his first hit, and was ruled out for all of 2016. He worked hard to rehab though and there was he playing in the World Series, his first MLB action in months. The dramatic possibilities were endless. While Schwarber did not hit a home run in the series, he did hit over .400 and the team likely would not have won it without him.

Schwarber was a big part of the Cubs Game 2 victory on the road and the series was tied heading back to Chicago. As Wrigley Field hosted its first World Series in 71 years, the atmosphere was electric, but the Cubs bats were not, and they lost a one run pitchers duel. The next night, Kluber continued his post-season mastery as the Cubs meekly went down and now trailed the series 3-1. I have to admit, that I sort of thought the season was soon to be over. Deep down, I kept some home alive, but it looked like the Cubs luck had finally run out and for that weekend at least, it was more depressing than I expected.

How can a team come back from a 3-1 deficit, with Games 6 and 7 on the road? That almost never happens and it would be even more dramatic than Cleveland's basketball team coming back from 3-1 that summer. After trailing early, the Cubs, behind a gutty performance by Cy Young candidate Jon Lester managed to win Game 5, the final game of the year at home (thanks to the All-Star Game result which cemented World Series home field advantage for the AL) and as a matter of pride, I felt good that the Cubs were not going down without a fight and that Wrigleyville could celebrate and sing "Go Cubs Go" for the last time that season.

The reigning Cy Young winner Jake Arietta was going for the Cubs in Game 6 though. If they could win that one, who knows what might happen in Game 7? The Cubs bats had woken up at the right time, as they rolled to a victory in Cleveland. Shortstop Addison Russell hit a Grand Slam and it seemed inevitable that the next day would actually see the Cubs playing for a title. Somehow though, fireballing closer Aroldis Chapman, a trade deadline addition, was called upon to pitch multiple innings in a game that the Cubs probably could have won without him and I was hoping that would not come back to haunt the team the next day.

Wednesday was Game 7 of the World Series. I had no choice but to go to work that day and I knew that win or lose or however many extra innings it took, I had to go to work on Thursday. This was just all so exciting though. The game was epic. Leadoff hitter Dexter Fowler hit a home run. Hendricks was outpitching Kluber and the Cubs had a lead in the middle innings. It was very hard to avoid counting how many outs away they were. Maddon made the move though to bring in Lester from the bullpen, to relieve Hendricks, with it all on the line, and the Indians immediately scored a couple of runs to draw closer. The next inning though, saw Lester's personal catcher, David Ross, the beloved "Grandpa" figure of the team, playing in his final season and his final game, hit a somewhat rare for him homerun. What a moment! It just seemed like destiny was shining on the Cubs.

The call was made though in the 8th inning, as expected, to bring in Chapman, and it did not go well. Dramatically, the Indians hit a home run to tie the game, conjuring up all sorts of unpleasant memories for Cubs fans. My thought though was that the game was tied, just like it was in the first inning, and there was a long way to go. The Cubs failed to score in the 9th, but somehow Chapman, basically pitching on fumes, avoided giving up the losing run in the 9th. I consider that very much an underappreciated aspect of Game 7.

Then, the rains hit Cleveland, and the tarp went on the field. I could not believe it. How many hours might this take? I just wanted the Cubs to take their at bats in the 10th. Fortunately, the rain delay lasted just 17 minutes, akin to a break before Overtime would begin in a playoff hockey game. This was a chance to get everyone to regroup and only after the game would we learn , somewhat, about what went on in the weight room, as Cubs outfielder Jason Heyward, a big-time free agent signee who struggled offensively all year, called a team meeting, Several of the Cubs were said to be crying over what was looking like a lost opportunity, but Heyward reminded them of the success they had and implored them to "fight for their brothers." Heyward earned every dollar of his salary in those moments. As for the short rain delay itself, which may not have even truly seemed necessary? I have to believe that G-d finally gave a gift to Cubs fans, perhaps with some intervention from departed legends Ernie Banks, Ron Santo, and generations of departed Cubs fans. 

In the 10th, the Cubs came out swinging the bats. Schwarber led it off with a single and was lifted for a pinch runner, who wisely tagged up and made it to second on a Bryant shot to the outfield. Eventual World Series MVP Ben Zobrist, a native of Illinois, drove in the go ahead run and Miguel Montero, a former starter, who was now less frequently used behind the plate, drove in an extra run for good measure.

The Cubs led by two and were three outs away. Rookie reliever Carl Edwards Jr. quickly got the first two outs and Cubs fans everywhere were beyond ready. Then, he ran into a bit of trouble. A runner got on base and then the Indians scored a run. After about 10 minutes of the Cubs being a pitch away from glory, the championship winning run for the Indians, was now at the plate. Mike Montgomery was called upon to earn what would be his first ever MLB save, and on a somewhat tough defensive play Kris Bryant scooped up a ground ball and fired it across the infield to Anthony Rizzo. At long last, the Cubs had done it. As the song might go, "Hey Chicago, what do say, the Cubs have won the World Series today."

Bedlam ensued in Cleveland, throughout Chicagoland, and everywhere Cubs fans might have been following the moment. I cannot help but think about the stories of people who could have been watching in packed bars or from comfortable couches at home in front of giant HD televisions, but instead would take a radio and a lawn chair to a cemetery so that they could share the moment with a parent or other loved one.

For me, the feeling was disbelief and I do not know if I have even still gotten over it. Friday saw an estimated 5 million fans, one of the largest gatherings in human history, show up to salute the Cubs at a parade through Chicago and a rally. Next week, when the Cubs formally return to Wrigley, a banner will be raised and rings will be given out. Maybe it will feel more real then, but I am still sort of just trying to absorb it all. An unprecedented Presidential election and what would soon be a surprise result to me has only added to the surreal aspect of the year.


I just feel very grateful to have suffered through a relatively young life as a die-hard Cubs fan, and a fan of other Chicago teams. All the ups and downs I have experienced as a fan paled in comparison to the emotions of the 2016 Chicago Cubs World Series Championship season. I am so thankful to everyone associated with the organization and feel a great sense of kinship with all of the other fans, of all ages, who have dreamt about this happening.


If the Cubs go 0-162 this year, I will still be happy that I saw them win it all in 2016. However, the team is pretty damn good and may just do it all again this year.




Thursday, March 30, 2017

Worth Repeating

"When you are given immunity, that means you have probably committed a crime."

Michael Flynn
September 2016

Saturday, March 04, 2017

Crazy Times


Take Nixon in the deepest days of his Watergate paranoia, subtract 50 IQ points, add Twitter, and you have Trump today.

Wednesday, February 08, 2017

Super Bowl LI Result

From Houston, Texas

 NOT PREDICTION

New England Patriots (16-2) vs. Atlanta Falcons (13-5) L

Super Bowl Result: 0-1 (0%)
Final Results: 122-141 (46%)

Falcons finish 13-6
Patriots win title at 17-2

I have never been less interested in a football season since I was a young child. Nonetheless, I was hoping for the Falcons to beat New England in the Super Bowl and for a while, I truly believed it had happened, but wow, what a comeback or a chokejob or whatever you want to call it. Congratulations to worthy champions, but what a devastating turn of events for Atlanta sports fans. As a former long-suffering Cubs fan (back when we had no choice but to be long-suffering), I just feel nothing but sympathy for them.

Since October, my interest in sports has waned a bit, since the ultimate thrill as a fan came true. Nothing will ever compare with extra innings of Game 7 of the World Series, even the first ever Overtime of a Super Bowl, especially since my main team was not involved.

Keep hope alive though Falcons fans, I have learned that if you are loyal enough to your team, anything is possible.

In the meantime, the Legend of Brady and Belichek and the Patriots continue. Go figure. The guy with the reputation for being unethical, and married to a foreign model, was completely counted and somehow won.

They can thank the coin toss though. Whichever team won that for Overtime was probably destined to score a touchdown and end a game. Not since Hillary Clinton won all sorts of coin tosses a year ago in Iowa was there such a valuable coin toss. (By the way, great to see President and Mrs. George H.W. Bush on the mend and part of the festivities in their town in Houston. They are great Americans and a throwback to when an Administration of honor and decency held office.)

Since Tom Brady is still playing at a high level, I will be quite pleased if the Patriots decide to trade their backup Quarterback, Arlington Heights, Illinois native Jimmy Garrappolo to the Chicago Bears, starting a new era in the Windy City (and replacing another Trump backing QB whom I defended for too long). After all, it's been a long time since the Bears have brought a championship back to Chicago.

Sunday, February 05, 2017

Nyet Trump

https://twitter.com/ReaganBattalion/status/828084326604689408

Tuesday, January 31, 2017

Super Bowl LI

I was trying to do something to color the team names and messed up the format for the rest of this and I do not have time to figure out how to fix it....ignore the white backgrounds

From Houston, Texas

 NOT PREDICTION- since I think NE probably wins

Overall Results: 122-140

New England Patriots (16-2) vs. Atlanta Falcons (13-5)


Picking sides on this one is easy, for a variety of reasons, but I just might as well go all in and tie it politics. Had anti-anthem leftist idiot Colin Kaepernick been good enough to be in a Super Bowl again, I would be rooting against his team.

Instead, I will send a message and root against the team that Donald Trump is rooting for. I think most of American, regardless of what they think of Trump may be with me on this, but I actually want to root against Kraft, Belichek, and Brady because of their Trump devotions. Some Trumpists are rooting for them for that reason, so I want to line up against them, even if it puts me on the side of liberals in this circumstance. After all, it's only football.

Both owners of the Super Bowl participants happen to be Jewish, and I particularly like the fact that Atlanta owner Arthur Blank was willing to call out the Trump Bannon Administration for some of their actions, including the incomprehensible and deliberate decision to make a statement about the Holocaust that made no reference to Jews or anti-Semitism. The same people who demand that any sort of December Holiday greeting must contain the word "Christ", and take huge offense otherwise, really need to make sure that they understand that the Holocaust was something that happened primarily to and because of Jews, and reflect that in their statements.

So, I will be rooting for Red State Georgia over Blue New England for a variety of reasons, including wanting to see the moral disgrace and human embarrassment that is Donald J. Trump upset that his buddies fell short.

But hey, it's not all terrible. America is probably going to get somebody really good on the Supreme Court (at least this time), despite of what will be ridiculous hypocritical posturing by Democrats.


May the new conservative Justice, in the memory of Antonin Scalia, serve for many decades, and hopefully not be ashamed for eternity by the person who will have nominated him.

Sunday, January 29, 2017

Statement of Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) and Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC)

“Our government has a responsibility to defend our borders, but we must do so in a way that makes us safer and upholds all that is decent and exceptional about our nation.

“It is clear from the confusion at our airports across the nation that President Trump’s executive order was not properly vetted. We are particularly concerned by reports that this order went into effect with little to no consultation with the Departments of State, Defense, Justice, and Homeland Security.

“Such a hasty process risks harmful results. We should not stop green-card holders from returning to the country they call home. We should not stop those who have served as interpreters for our military and diplomats from seeking refuge in the country they risked their lives to help. And we should not turn our backs on those refugees who have been shown through extensive vetting to pose no demonstrable threat to our nation, and who have suffered unspeakable horrors, most of them women and children.

“Ultimately, we fear this executive order will become a self-inflicted wound in the fight against terrorism. At this very moment, American troops are fighting side-by-side with our Iraqi partners to defeat ISIL. But this executive order bans Iraqi pilots from coming to military bases in Arizona to fight our common enemies. Our most important allies in the fight against ISIL are the vast majority of Muslims who reject its apocalyptic ideology of hatred. This executive order sends a signal, intended or not, that America does not want Muslims coming into our country. That is why we fear this executive order may do more to help terrorist recruitment than improve our security.”

Monday, January 23, 2017

NFL Conference Championship Results

NOT PREDICTIONS


1. Packers (12-6) at Falcons (12-5) W 1

2. Steelers (13-5) at Patriots (15-2) L 1

Conference Championship Results: 1-1 (50%)
Overall Results: 123-141 (47%)

Packers finish 12-7
I hope it ruined Reince Priebus's day

Steelers finish 13-6
I hope it ruined Rush Limbaugh's day

At least I will have a time to root for in the Super Bowl...


Friday, January 20, 2017

Words to Remember



"America has never been united by blood or birth or soil. We are bound by ideals that move us beyond our backgrounds, lift us above our interests, and teach us what it means to be citizens. Every child must be taught these principles. Every citizen must uphold them. And every immigrant, by embracing these ideals, makes our country more, not less, American.

Today we affirm a new commitment to live out our Nation's promise through civility, courage, compassion, and character. America at its best matches a commitment to principle with a concern for civility. A civil society demands from each of us good will and respect, fair dealing and forgiveness.
Some seem to believe that our politics can afford to be petty because in a time of peace the stakes of our debates appear small. But the stakes for America are never small. If our country does not lead the cause of freedom, it will not be led.

 If we do not turn the hearts of children toward knowledge and character, we will lose their gifts and undermine their idealism. If we permit our economy to drift and decline, the vulnerable will suffer most.
We must live up to the calling we share. Civility is not a tactic or a sentiment; it is the determined choice of trust over cynicism, of community over chaos. And this commitment, if we keep it, is a way to shared accomplishment.
America at its best is also courageous. Our national courage has been clear in times of depression and war, when defeating common dangers defined our common good. Now we must choose if the example of our fathers and mothers will inspire us or condemn us. We must show courage in a time of blessing by confronting problems instead of passing them on to future generations."

President George W. Bush
January 20, 2001

Thursday, January 19, 2017

NFL Conference Championships

NOT PREDICTIONS

 Overall Results: 122-140 (47%)

To me, a Super Bowl matchup of the Patriots vs. the Packers would be the football equivalent of Clinton vs. Trump. I would like to avoid two weeks of that matchup, but I have a feeling there will be no such luck.

1. Packers (12-6) at Falcons (12-5)

2. Steelers (13-5) at Patriots (15-2)

Tuesday, January 17, 2017

NFL Division Playoff Results

NOT PREDICTIONS

1. Seahawks (11-5-1) at Falcons (11-5) W 1
2. Texans (10-7) at Patriots (14-2) L 1
3. Packers (11-6) at Cowboys (13-3) L 2
4. Steelers (12-5) at Chiefs (12-4) L 3

Divisional Playoff Results: 1-3 (25%)
Overall Results: 122-140 (47%)

Texans finish 10-8
Seahawks finish 11-6-1
Chiefs finish 12-5
Cowboys finish 13-4

Friday, January 13, 2017

NFL Divisional Playoffs

NOT PREDICTIONS

Overall Results: 121-137 (47%)

1. Seahawks (11-5-1) at Falcons (11-5)
2. Texans (10-7) at Patriots (14-2)
3. Packers (11-6) at Cowboys (13-3)
4. Steelers (12-5) at Chiefs (12-4)

Wednesday, January 11, 2017

2016-2017 Bowl Game Results

The college football Bowl season is over and this is a recap of the games and if the teams I nominally wanted to win their games, did so or not.

I am quite pleased that Clemson won the National Championship, avenging their loss last season. It was an extremely exciting game, especially the final few minutes. For some reason, I feel an affinity for Clemson, so I am happy for them and their coach Dabo Swinney. He has said that he took inspiration this season from the World Champion Chicago Cubs, and had visited with manager Joe Maddon during this past baseball season at Wrigley Field.

The rankings, from before the games began, are from the AP.


1. Celebration Bowl W 1
Atlanta, GA

North Carolina Central Eagles vs. Grambling State Tigers

2. New Mexico Bowl  W 2
Albuquerque, NM

New Mexico Lobos vs. Texas at San Antonio Roadrunners

3. Las Vegas Bowl L 1

Las Vegas, NV

Houston Cougars vs. San Diego State Aztecs

4. Camellia Bowl  L 2
Montgomery, AL

Appalachian State Mountaineers vs. Toledo Rockets

5. Cure Bowl L 3
Orlando, FL

Central Florida Knights vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves

6. New Orleans Bowl W 3
New Orleans, LA

Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles vs. Louisiana at Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns

7. Beach Bowl L 4
Miami, FL

Central Michigan Chippewas vs. Tulsa Golden Hurricane

8. Boca Raton Bowl W 4
Boca Raton, FL

Memphis Tigers vs. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

9. Poinsettia Bowl W 5
San Diego, CA

Brigham Young Cougars vs .Wyoming Cowboys

10. Potato Bowl W 6
Boise, ID

Idaho Vandals vs. Colorado State Rams

11. Bahamas Bowl L 5
Nassau, The Bahamas

Eastern Michigan Eagles vs. Old Dominion Monarchs

12. Armed Forces Bowl L 6
Fort Worth, TX

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs vs United States Naval Academy Midshipmen

13. Dollar General Bowl L 7
Mobile, AL

Ohio Bobcats vs. Troy Trojans

14. Hawai'i Bowl L 8
Halawa, HI

 Hawaiʻi at Mānoa Rainbow Warriors vs. Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders

15. St. Petersburg Bowl W 7
St. Petersburg, FL

Miami RedHawks vs. Mississippi State University of Agriculture and Applied Science Bulldogs

16. Quick Lane Bowl L 9
Detroit, MI

Maryland, College Park Terrapins vs. Boston College Eagles

17. Independence Bowl L 10
Shreveport, LA

North Carolina State Wolfpack vs. Vanderbilt Commodores

18. Heart of Dallas Bowl W 8
Dallas, TX

United States Military Academy at West Point Black Knights vs. North Texas Mean Green

19. Military Bowl W 9
Annapolis, MD

# 23 Temple Owls vs. Wake Forest Demon Deacons

20. Holiday Bowl L 11
San Diego, CA

Minnesota Twin Cities Golden Gophers vs. Washington State Cougars

21. Cactus Bowl L 12
Phoenix, AZ

Boise State Broncos vs. Baylor Bears

22.  Pinstripe Bowl W 10
Bronx, NY

# 22 Pittsburgh Panthers vs. Northwestern Wildcats

23. Athletic Bowl L 13
Orlando, FL

# 14 West Virginia Mountaineers vs. Miami Hurricanes

24. Foster Farms Bowl W 11
Santa Clara, CA

Indiana Bloomington Hoosiers vs. Utah Utes

25. Texas Bowl W 12
Houston, TX

Texas A&M Aggies vs. Kansas State Wildcats

26. Birmingham Bowl L 14
Birmingham, AL

# 25 South Florida Bulls vs. South Carolina Gamecocks

27. Belk Bowl W 13
Charlotte, NC

Arkansas Razorbacks vs. # 18 Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State Hokies

28. Alamo Bowl W 14
San Antonio, TX

# 13 Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. # 11 Colorado Boulder Buffaloes

29. Liberty Bowl L 15
Memphis, TN

Georgia Bulldogs vs. Texas Christian Horned Frogs

30. Sun Bowl W 15
El Paso, TX

# 16 Leland Stanford Junior Cardinal vs. North Carolina at Chapel Hill Tar Heels

31. Music City Bowl W 16
Nashville, TN

# 24 Nebraska-Lincoln Cornhuskers vs. Tennessee, Knoxville Volunteers

32. Arizona Bowl W 17
Tuscon, AZ

South Alabama Jaguars vs. United States Air Force Academy Falcons

33. Orange Bowl W 18
Miami Gardens, FL

# 6 Michigan Wolverines vs. # 10 Florida State Seminoles

34. Citrus Bowl W 19
Orlando, FL

# 19 Louisiana State University and Agricultural and Mechanical College Tigers vs. #15 Louisville Cardinals

35. TaxSlayer Bowl W 20
Jacksonville, FL

Georgia Institute of Technology Yellow Jackets vs. Kentucky Wildcats

36. Peach Bowl L 16
Atlanta, GA

# 4 Washington Huskies vs. # 1 Alabama Crimson Tide

37. Fiesta Bowl W 21
Glendale, AZ

# 2 Ohio State Buckeyes vs. # 3 Clemson Tigers

38. Outback Bowl L 17
Tampa, FL

# 20 Florida Gators vs. #21 Iowa Hawkeyes

39. Cotton Bowl L 18
Arlington, TX

# 12 Western Michigan Broncos vs. # 8 Wisconsin-Madison Badgers

40. Rose Bowl L 19
Pasadena, CA

# 9 Southern California Trojans vs. # 5 Pennsylvania State Nittany Lions

41. Sugar Bowl L 20
New Orleans, LA

# 17 Auburn Tigers vs. # 7 Oklahoma Sooners

42. National Championship W 22
Tampa, FL

# 3 Clemson Tigers vs. # 1 Alabama Crimson Tide

Results: 22-20 (52%)

Sunday, January 08, 2017

NFL Wildcard Weekend Results

NOT PREDICTIONS.. sorta

1. Raiders (12-4) at Texans (9-7) W 1
2. Lions (9-7) at Seahawks (10-5-1) W 2
3. Dolphins (10-6) at Steelers (11-5) W 3
4. Giants (11-5) at Packers (10-6) L 1

Wildcard Weekend Results: 3-1 (75%)
Overall Results: 121-137 (47%)

Lions finish 9-8
Dolphins finish 10-7
Giants finish 11-6
Raiders finish 12-5

Friday, January 06, 2017

NFL Wildcard Weekend

NOT PREDICTIONS

Final Regular Season Results: 118-136 (46%)

For the most part though, these are predictions for this weekend. The games do not seem too exciting, and these are the teams I would generally support over the others. However, I almost want to see the underdogs win for Miami, Detroit, and Oakland, who received such a bad break in regards to their QB situation. I will always root against Green Bay though.

1. Raiders (12-4) at Texans (9-7)
2. Lions (9-7) at Seahawks (10-5-1)
3. Dolphins (10-6) at Steelers (11-5)
4. Giants (11-5) at Packers (10-6)

Monday, January 02, 2017

NFL Week 17 Results

NOT PREDICTIONS

1. Ravens (8-7) at Bengals (5-9-1) W 1
2. Panthers (6-9) at Buccaneers (8-7) L 1
3. Texans (9-6) at Titans (8-7) W 2
4. Jaguars (3-12) at Colts (7-8) W 3
5. Patriots (13-2) at Dolphins (10-5) L 2
6. Bears (3-12) at Vikings (7-8) L 3
7. Bills (7-8) at Jets (4-11) L 4
8. Cowboys (13-2) at Eagles (6-9) L 5
9. Browns (1-14) at Steelers (10-5) W 4
10. Saints (7-8) at Falcons (10-5) L 6
11. Giants (10-5) at Redskins (8-6-1) L 7
12. Raiders (12-3) at Broncos (8-7) W 5
13. Cardinals (6-8-1) at Rams (4-11) W 6
14. Chiefs (11-4) at Chargers (5-10) W 7
15. Seahawks (9-5-1) at 49ers (2-13) W 8
16. Packers (9-6) at Lions (9-6) L 8

Week 17 Results: 8-8 (50%)
Final Regular Season Results: 118-136 (46%)

____________________________________________________________

Browns finish 1-15
49ers finish 2-14
Jaguars finish 3-13
Bears finish 3-13 (who cares, the Cubs won the World Series!)
Rams finish 4-12
Chargers finish 5-11
Jets finish 5-11
Panthers finish 6-10
Bengals finish 6-9-1
Eagles finish 7-9
Saints finish 7-9
Bills finish 7-9
Cardinals finish 7-8-1
Colts finish 8-8
Vikings finish 8-8
Ravens finish 8-8
Redskins finish 8-7-1
Broncos finish 9-7
Buccaneers finish 9-7
Titans finish 9-7

Wednesday, December 28, 2016

NFL Week 17 Games

Overall Results: 110-128 (46%)

NOT PREDICTIONS

1. Ravens (8-7) at Bengals (5-9-1)
2. Panthers (6-9) at Buccaneers (8-7)
3. Texans (9-6) at Titans (8-7)
4. Jaguars (3-12) at Colts (7-8)
5. Patriots (13-2) at Dolphins (10-5)
6. Bears (3-12) at Vikings (7-8)
7. Bills (7-8) at Jets (4-11)
8. Cowboys (13-2) at Eagles (6-9)
9. Browns (1-14) at Steelers (10-5)
10. Saints (7-8) at Falcons (10-5)
11. Giants (10-5) at Redskins (8-6-1)
12. Raiders (12-3) at Broncos (8-7)
13. Cardinals (6-8-1) at Rams (4-11)
14. Chiefs (11-4) at Chargers (5-10)
15. Seahawks (9-5-1) at 49ers (2-13)
16. Packers (9-6) at Lions (9-6)

Tuesday, December 27, 2016

NFL Week 16 Results

NOT PREDICTIONS

1. Giants (10-4) at Eagles (5-9) L 1
2. Dolphins (9-5) at Bills (7-7) L 2
3. Falcons (9-5) at Panthers (6-8) L 3
4. Redskins (7-6-1) at Bears (3-11) L 4
5. Chargers (5-9) at Browns (0-14) L 5
6. Vikings (7-7) at Packers (8-6) L 6
7. Titans (8-6) at Jaguars (2-12) L 7
8. Jets (4-10) at Patriots (12-2) L 8
9. Colts (7-7) at Raiders (11-3) L 9
10. Buccaneers (8-6) at Saints (6-8) W 1
11. 49ers (1-13) at Rams (4-10) L 10
12. Cardinals (5-8-1) at Seahawks (9-4-1) W 2
13. Bengals (5-8-1) at Texans (8-6) L 11
14. Ravens (8-6) at Steelers (9-5) W 3
15. Broncos (8-6) at Chiefs (10-4) W 4
16. Lions (9-5) at Cowboys (12-2) W 5

Week 16 Results: 5-11 (31%)
Overall Results: 110-128 (46%)

Wednesday, December 21, 2016

NFL Week 16 Games

Overall Results: 105-117 (47%)

 NOT PREDICTIONS

1. Giants (10-4) at Eagles (5-9)
2. Dolphins (9-5) at Bills (7-7)
3. Falcons (9-5) at Panthers (6-8)
4. Redskins (7-6-1) at Bears (3-11)
5. Chargers (5-9) at Browns (0-14)
6. Vikings (7-7) at Packers (8-6)
7. Titans (8-6) at Jaguars (2-12)
8. Jets (4-10) at Patriots (12-2)
9. Colts (7-7) at Raiders (11-3)
10. Buccaneers (8-6) at Saints (6-8)
11. 49ers (1-13) at Rams (4-10)
12. Cardinals (5-8-1) at Seahawks (9-4-1)
13. Bengals (5-8-1) at Texans (8-6)
14. Ravens (8-6) at Steelers (9-5)
15. Broncos (8-6) at Chiefs (10-4)
16. Lions (9-5) at Cowboys (12-2)

Tuesday, December 20, 2016

NFL Week 15 Results

NOT PREDICTIONS

1. Rams (4-9) at Seahawks (8-4-1) W 1
2. Dolphins (8-5) at Jets (4-9) W 2
3. Eagles (5-8) at Ravens (7-6) W 3
4. Browns (0-13) at Bills (6-7) W 4
5. Packers (7-6) at Bears (3-10) L 1
6. Jaguars (2-11) at Texans (7-6) W 5
7. Titans (7-6) at Chiefs (10-3) L 2
8. Colts (6-7) at Vikings (7-6) W 6
9. Lions (9-4) at Giants (9-4) W 7
10. Steelers (8-5) at Bengals (5-7-1) L 3
11. Saints (6-8) at Cardinals (5-7-1) W 8
12. 49ers (1-12) at Falcons (8-5) W 9
13. Patriots (11-2) at Broncos (8-5) L 4
14. Raiders (10-3) at Chargers (5-8) L 5
15. Buccaneers (8-5) at Cowboys (11-2) L 6
16. Panthers (5-8) at Redskins (7-5-1) W 10

Week 15 Results: 10-6 (63%)
Overall Results: 105-117 (47%)

Friday, December 16, 2016

2016 Election Prediction Results

Now that all the races are finalized, I am going to take a look at how I did. The analysis of this election may wait a bit, but I just wanted to look at the nuts and bolts of my prediction and the record I accomplished as an amateur this cycle.

I sure as heck got many aspects of the Presidential race wrong (but so did those who were certain that Donald Trump would finish comfortably ahead of Hillary Clinton in the popular vote), and my record on Gubernatorial and U.S. Senate races were not all that stellar. However, when it came to predicting the U.S. House races, wow, I did pretty well. I even did better than I did in 2014 and I would not have thought that was possible. Is it because there are just so many fewer truly competitive races these days? That may have something to do with it, but I do not see any professional political prognosticators who attempted to call all 435 races matching my total.
___________________________________________________________________________
First, let's look at the Electoral College results of this horrific Presidential election. Everything I got wrong was in incorrectly predicting victories for Hillary Clinton, without truly grasping how totally inept and horrible she was as a candidate.

Thus, the moral disgrace that is the soon to be 45th President of the United States, made me look foolish, by winning the election and by making my predictions of the following incorrect:

Florida
Maine 2 (but that's not even a state)
Michigan
North Carolina
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin

Nate Silver and many other political geeks join me in such "disgrace" although they may have been less stubborn about Ohio than I.
________________________________________________________________________________
Governors-

Not a whole lot of races this cycle, but I did get three wrong, all of which were won by Republicans, which I am happy about, I guess. Am I still even a Republican? These are confusing times. I am definitely not a Democrat though.

Indiana- Eric Holcomb won pretty solidly. So much for that whole state being a battleground

Missouri- Another Midwestern Eric, this one named Greitens, definitely surprised me by winning. When I initially wrote about this race, I had no idea that Greitens was Jewish. If he is a successful Governor, he could be someone to watch in the future.

New Hampshire- Chris Sununu. I originally predicted a Sununu tossup win, then changed it at the end to have him losing in a tossup. I am glad he won. No state had more confounding election results this cycle than New Hampshire, and it definitely goes against their tradition of either one party or the other taking everything in most cycles. Nonetheless, Sununu was really the only GOP win there this year.

2016 Gubernatorial record:  9-3 (75%)

Past cycles-
2006: 35-1 (97%)
2008: 10-1 (91%)
2010: 34-3 (92%)
2012: 9-2 (82%)
2014: 32-4 (89%)

__________________________________________________________________________________

U.S. Senate-

One bad call went against Republicans and two went against Democrats. I guess I will take that, though I am sorry to see the sole GOP prediction loss. I am also sorry to see, though not surprised, Mark Kirk, whom has been either my Congressman or U.S. Senator since 2001 go down to defeat this year. I no longer have any Republican representing me in Washington D.C. in Congress, or in Springfield, as part of the Illinois General Assembly

New Hampshire- I waivered on Kelly Ayotte, but ultimately predicted she would narrowly pull it off. Sadly, she did not. She hurt herself with centrists by being too pro-Trump in an initial debate and then when she made the decision to finally break with him (and announce she would write in Mike Pence for President), the Trump fans abandoned her in significant numbers as well.

Pennsylvania- I was glad to see that Pat Toomey hung on against what was believed to be late momentum against him on behalf of his Democrat opponent. As we know, the polls in Pennsylvania were a bit off.

Wisconsin- Lo and behold, Ron Johnson beats Russ Feingold again. I never totally ruled him out, but did not expect him to win. Neither did most Republican political observers. Democrats feel a whole lot worse about this loss, once again though.

2016 U.S. Senate record: 31-3 (91%)

Past cycles-
2006: 31-2 (94%)
2008: 34-1 (97%)
2010: 34-3 (92%)
2012: 28-5 (85%)
2014: 36-0 (100%)
_________________________________________________________________________________

U.S. House-

First, a Housekeeping matter, pun intended, when reviewing my entries from October, there was one district, OH-8 to be exact, where I neglected to put "Safe R" next to the race for new GOP incumbent Warren Davidson, but that was definitely my prediction, as it was included in the totals.

Next, while these do not count towards the party results, the states of California, Louisiana, and Washington had some races where two candidates of the same party faced off in the general election. I predicted the specific winners of those and got most of them right, but unlike 2014, missed a couple.

In California 44, Democrat Nanette Barragan narrowly beat the other Democrat I had given it to. In last weekend's runoff of Louisiana 3, Republican Clay Higgins, "The Cajun John Wayne" fairly easily beat a more establishment Republican. I realized that would happen, but did not bother to alter the pre-November prediction

Incorrect Republican predictions:

1. FL 7- longtime incumbent John Mica, reminded voters too much of "the swamp" and went down to defeat at the hands of a Democrat neophyte

2. IL 10- in my neighboring district, anti-Trump Republican Bob Dold, as he did in 2012, went down to defeat during the Presidential cycle at the hands of Democrat Brad Schneider. A more unified party behind Dold would have been helpful, but the truth is that it is a very tough district during a Presidential year and Clinton trounced Trump there. As was the case in 2012, Dold led all night and it looked like a victory against the odds was possible, and then a late dump of votes from Lake County had him losing. He came back to unseat Schneider in 2014. Maybe that can happen again in 2018 and those two can be destined to trade that seat back and forth some more.

Incorrect Democrat predictions:

1. MN 2- to my surprise, controversial conservative talk radio host Jason Lewis beat a highly touted Democrat to keep a seat in GOP hands.

2. NE 2- Omaha, home-base of the World Champion Chicago Cubs owning Ricketts Family, saw one-term fluke Democrat Brad Ashford lose to Republican Don Bacon.

3. NY 19- Longtime GOP politico John Faso beat left-wing activist Zephyr Teachout to keep a seat Republican. I am glad that happened, but I thought she might have had a slight edge.

4. TX 23- Freshman Congressman Will Hurd, one of two African-American GOP House members repeated the 2014 result when he beat then incumbent Hispanic Democrat Pete Gallego. This was the only competitive Texas Congressional race and am glad to have gotten this one wrong.

2016 U.S. House record: 429-6 (99%)

Past cycles:
2006: 416-19 (96%)
2008: 418-17 (96%)
2010: 414-21 (95%)
2012: 415-20 (95%)
2014: 426-9 (98%)
____________________________________________________________________________

2016 Grand Total: 469-12 (98%)

Past cycles:
2006: 482-22 (96%)
2008: 462-19 (96%)
2010: 482-27 (95%)
2012: 452-27 (94%)
2014: 494-13 (97%)





Wednesday, December 14, 2016

NFL Week 15 Games

Overall Results: 95-111 (46%)

NOT PREDICTIONS

1. Rams (4-9) at Seahawks (8-4-1)
2. Dolphins (8-5) at Jets (4-9)
3. Eagles (5-8) at Ravens (7-6)
4. Browns (0-13) at Bills (6-7)
5. Packers (7-6) at Bears (3-10)
6. Jaguars (2-11) at Texans (7-6)
7. Titans (7-6) at Chiefs (10-3)
8. Colts (6-7) at Vikings (7-6)
9. Lions (9-4) at Giants (9-4)
10. Steelers (8-5) at Bengals (5-7-1)
11. Saints (6-8) at Cardinals (5-7-1)
12. 49ers (1-12) at Falcons (8-5)
13. Patriots (11-2) at Broncos (8-5)
14. Raiders (10-3) at Chargers (5-8)
15. Buccaneers (8-5) at Cowboys (11-2)
16. Panthers (5-8) at Redskins (7-5-1)

Tuesday, December 13, 2016

NFL Week 14 Results

NOT PREDICTIONS


1. Raiders (10-2) at Chiefs (9-3) W 1
2. Steelers (7-5) at Bills (6-6) L 1
3. Chargers (5-7) at Panthers (4-8) L 2
4. Bengals (4-7-1) at Browns (0-12) W 2
5. Bears (3-9) at Lions (8-4) L 3
6. Texans (6-6) at Colts (6-6) W 3
7. Vikings (6-6) at Jaguars (2-10) L 4
8. Cardinals (5-6-1) at Dolphins (7-5) W 4
9. Redskins (6-5-1) at Eagles (5-7) L 5
10. Broncos (8-4) at Titans (6-6)W 5
11. Jets (3-9) at 49ers (1-11) W 6
12. Saints (5-7) at Buccaneers (7-5) L 6
13. Seahawks (8-3-1) at Packers (6-6) L 7
14. Falcons (7-5) at Rams (4-8) L 8
15. Cowboys (11-1) at Giants (8-4) L 9
16. Ravens (7-5) at Patriots (10-2) L 10

Week 14 Results: 6-10 (38%)
Overall Results: 95-111 (46%)

Monday, December 12, 2016

2016-2017 Bowl Games

As I do every year, here is a listing of all the college football Bowl games. They will begin on Saturday and each year seem to be growing in number. For the first time in several years, my alma mater will not be playing. Neither will two of the three other large schools that people in the Chicago area tend to have associations with, but those of us who are fans of the Chicago Cubs have no complaints this year.

So, as is typically the case, I really do not have strong rooting interests for these games, but hope to see some strong competition and late game drama. I will list the schools I want to win in bold, even if they may really just be something like a coin toss. The rankings will not be that of the College Football Playoff Committee but of the Associated Press.

1. Celebration Bowl
Atlanta, GA

North Carolina Central Eagles vs. Grambling State Tigers

2. New Mexico Bowl
Albuquerque, NM

New Mexico Lobos vs. Texas at San Antonio Roadrunners

3. Las Vegas Bowl
Las Vegas, NV

Houston Cougars vs. San Diego State Aztecs

4. Camellia Bowl
Montgomery, AL

Appalachian State Mountaineers vs. Toledo Rockets

5. Cure Bowl
Orlando, FL

Central Florida Knights vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves

6. New Orleans Bowl
New Orleans, LA

Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles vs. Louisiana at Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns

7. Beach Bowl
Miami, FL

Central Michigan Chippewas vs. Tulsa Golden Hurricane

8. Boca Raton Bowl
Boca Raton, FL

Memphis Tigers vs. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

9. Poinsettia Bowl
San Diego, CA

Brigham Young Cougars vs .Wyoming Cowboys

10. Potato Bowl
Boise, ID

Idaho Vandals vs. Colorado State Rams

11. Bahamas Bowl
Nassau, The Bahamas

Eastern Michigan Eagles vs. Old Dominion Monarchs

12. Armed Forces Bowl
Fort Worth, TX

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs vs United States Naval Academy Midshipmen

13. Dollar General Bowl
Mobile, AL

Ohio Bobcats vs. Troy Trojans

14. Hawai'i Bowl
Halawa, HI

 Hawaiʻi at Mānoa Rainbow Warriors vs. Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders

15. St. Petersburg Bowl
St. Petersburg, FL

Miami RedHawks vs. Mississippi State University of Agriculture and Applied Science Bulldogs

16. Quick Lane Bowl
Detroit, MI

Maryland, College Park Terrapins vs. Boston College Eagles

17. Independence Bowl
Shreveport, LA

North Carolina State Wolfpack vs. Vanderbilt Commodores

18. Heart of Dallas Bowl
Dallas, TX

United States Military Academy at West Point Black Knights vs. North Texas Mean Green

19. Military Bowl
Annapolis, MD

# 23 Temple Owls vs. Wake Forest Demon Deacons

20. Holiday Bowl
San Diego, CA

Minnesota Twin Cities Golden Gophers vs. Washington State Cougars

21. Cactus Bowl
Phoenix, AZ

Boise State Broncos vs. Baylor Bears

22.  Pinstripe Bowl
Bronx, NY

# 22 Pittsburgh Panthers vs. Northwestern Wildcats

23. Athletic Bowl
Orlando, FL

# 14 West Virginia Mountaineers vs. Miami Hurricanes

24. Foster Farms Bowl
Santa Clara, CA

Indiana Bloomington Hoosiers vs. Utah Utes

25. Texas Bowl
Houston, TX

Texas A&M Aggies vs. Kansas State Wildcats

26. Birmingham Bowl
Birmingham, AL

# 25 South Florida Bulls vs. South Carolina Gamecocks

27. Belk Bowl
Charlotte, NC

Arkansas Razorbacks vs. # 18 Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State Hokies

28. Alamo Bowl
San Antonio, TX

# 13 Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. # 11 Colorado Boulder Buffaloes

29. Liberty Bowl
Memphis, TN

Georgia Bulldogs vs. Texas Christian Horned Frogs

30. Sun Bowl
El Paso, TX

# 16 Leland Stanford Junior Cardinal vs. North Carolina at Chapel Hill Tar Heels

31. Music City Bowl
Nashville, TN

# 24 Nebraska-Lincoln Cornhuskers vs. Tennessee, Knoxville Volunteers

32. Arizona Bowl
Tuscon, AZ

South Alabama Jaguars vs. United States Air Force Academy Falcons

33. Orange Bowl
Miami Gardens, FL

# 6 Michigan Wolverines vs. # 10 Florida State Seminoles

34. Citrus Bowl
Orlando, FL

# 19 Louisiana State University and Agricultural and Mechanical College Tigers vs. #15 Louisville Cardinals

35. TaxSlayer Bowl
Jacksonville, FL

Georgia Institute of Technology Yellow Jackets vs. Kentucky Wildcats

36. Peach Bowl
Atlanta, GA

# 4 Washington Huskies vs. # 1 Alabama Crimson Tide

37. Fiesta Bowl
Glendale, AZ

# 2 Ohio State Buckeyes vs. # 3 Clemson Tigers

38. Outback Bowl
Tampa, FL

# 20 Florida Gators vs. #21 Iowa Hawkeyes

39. Cotton Bowl
Arlington, TX

# 12 Western Michigan Broncos vs. # 8 Wisconsin-Madison Badgers

40. Rose Bowl
Pasadena, CA

# 9 Southern California Trojans vs. # 5 Pennsylvania State Nittany Lions

41. Sugar Bowl
New Orleans, LA

# 17 Auburn Tigers vs. # 7 Oklahoma Sooners

42. National Championship
Tampa, FL

Peach Bowl Winner vs. Fiesta Bowl Winner


Wednesday, December 07, 2016

NFL Week 14 Games

Overall Results: 89-101 (47%)

NOT PREDICTIONS

1. Raiders (10-2) at Chiefs (9-3)
2. Steelers (7-5) at Bills (6-6)
3. Chargers (5-7) at Panthers (4-8)
4. Bengals (4-7-1) at Browns (0-12)
5. Bears (3-9) at Lions (8-4)
6. Texans (6-6) at Colts (6-6)
7. Vikings (6-6) at Jaguars (2-10)
8. Cardinals (5-6-1) at Dolphins (7-5)
9. Redskins (6-5-1) at Eagles (5-7)
10. Broncos (8-4) at Titans (6-6)
11. Jets (3-9) at 49ers (1-11)
12. Saints (5-7) at Buccaneers (7-5)
13. Seahawks (8-3-1) at Packers (6-6)
14. Falcons (7-5) at Rams (4-8)
15. Cowboys (11-1) at Giants (8-4)
16. Ravens (7-5) at Patriots (10-2)

Tuesday, December 06, 2016

NFL Week 13 Results

NOT PREDICTIONS


1. Cowboys (10-1) at Vikings (6-5) W 1
2. Chiefs (8-3) at Falcons (7-4) W 2
3. Dolphins (7-4) at Ravens (6-5) L 1
4. 49ers (1-10) at Bears (2-9) W 3
5. Eagles (5-6) at Bengals (3-7-1) W 4
6. Texans (6-5) at Packers (5-6) L 2
7. Broncos (7-4) at Jaguars (2-9) W 5
8. Rams (4-7) at Patriots (9-2) W 6
9. Lions (7-4) at Saints (5-6) L 3
10. Bills (6-5) at Raiders (9-2) L 4
11. Redskins (6-4-1) at Cardinals (4-6-1)W 7
12. Giants (8-3) at Steelers (6-5) W 8
13. Buccaneers (6-5) at Chargers (5-6) L 5
14. Panthers (4-7) at Seahawks (7-3-1) W  9
15. Colts (5-6) at Jets (3-8) W 10

Week 13 Results: 10-5 (67%)
Overall Results: 89-101 (47%)

Wednesday, November 30, 2016

NFL Week 13 Games

NOT PREDICTIONS

Overall Results: 79-96 (45%)


1. Cowboys (10-1) at Vikings (6-5)
2. Chiefs (8-3) at Falcons (7-4)
3. Dolphins (7-4) at Ravens (6-5)
4. 49ers (1-10) at Bears (2-9)
5. Eagles (5-6) at Bengals (3-7-1)
6. Texans (6-5) at Packers (5-6)
7. Broncos (7-4) at Jaguars (2-9)
8. Rams (4-7) at Patriots (9-2)
9. Lions (7-4) at Saints (5-6)
10. Bills (6-5) at Raiders (9-2)
11. Redskins (6-4-1) at Cardinals (4-6-1)
12. Giants (8-3) at Steelers (6-5)
13. Buccaneers (6-5) at Chargers (5-6)
14. Panthers (4-7) at Seahawks (7-3-1)
15. Colts (5-6) at Jets (3-8)

Tuesday, November 29, 2016

NFL Week 12 Results

NOT PREDICTIONS

1. Vikings (6-4) at  Lions (6-4) W 1
2. Redskins (6-3-1) at Cowboys (9-1) W 2
3. Steelers (5-5) at Colts (5-5) W 3
4. Cardinals (4-5-1) at Falcons (6-4) L 1
5. Bengals (3-6-1) at Ravens (5-5) L 2
6. Jaguars (2-8) at Bills (5-5) W 4
7. Titans (5-6) at Bears (2-8) L 3
8. Giants (7-3) at Browns (0-11) L 4
9. Chargers (4-6) at Texans (6-4) L 5
10. 49ers (1-9) at Dolphins (6-4) W 5
11. Rams (4-6) at Saints (4-6) W 6
12. Seahawks (7-2-1) at Buccaneers (5-5) W 7
13. Panthers (4-6) at Raiders (8-2) W 8
14. Patriots (8-2) at Jets (3-7) L 6
15. Chiefs (7-3) at Broncos (7-3) W 9
16. Packers (4-6) at Eagles (5-5) W 10

Week 12 Results: 10-6 (63%)
Overall Results: 79-96 (45%)

Monday, November 28, 2016

Viva La Libertad

Death to Tyrants

I just had to make a post about the death of Fidel Castro this past weekend. I am postponing my more formal thoughts on the Presidential election results, but still eventually plan to get around to that. I just want to wait for a couple more aspects of the Transition to take place, especially as it relates to the impending nomination for Secretary of State, before I offer more complete thoughts. Before the end of the year, I also want to do a lengthy post on the World Champion Chicago Cubs, but that might wait until the dawn of the next baseball season.

Anyways, when I first began this blog, back in August of 2006, one of my very first posts was the news that Fidel Castro, the dictator of Cuba, had taken ill and was temporarily ceding power to his brother Raul. Many of us in America and certainly privately in Cuba as well, hoped that this was the beginning of the end for one of the 20th Century's most brutal tyrants.While his hold on Cuba would largely dissipate after that event, he did manage to live another 10 years, and reached the age of 90. He is gone at last though. El fin. I wanted to note the event.

While it is good that Castro will now face the eternal judgment in death that he avoided in life, all is not well on the island nation 90 miles off the U.S. shores. Raul Castro remains in power, and while relations have certainly changed between this country and Cuba during the Obama years, the cause of freedom, in all areas, especially the right to free and fair elections must never not be demanded. Until that day happens, Cuba will remain under tyrannical Communist oppression. Hopefully one day, just as the death of Fidel took some time, I hope to be able to note that there is truly a Cuba Libre.

Now, there have definitely been some interesting reactions to the death of Fidel Castro that I wanted to touch on, both in America and around the world, as the former leader of Cuba remains an extremely controversial and divisive figure. I guess it is hard for me to understand how anyone could want to go out of their way to find the "good side" of a brutal murderer and terrorists who ruined so many lives and destroyed so many families over such a long period of time.

The statement of outgoing U.S. President Barack Obama was equivocal and weak. He seems more interested in his own legacy than pointing out the truths of all those who have suffered under Castro, and who are now celebrating his death, in Miami and other places. All I can say positive about Obama's statement was that it was nowhere near as bad as the embarrassing gushing released via press release by Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. That was perhaps in line with leftists around the world who hold a sick fascination with honoring Castro, but even many in Canada felt it was way overboard. Trudeau embarrassed his office  and his country in a way that might only be equaled by what Donald Trump will do here one day.

Speaking of whom, his hours late "Fidel is dead!" tacky Tweet aside, the President-Elect released a statement about Castro's death that was extremely well-said. Obviously, someone wrote it for him. It was a strong pro-American, and pro-freedom statement though that fit well along strong words issued by other Republicans and Democrats, but mostly Republicans. Of course, I cannot get it out of my head that there is evidence that Trump, as a private citizen, openly sought to violate the U.S. sanctions on Cuba, in order to line his own pockets. He was not caring much about those languishing under Castro's brutality at the time.

So, the reactions were quite mixed and interesting. The passing of Fidel Castro would be a great opportunity for people to examine their worldviews and their values and to think about what freedom and liberty really mean.

Those on the left, in America and around the world, who profess fear that Donald Trump will become a dictator but at the same time heap praise on the Castro legacy are pure hypocrites.

There are many reasons why there it is highly unlikely that Trump will ever be close to a Castro. I feel that is obvious to state. However, the same people who rightly denounce Castro and his assaults on freedom and liberty but see nothing at all troubling about Trump, the forces that led to his election, and aspects of his persona and appeal are also kidding themselves.

Donald Trump may turn out to be a horrible President, but I am practically certain he will never be a brutal dictator.  I have gotten the sense that though if he could get away with it, he might. Castro had his infamous firing squads in Cuba. Trump simply muses during a campaign about how he could shoot people in the head and get away with it. The incoming President of the United States has also of course expressed his profound respect and admiration for Vladimir Putin and other tyrants in recent and not so recent history.

While there might be similarities, there are of course vast differences that comfort me as an American. We have free and fair elections for one, and a free press, even when they might prove to be inconvenient to some. We also have term limits and checks and balances and a long tradition of Americans willing to speak up unabashedly for freedom, including the need to extend it to those who were not enjoying enough of it as part of their G-d given rights as Americans. We also of course have freedom of religion in America.

Again, I hope one day the people of Cuba, as well as those living in tyrannical regimes all around the world one day know the freedoms that Americans enjoy. For people of all lands though, including ours, it will always be necessary to keep an eye on those in power and to guard our rights and our liberties above all else. Freedom and liberty must always prevail over tyranny and authoritarianism, in any form.

Wednesday, November 23, 2016

NFL Week 12 Games

NOT PREDICTIONS

Overall Results: 69-90 (43%)

Happy Thanksgiving

1. Vikings (6-4) at  Lions (6-4)
2. Redskins (6-3-1) at Cowboys (9-1)
3. Steelers (5-5) at Colts (5-5)
4. Cardinals (4-5-1) at Falcons (6-4)
5. Bengals (3-6-1) at Ravens (5-5)
6. Jaguars (2-8) at Bills (5-5)
7. Titans (5-6) at Bears (2-8)
8. Giants (7-3) at Browns (0-11)
9. Chargers (4-6) at Texans (6-4)
10. 49ers (1-9) at Dolphins (6-4)
11. Rams (4-6) at Saints (4-6)
12. Seahawks (7-2-1) at Buccaneers (5-5)
13. Panthers (4-6) at Raiders (8-2)
14. Patriots (8-2) at Jets (3-7)
15. Chiefs (7-3) at Broncos (7-3)
16. Packers (4-6) at Eagles (5-5)

Tuesday, November 22, 2016

NFL Week 11 Results

NOT PREDICTIONS

1. Saints (4-5) at Panthers (3-6) W 1
2. Bills (4-5) at Bengals (3-5-1) W 2
3. Steelers (4-5) at Browns (0-10) W 3
4. Ravens (5-4) at Cowboys (8-1) L 1
5. Jaguars (2-7) at Lions (5-4) L 2
6. Titans (5-5) at Colts (4-5) L 3
7. Buccaneers (4-5) at Chiefs (7-2) L 4
8. Cardinals (4-4-1) at Vikings (5-4) L 5
9. Bears (2-7) at Giants (6-3) L 6
10. Dolphins (5-4) at Rams (4-5) W 4
11. Patriots (7-2) at 49ers (1-8) W 5
12. Eagles (5-4) at Seahawks (6-2-1) L 7
13. Packers (4-5) at Redskins (5-3-1) L 8
14. Texans (6-3) vs. Raiders (7-2) in Mexico City L 9

Week 11 Results: 5-9 (36%)
Overall Results: 69-90 (43%)

Wednesday, November 16, 2016

NFL Week 10 Results and Week 11 Games

I am going to aim to write a post about the election results over Thanksgiving Weekend.


Week 10


NOT PREDICTIONS


1. Browns (0-9) at Ravens (4-4) L 1
2. Bears (2-6) at Buccaneers (3-5) L 2
3. Broncos (6-3) at Saints (4-4) W 1
4. Texans (5-3) at Jaguars (2-6) W 2
5. Rams (3-5) at Jets (3-6) L 3
6. Chiefs (6-2) at Panthers (3-5) W 3
7. Vikings (5-3) at Redskins (4-3-1) W 4
8. Packers (4-4) at Titans (4-5) W 5
9. Falcons (6-3) at Eagles (4-4)  W 6
10. Dolphins (4-4) at Chargers (4-5) L 4
11. 49ers (1-7) at Cardinals (3-4-1) L 5
12. Cowboys (7-1) at Steelers (4-4) L 6
13. Seahawks (5-2-1) at Patriots (7-1) L 7
14. Bengals (3-4-1) at Giants (5-3) L 8

Week 10 Results: 6-8 (43%)
Overall Results: 64-81 (44%)
________________________________________________________________________________

Week 11

NOT PREDICTIONS

1. Saints (4-5) at Panthers (3-6)
2. Bills (4-5) at Bengals (3-5-1)
3. Steelers (4-5) at Browns (0-10)
4. Ravens (5-4) at Cowboys (8-1)
5. Jaguars (2-7) at Lions (5-4)
6. Titans (5-5) at Colts (4-5)
7. Buccaneers (4-5) at Chiefs (7-2)
8. Cardinals (4-4-1) at Vikings (5-4)
9. Bears (2-7) at Giants (6-3)
10. Dolphins (5-4) at Rams (4-5)
11. Patriots (7-2) at 49ers (1-8)
12. Eagles (5-4) at Seahawks (6-2-1)
13. Packers (4-5) at Redskins (5-3-1)
14. Texans (6-3) vs. Raiders (7-2) in Mexico City

Wednesday, November 09, 2016

NFL Week 9 Results and Week 10 Games, plus you know..

I had to work all day today, on very little sleep, and have since late last night already done some venting online regarding the surprising Presidential results. It made me feel a bit better, but I am still profoundly perplexed and concerned, to put it mildly. If I feel that way as a conservative, once-proud Republican, I can only imagine how actual Democrats feel. I have a lot of thoughts about this Presidential election that I want to put on paper so to speak, but I am not going to disrupt my life anymore than I need to at the moment. So, I might do that on Saturday, or maybe some time after. There is a lot of "blame" to go around. My post may be very long.

I will just say now that I can handle being wrong about the result of a Presidential election, and any sort of mocking or schadenfreude that might come along with that, but I will never consider myself wrong for having opposed Donald John Trump Sr. and what he represents throughout this entire campaign. I will always hold out hope for the success of my country, but that may be up to a Higher Authority than a President. Everything I know about Trump leads me to believe he will be worthy of my unyielding opposition for every day that he remains in public life.

There is though a sense of gratitude that I live in what I still consider the greatest country in the world, which allows me the right to have that agenda and the knowledge that many others will stand with me if anyone ever tries to take it away from us.

Democracy is a beautiful thing, even when it leads to painful results, and even when the people get it wrong, as they have before this time, and even when there is not a real worthwhile choice to start, as was the case this time. For now, we can just hope for the best and focus on what is good in the world, such as the Chicago Cubs being World Series Champions (I will get around to a post about them one day too when I need to be cheered up.) At least over the past 24 hours, the President, President-Elect, and his defeated opponent, all managed to strike the right tone, as America prepares to enter a new chapter.

Now, on to the completely boring NFL season...

Week 9


NOT PREDICTIONS

1. Falcons (5-3) at Buccaneers (3-4) L 1
2. Cowboys (6-1) at Browns (0-8) L 2
3. Jets (3-5) at Dolphins (3-4) W 1
4. Eagles (4-3) at Giants (4-3) W 2
5. Jaguars (2-5) at Chiefs (5-2) W 3
6. Lions (4-4) at Vikings (5-2) W 4
7. Steelers (4-3) at Ravens (3-4) L 3
8. Saints (3-4) at 49ers (1-6) L 4
9. Panthers (2-5) at Rams (3-4) W 5
10. Titans (4-4) at Chargers (3-5) L 5
11. Colts (3-5) at Packers (4-3) W 6
12. Broncos (6-2) at Raiders (6-2) L 6
13. Bills (4-4) at Seahawks (4-2-1) L 7

Week 9 Results: 6-7 (46%)
Overall Results: 58-73 (44%)
_______________________________________________________________________

Week 10

NOT PREDICTIONS


1. Browns (0-9) at Ravens (4-4)
2. Bears (2-6) at Buccaneers (3-5)
3. Broncos (6-3) at Saints (4-4)
4. Texans (5-3) at Jaguars (2-6)
5. Rams (3-5) at Jets (3-6)
6. Chiefs (6-2) at Panthers (3-5)
7. Vikings (5-3) at Redskins (4-3-1)
8. Packers (4-4) at Titans (4-5)
9. Falcons (6-3) at Eagles (4-4) 
10. Dolphins (4-4) at Chargers (4-5)
11. 49ers (1-7) at Cardinals (3-4-1)
12. Cowboys (7-1) at Steelers (4-4)
13. Seahawks (5-2-1) at Patriots (7-1)
14. Bengals (3-4-1) at Giants (5-3)

Monday, November 07, 2016

Final 2016 Predictions

1 Day Until Election Day

Needless to say, this is a pretty different feeling for me on the eve of an Election. Usually, I am a nervous wreck, either pessimistic or optimistic. This year, I feel nothing except regret about what could have been and concern for the country. I have spent over a couple decades now as a political junkie, and I probably will remain one, but I could also see myself just becoming a "normal person" and hoping for the best, without really being too invested. After all, I got to see the Chicago Cubs win the World Series! That just may be the trade I needed to make.

For now, I will hope that every Republican nominee in the country not named Donald Trump or running with Donald Trump wins. With the possible exception of Joe Arpaio.

Many of those Republicans are good people, but some I have lost all sorts of respect for. In time, we will see if conservatism or populism prevails in the GOP and just how bad the split will be. If things are to ever return to "normalcy" though, we need as many Republicans as possible in office to serve alongside, and when necessary in opposition to the agenda of the new President.

It was just two years ago when Republicans achieved glorious results, nearly from coast to coast in the midterms and then consciously threw it all away. To my embarrassment, there are more racists and bigots in my party than I realized and more who may not be that way themselves but are willing to overlook it. Not me though. Not this year and not ever. I hope the side of inclusive conservatism ultimately prevails in the Republican Party, but if not, I will hope that a new home opens up for it. I would not feel welcomed in either major party.

Hillary Clinton is truly unworthy of the Presidency in a plethora of ways, even as those on my side who dislike her have become manically unhinged in trying to prove their opposition to her. It just seems like they are feeling massive guilt about Trump and are trying to compensate for it.

Hillary is horrible, but Trump is worse. Far, far worse. While I did not and could never vote for her, I do not think she is insane. Her major opponent might be. She knowingly put the security of the U.S. at risk and that's easily a disqualifying factor to me, but I do not think she is actually loyal to the regime of hostile country. I cannot say that about Donald Trump.

In a matter of hours,  I believe Donald Trump will have "failed hugely" and for America, that will be good. The work is not done though until Trumpism and what it represents is thoroughly defeated.

Now, on to the predictions. These are changes and totals only

Presidency:

IA- Tossup Trump, change from Tossup Clinton

Electoral College- Clinton 341, Trump 197
Popular vote guess 50-44
____________________________________________________________________
Governors:

New Hampshire- Tossup (D)- change from Tossup (R)
Vermont- Tossup (R)- change from Tossup (D)


Governor race predictions:

9 D (1 Safe, 2 Likely, 4 Leans, 2 Tossup)
3 R (1 Safe, 1 Likely, 1 Tossup)


Overall prediction: 20 D, 30 R

Democrat net gain of 1
__________________________________________________________________________

 U.S. Senate:

Arizona- Leans Republican- change from Likely Republican
Colorado- Leans Democrat- change from Likely Democrat
Illinois- Likely Democrat- change from Leans Democrat
Missouri- Tossup (R)- change from Leans Republican
Nevada- Tossup (D)- change from Tossup (R)
North Carolina- Tossup (R)- change from Leans R
Pennsylvania- Tossup (D)- change from Tossup (R)

Senate races predicted:
13 D (8 Safe, 1 Likely, 2 Leans,  2 Tossup)
21 R (9 Safe, 5 Likely, 3 Leans, 4 Tossup)

Overall prediction: 49 D, 51 R


Democrat Net Gain of 3

My prediction is that Republicans just barely hang on to the Senate majority but realistically, that may not happen. New Hampshire will probably tell the tale and Republicans will have to sweat out more than Democrats. Assuming the GOP is not in shambles in 2018, the midterm map should be quite favorable towards either regaining or increasing the majority.

___________________________________________________________________________


U.S. House


196 D (158 Safe, 25 Likely, 9 Leans, 4 Tossup)
239 R (161 Safe, 51 Likely, 19 Leans, 8 Tossup)

Democrats pick up 8 seats
Republicans maintain Majority 

There is definitely some room to spare for Republicans after the 2014 blow-out of Democrats. The unpopularity of Hillary Clinton in so many places across the country is the only reason that Democrats will not be able to gain more than 20 seats max and be competitive for taking over the House.

Sunday, November 06, 2016

U.S. House Predictions Part 16

2 Days Until Election Day

Texas

1. Louie Gohmert R (Romney 72%) Safe R
2. Ted Poe R (Romney 63%) Safe R
3. Sam Johnson R (Romney 64%) Safe R
4. John Ratcliffe R (Romney 74%) Safe R
5. Jeb Hensarling R (Romney 65%) Safe R
6. Joe Barton R (Romney 58%) Safe R
7. John Culberson R (Romney 60%) Safe R
8. Kevin Brady R (Romney 77%) Safe R
9. Al Green D (Obama 78%) Safe D
10. Michael McCaul R (Romney 59%) Safe R
11. Mike Conaway R (Romney 79%) Safe R
12. Kay Granger R (Romney 67%) Safe R
13. Mac Thornberry R (Romney 80%) Safe R
14. Randy Weber R (Romney 59%) Safe R
15. Open (Ruben Hinojosa D)- (Obama 57%) Safe D
16. Beto O'Rourke D (Obama 64%) Safe D
17. Bill Flores R (Romney 60%) Safe R
18. Sheila Jackson Lee D (Obama 765) Safe D
19. Open (Randy Neugebauer R)- (Romney 74%) Safe R
20. Joaquin Castro D (Obama 59%) Safe D
21. Lamar Smith R (Romney 60%) Safe R
22. Pete Olson R (Romney 62%) Safe R
23. Will Hurd R (Romney 51%) Tossup (D)
24. Kenny Marchant R (Romney 60%) Safe R
25. Roger Williams R (Romney 60%) Safe R
26. Michael Burgess R (Romney 68%) Safe R
27. Blake Farenthold R (Romney 61%) Likely R
28. Henry Cuellar D (Obama 60%) Safe D
29. Gene Green D (Obama 66%) Safe D
30. Eddie Bernice Johnson D (Obama 80%) Safe D
31. John Carter R (Romney 60%) Safe R
32. Pete Sessions R (Romney 57%) Safe R
33. Marc Veasey D (Obama 72%) Safe D
34. Filemon Vela D (Obama 61%) Safe D
35. Lloyd Doggett D (Obama 63%) Safe D
36. Brian Babin R (Romney 73%) Safe R

TX current: 11 D, 25 R
TX predicted: 12 D, 24 R

Current total: 175 D, 222 R

Predicted:
182 D (145 Safe, 24 Likely, 9 Leans, 4 Tossup)
215 R (149 Safe, 42 Likely, 17 Leans, 7 Tossup)
_______________________________________________________________________

Utah

1. Rob Bishop R (Romney 78%) Safe R
2. Chris Stewart R (Romney 68%) Safe R
3. Jason Chaffetz R (Romney 79%) Safe R
4. Mia Love R (Romney 68%) Likely R

UT current: 0 D, 4 R
UT predicted: 0 D, 4 R

Current total: 175 D, 226 R

Predicted:
182 D (145 Safe, 24 Likely, 9 Leans, 4 Tossup)
219 R (152 Safe, 43 Likely, 17 Leans, 7 Tossup)
_________________________________________________________________________

Vermont

1. Peter Welch D (Obama 67%) Safe D

VT current: 1 D, 0 R
VT predicted: 1 D, 0 R


Current total: 176 D, 226 R

Predicted:
183 D (146 Safe, 24 Likely, 9 Leans, 4 Tossup)
219 R (152 Safe, 43 Likely, 17 Leans, 7 Tossup)
______________________________________________________________________________

Virginia
  
(redistricted since 2014. Like what I discovered about the North Carolina districts, the 2012 Presidential data appears to only include the two major party nominees. I think the same would have been true for the Florida numbers I presented several days ago)

1. Rob Wittman R (Romney 56%) Safe R
2. Open (Scott Rigell R)- (Romney 51%) Likely R
3. Bobby Scott D (Obama 68%) Safe D
4. Open (Randy Forbes R)- (Obama 61%) Likely D
5. Open (Robert Hurt R)- (Romney 54%) Leans R
6. Bob Goodlatte R (Romney 60%) Likely R
7. Dave Brat R (Romney 56%) Safe R
8. Don Beyer D (Obama 68%) Safe D
9. Morgan Griffith R (Romney 64%) Likely R
10. Barbara Comstock R (Romney 51%) Tossup (R)
11. Gerry Connolly D (Obama 63%) Safe D

VA current: 3 D, 8 R
VA predicted: 4 D, 7 R

Current total: 179 D, 234 R

Predicted:
187 D (149 Safe, 25 Likely, 9 Leans, 4 Tossup)
226 R (154 Safe, 46 Likely, 18 Leans, 8 Tossup)
_____________________________________________________________________

Washington

1. Suzan DelBene D (Obama 54%) Safe D
2. Rick Larsen D (Obama 59%) Safe D
3. Jaime Herrera Beutler R (Romney 50%) Likely R
4. Dan Newhouse R (Romney 60%) Safe R/Likely Newhouse
5. Cathy McMorris Rodgers R (Romney 54%) Likely R
6. Derek Kilmer D (Obama 56%) Safe D
7. Open (Jim McDermott D)- (Obama 79%) Safe D/Leans Jayapal
8. Dave Reichert R (Obama 50%) Likely R
9. Adam Smith D (Obama 68%) Safe D
10. Denny Heck D (Obama 56%) Safe D

WA current: 6 D, 4 R
WA predicted: 6 D, 4 R

Current total: 185 D, 238 R

Predicted:

193 D (155 Safe, 25 Likely, 9 Leans, 4 Tossup)
230 R (155 Safe, 49 Likely, 18 Leans, 8 Tossup)
____________________________________________________________________________

West Virginia

1. David McKinley R (Romney 62%) Safe R
2. Alex Mooney R (Romney 60%) Likely R
3. Evan Jenkins R (Romney 65%) Safe R

WV current: 0 D, 3 R
WV predicted: 0 D, 3 R

Current total: 185 D, 241 R

Predicted:
193 D (155 Safe, 25 Likely, 9 Leans, 4 Tossup)
233 R (157 Safe, 50 Likely, 18 Leans, 8 Tossup)
_____________________________________________________________________________

Wisconsin

1. Paul Ryan R (Romney 52%) Likely R
2. Marc Pocan D (Obama 68%) Safe D
3. Ron Kind D (Obama 55%) Safe D
4. Gwen Moore D (Obama 75%) Safe D
5. Jim Sensenbrenner R (Romney 61%) Safe R
6. Glenn Grothman R (Romney 53%) Safe R
7. Sean Duffy R (Romney 51%) Safe R
8. Open (Reid Ribble R)- (Romney 51%) Leans R

WI current: 3 D, 5 R
WI predicted: 3 D, 5 R

Current total: 188 D, 246 R


Predicted:


196 D (158 Safe, 25 Likely, 9 Leans, 4 Tossup)
238 R (160 Safe, 51 Likely, 19 Leans, 8 Tossup)
______________________________________________________________________________

Wyoming

1. Open (Cynthia Lummis R)- (Romney 69%) Safe R

WY current: 0 D, 1 R
WY predicted: 0 D, 1 R

Current total: 188 D, 247 R


Predicted:


196 D (158 Safe, 25 Likely, 9 Leans, 4 Tossup)
239 R (161 Safe, 51 Likely, 19 Leans, 8 Tossup)
_______________________________________________________________________________-

Democrats pick up 8 seats
Republicans maintain Majority

Saturday, November 05, 2016

Race for the White House Volume 97

3 Days Until Election Day

The Tragic Finale ... or Finally, It's About to be Over

Then again, a week from now, this could be a complete mess and the nation could be teetering on the edge of a crisis.

Anyways, what a week! Not in regards to politics. I pretty much changed the channel whenever discussion of the election has come up this week, but in terms of the Chicago Cubs winning the World Series! I am still in disbelief. This has been an amazing experience though and I hope it defines 2016 in my mind more so than this horrible election. In a few weeks, when I have some time, I intend to write an ode to the 2016 Chicago Cubs and try to give justice to what an incredible thrill their championship season has been and how it will literally never allow me to look at the world of sports the same again, after 32 years of fandom.

Today though, I have to deal with the election and some final Presidential predictions. I think I know who will win, but I have been confounded throughout this cycle. In a world where the Cubs can win the World Series, maybe anything is possible. Maybe this is the Apocalypse. In making these predictions, I probably will not do any revisions before Tuesday. In past cycles, I have gotten nearly every state correct but may just be wrong on a bunch this time. I really do not care. I am rooting against both major party nominees, but especially against Donald Trump, whom I consider to be the most toxic influence on our politics and our civic culture in my lifetime, and long before it.

I actually just got back from voting. It was something I was pretty much dreading, but as I waited in line, I was heartened to see scores of people wearing World Series Champion Chicago Cubs gear. I do not know how they voted but the Cubs can certainly bring us together and I just hope that America will somehow find a way to come together. I said "no thank you" when offered the "I Voted" sticker. I want to forget this election ever happened and just hope the next time I vote, the choices will be different.

Twenty years ago today, I had already voted absentee, but I watched in disappointment as my candidate lost in the first election I voted in. Since that 1996 election, I have never not voted for the Republican candidate for any office. Until today. There is no way in hell I could ever cast a vote for Donald Trump. If his Democrat opponent were remotely worthy of the Presidency, I would have probably voted for that opponent, but that is not true this cycle of Hillary Clinton, nor will it ever be. She will win my state handily, but not with my help. I wrote in Evan McMullin. I wonder if I will even remember his name if I became very elderly. Then, as I always do, I voted straight Republican. Almost nobody I voted for will win, but I still feel it was the right thing to do. I supported candidates who like me refuse to vote for Trump, to those who avoid the question, to those who probably support him openly. They will all have to live with their choice but I still will hold out hope that the Republican Party can be reformed into a principled, conservative party of opportunity and inclusion. If that hope is but a pipedream, and Democrats continue down the road they have been going for decades, I imagine I will be writing in more names in my voting future. For now, I hope the down-ballot damage to Republicans across the country is as minimal as possible.

There is so much speculation and spin surrounding this election on the media. Trump backers believe that their guy is close or even ahead and point to polls showing that possibility. I remain unconvinced he has any chance to win, but really, I cannot claim to be a political expert this year. The fact is though that Hillary Clinton is truly a horrific candidate for Democrats, and members of that party should be lamenting nominating her and even putting the risk of electing Trump on the table. (I do not think Bernie Sanders was electable either.) I think Clinton will beat Trump and I actually think it will be by about eight points, surprising the poll-watchers, but with her plethora of political and ethical problems, Trump is probably the only one she could ever beat for the Presidency. Conversely, she might wind up being the only one that Trump could ever possibly beat in a general election. The more one candidate is in the news over the other, the worse that candidate suffers politically. After the election, in theory at least, only the winner, is going to wind up being in the news. That's a pretty bad omen for either one of them. Whomever becomes President is going to be rightfully unpopular.

There's really not much else to say about this election. This was a golden opportunity for the Republican Party, and they blew it. Democrats, win or lose, are going to have some widening divisions themselves, but a Republican Civil War looks imminent too.

Politics in 2016 truly sucked but I can always look back with relief at the Chicago Cubs.

So, here are my Electoral Predictions. I think the national popular vote will wind up something like 50-42, which will be a surprise to many. Every vote cast for Hillary Clinton I will find wrong on an intellectual, policy, and ethical plane. Every vote cast for Donald Trump I will find wrong for all the same reasons, plus a far deeper moral one.

First the "Safe" states

AL- Trump
AR- Trump
CA- Clinton
CT- Clinton
DC- Clinton
DE- Clinton
IL- Clinton
HI- Clinton
KY- Trump
LA- Trump
MD- Clinton
MA- Clinton
MS- Trump
NE statewide Trump (plus Districts 1 and 3)
NJ- Clinton
NY- Clinton
ND- Trump
OK- Trump
OR- Clinton
RI- Clinton
SD- Trump
TN- Trump
VT- Clinton
WA- Clinton
WV- Trump
WY- Trump

182 Clinton, 73 Trump

Now adding the Likely states

ID- Trump
KS- Trump
ME -Clinton (plus District 1)
MN- Clinton
MO- Trump
MT- Trump
NM- Clinton

200 Clinton, 96 Trump

Adding Leans

AK- Trump
CO- Clinton
FL- Clinton
IN- Trump
ME 2- Clinton
MI- Clinton
NE 3- Trump
NV- Clinton
NH- Clinton
NC- Clinton
PA- Clinton
SC- Trump
TX- Trump
VA- Clinton
WI- Clinton

Clinton 323, Trump 158

Adding Tossups

AZ- Trump
GA- Trump
IA- Clinton
OH- Clinton
UT- Trump

Prediction

Hillary Clinton & Tim Kaine 347
Donald Trump & Mike Pence 191

A few weeks ago, I would have had Clinton with a bunch more

America is in for a rough ride. I do not at all want Hillary Clinton to be President, which is why I could not vote for her, but her opponent is even worse. No doubt in my mind. Her Presidency will be the awful side-effect of the chemotherapy that will hopefully kill the political cancer of Donald Trump in the Republican Party and America itself. I just hope it works and that health will be restored for the 2020 election.

No matter who wins, I will pray for the country and that the President has the judgment (and in Trump's case the loyalty to America itself) to lead America to better times or at least not to destruction.

At least the next President will have, like me, grown up a Cubs' fan, unless that's something else she has lied about.

Friday, November 04, 2016

U.S. House Predictions Part 15

4 Days Until Election Day

Ohio

(home of the City of Cleveland, which was subjected to unmitigated disgrace earlier this summer when the Republican Party nominated a despicable cretin, but became cosmically redeemed this week when it was the location of the occasion where the Chicago Cubs won the World Series. May the loyal baseball fans of Cleveland one day get to experience the same joy.)

1. Steve Chabot R (Romney 52%) Safe R
2. Brad Wenstrup R (Romney 55%) Safe R
3. Joyce Beatty D (Obama 70%) Safe D
4. Jim Jordan R (Romney 56%) Safe R
5. Bob Latta R (Romney 54%) Safe R
6. Bill Johnson R (Romney 55%) Safe R
7. Bob Gibbs R (Romney 54%) Safe R
8. Warren Davidson R (Romney 62%)
9. Marcy Kaptur D (Obama 68%) Safe D
10. Mike Turner R (Romney 50%) Safe R
11. Marcia Fudge D (Obama 83%) Safe D
12. Pat Tiberi R (Romney 54%) Safe R
13. Tim Ryan D (Obama 63%) Safe D
14. David Joyce R (Romney 51%) Likely R
15. Steve Stivers R (Romney 52%) Safe R
16. Jim Renacci R (Romney 54%) Safe R

OH current: 4 D, 12 R
OH predicted: 4 D, 12 R

Current total: 150 D, 164 R

Predicted:

156 D (121 Safe, 23 Likely, 9 Leans, 3 Tossup)
158 R (104 Safe, 32 Likely, 15 Leans, 7 Tossup)
_______________________________________________________________________

Oklahoma

1. Jim Bridenstine R (Romney 66%) Safe R
2. Markwayne Mullin R (Romney 68%) Safe R
3. Frank Lucas R (Romney 74%) Safe R
4. Tom Cole R (Romney 67%) Safe R
5. Steve Russell R (Romney 59%) Safe R

OK current: 0 D, 5 R
OK predicted: 0 D, 5 R

Current total: 150 D, 169 R

Predicted:


156 D (121 Safe, 23 Likely, 9 Leans, 3 Tossup)
163 R (109 Safe, 32 Likely, 15 Leans, 7 Tossup)
______________________________________________________________________

Oregon

1. Suzanne Bonamici D (Obama 57%) Safe D
2. Greg Walden R (Romney 56%) Safe R
3. Earl Blumenauer D (Obama 72%) Safe D
4. Peter DeFazio D (Obama 51%) Safe D
5. Kurt Schrader D (Obama 50%) Likely D

OR current: 4 D, 1 R
OR predicted: 4 D, 1 R

Current total: 154 D, 170 R

Predicted:

160 D (124 Safe, 24 Likely, 9 Leans, 3 Tossup)
164 R (110 Safe, 32 Likely, 15 Leans, 7 Tossup)
__________________________________________________________________________

Pennsylvania

1. Robert Brady D (Obama 82%) Safe D
2. Vacant (Chaka Fattah D)- (Obama 90%) Safe D (regular and Special)
3. Mike Kelly R (Romney 56%) Safe R
4. Scott Perry R (Romney 57%) Safe R
5. Glenn Thompson R (Romney 57%) Safe R
6. Ryan Costello R (Romney 51%) Likely R
7. Pat Meehan R (Romney 50%) Likely R
8. Open (Mike Fitzpatrick R)- (Romney 49%) Leans R
9. Bill Shuster R (Romney 63%) Likely R
10. Tom Marino R (Romney 60%) Safe R
11. Lou Barletta R (Romney 54%) Likely R
12. Keith Rothfus R (Romney 58%) Likely R
13. Brendan Boyle D (Obama 66%) Safe D
14. Mike Doyle D (Obama 68%) Safe D
15. Charlie Dent R (Romney 51%) Likely R
16. Open (Joe Pitts R)- (Romney 52%) Leans R
17. Matt Cartwright D (Obama 55%) Safe D
18. Tim Murphy R (Romney 58%) Safe R

PA current: 5 D, 13 R
PA predicted: 5 D, 13 R

Current total: 159 D, 183 R

Predicted:

165 D (129 Safe, 24 Likely, 9 Leans, 3 Tossup)
177 R (115 Safe, 38 Likely, 17 Leans, 7 Tossup)
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Rhode Island

1. David Cicilline D (Obama 66%) Safe D
2. Jim Langevin D (Obama 60%) Safe D

RI current: 2 D, 0 R
RI predicted: 2 D, 0 R

Current total: 161 D, 183 R

Predicted:

167 D (131 Safe, 24 Likely, 9 Leans, 3 Tossup)
177 R (115 Safe, 38 Likely, 17 Leans, 7 Tossup)
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South Carolina

1. Mark Sanford R (Romney 58%) Safe R
2. Joe Wilson R (Romney 62%) Safe R
3. Jeff Duncan R (Romney 65%) Safe R
4. Trey Gowdy R (Romney 62% ) Safe R
5. Mick Mulvaney R (Romney 55%) Likely R
6. Jim Clyburn D (Obama 73%) Safe D
7. Tom Rice R (Romney 55%) Safe R

SC current: 1 D, 6 R
SC predicted: 1 D, 6 R

Current total: 162 D, 189 R

Predicted:

168 D (132 Safe, 24 Likely, 9 Leans, 3 Tossup)
183 R (120 Safe, 39 Likely, 17 Leans, 7 Tossup)
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South Dakota

1. Kristi Noem R (Romney 58%) Likely R

SD current: 0 D, 1 R
SD predicted: 0 D, 1 R

Current total: 162 D, 190 R

Predicted:

168 D (132 Safe, 24 Likely, 9 Leans, 3 Tossup)
184 R (120 Safe, 40 Likely, 17 Leans, 7 Tossup)
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Tennessee

1. Phil Roe R (Romney 73%) Safe R
2. Jimmy Duncan R (Romney 67%) Safe R
3. Chuck Fleischmann R (Romney 63%) Safe R
4. Scott DesJarlais R (Romney 65%) Likely R
5. Jim Cooper D (Obama 56%) Safe D
6. Diane Black R (Romney 69%) Safe R
7. Marsha Blackburn R (Romney 66%) Safe R
8. Open (Stephen Fincher R)- (Romney 66%) Safe R
9. Steve Cohen D (Obama 79%) Safe D

TN current: 2 D, 7 R
TN predicted: 2 D, 7 R

Current total: 164 D, 197 R

Predicted:


170 D (134 Safe, 24 Likely, 9 Leans, 3 Tossup)
191 R (126 Safe, 41 Likely, 17 Leans, 7 Tossup)