Saturday, March 16, 2024

White House Race- March 16, 2024

So many items in the news. So many random thoughts. So difficult to find a format to present them all cohesively, and thus, something will probably be forgotten as I zip through this.

Well, the Presidential election nobody wants is finally set. On Tuesday night, both Joseph Robinette Biden Jr. and Donald John Trump Sr. clinched enough delegates to officially receive a nomination at this summer's in-person conventions. Both men have political problems with many in their own party, let alone Independents. Both are pretty despised by partisans of the other party. It is going to be a dark, dirty, ugly campaign. The side that loses, whichever side, will likely not concede, if the election is close, as it probably will be. That will lead to even bigger concerns in this country. Both men are old and have many questions surrounding their health, competency,and ethics. Both have been President for at least three years and both have been pretty unpopular ones. In spite of all this, I must repeat that nobody, again nobody, is less worthy of the Oval Office than Trump. Even people like me who cannot bring themselves to vote for Biden, should be rooting against Trump.

I will have to try to bring myself to vote in this coming Tuesday's Illinois Primary. After all, there are local races too, but I am not excited about the prospect, especially considering that I will have to select a primary ballot associated with one of the two political parties, that I find so distasteful these days. Assuming I actually do vote, which I think I will, I will talk about that next week.

We can look at the big picture though and prepare ourselves for the first Presidential re-match since 1956. Trump will become the first Republican to be nominated three times for President since Richard Nixon. He will be the first to be nominated consecutively three times in a row by any party since Franklin Roosevelt, and if it is up to him, he would be nominated a fourth time also. The last person to receive three straight nominations, including as a non-incumbent for any was Grover Cleveland. Trump is also hoping to duplicate something he did.

One big story this week was the testimony of Special Prosecutor Robert Hur before a House Committee on the report he wrote in which he determined that charges were not warranted against Biden regarding classified documents. In his testimony, he explained the reasons why, but upset Democrats by making it clear that he was not "exonerating" Biden of wrong-doing. Hur also upset Republicans in this hearing, but refusing to use the word "senile" in regards to the President, and making it clear that Biden cooperated far more thoroughly than the situation involving Trump and classified documents.

From what I saw, I came away a fan of Mr. Hur. Anybody who can piss off the preening politicians in both parties is doing something right in my view. He may be one of the few honorable people left in Washington. He seems like someone who does his job by the book regardless of might develop politically and is very thorough.  At the time of the report, I surmised that Biden was the one who brought up the death of his son Beau and the transcripts showed I was correct. It was pretty shameful for Biden and his allies insist that Hur brought it up as some sort of cheap shot. That was an outright lie. The narrative that Biden was so distracted and focused on dealing with the Middle East on the day of the interview on October 8 also seems to be a pretty poor excuse. In the transcript, Biden, as he is apt to do, spoke at length on many topics, and was chatty and jovial. He even made car noises, because he went on a bit of a filibuster about the vehicles he has seen as President.
 
Democrats continue to insist that Hur's language about Biden's memory in the interviews was inappropriate, although clearly the transcripts speak for themselves. Had Hur not included that consideration in the report, it would have come out this past week, with the transcript. It would have been a huge firestorm. Republicans would have accused Hur of "hiding the truth" in an attempt to protect Biden. Democrats should be glad the story got out when it did and that it was addressed then, as the State of the Union performance is said to have helped alleviate some of the fears about Biden's brain, at least in regards to Democrat loyalists.

With the exception of the soon to be resigned Colorado Congressman Ken Buck, the committee members on both sides acted in a lousy manner. It was all about Presidential politics. Democrats tried to make it about Trump, when the hearing was not supposed to be about Trump, and Republicans tried to make it about other Biden matters, when it was also not supposed to be about that. Some Democrats accused Hur of being a partisan Republican who was only interested in perhaps being nominated to a federal judgeship if Trump can win another term. Obviously, they did not read the report or listen to the testimony. There is no way Trump would ever hire Hur for anything.
 
I am not even going to bother this week with an in-depth look at all of the Trump legal matters. Last week, I might have forgot to mention that the Supreme Court, as expected, made it clear he cannot be kicked off of ballots due to "insurrection." The vote was 9-0. Maybe I did talk about it, I mention so many other things. Yesterday, there was major news out of Fulton County where the judge there tried to play things down the middle by ruling that District Attorney Fani Willis can continue to prosecute Trump as long as she fires her top attorney and ex-boyfriend. Of course, that is what happened. Trump fans were hoping she would get thrown off altogether, but the Judge was unwilling to go that far, although he was pretty damning of Willis in his ruling. There could be serious political damage to her career moving forward, but it might not matter for most of her constituents. She will now have to find a new special prosecutor who probably will be more experienced and better equipped to try the case than the guy she was going on vacations with.

Another story this week was that Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer of New York, long a staunch ally of Israel, and the highest ranking elected Jewish official in American history, made a speech on the Senate floor, with the advanced knowledge and approval of the White House. What Schumer said was nuanced and seemed even tortured in the rhetoric at times. The gist of it was that he wanted Israel to hold new elections and for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to be replaced.

As Schumer knows very well, Israel is a democracy that does have elections. Sometimes they get messy, but Israel has always had free and fair elections and will again. The people there will decide if Bibi should stay or go and if they want someone else, (and they probably will) , just how different that person will be. Schumer received a tremendous amount of pushback for these comments, not just from Republicans, but from centrist Jewish organizations, who felt he crossed a line in criticizing a democratic ally and involving himself in their electoral process. After all, we in the United States rightfully get upset when other countries try to meddle in our elections. To be expected, Trump also attacked Schumer and Biden over this, but based on what he said,it was pretty clear that Trump continues to equate "Israel" and "Jewish Americans" as one in the same, and that is also an anti-Semitic trope (just like Biden's "come to Jesus" jab.)

This is mostly about politics for Democrats. Schumer knew he was in a difficult position, and Biden feels the same. I really do not doubt that those men and so many others know for a fact that Israel are the good guys and Hamas are the bad guys. The problem is that a lot of Democrats seem to think the opposite. If they cannot get those folks fully onboard for this November, the result for Democrats across the board can be bad. So, they are pandering to extremists and misinformed individuals. I get the politics but that is certainly not leadership and certainly not right, as I have been saying for years now about how Republicans have been acting in pandering to Trump and the extremists in his base.

Moving back to Trump, he flip flopped this week on TikTok. He probably could have shot a dance video doing so.  When he was President, he said he wanted to ban the Communist Chinese spy-app for national security reasons. This week, the House voted in a large way, along bipartisan lines (which almost never happens anymore) to force TikTok to sell to an American company or be banned in the U.S. Only a collection of the most far-right and most far-left Members of the House voted against it. Trump said he opposed banning it, not because he feels that the bill was wrong, but because if TikTok goes away, American companies, such a Facebook could do a lot better filling that void in the market. Trump is so pissed at Facebook and Mark Zuckerberg, (whom he called a stupid, vaguely anti-Semitic name on social media) over the 2020 election, that it colors all his thinking. With Trump, it never is what is best for the country or the world, but what is best for Trump. In honest moments, he all but admits it.

With the Presidential nominees basically in stone, the talk moves on to Veepstakes. Democrats, for better or worse, will pick Kamala Harris once again. A wide range of Republicans are continuing to audition on cable tv and online for Trump's blessing. It is said that he is so leery of losing politically on the abortion issue, that he might stay away from someone seen as staunchly Pro-Life, such as Tim Scott or Kristi Noem. The latter had her old little weird story this week about an infomercial the Governor recently did for a Texas dentist and whether or not that might have violated South Dakota ethics laws. In the weeks ahead, we can discuss the Republican VP hopefuls in more depth, I do not know if I have mentioned this or not, but all the talk about Floridians being on Trump's short-list is really dumb, for Constitutional reasons. Trump is already a candidate from the State of Florida. He cannot change. If he picks another person from Florida, they would have to change their voting state quickly,and there is simply no way that a sitting Governor Ron DeSantis or a Congressman Byron Donalds could do so. The latter would all but hand the House over to the Democrats immediately since he would have to resign by effect of "moving" out of state.

One candidate who is said to have selected someone for Vice President already is Independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. While he has reportedly been turned down by others, his choice is said to come down to former Minnesota Governor Jesse Venutra, whom like Kennedy is a certified crackpot, and current NFL Quarterback Aaron Rodgers of the New York Jets. As a Bears fans, I have hated Rodgers for years (he played many seasons for the Green Bay Packers and usually beat us twice a year), and I can only hope America can join me in despising the punk. Like Kennedy, Rodgers is a rabid anti-vaxxer,and many right-wingers have come to like him. If he actually gets picked it would be an interesting story to say the least.This week, Rodgers had to repudiate the claim that he told a CNN reporter that the horrific Sandy Hook massacre of 1st Graders some years ago was "fake" and involved actors. He may not want people to think he believes that now but he seems to have said it. Interestingly enough, Rodgers did not denounce any interest in running for Vice President with Kennedy. It would have been pretty easy for him to do that. Maybe he just likes the attention, or maybe it could actually happen. Could he actually play football and run for Vice President at the same time this year? The Kennedy announcement is scheduled later this week in Oakland, California, which is near where Rodgers grew up. Very interesting.

Finally, someone who will not be picked for Vice President this cycle is Mike Pence. I have had many justified frustrations with him ever since he signed on with Trump, but I need to salute him for his political courage at this time. In an interview yesterday, he said he could not "in good conscience" endorse his former running-mate's campaign to regain the Presidency. I was a bit surprised. I thought Pence would give a perfunctory, terse acknowledgement of support for Trump, but instead he joins every living person to have been President or Vice President not named Trump, to not support Trump, with one possible exception. While the list includes Republicans. George W. Bush, Dick Cheney, and now Mike Pence, we are not sure about Pence's fellow Hoosier Dan Quayle. I will note that perhaps Pence might possibly be leaving himself some wiggle room between "endorse" and "vote for" but the effect is basically the same. This was a gutsy move and likely drove Trump crazy. I will be similarly surprised, but pleased if Nikki Haley follows this path.

For now. Pence is the only 2024 Republican candidate to join Asa Hutchinson and Chris Christie in having ruled out supporting Trump. Needless to say, that Trump's own Vice President is doing this speaks volumes. Pence will be excommunicated by many Republicans, to a greater extent than he already was, for this. While there is clearly bad blood between the two men over January 6, 2021, the day Trump thought it was reasonable for his supporters to want to hang the Vice President, Pence did not cite this as his rationale and that has confused and even upset some pundits. I think they are missing the big picture.

Plenty of people, including plenty of one-time Republicans, speak frequently about the kind of danger to democracy that Trump is. It cannot be understated. He is out there today saying there will be a "bloodbath"in America if he is not elected. Pence likely believes all of that, but he said that Trump has turned his back on conservatism, and even the record of his Administration, in this current campaign. Pence is definitely correct that Trump is not a conservative, and frankly, conservatives need to hear it. Pence talked about Trump waffling on the debt, abortion, and China as examples. I think it is worth someone taking a different anti-Trump approach to the public square.

Months ago though, Pence said there was no room in the Republican Party for apologists for Vladimir Putin. To me, that is reason enough alone to reject Trump. It is clear and also scary how much he admires dictators and those who aspire to be dictators. Look at the way he spoke about Victor Orban at Mar-A-Lago recently. Listen to his former Chief of Staff, who says Trump would sometimes praise Hitler. Look at the fawning he does over Putin and Kim Jung Un. Donald Trump may no longer be a Democrat, but he is certainly no democrat.

As distressing as these times are politically, I feel good that Mike Pence was willing to put his conscience and his personal faith (at long last) above the path of political least-resistance.  The former Vice President may have a complicated legacy for historians to debate, but clearly, he is doing an honorable thing in 2024.

Sunday, March 10, 2024

Academy Award



"I dedicate Jonathan Glazer’s Oscar to the brave and brilliant men and women of the IDF and to the State of Israel. Don’t stop till the enemy is defeated."
 
Abe Greenwald on Twitter. (I originally included the link but it is messing up my formatting.)

Saturday, March 09, 2024

White House Race- March 9, 2024

It has been a long and eventful seven days and every week, there are always items that could be covered that I forget to write about. I had a lot of thoughts about politics during the course of this past week,but it is difficult to remember them all on Saturdays. These posts are definitely an unhappy chore, that I try to zip through as quickly as possible.

The main development is that the general election is now all but set. There is not a huge surprise in that but it is going to be a perilous eight months for the country. The first primaries for Congressional and state offices were held this past Tuesday and those will be the only remaining contests until November that might contain any drama. There could be surprise results on both sides, as polarization within ideological bases of both parties increase. Republicans face it over Russia and Ukraine and Democrats face it going Israel and Gaza.

Looking back first to this past Sunday, I did not even realize that Washington D.C. would be holding a primary. The news was that Nikki Haley beat Donald Trump by a solid margin. Beating a former or current President in any Presidential primary is pretty unheard of, at least since 1980. In achieving this victory in D.C. (which probably irked Trump to no end), Haley became the first ever Republican woman to win a Presidential primary. Also, unless I am overlooking something, I am pretty sure she is also the first Asian-American to ever win a Presidential primary in either party.

This would pretty much be the highlight of the week for Haley though. On "Super Tuesday", Donald Trump romped to large victories almost everywhere. The one footnote was that Haley narrowly took Vermont, in which she was certainly helped by Democrat voters wanting to vote against Trump. The results though from the other states made it clear that Republican Primary voters either really want Trump or had just come to the conclusion that the race was over and voted accordingly trying to officially end it. Still though, one cannot ignore the exit polls which showed that so many of Haley's voters were saying they did not plan to vote for Trump in November.

On the Democrat side, incumbent Joe Biden took all of the states by very sizable margins. Voters in Minnesota were even more vocal though in picking "Uncommitted" than Michigan was a week earlier, showing some warning signs for Biden's party. The one true historical oddity came from American Samoa where the President of the United States lost the Caucus 51 votes to 40. No, not to Dean Phillips, or Marianne Williamson, or a write-in for Oprah or anything like that. He lost it to someone named Jason Palmer, whom I had never even heard of. I would have guessed Jason Palmer was a former backup quarterback or a relative of the fictional President on the old show "24." Instead, he is a Maryland businessman,who never stepped foot in American Samoa, but campaigned there virtually, and the investment paid off. Palmer will now be one of the hardest ever to answer political trivia questions for all eternity. Fifty-one votes to forty.

The Wednesday after Super Tuesday had some headlines. The lesser of which was Dean Phillips ending his quixotic campaign and strongly endorsing Joe Biden, whom days ago, he was saying could not beat Trump. The bigger news though was on the Republican side.

It seemed clear that Nikki Haley was viewing Super Tuesday as the end of the road. She held no events on primary night, and stayed home in South Carolina. There was nothing planned for her campaign in regards to further campaign spots or ad buys. So, on Wednesday morning, she appeared before some supporters and gave a relatively brief statement in which she suspended her campaign. In this statement, she did not endorse Trump, but wished him well and said the onus was now on him to earn the voters of her supporters. She also said, "I hope he will." Well, to say the least that disappoints me but does not surprise me. It seems pretty inevitable that she is looking for a reason to endorse Trump for the general election sooner or later.

Before she spoke, but after it was clear she was dropping out, Trump issued a typical nasty statement attacking Haley. Since then, he has taken no steps to extend any sort of actual olive branch to Haley's voters. Such a thing is just not Trump's style. So, it is clear that he is actively missing an opportunity there and it could be a very harmful one long-term. I will hold out hope that Haley keeps that in mind.

Reportedly, Joe Biden spoke to Nikki Haley via phone on Wednesday. The President's campaign released a very complimentary statement about the former Republican candidate and made it clear that despite differences that might be had, there was a place for Haley's supporters in his campaign. To say the least, this was a very different tactic than Trump took. Such talk from Biden was the reason I actually did what I once thought was unthinkable in 2020 and actually checked a box to vote for him, even though it was a means to oppose Trump. As President though, Biden and his party have shown to me very little inclination to include Republicans, former Republicans, or center-right folks as part of what they consider important. So, it is hard for me to think that Biden and his party actually mean it this time. You know the old saying, one bitten, twice shy. Still, it would be foolish for them not to at least try. I note that the DNC went out of its way to attack Asa Hutchinson and Chris Christie when they dropped out, even though they made it clear they were not going to back Trump.Now, they are following Biden's lead and taking a very different tone in refusing to dance on the political grave of Nikki Haley, even though she will probably wind up endorsing Trump.

With contested Presidential primaries now over, attention turned to Thursday night's State of the Union Address, always an anticipated event, but especially so this year, with an incumbent seeking reelection, and dogged by low numbers and serious questions about his mental and physical health. It was clear that it would be a very political speech, designed more towards the Democrats' activist base than the country at large, but it was even more of a "convention type" speech than I even imagined, just with half the room being the opposition. I realize that the political environment of today basically gave Biden little choice, but still I think it is was sad for the country that our politics has gotten to this point. Now, I will offer some thoughts on the evening.

Biden took his time making it to the rostrum. For one thing, he had to contend with attention seeking Republicans like Marjorie Taylor Green, who violated House rules by wearing a Trump 2024 hat. All of this made for some interesting television. As he approached the front of the chamber, Biden encountered two retiring Senators who happen to be good friends of each other. After shaking hands with both, Biden was caught speaking these words to Joe Manchin, in regards to Mitt Romney. "This guy has total integrity. That's a fact" I agree Mr. President, Mitt Romney is a politician with actual integrity and I am glad you said it. What a departure though from 2012, when he was running against your ticket and you told a black audience that he would "put y'all back in chains." Comments like that contributed to the poisoned political environment that basically radicalized conservatives and led to the emergence of Trump.

In my view, Biden started off the speech strong, He led off right away with Ukraine and then went into shaming Republicans over January 6, 2021. On these parts, I agreed with pretty much everything he said. Speaker Mike Johnson, someone nobody expected would have been in his chair a year ago, looked entirely uncomfortable having to stay seated and silent as others in the House Chamber (mostly Democrats) stood and applauded in regards to supporting Ukraine and opposing Putin. I do not know what Speaker Johnson was expecting, but he looked pained and uncomfortable for much of the speech. I cannot say I felt any sympathy for him, and I will include the part about immigration in which Biden pointed out that Republicans had helped draft a conservative bill that they later jettisoned because Trump would rather have an issue to run on than trying to solve a serious problem.If these were the only portions of the speech, I might be tempted to vote for Biden again.

Alas though, on the substance, from his stance on abortion, to massive new federal spending proposals, to typical left-wing anti-rich class warfare, I did not like so much else of what was part of the speech, After all, I am a conservative and always have been one.

The "style" mattered more than the "substance" though in this speech, as people were curious to how Biden would perform. Sure, there were some minor gaffes and flubbed words, but the political reality is that Biden, who spoke in a very loud voice (which understandably can lead to coughing fits at times) "performed" very well and likely did a lot of damage to the Republican narrative of him being in sharp mental decline. Yes, he looked old, but he seemed to enjoy the stakes of the occasion. Nobody in serious mental decline could read a teleprompter and get at least about 95 percent of the words right. In watching the speech, and hearing and seeing the reaction of Congressional Democrats, I realized that many panicked activists in his party would wind up feeling better about Biden, at least for one night. People, especially young ones, tend to have very low attention spans.

Republicans had been cautioned to be on their best behavior during the speech, but some, like MTG, could not resist themselves and played into Biden's hands. On the way to the podium, the President took a button about Laken Riley, a nursing student recently murdered by an illegal immigrant. That is a tragic story all around. Democrats try to ignore it and Republicans try to exploit it. Many did not think Biden would mention her name, but when MTG started shouting, he held up the pin and said her name, albeit perhaps as "Lincoln Riley."  He said yes she was killed by an "illegal" and his heart went out to her family, and then also tried to point out in somewhat garbled way that many Americans are also killed by "legals." The main takeway was that Biden was lucid and quick enough to have what was seen as a spontaneous moment. He spent so much of the speech openly goading the Republicans and trying to get them to react. In that regard, he got the best of them.

Some on the left were angry though that he used the term "illegal" instead of "undocumented." Pressure from within the base of the party was strong enough for Biden to say today that he wished he did not use that term. I wish he had more backbone.in standing up to his party.

Everyone knew Biden would speak about Israel and Gaza, a huge story that has gone from us largely forgetting what actually happened on October 7 to dealing with the reality of Israel's campaign to eradicate Hamas. I could go on and on about that but it is very clear there are a lot of people in America and around the world who simply cannot accept the fact that Israel allows massive attacks on Jews to go unanswered in this day and age.

The Biden-Harris Administration now uses the word "ceasefire" as a sop to the left, but substantively, they do not seem to actually mean it. They know that realizing hostages and things of that nature are not something Hamas is going to be willing to do. They know full well that the impediment of a ceasefire is Hamas, and not Israel, but yet they have to pander to the anti-Israel crowd. It is all very unfortunate. I think Biden could do himself a favor by positioning himself as a principled leader who is willing to stand up to extremists on all sides. However, he only stands up to the right and not the left. All things considered, the specific words he said in criticism of Israel in the speech were fairly mild, and many on the left were disappointed. I am disappointed he said not one word about all the rising instances of anti-Semitism we have seen in America the past few months. Of course, he would have had to include Islamaphobia as a counter in that as well, but it should have been said.

Benjamin Netanyahu is the long-time (with some time out of office as well) Prime Minister of Israel. He has done so much for his country in his career, but long before October 7, I thought he should be replaced. Term-limits are a good thing everywhere, and I wish they would have applied to him. He seems to have a lot of personal interest in staying in office and has had to do a lot of political things to maintain his office. He will not be Prime Minister forever though and the thought that people only dislike Israel because of him is an incorrect one. No, some folks are going to hate Israel regardless of whom the Prime Minister is. They simply do not think Israel has the right to exist and the bottom line also is that any Israeli Prime Minister will realize they have no choice to fight Hamas for the country's own survival, even if there are unquestioned civilian suffering on the other side as well, because Hamas has put those people in that position. I continue to insist that while thousands have obviously died in Gaza, accepting a specific number directly from Hamas is a very bad precedent.

So, Biden and Netanyahu have been having conflict. I think it is far less of Biden thinking "Bibi" is actually in the wrong, than the realization of what angry anti-Israel leftists might mean to Joe's political coalition and ability to win reelection. Thus, Biden wants it known publicly that he is "mad" at Bibi. After the SOTU was over, Biden hung around forever, chatting with friends and former colleagues who stuck around, largely to congratulate him. He was also still mic'ed up. At one point, he told a Senator and a couple Cabinent members to "don't repeat this"but that he planning to have a "come to Jesus meeting" with the Israeli Prime Minister.

Some think Biden said this intentionally to get out over the hot mic. I do not. I think he intended to say it as a private joke and as a Jewish-American, I definitely found it offensive. Whatever one thinks of Netanyahu, everyone obviously knows he is Jewish and Jesus should have nothing to do with our diplomacy. Had Donald Trump ever used a phrase like this in regards to a Jewish leader, there would have been massive outrage. For that matter, let us consider the international firestorm that would have developed had George W. Bush been caught saying that about a Muslim leader. However, Biden saying it about Netanyahu has largely been shrugged off by everyone in the media. When asked about it, Biden refused to offer any sort of apology, which is far different than what he was forced to do over the use of the world "illegal."
 
I do not think Biden is an anti-Semite, but this was a very inappropriate thing for any American President to say, whether "eavesdropped" or not. A Christian saying a Jewish person needs to "come to Jesus" might seem like a metaphor, but it has historical meaning and has been used to harm Jews for generations.  This is not the time for anybody to be engaging in anti-Semitic tropes, even in a joking or symbolic way. I will note that some Evangelical Christians on the right who criticized Biden for this probably should check themselves, because they happen to openly believe that all Jews must "come to Jesus" or face eternal damnation. Speaking for myself, this off-hand comment from Biden really soured me on any inclination I had to be happy about him giving a kind of speech that might help him against Republicans,. Our politics is very confusing these days for someone like me though.

Bizarre is the word that can best describe the official Republican response given by 42 year old freshman Alabama Senator Katie Britt. Official responses to the SOTU usually get panned. It is a tough assignment to do, but this one was really weird. Republicans always trot out a female for this role (there has been some talk that Trump himself might be the one to give it), but in this case, they literally had Britt deliver it in her kitchen, which is some unfortunate symbolism.

The weird thing is that Britt is actually very respected. She is clearly the smarter Senator from Alabama and was seen as a rising star in the party. She has very deep "establishment" credentials and when I have seen her speak before, she sounds absolutely normal. Clearly, she was going to be very harsh on Biden in this speech in terms of the substance but it was the style that generated all the attention. I will also note that I do not believe she mentioned Donald Trump's name a single time,and I have to think that is something that really upset the former President. If Britt was auditioning for the VP slot, she did herself no favors.

I believe tonight are the annual Razzie Awards in Hollywood signifying the worst acting jobs of the year. Britt would quality. It was just all so weird. In any form of communication, political or otherwise, a speaker is more respected if they are at least seen as speaking in an "authentic voice." For this big moment, Senator Britt did not play her actual role as a U.S. Senator, but instead debuted two characters in what felt like a horrible off-Broadway one woman show/YouTube rant. If she was a YouTube character, she should have at least played the ukulele as she spoke or something.

There was so much that a Republican elected official could say in response to the policy matters discussed by Biden in his speech, but the Republican Party no longer seems like a serious party, so we got a farce like this. Britt spoke in not one, but two inauthentic voices, alternating between them constantly. She went from sounding like a cheerful, perhaps even ditzy housewife to an angry "Karen" on the verge of tears, back and forth. Whomever Senator Katie Britt actually is, neither one of these characters were her, and whomever decided this was what she needed to do with the country watching did her and her political career a disservice. Saturday Night Live probably cried tears of joy. Tonight, there is no doubt their cold open will a take on Britt's response. She was basically doing their job for them. They will not even need to make fun of Biden on tonight's show.

This weekend, both Biden and Trump are on the campaign trail. The most tribalist of supporters on both sides are probably feeling pretty good or at least better about their guy at the moment. However, this is the matchup that about 80 percent of Americans said they did not want to happen. Soon, the biggest topic of discussion in America will be about if there will be debates or how debates might occur or who is dodging debates, who is scared to debate, etc. This is going to be everywhere, very soon, and it is going to be nauseating. The only thing more nauseating might be an actual Trump vs. Biden debate. If I had to guess today, I would say that it will never occur and that both sides do not actually want one to occur although they will claim, especially Trump's side, that they do.

With Biden vs.Trump symbolically etched in stone (and a lot less talk for now about Democrats dumping Biden), will there be another option for America, not counting weirdos like Cornell West and RFK Jr? It is getting close for "No Labels" to come to a conclusion. People from Joe Manchin to Larry Hogan have already taken themselves out of any consideration. The people within that organization had a meeting yesterday and it is said they are planning to indeed run a bipartisan ticket, but who knows if it will actually happen?

I was pretty happy to hear the name of Geoff Duncan, the former Republican Lt. Governor of Georgia mentioned yesterday as now being a real possibility. Some will scoff because he was only a Lt. Governor, but I would be beyond enthusiastic to support him for President. Ideologically, he is very much my kind of Republican and I think he could do a world of good for advocating the views of center-right Americans who despise Trump but also fear Biden and his party.

No, he would not win the Presidency in 2024, but despite the hysterical worries of the Democrats, I actually think he would hurt Trump more than Biden, especially in the key battleground state of Georgia. The tribalists always go to the place of assuming that people like me are dumb because we think a third party candidate can win. It is really not that at all. We just want to be able to vote for someone and feel good about it. Obviously though, America is hungry for a different choice beyond picking between the two cranky old men.

If Democrats were smart, they would want Duncan running (at least in Georgia) because there are people who would vote for him that would otherwise vote for Trump there and elsewhere. Do they really think that a conservative, Pro-Life Evangelical is going to take more votes away from their party? If so, they probably should re-examine their whole party. I am in the position of believing No Labels will actually nominate a candidate when I see it. There are a lot of reasons why they may not, but in my dream world, America could "Run on Duncan."

Saturday, March 02, 2024

White House Race- March 2, 2024

I am thinking this will be an especially short version this week. I did not get a chance to do this write-up earlier in the day.

It has felt like a long week. Political events keep unfolding but nothing to deflect away from what appears certain to be a Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump rematch in eight months. Right now, there are huge warning signs for both likely nominees. Still, if the polls are to be believed, and there may be some nuance to that, Trump still appears to be ahead. He was never ahead in the polls like this when he won in 2016 and he certainly was not ahead in 2020 when he lost. Lots of Trumpers think he has the election in the bag with no problems on sight against "Sleepy Joe", but they are foolish to make that assumption. Democrats seem to alter between those who panic that Biden cannot win and those who refuse to believe he can lose. The truth is he can definitely lose, and if he does, the party can blame and his enablers, for having him even embark on this campaign. In my view, until we are within 100 days of the election, we really have no idea who is going to win. I am pretty sure that one of the candidates will lose the election more than the other will win.

As expected last Saturday night, Trump won comfortably in Nikki Haley's home state of South Carolina, but the end result was at least a bit closer than many polls predicted. There seems to be a trend in politics going back to the last midterm to some special elections to the early Republican primaries, in which Trump or those associated with the Republican Party are underperforming the final polls, especially in the suburbs. This should be considered a huge red flag for the Trump backers who are so heartened by polls.

Trump also won Michigan again this past week by a big margin. All sorts of states will be voting on Tuesday on the day which is called Super Tuesday, but which certainly does not have the political star power it used to. It will be a huge upset if Haley were to actually win a single state. Trump is indeed very good at beating Republicans both in his races and usually in other races where he makes endorsements. He has not been good at beating Democrats though since his fluke win in 2016.

Last Saturday, watching the first few minutes of Nikki Haley's concession speech, it sounded like she may be dropping out, despite past promises not to. Thankfully, she was a "woman of her word" and did not do so. However, the writing is on the wall. Trump is not going to be denied the traditional political way. Something else will have to happen and Haley may or may not be the one who will be in the right place at the right time.

Reading between the lines, it sounds very possible that Haley may be planning to leave the race after this Tuesday's primaries. I hope that is not the case, but it would not surprise me. In recent weeks, she has sure sounded like someone who will not be endorsing Trump anytime soon, but sadly, it will not shock me if she does. The "No Labels" group is still looking for a candidate to run in the general election and they are talking about Haley. She has all but ruled it out saying she would not be willing to accept a Democrat as Vice President as a condition of receiving that nomination. I also think there are major logistical issues involved that would prevent a candidate who actively lost running as a Republican in various states being able to legally appear on a general election ballot.

Interestingly enough, it was Dean Phillips, the Congressman who has completely fallen flat in his primary challenge to Biden who suggested he might be willing to run on a ticket with Haley at the top. While many Democrats privately agree with Phillips on his pessimistic take on Biden's general election prospects, they are very angry at Phillips for acting on it. He has become nothing short of a laughing stock and probably has no future in the party. In Michigan this past week, he finished behind Marianne Williamson, who had already suspended her campaign. Then, after having beaten Phillips in Michigan, Williamson promptly jumped back in. Go figure. Has that happened in Presidential primary politics since Gary Hart in 1988?

The big question out of Michigan though was how many votes "Uncommitted" would receive and what it might mean in terms of warning signs for Biden in regards to voters in the Democrat base angry at him over Israel and Gaza. Those who advocated the protest vote against Biden in the primary, significantly downplayed expectations, and thus were able to easily beat those. However, the overall percentage of those opposing Biden in the Michigan Primary was probably smaller than many expected. In that respect, the "Uncommitted" forces fell short, but if those people do not show up to support Biden in November in a must-win state like Michigan, Donald Trump will be put in an extremely small position.

Some ask themselves how these pro-Palestinian voters would be willing to do anything to bring Donald Trump back, considering he wants a Muslim ban and certainly would be viewed as more pro-Israrel than a Democrat. Well, I sort of hate to paint with too broad of a brush.This is obviously not a completely fair analogy, but historically so many people who zealots against Israel have not exactly acted rationally. They have blown themselves up and of course flew planes into American buildings. Killing the "infidel"has always been a more important thing to them than bringing about what they might consider a positive outcome for their cause. So, if Jihadist apologists want to vote for Trump or do anything to help him politically, it is probably not a huge surprise.

The biggest headlines this week seemed to come from courtrooms from the SCOTUS in Washington D.C. to a federal courthouse in South Florida, to the Fulton Country Courthouse. Democrats seem to very much be counting on Trump being a convicted felon by Election Day as something that will pull them across the finish line. Indeed, that label against Trump could make a difference for some marginal voters. However, it is seeming less and less likely that Trump will be convicted of anything by Election Day. Now, 2025 or 2026 may be another story, but all of that of course depends on what happens this year.

The case in Fulton County is at risk of falling apart. We are likely to get a ruling early this week as to if Fanni Willis and her team are kicked off the case for an ill advised personal relationship between two top lawyers involving a lot of cash and potential lying under oath last month. If that happens, the case against Trump and his co-defendants (at least the ones who have not already accepted a plea) might be over.

The Supreme Court said it will indeed take up the case of if Trump has immunity for his actions as President. I am not too surprised they are doing this but it came as a bitter disappointment to opponents of Trump. I certainly think it is important for there to be no grounds for appear if Trump is convicted in his federal cases but this review by the Supreme Court is all but certain to significantly delay the Washington D.C. trial which had already been sent. Few believe that the Court will wind up siding with Trump on the merits of their argument, but the delay aspect is important.

All of this is leading to a huge calendar speculation game and all the various factors involved with that. If the D.C. trial is going to be delayed, Special Prosecutor Jack Smith is trying to go to an alternate strategy and move up the Florida classified documents case. In many ways, the facts and the law seem worse for Trump in that case.  However, the judge assigned to the case is believed to be far more likely to issue rulings that are friendly to Trump than the D.C. judge. Even more so,  the jury pool in South Florida, where Trump has a lot of support, is far more likely to be good for him than a D.C. federal jury which demographically be strongly Democrat. Needless to say, Trump's legal team is trying to delay that one too.

So, what exactly would it mean if one of the Trump cases, say the one in Florida occurs before Election Day and Trump beats the rap? Would a pre-election acquittal be a huge boost to Trump? It probably would not be harmful. The bottom line is that the New York City charges on the Stormy Daniels hush money really seems like the only case that could take place before Election Day, and the charges seem weakest there and the American public probably thinks the least of it.

In so many ways, partisan backers of both of these incredibly unpopular likely nominees have a ton to fret about for the remainder of this election cycle. I think the entire situation is horrible for the country, but at the minimum, at least I know that some pretty bad or at the minimum people with very bad judgement on both sides are going to be going through it. Ultimately, one group of them will be utterly devastated by losing to the other guy and will have only themselves to blame for nominating the 2024 loser.

As for me, depending on what Haley does after Tuesday's primaries, will determine which party's primary I will pull a ballot for on March 19 and what I will do with it. I will let you all know when the time comes.

Saturday, February 24, 2024

White House Race- February 24, 2024

I am wanting to get this post up before the polls close in South Carolina, as I really do not feel like I want to focus on this election tonight. When I was younger the event of a Saturday South Carolina Primary was very exciting to me, as my preferred candidates achieved big wins in 1996 and 2000. Those days of triumph for establishment figures Bob Dole and George W. Bush are long gone though. In fact, the Republican establishment itself has been shifted, after beginning to drift starting in 2008. Yes, the more moderate John McCain won the primary in 2008, but Evangelicals voted heavily for second place finisher Mike Huckabee, who now fits in well with MAGA world. Four years later, the acerbic Newt Gingrich, a one time Reagan conservative, who had embraced angry populism by 2012 won the Palmetto State. While he did not come close to being nominated, the stage was set for Donald Trump four years later. Now, Trump is the establishment, and the people supporting Nikki Haley, a former Governor of the state, are the party outsiders.

Tonight, Trump will easily win the primary and many will once again declare the race over and call on Haley to drop out. She has insisted she will not do so and will remain an active candidate until Republicans in every state have voted. With the bridges sufficiently burned, she has nothing to lose and I hope she sticks with it. Haley has been very vocal in recent days saying that Trump cannot win a general election. The problem is that most Republicans do not believe it. These primary voters believe, perhaps foolishly, that a genuinely vulnerable and embattled Joe Biden is doomed to lose. Biden's weaknesses and problems have done more than anything else to embolden the political rebound of Trump. Perhaps, Democrats are getting what they wanted all along, but it is a very risky gamble.
 
Haley gave a speech this week in which she announced she will stay in the race regardless of what happens today in South Carolina. In it, she fought back tears while talking about how her husband is away from her and the family at this time while he is off serving his country. Her display of emotion did not get a lot of attention, the way that Hillary Clinton's tears during the 2008 New Hampshire Primary, did and might have helped her pull off a surprise win. In the MAGA world, they would definitely use actual human emotions against Haley. So perhaps it is a good thing this was largely overlooked.

The more he "campaigns" the more Trump continues to say crazy and outrageous things. What else is new though? After being notoriously silent on the death of Alexei Navalny for days, Trump has taken the tack of comparing himself to Navalny as a "political dissident" being targeted by the forces of his country's government. He has still not said one word in which he has criticized anything Putin may have done to Navalny. Last night, Trump appearing before a group of black conservatives in South Carolina, said that black people now love him because he is in trouble with the law and has an angry mugshot. It is truly sick stuff if you think about it, but one cannot deny that in our culture, many people gravitate to the "anti-hero." Back in the 1980s, there were not an insignificant number of African-Americans in New York City who expressed their admiration for mafia mass murderer John Gotti and today, some have embraced Trumpism.
 
Trump also spoke to CPAC today. The conservative conference used to be a major event in the Republican Party but has fallen off in recent years. This year, attendance was said to be down a tremendous amount. Many media outlets were not even covering it, which I believe may relate to the restrictive press access that CPAC gave out. If one had Newsmax though, they probably saw a lot of the Trump VP auditions and various other craziness that should embarrass any true conservative  One pro-Trump voice from social media said that the intention of the movement was to "destroy democracy" and that they almost got there on January 6th, but not quite yet. Honestly compels me to say that when I heard that clip, I immediately detected the sarcasm behind the world and intent to "own the libs." However, the libs and many others took it literally and have been talking about it. I guess you cannot blame them.

It does not seem like C-SPAN even had cameras at CPAC this year. Instead, they covered a competing event in Washington D.C. from NeverTrump folks on the right called the "Principles First Summit." It seems like they had a decent sized crowd and I caught some of the panel discussions on C-SPAN today. It reminded me of my teenage years watching CPAC on television and how those type of intellectual discussions helped me learn a lot and think critically. Taking back the Republican Party from Trumpism, if it is ever to happen, will take years to accomplish, but in catching a bit of these discussions today, it is good to be reminded that there are other smart people who share my views.

Ukraine and Russia continue to be a major story. It has now been two years since Putin's brutal invasion of his sovereign neighbor. For these past two years, Ukraine has beaten the odds in many ways in fighting the Russians. The last couple of weeks though have seen somewhat of a military turnaround with Russia now making gains once again.This might very well have much to do with the United States finding itself unable to support Ukraine militarily as it had been doing, because of Congressional dysfunction and a bloc within the Republican Party being beholden to Trump, who frankly does not want Ukraine to beat Putin. If an aid bill for Ukraine were to reach the floor of the House, it would pass overwhelmingly, with a lot of Republican support, but current Speaker Mike Johnson has been refusing for that to happen, in fear of his job. There will have to be an effort, in which some Republicans will have to participate, for a "discharge petition" to put the vote on the floor. It is extremely important for our national security and potential to stay out of World War III to do so.

Another somewhat unexpected flashpoint this week involved IVF after a ruling by the Alabama Supreme Court saying that an embryo is a person and on religious grounds, needs to be treated that way. This is a very complex and layered issue and frankly much of the tumult is somewhat nonsensical.It is clear though that Democrats and the media are trying to make this into a huge issue, and comparing it to abortion in an effort to hurt Republicans at the ballot box. There is some fundamental dishonesty there, but it is political reality. Alabama Senator Tommy Tuberville was asked about this and seemed to trip all over himself trying to figure out how to answer. It might be that Tuberville does not even know what IVF is and perhaps thinks they are fighting Hamas in Gaza.

I am  Pro-Life. I believe that a fetus is a baby. I do not believe that an embryo is a baby.While I respect people who believe otherwise due to religious convictions, I see a major difference. A life begins at conception in my view (or at fertilization at the latest.) In regards to IVF, a significant medical process has to be done before a pregnancy can occur and thus the life of a baby begins. An overwhelming majority of Americans, including Pro-Life conservatives support IVF and recognize how important it has been to so many people who have relied on it to become parents or to grow their families.

In many cases an abortion stops a beating heart or as has been scientifically proven causes tremendous physical pain to a scared and frightened baby inside a womb as its life is extinguished. None of this happens if an embryo is destroyed. This has never been an ethical or moral battle worth having. Of course many people have spent tremendous amounts of money and have so much emotionally invested in the IVF process. This is more of a property issue. Those people should be free to decide if their own embryos will be used by them or not. There should obviously be penalties if anybody were to deliberately destroy an embryo against the will of the people who hold claim to it. If somebody accidentally destroys an embryo at a clinic, that is a huge problem to say the least, but an accident is not the same thing as murder.

With this Alabama Court decision, which may just be a strict reading of a law passed in Alabama, some of the fertility clinics in the state haveceased operations. That may be an overreaction, as it does not seem like Alabama authorities had any real intent on prosecuting anyone over these matters, but the message was sent, and the story went national. Nikki Haley had a bit of a complex answer in which she said that she believes an embryo is a person. She did express her support for IVF and also volunteered, I believe for the first time, that her son was a product of artificial insemination. (The business practices of a sperm bank would also raise ethical questions for purists.) As the national discussion grew, Republican political figures realized they had to get ahead of this story and talk about how they continued to support IVF. Yesterday, Donald Trump  expressed his support, in a way that is more forceful than he usually is on social issues. We will see if the Alabama Legislature is as influenced by what he wants in regards to "fixing" their law than the Republicans in the U.S. Congress have lately been. Those who want to scare voters and want to tie this to abortion almost certainly do not want this issue to go away anytime soon. In that regard, they are just as wrong as those on the right who want to rail about the problems at the border, but not do anything about it, because it could help them win an election.

I am sure there is much else from the past week that could be discussed. One recent development has been the charges and subsequent arrest of a former FBI informant, who had claimed to have evidence that Joe Biden was deliberately profiting from the business activities of his son Hunter. Many Republicans, including those in Congress, had taken the word of this shady character as the truth and have thus said they had no doubt that Joe Biden had taken bribes and thus should be the subject of an impeachment inquiry. They should have known better because it seems like those specific allegations were made up. As I have said in the past, there are many legitimate ethical questions, that perhaps fall well short of criminal conduct, regarding Joe Biden's willingness to let his family members attempt to cash in on his name. However, when the other party puts up Donald Trump as the opposition, they lose all right to make a legitimate contrast on anything ethics related.

To conclude, I came across this quote from famed sportscaster Bob Costas today. It is no secret that Costas leans left politically and many have thought of him as someone who has always loved the sound of his own voice, but I think he speaks the truth here.
 
"We face a horrible choice before us. One likely Presidential candidate is a loathsome and reprehensible human being. The other is someone who, long ago lost his fastball. Neither one, for different reasons, is fit to fill the most important office in the country. If the one were a CEO of any company, he would have long ago been dismissed for all kinds of H.R. violations. The other would be forced out by the board because he's no longer capable of leading it. This is not the America we had hoped for."

Saturday, February 17, 2024

White House Race- February 17, 2024

It felt like many things have happened over the past week that are worth mentioning, but none worthy of a major focus. From a writing perspective, this seems like an organizational challenge, so I am just going to try to break it down by day.

Sunday-
It was the Super Bowl and a time to tune out about politics.Is that ever possible though? Joe Biden had skipped once again what had been a Presidential tradition of a pre-game sitdown with the network broadcasting the game, that was a mix of soft and hard news questions. Many feel this was a lost opportunity, especially with all the Swifties tuning in.

However, Biden does not do many interviews these days as any gaffe he makes, which are frequent, receive much attention. Instead, his campaign debuted its new Tik Tok account with a pretty cringy video that made the 81 year old President look even older and more un-hip than ever before.

All that aside though, why is Biden on TikTok? It was not long ago, when his Administration banned the device on government apps and said that it was a national security risk. However, in their desire to reach young people on the platform which has also become overrun with pro-terrorist vitriol against Israel, Biden appeared in a video. So, is it a national security risk or not? Does your potential political benefit outweigh that? They seem to think so and that is a very negative statement about Joe Biden.

Somewhat of a more traditional ad appeared on the Super Bowl in which the Robert Kennedy Jr. SuperPAC pretty much used images of him over the horribly cheesy and outdated music and theme that his uncle had used way back in 1960. Many Kennedy relatives said they were offended by this. The Independent candidate sort of apologized to them and said he had nothing to do with it, but continues to feature the ad on his social media. Personally, I noticed an image of RFK Jr.skiing in the ad, which seems odd, because one of his brothers died doing that.

Monday-
I will take this point to note that after the horribly bad week Joe Biden had prior in regards to the Special Prosecutor Report, Donald Trump sure did an amazing job of stepping all over the anti-Biden narrative by his own craziness. The statements Trump made threatening NATO allies that he might encourage Russia to attack them, which I briefly mentioned last week, attracted all sorts of criticism and I think has potential to hurt the presumptive Republican nominee among whatever amount of persuadable voters may be out there.

Despite the fact that only two states have voted thus far, Trump has exercised his dominance over the Republican Party by basically firing his once hand-picked RNC Chair and replacing her with an even more vocal election denier. He also is putting his daughter in law as the RNC Co-Chair. I will note that Maureen Reagan was indeed the RNC Co-Chair during the final stages of her father's Administration, but that was a bit different, as the Gipper was not seeking reelection at the time and was currently President.

Now, Lara Trump is basically saying that all RNC money will go towards Donald Trump. Down the ballot races apparently will not matter. Many want the Republican Committee to be devoted to paying for the legal judgments incurred by the self-proclaimed billionaire in place of anything more directly election related. To say the least, Nikki Haley is complaining about this, but the die seems to be set.

On another front, Jon Stewart is returning to the Daily Show on Comedy Central after many years away. It is not a show I ever really watched but I did catch his monologue on YouTube this week. In it, he makes it very clear that he views Trump as the largest threat facing democracy but also pretty sharply skewered Biden for not being the strongest possible person to stop Trump, especially related to age.

As could be predicted, Biden fans (or those who are going through the motions) were heavily critical of Stewart. They believe that no criticism of Biden should ever be aired during an election campaign. In some ways, it is hard to blame them. Basically, the entire national political career of Barack Obama, even up until now, has been without him being the subject of any truly negative comedic commentary. While plenty on the right were merciless towards Obama, the late night comedians and shows like Saturday Night Live never basically spared him, especially during his terms as President. Any Obama satire was more complimentary in nature towards him than negative. That had never happened before or since for a President. SNL has continued to mock Trump more than Biden (though that just might be opportunity) but Biden does get made fun of a whole lot more than Obama ever did. Of course, he is older, whiter, and far less "cool."
 
Tuesday- 
First Republicans in the House managed to finally impeach Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, by a one vote margin. I talked about that in greater detail last week. That was soon knocked off the news though by the fact that the House GOP majority would shrink by one.
 
In New York, Tom Suozzi, always the favorite, but considered to be in a very tough race, reclaimed the Congressional seat he had vacated and which went in the interim to the infamous George Santos. In his win, Suozzi won by a larger margin than expected and by more than some late polls were predicting. Democrats were understandably pumped. After all, they needed some good news. I will mention that Suozzi did much to keep Biden at arm's length during this special election campaign, even as Biden had won that district by eight points in 2020. On issues like the border and Israel, Suozzi often sounded more like a Republican than a Democrat. Those were the issues local and national Republicans thought could cost him, but once again Democrats outperformed the polls and their greater success at early voting, (especially when a blizzard hits on Election Day) benefited them. Since Trump hates early voting, many of his supporters do not take the opportunity and that has hurt them. The issue of abortion probably also hurt Republicans in this race.

While the unconventional Republican nominee in this race was perhaps a less than stellar candidate after all, there was really nothing earth shattering here. Suozzi won by basically the margin that Biden had won the district by and showed that 2022 was the anomaly. Despite that, Trump viciously attacked the losing Republican (a black Jewish female immigrant) for being "foolish" and not embracing him more. Of course, Trump had lost that district big too when he ran. so his theory makes little sense.

All of these things should continue to be warning signs to Republicans about the political weakness that Trump brings to all of them, especially in suburban, upscale areas. Suozzi might be the hero of the week to some on the left, but they pretty much have to admit he ran against them and their tactics in order to win. Obviously, it worked, and if national Democrats were a lot more Suozzi-like, their party would be in far better shape heading into November.

Wednesday-
I think I can largely skip this one. I talked in my Super Bowl result post yesterday about the terrible shooting at the Super Bowl rally in Kansas City. In the meantime, Congress continues to be at odds over foreign aid issues, as Trump controlled Republicans walk the line about complaining about problems at the border but not wanting to do anything about them. There have been mixed messages galore about what can get done to provide aid for Israel and Ukraine. The fact of the matter is though that Trump does not want to help Ukraine and many of his minions will fall in line behind that.

Thursday-
This day's news largely took place in courtrooms.
 
First, a New York City judge ruled that the criminal trial of Donald Trump over his hush money to Stormy Daniels will get under way late next month. The substance of the charges are probably the weakest ones against Trump and the harder to generate public outrage, but for those hoping to officially make Trump a "convicted felon" by Election Day, this will probably be the best and possibly only chance.
 
 There was all sorts of drama down south in Atlanta. The saga of District Attorney Fani Willis and her now former (married) boyfriend who is also a prosecutor on the case is too complex to get into on detail.  Trump and his fellow co-defendants are of course trying to get Willis and her team kicked off the case for an unfair conflict of interest because money was exchanged by the two lawyers who are being paid by the government as part of their romantic involvement. This can be used as a delay tactic if nothing else.

First, the ex-boyfriend testified, and then to the surprise of many, Fani Willis took the stance herself and it all made for some combative moments and riveting television. I thought this prosecutor taking the stand on live television would turn into a disaster for her, but she seemed to have a strategy. It felt like she was auditioning for a slot on "Real Housewives of Atlanta." I think Bravo would be lucky to have her. She definitely would know how to "read a bitch" She also seemed to relish the opportunity to paint her ex as a male chauvinist. So, why is he still making so much money to be on this case as your colleague?

Willis tried to do whatever she could to make the questioning about her appear racist or sexist. I think in many ways she put on an unfortunate and shameful performance. However, it probably will work on not getting her kicked off the case because she only needs to convince the Judge, who seemed a bit shell-shocked by the whole thing. Defense attorneys need to prove that her actions make it impossible for their clients to get a fair trial. It does not seem like what she did rises to that level. Willis was expected to take the stand again on Friday for "repair work" from her own legal allies, but they apparently seemed that would not be needed.  Still, one should be able to objectively say that her decision to get involved with the other lawyer (whenever it began) was a very bad idea from the standpoint of personal and professional conduct and ethics and that these actions in the most high profile case she will ever have put the entire effort at risk.

Friday-

The first thing to mention is that retiring West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin announced he would not be running for President as a third party candidate, after publicly mulling it over for months. This really puts the No Labels effort to find a centrist alternative even further behind the eight ball. I am not all that surprised, but of course regret that Americans like me will probably not have the opportunity to see a name on the ballot of someone who we can at least not feel disgusted by voting for. There is always the write-in option, which I will likely do in my non-competitive state. The fact is that Joe Biden is such a terribly weak candidate and everyone knows it, and thus nobody wants their legacy to be that they cost Biden the election against Trump. Biden and his people should consider the possibility that their legacy might wind up being that they elected Donald Trump by losing to hm in a race that should never have been run.

Later on in the afternoon, the decision on the judgment phase of Donald Trump's civil fraud trial in New York City came down. It was staggering bad news for the one time mega-developer and his horrible adult sons, who probably never really had a chance in life to be decent people, considering who their father is. Trump owes a hell of a lot of millions of dollars, even more than he did before, and that has to be eating away at him. He will continue to pay the victim though for political purposes. Some of his supporters are already trying to raise money to pay his fines on GoFundMe. Such is a cult.

The biggest news of the day from my perspective is waking up to the news that Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny had been reported dead in his Russian prison camp. While this is probably not a huge surprise, he did appear healthy in a video the day prior. He was just 47 years old.

Nobody knows precisely what happened, but safe to say, Vladimir Putin had him murdered. He has done that to so many people in his country and others before who have dared to oppose him. The Russian government is already taking steps to not release Navalny's body. They definitely do not want anyone to be able to figure out what happened.

President Joe Biden issued a strong rhetorical response to Putin on this event, but the words seem hallow. A long time ago, he said there would be severe consequences for Putin if Navalny died? Will there be? Beyond the U.S. still attempting to aid Ukraine? Probably not. Putin sees weakness in the Congress and the political weaknesses of Joe Biden and took the opportunity. This is not to say that Putin, the brutal murderer and terrorist, is not completely and totally responsible for this atrocity. In the meantime, useful idiot Tucker Carlson, who gave a non-challenging interview to Putin, is focusing on how clean the subway is in Moscow and how cheaper things are at the grocery stores. Well, for one thing, Russians make a lot less money and pay a lot more proportionally than most Americans do, but there are many other things Tucker should be taking into consideration.

People around the world, for all eternity, should study the life and courage of Alexei Navalny, a martyr for freedom and for his country. I admit that I do not know as much about hm as I should. May his death not be in vain.

MAGA acolytes reacted in despicable ways, even as Trump has remained completely about Putin and Navalny after the event. Some claim that they took Putin at his word when he recently said he prefers Biden to be reelected instead of Trump. Gee, how dumb are they? They claim that Navalny never would be killed if Trump was President. The facts are that Navalny was first poisoned when Trump was President. He did not die then, instead he bravely returned to his country, was imprisoned when Trump was President. Trump, as President, never said a word.

Even worse, some are trying to claim that Trump is the American Navaly and that Biden is trying to make it so he dies in prison.That is almost even too ridiculous to address. For one thing, Trump has due process in the courts. He is also running for his country's top job. That comparison of Trump to Navalny is insulting and anti-American. Trump is far more like Putin, at least in his desires.

Nikki Haley has continued to be harsh on Trump after Navalny's death. Former Vice President Mike Pence remarked once again that "there is no room in the Republican Party for apologists of Putin." If these two politicians actually mean what they say, there is no way they can ever endorse Donald Trump this year. We will be watching.

Saturday-
As the week ends, I am still thinking of Navalny and all the victims of Putin, including the millions repressed within Russia. Americans should be thinking of them, and the brave people of Ukraine, and the courageous people of Israel, the Palestinians victimized by their own terrorist leaders, and people all over the world who yearn for the freedom we have (at least now) in America. Elections are about what kind of country and what kind of people we are. It is far more than "the economy, stupid."

While we cannot turn back the clock, I am always mindful how much better America and the world would be today if Mitt Romney would have been our President instead of Barack Obama, Donald Trump, or Joe Biden.

Yesterday, in speaking of the death of Navalny, the retiring Utah Senator Tweeted out the passage:

Isaiah 5:20–“Woe unto them that call evil good, and good evil; that put darkness for light, and light for darkness; that put bitter for sweet, and sweet for bitter!”

Friday, February 16, 2024

Super Bowl LVIII (Taylor's Version)

 Paradise, Nevada

San Francisco 49ers (14-5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (14-6) W 1

Niners blow another SB lead and finish 14-6

Chiefs win another Super Bowl in a 15-6 season.

Super Bowl Result: 1-0 (100%)
Final Result: 139-146 (49%)
 
What more can be said? This was the most celebrity-overrun Super Bowl ever and apparently the biggest television event since the Moon Landing. Some people think both events were a conspiracy.

Frankly, the early parts of the game were sort of boring, but the end was riveting. People got their money's worth seeing the game go into Overtime, with the new postseason rules in play for the first time, and Patrick Mahomes continuing to seal his legacy with a walk-off Touchdown pass on the final drive.

Travis Kelce had an interesting game, which included screaming at and bumping his coach Andy Reid, but in the end, he and his team were victorious and he celebrated on the field with Taylor Swift, who was basically the focus of it all. Somehow, a former teenage country singer with a marginal vocal range, has taken over the world of pop music and is clearly the biggest celebrity in America right now. If she makes a Presidential endorsement, it will be huge news, although 10 year old girls are not legally able to vote.

Yesterday, the Chiefs had a parade and rally in Kansas City, featuring some drunken singing by Kelce. A good time appeared to have been had by all, but then tragedy struck near the stage, as the proceedings were wrapping up.

A woman is dead and many people, mostly children, were injured by gunfire. This horrific story came sixteen years to the date of the mass shooting at my alma mater of Northern Illinois University and six years to the date of the massacre at Marjorie Stoneman Douglas High School in Florida

What happened here though does not appear to have been a targeted assault. Instead, the theory is that a group of young people had some sort of altercation or argument and guns were drawn and the two juveniles who have been charged start firing indiscriminately. There was no assault weapon involved and obviously, these teenagers had no legal right to be carrying those guns, but their actions have ended a life and scarred the experiences and memories of countless others. All this happened with numerous uniformed law enforcement personnel at the scene. What causes anyone to think they have the right to just start firing a weapon? 

There are many questions for our society, but once again, life goes on. The Chiefs were saddened to be sure, but were out partying that same night. That is just the way things go. All NFL fanbases would love to have a big parade and rally in their city this time next year, regardless of what unexpected danger might be present.

So, the big question here is what will the Chicago Bears do with the Number One Draft Pick? I will go on record and say I hope they keep Justin Fields as their Quarterback, but people supposedly smarter than me about football will be tasked with making the right decision.

Monday, February 12, 2024

U.S. House Special Election

New York

3. vacant upon expulsion of George Santos (R)
won by Biden with 54% of the vote

Tossup (D)

Saturday, February 10, 2024

White House Race- February 10, 2024

This was a week that was going one way, fairly predictable in a sense, although with some surprising occurrences on Capitol Hill. Those are the sort of things that political junkies care about more than "normal people."

Then, a story broke on Thursday afternoon that might have implications that matter a lot more to the average voter. It remains to be seen how this will all shake out by November, but these are tense times and both parties seem on a path to nominate candidates that partisan tribalists will rally around and excuse for literally anything. Less committed Americans are very dissatisfied with both choices. More so, it does not seem like there is really any serious ramping up on behalf of any person who might be a unifying third party candidate. We are headed to a decision where the vast majority of Americans, more so than ever before, will be voting against a candidate, and not for a candidate.That is if they even vote at all. My feeling is that a whole lot of people may be motivated enough to keep one candidate or another out of the White House, that they will show up.

After the events of this week though, it is clearer than ever that there is malfeasance, dishonesty, hypocrisy, and faux outrage that permeates through both parties. America is the lesser for it.

So to start off with, Joe Biden and Donald Trump won Nevada and are adding to their delegate lead. The Republican contest was more confusing. There was an official Caucus in which Donald Trump was the only major candidate. Before that, there was a non-binding primary, where Trump did not take part, but his campaign told people to vote for "None of These Candidates", a fairly unique Nevada option, and the Nobodys easily outpaced Nikki Haley. While I would have voted for Haley had I lived in Nevada, "None of These Candidates", might be a truer description of how I feel about today's Republicans.

There was dysfunction on Capitol Hill this week. No wonder more and more of the "sane" or "serious" Republicans are making decisions to head for the exits after their current term ends. Those in the Republican Party, loyal to Donald Trump, tanked the most conservative immigration reform bill in decades, because they said it was not conservative enough, but more so because those subservient to Trump knows he needs to complain about an issue far more than wanting to see a problem actually be fixed. For months, these Trump Republicans insisted that aid to Israel and Ukraine be tied to border security. When the time to vote came though, they turned their backs on that concept. So, stand alone aid to Israel and then also to Ukraine, one of which is far more popular with Republicans than the other is back on.

The House Republican majority under Speaker Mike Johnson failed to get enough votes though to secure the Israel aid package. A coalition of the deplorable on both the far left and far right voted against it, although at least a few pro-Israel Democrats voted against it as a protest the political machinations.

On the same day, Republicans though they were about to impeach Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, This would have made him the first Cabinet Secretary to be impeached in nearly 150 years. While I have major problems with the Biden Administration approach on border issues, impeaching Mayorkas is pointless and cheap political theater that sets a horrible precedent. Only three House Republicans agreed with me. Two of them are now retiring. For one thing, there will nowhere near enough votes to impeach the Secretary after a trial in the U.S. Senate. Next, even if he were forced out of office in such a way, Joe Biden would just pick a replacement, formally confirmed by the Senate or not, who will implement the same Biden policies. If they want to impeach anyone, they should impeach Biden, but they do not have the votes to do that at this point.So, this is what elections are all about.

The embarrassing thing was the way Republicans miscounted though, leading the vote to fail by one. I was very happy to see that. Apparently, a House Democrat they thought was absent showed up in a wheelchair to cast his vote. They have no right to be upset about that. House Majority Leader Steve Scalise was absent as he has been out of Washington undergoing cancer treatment. With three GOP defections, they wound up one vote short and poor (I don't mean that seriously) Blake Moore of Utah had to change his vote from yes to no, in order to allow him the procedural right to call the vote again, which is going to happen when Scalise returns to the House. Then, Mayorkas is likely to finally get impeached, pointlessly. For now though, Johnson and his fellow Trump stooge have egg all over their face. Of course, they had fewer margin for error because they kicked George Santos out of Congress and after being deposed as Speaker, Kevin McCarthy has peaced out.
 
On Monday, I will issue a formal prediction on a special U.S. House election in which Democrats might be able to pick up the seat that Santos had held for Republicans. Obviously, this contest will have serious impact on the balance of power, but more importantly will be seen as a major bellwether for this fall, particular on the issue of the migrant crisis and also crime, which has become a very salient issue in the New York City area.

Thursday morning, saw the Supreme Court listen to arguments as to whether or not Trump should be left off the Colorado ballot, as that state's Supreme Court ruled. As expected, it appears clear that the SCOTUS is poised to rule 9-0, or maybe 8-1 at worst, in favor of Trump. They will probably go heavily the other way in regards to the Presidential Immunity argument in another case, this Colorado thing will be seen as a win for Trump. It is rare that he gets any good news in any courtroom, so this has to be pointed out. Maybe he just had a better lawyer for this matter.

Then, the day unexpectedly turned and made things even better for Trump, both politically, and potentially as it relates to one of his legal cases.

It has largely been forgotten that Joe Biden has since early last year been the subject of a Special Counsel investigation regarding the fact that he had classified documents at his home in Delaware. Nobody expected he would wind up being charged with anything when all was said and done, but it recently been mentioned that his team was preparing perhaps for some embarrassing photos showing the storage of those documents.

Yes, those photos came out, and no, Biden is not being charged with a crime, but I, along with many others, was pretty much blown away by what his lengthy report said and what it means or perhaps should mean in regards to the incumbent's reelection campaign, or even if he should currently remain as President for the rest of this term. It was a whole lot worse than I expected.

On the substance, the narrative that Biden had put out there about how he did not know he had these documents turned out to not entirely be true. Apparently, he knew he had stuff in 2017 from his time as Vice President that he knew should not have had, and shared them with his ghostwriter. It sounds very similar to Trump's situation. The report says this was a significant national security risk. Biden took no steps to return these documents or classified information to the government in 2017, as he should have.

Now, it has to be pointed out that there is a big difference with Trump,even as Biden had been on television asking how Trump could be so careless, when he should have and perhaps did know how careless he had also been. After the Trump story broke, Biden cooperated with the government. Trump did not and fought it, which is why he got indicted and Biden did not. That seems appropriate to me. Special Counsel Robert Hur, a one-time Trump appointee as U.S. Attorney,who was named by Attorney General Merrick Garland in this special case said this very same thing in his report. So, Democrats from coast to coast are attacking Hur as a MAGA acolyte trying to get Trump elected, they should ask themselves why such a person would be saying in the report that what Trump did was worse than Biden. The allegation against Hur just does not hold up.

There are a lot of claims that some of the language and conclusions in the Hur report, which sound extremely bad for Biden somehow went too far. Nobody is really denying the reality of the findings though. They just think it should have been kept under the rug. This is a very common thing for people close to Biden. No wonder he is once again not doing the traditional Super Bowl Pregame Show interview. Last year, they said it would be too risky to sit down with Fox News. This year, CBS is getting snubbed. 

The report says that charges against Biden might have been warranted but it would have been hard to secure a conviction because he would present himself sympathetically as a "well-intentioned elderly man with a failing memory." Gee, what a campaign slogan. Personally, I think that is better than a malicious elderly man with a grudge against the world like Donald Trump is, but the reality is that both have been making a ton of verbal slips and confusing statements in recent weeks, and this leads to major questions about the health of both men and their fitness to serve as President through as many as five years from now.

The Hur Report said Biden could not remember what years he was Vice President. That is a monster red flag for me, even as someone who has consistently defended him against allegations that he has dementia. I do not think he actually does, but something not good is going on. It also said that he did not remember what year, within five years even, that his son Beau died. I refuse to believe he does not remember that. The President and people close to him put on an act that they were so offended that Beau even came up, but the questioning was completely legitimate because it related to a book Biden wrote about Beau's passing in which classified information regarding Afghanistan, during his time as Vice President, was part of the discussion.
 
Any decent American has sympathy for Joe Biden over the death of his son and his previous losses.As pointed out, these were legitimate questions as it related to the investigation. Biden really has no right to act offended over this. He talks about Beau's death all the time. He wrote a book about it. He brings it up whenever he attempts to comfort anyone who has lost a child. This is a good trait of Biden (although some families have said that his doing so made them feel uneasy or that he has misstated the facts.) He has encouraged people to speak openly about their losses and experiences with grief as a means to healing. Biden really has no right to act like he was victimized by this topic.

Nobody is saying Hur is lying about these things. They just wish he did not mention them. If Hur or his deputies acted maliciously during the questioning, they should ask for a redacted transcript to be released. They do not seem to want to do that.

So, Biden seems to have genuinely said in these interviews he had forgotten which years these things happened. Either that was actually the case or he was somehow off his game, as implied because it was right after Hamas's attack on Israel and he was focused on that. If so, I think they should have reasonably asked to postpone the interview for a few days, even though a President should be able to do and focus on many things at once.

Biden was under oath when asked these questions and he should have answered them if there is truly not an issue with his memory. Was he perhaps pulling a Vincent "The Chin" Gigante and merely pretending to be doddery in order to avoid being charged with a crime? If so, it worked but I do not think that happened. I think Biden was just so pissed off to have to do this interview or be questioned about his actions, that deep down he knew had been inappropriate, that he got testy and did not answer. Whatever the true scenario, it was not a good look, and now he has a world of problems because of it.

The Biden White House and Democrats immediately put on a full court press to attack Hur and this report. It is somewhat confusing though because they want people to believe the report totally exonerates him, while at the same time claiming the report is full of falsehoods. It really cannot be both.

In attacking Hur, they are taking a page from the Donald Trump playbook (first utilized by Bill Clinton) in attacking the prosecutors.  For months now, Trump has been railing about Alvin Bragg, Jack Smith, Leticia James, Fanni Willis, and others. In the case of Fulton's County's Willis, there have been some serious questions raised about her personal behavior and ethics involving that case, which could endanger the prosecution's attempt to convict Trump, especially before the election.

The bottom line is that Democrats and Biden are acting exactly like Trump. I have little sympathy for politicians who know they did something wrong, such as Hillary Clinton, and now Joe Biden, and despite that, are told they are not getting charged with anything, but then go on a political crusade to defend their electoral prospects by attacking the findings that technically cleared them. There has to be a better way for them to take a less serious L and portray it as a bigger W.

Indeed, this all does seem to feel similar to the Hillary Clinton/James Comey situation, minus the press conference announcing no charges. The irony is that if Clinton had been charged by the Justice Department (and would likely never actually gotten prison time), it would have allowed Democrats to find another candidate who would have probably beaten Trump easily in 2016. Adding to that irony, that candidate all but certainly would have been Joe Biden. Nonetheless, Clinton was not charged, her party's partisans rallied around her and against Comey, and she continued a doomed campaign that produced a President Trump.

Is a Biden 2024 campaign similarly doomed? Well, he was having some major political problems before and obviously, this is all going to hurt. A hastily arranged semi-press conference on Thursday evening (I thought for a minute he might actually do an LBJ and drop out of the race) pleased some Democrats because Biden was angry and self-righteous in defense of his mental competency and record. (Personally, I was pretty outraged when he said that Israel had gone "over the top" in fighting Hamas. After this week, they would know a lot about "over the top.) However, in this press conference, Biden committed yet another gaffe, coming after a few he had made a few the week prior. In this one, he said the President of Egypt was the President of Mexico. Mistakes happen, and Biden has been making mistakes literally for decades, which is why I do not feel he is totally senile, but it is hard to explain that one away. Attempts at further spin by the White House, by dodging legitimate media questions, also did not help.

I could go on and on about all of this but should not go on forever. Simply put though, concerns about Biden's age and vitality are the number one issue of this campaign, even more so than all the questions about Donald Trump being a fully fledged career criminal. Yet, Democrats insist, at least publicly, that Biden and only Biden, is the man to beat Trump and lead America forward. For their sake, they better be right, because most of the country really doubts that. The Republican spin machine will attack Biden every day about his slip ups and perception of his being in steep mental and physical decline. Democrats and the Biden campaign want to say similar things about Donald Trump, but are going to have a harder time doing so. They will also want people to be aware of Trump being charged for mishandling classified documents in a willful way, but now it is known that Biden did the same thing. Some will complain (unfairly I think) that only one of the men was charged, but the entire issue is muddled,and Trump's legal team will try to use this to their advantage in the Florida courtroom.

This has been a very bad week for Joe Biden. He and his team will have to try to find a strategy to fight public perception. It seems like his staff has little confidence in him and will be wary to present him to the public in anything but the most structured, scripted events. If his own people do not have confidence in him, why should the American people? By the same token, we should never forget how many people who worked with Donald Trump during his four years as President have come to believe he is very unfit  in a variety of ways.
 
Things Donald Trump said today at a South Carolina rally demonstrate once again what a pathetic and despicable person he is. He attacked Nikki Haley's husband for not being on the campaign tail (as if Melania has been.) 

Major Michael Haley is a commissioned officer with the South Carolina National Guard and is currently deployed with the 218th Maneuver Enhancement Brigade in the Horn of Africa. Donald Trump would crap his pants within five minutes if he were there. Trump is a man who has a long and collaborated history of saying things that were disrespectful to hostile of the service and sacrifice of people who have worn our country's uniform. He thinks they are "suckers and losers" for fighting for America's freedom and not to enrich themselves personally. Perhaps the only excuse might be that Trump is too dumb to know that Michael Haley is currently deployed. I think he knew though.

On an even more sinister matter, Trump spoke about how as President he will not defend our NATO allies, but would actually encourage Russia to do whatever they can to hurt them in an attack, if these countries did not "pay up" their share of defense dues. In saying this, Trump has never sounded more like a Mafioso. Such a man should never be anywhere near the Oval Office. As a matter of conscience, I cannot vote for Joe Biden in a state that he should easily win without me, but I would take my chances on a person in in full on dementia over Trump.

Something else surprised me on Friday. Recently term limited Maryland Governor Larry Hogan, who had been the popular Republican executive of a very blue state, announced he would be a GOP candidate for the U.S. Senate this year. I did not expect he would run for President as the No Labels candidate, as he had publicly mulled. but I did not see this race coming. He was immediately attacked by both the left and right, which of course makes me want to root for him. I suppose he might have a chance, but I genuinely do not see how he can win a federal race in Maryland during a Presidential year., especially with MAGA in his state hating him. Running for President as an Independent, might not have put him in the White House, but it could have given him a better national platform.

It seems clear that center-left and center-right folks who would seek to fill the obvious vacuum for the people who want neither Trump nor Biden are being very leery in launching. The conventional wisdom has become that Biden is so weak and so feeble politically that any such effort would hurt him more than Trump and they do not want to play spoiler. They are perhaps correct. 
 
Democrats have hard questions to ask themselves and the clock is ticking each day before it might become too late. Is Joe Biden really the best they can do in 2024? Is it anything other than ego and hubris and a lack of self-realization that keeps him running? This is a matter Democrats will need to determine amongst themselves. They seem to not be willing to really even consider it and thus, they are putting a whole lot on the line for the nation and the world.
 
A whole lot of people are going to need to pull Joe Biden over the finish line if he is to win. Then, in a new term, who knows what America will get?