Wednesday, December 12, 2018

NFL Week 15 Games

NOT PREDICTIONS

Overall Results: 109-97 (53%)

1. Chargers (10-3) at Chiefs (11-2)
2. Texans (9-4) at Jets (4-9)
3. Browns (5-7-1) at Broncos (6-7)
4. Packers (5-7-1) at Bears (9-4)
5. Lions (5-8) at Bills (4-9)
6. Buccaneers (5-8) at Ravens (7-6)
7. Cardinals (3-10) at Falcons (4-9)
8. Raiders (3-10) at Bengals (5-8)
9. Titans (7-6) at Giants (5-8)
10. Dolphins (7-6) at Vikings (6-6-1)
11. Redskins (6-7) at Jaguars (4-9)
12. Cowboys (8-5) at Colts (7-6)
13. Seahawks (8-5) at 49ers (3-10)
14. Patriots (9-4) at Steelers (7-5-1)
15. Eagles (6-7) at Rams (11-2)
16. Saints (11-2) at Panthers (6-7)

Tuesday, December 11, 2018

NFL Week 14 Results

NOT PREDICTIONS

1. Jaguars (4-8) at Titans (6-6) W 1
2. Jets (3-9) at Bills (4-8) L 1
3. Giants (4-8) at Redskins (6-6) W 2
4. Saints (10-2) at Buccaneers (5-7) L 2
5. Patriots (9-3) at Dolphins (6-6) W 3
6. Ravens (7-5) at Chiefs (10-2) W 4
7. Colts (6-6) at Texans (9-3) L 3
8. Falcons (4-8) at Packers (4-7-1) L 4
9. Panthers (6-6) at Browns (4-7-1) W 5
10. Broncos (6-6) at 49ers (2-10) L 5
11. Bengals (5-7) at Chargers (9-3) L 6
12. Lions (4-8) at Cardinals (3-9) L 7
13. Steelers (7-4-1) at Raiders (2-10) L 8
14. Eagles (6-6) at Cowboys (7-5) L 9
15. Rams (11-1) at Bears (8-4) W 6
16. Vikings (6-5-1) at Seahawks (7-5) L 10

Week 14 Results: 6-10 (38%)
Overall Results: 109-97 (53%)

Saturday, December 08, 2018

2018-2019 College Football Bowl Games

Next Saturday, Bowl Season will be underway. For some odd reason, I have come to enjoy college football more recently than I ever did previously, although after several of these games, it can get to be a bit much.

It is fun though to at least check out a few minutes from each game or highlights of those that I will not be able to see at all. The teams listed in bold font will be those that I want to win, although as I always say, I do not have a strong rooting interest in most cases. I just want to see competitive games that go down to the wire. This is a pretty exciting time though in the Chicagoland area (as long as one is not a fan of the hapless University of Illinois.)  Undefeated Notre Dame is in the Playoff and while many feel they will be over-matched in their first game, are one of four teams with a chance to win the National Championship. Then, the Northwestern Wildcats, "Chicago's Big Ten Team" actually won a Big 10 Division title (albeit by far the weaker of the two divisions) and while they did not make it to the Rose Bowl, they and their coach are easy to root for.

Finally, my alma mater Northern Illinois, continues to be far better than they ever were when I was a student. This year, they won all sorts of close games in the MAC (while being competitive with some big name schools on their schedule) and won a division, even though they were lethargic and lost their last two regular season games. In their conference championship game, they looked out of their depth and were down 29-10 early in the Second Half. What followed was an exciting comeback though, as they took the lead in the final minute and won 30-29. For that, they are headed to what is likely to be a sparsely attended Bowl Game in the middle of the week, but all Huskies should still be excited.

What follows are a list of the games. The rankings will be taken from the official College Football Playoff standings.

1. Celebration Bowl
Atlanta, GA

North Carolina Agricultural and Technical State Aggies vs. Alcorn State Braves

2. New Mexico Bowl
Albuquerque, NM

North Texas Mean Green vs. Utah State Aggies

3. Cure Bowl
Orlando, FL

Tulane Green Wave vs. Louisiana at Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns

4. Las Vegas Bowl
Whitney, NV

# 21 California State, Fresno Bulldogs vs. Arizona State Sun Devils

5. Camellia Bowl
Montgomery, AL

Georgia Southern Eagles vs. Eastern Michigan Eagles

6. New Orleans Bowl
New Orleans, LA

Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders vs. Appalachian State Mountaineers

7. Boca Raton Bowl
Boca Raton, FL

Alabama at Birmingham Blazers vs. Northern Illinois Huskies

8. Frisco Bowl
Frisco, TX

San Diego State Aztecs vs. Ohio Bobcats

9. Gasparilla Bowl
Tampa, FL

Marshall Thundering Herd vs. South Florida Bulls

10. Bahamas Bowl
Nassau, Commonwealth of The Bahamas

Florida International Panthers vs. Toledo Rockets

11. Potato Bowl
Boise, ID

Western Michigan Broncos vs. Brigham Young Cougars

12. Birmingham Bowl
Birmingham, AL

Memphis Tigers vs. Wake Forest Demon Deacons

13. Armed Forces Bowl
Fort Worth, TX

Houston Cougars vs. United States Military Academy at West Point Black Knights

14. Dollar General Bowl
Mobile, AL

State University of New York at Buffalo Bulls vs. Troy Trojans

15. Hawai'i Bowl
Halawa, HI

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs vs. Hawai'i at Manoa Rainbow Warriors

16. First Responder Bowl
Dallas, TX

Boston College Eagles vs. # 25 Boise State Broncos

17.  Quick Lane Bowl
Detroit, MI

Minnesota, Twin Cities Golden Gophers vs. Georgia Institute of Technology Yellow Jackets

18. Cheez-It Bowl
Phoenix, AZ

California, Berkeley Golden Bears vs. Texas Christian Horned Frogs

19. Independence Bowl
Shreveport, LA

Temple Owls vs. Duke Blue Devils

20. Pinstripe Bowl
New York, NY

Miami Hurricanes vs. Wisconsin-Madison Badgers

21. Texas Bowl
Houston, TX

Baylor Bears vs. Vanderbilt Commodores

22. Music City Bowl
Nashville, TN

Purdue Boilermakers vs. Auburn Tigers

23. Camping World Bowl
Orlando, FL

# 16 West Virginia Mountaineers vs. # 20 Syracuse Orange

24. Alamo Bowl
San Antonio, TX

# 24 Iowa State University of Science and Technology Cyclones vs. # 13 Washington State Cougars

25. Peach Bowl
Atlanta, GA

# 10 Florida Gators vs. # 7 Michigan Wolverines

26. Belk Bowl
Charlotte, NC

South Carolina Gamecocks vs. Virginia Cavaliers

27. Arizona Bowl
Tuscon, AZ

Arkansas State Red Wolves vs. Nevada, Reno Wolf Pack

28. Cotton Bowl
Arlington, TX

# 2 Clemson Tigers vs. # 3 Notre Dame du Lac Fighting Irish

29. Orange Bowl
Miami Gardens, FL

#1 Alabama Crimson Tide vs. # 4 Oklahoma Sooners

30. Military Bowl
Annapolis, MD

Cincinnati Bearcats vs. Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State Hokies

31. Sun Bowl
El Paso, TX

Leland Stanford Junior Cardinal vs. Pittsburgh Panthers

32. Redbox Bowl
Santa Clara, CA

Michigan State Spartans vs. Oregon Ducks

33. Liberty Bowl
Memphis, TN

# 23 Missouri Tigers vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys

34. Holiday Bowl
San Diego, CA

# 22 Northwestern Wildcats vs. # 17 Utah Utes

35. Gator Bowl
Jacksonville, FL

North Carolina State Wolfpack vs. # 19 Texas A&M Aggies

36. Outback Bowl
Tampa, FL

# 18 Mississippi State University of Agriculture and Applied Science Bulldogs vs. Iowa Hawkeyes

37. Citrus Bowl
Orlando, FL

# 14 Kentucky Wildcats vs. # 12 Pennsylvania State Nittany Lions

38. Fiesta Bowl
Glendale, AZ

# 11 Louisiana State University and Agricultural and Mechanical College Tigers vs. # 8 Central Florida Knights

39. Rose Bowl
Pasadena, CA

# 9 Washington Huskies vs. # 6 Ohio State Buckeyes

40. Sugar Bowl
New Orleans, LA

# 15 Texas at Austin Longhorns vs. # 5 Georgia Bulldogs

41. National Championship
Santa Clara, CA

Cotton Bowl Winner vs. Orange Bowl Winner

Notre Dame over Oklahoma
Notre Dame over Alabama
Clemson over Oklahoma
Clemson over Alabama

Wednesday, December 05, 2018

NFL Week 14 Games

Overall Results: 103-87 (54%)

1. Jaguars (4-8) at Titans (6-6)
2. Jets (3-9) at Bills (4-8)
3. Giants (4-8) at Redskins (6-6)
4. Saints (10-2) at Buccaneers (5-7)
5. Patriots (9-3) at Dolphins (6-6)
6. Ravens (7-5) at Chiefs (10-2)
7. Colts (6-6) at Texans (9-3)
8. Falcons (4-8) at Packers (4-7-1)
9. Panthers (6-6) at Browns (4-7-1)
10. Broncos (6-6) at 49ers (2-10)
11. Bengals (5-7) at Chargers (9-3)
12. Lions (4-8) at Cardinals (3-9)
13. Steelers (7-4-1) at Raiders (2-10)
14. Eagles (6-6) at Cowboys (7-5)
15. Rams (11-1) at Bears (8-4)
16. Vikings (6-5-1) at Seahawks (7-5)

Tuesday, December 04, 2018

NFL Week 13 Results

NOT PREDICTIONS

1. Saints (10-1) at Cowboys (6-5) W 1
2. Ravens (6-5) at Falcons (4-7) W 2
3. Panthers (6-5) at Buccaneers (4-7) W 3
4. Bears (8-3) at Giants (3-8) L 1
5. Bills (4-7) at Dolphins (5-6) L 2
6. Colts (6-5) at Jaguars (3-8) L 3
7. Browns (4-6-1) at Texans (8-3) W 4
8. Broncos (5-6) at Bengals (5-6) L 4
9. Rams (10-1) at Lions (4-7) L 5
10. Cardinals (2-9) at Packers (4-6-1) W 5
11. Chiefs (9-2) at Raiders (2-9) W 6
12. Jets (3-8) at Titans (5-6) W 7
13. 49ers (2-9) at Seahawks (6-5) L 6
14. Vikings (6-4-1) at Patriots (8-3) W 8
15. Chargers (8-3) at Steelers (7-3-1) L 7
16. Redskins (6-5) at Eagles (5-6) W 9

Week 13 Results: 9-7 (56%)
Overall Results: 103-87 (54%)

Saturday, December 01, 2018

41: Mission Completed

No President of the United States has lived a longer life than George Herbert Walker Bush did and likely none as fulfilling. At the age of 94, his time on Earth has ended, and while the news of late last night was not a tremendous surprise, it still feels somewhat surreal, for all that he meant to the country and how I viewed him throughout my own life. An era continues to pass, but the outpouring of respect and emotion that is being given to President Bush now and in the days ahead should serve as a reminder for how he lived, the example he provided, and inherent contrast we cannot help but notice.

For some reason, I became interested in the unfolding 1988 Presidential campaign as a child and was rooting for the then Vice President to prevail. I remember watching parts of the convention, the debates, and  thirty years to the month before last night's news, working on an "exit poll" for my elementary school newspaper among those actually voting in my school's cafeteria. People in my neighborhood seemed to prefer Dukakis, at least at the hour I was asking them their preferences, but I woke up the next morning relieved to hear that George Bush was going to be President.

His swearing-in as President the next January was piped into our classrooms via the school's intercom and I remember so much about those four years, from the Berlin Wall coming down, to the victory in Desert Storm, to the scary images of the President becoming ill in Japan, to Dana Carvey's enduring impression on Saturday Night Live. By the time he ran for reelection, I was confused and disappointed that relatively so few Americans shared my enthusiasm for the incumbent and admiration for his inherent decency and quiet strength. A three-way election saw just over 37 percent of Americans vote the way I would have, but the President accepted the result with grace and humility. In a High School classroom, just after finishing a Final exam, I remember a television in a nearby room showing the swearing-in of the new President, somebody I knew could never measure up to George Bush, especially on the matter of character. Nowadays. all sorts of people will say that Bush 41 was probably the most successful one-term President in our history.

Politics became exciting in the next few years for many in the GOP who liked the Bush Family. George W. became Governor of Florida, and on his second try, Jeb was elected Governor of Florida. Their proud parents reveled in their success. As the 2000 cycle began, I was an early supporter of another man named George Bush and never wavered in my support of our 43rd, through political ups and downs, for nearly a decade. Most recently, I was surprised when Jeb Bush attempted to become the third member of his family to win the White House. While I was not very confident in how it would turn out, he was clearly the best candidate in that field to be President. The voters in the Republican Party chose to go in a different direction away from him and away from several others in that field who had much in common with George H.W. Bush, and I feel the Republican Party and the country itself has been worse off because of it.

While political trends and eras come and go though, George H.W. Bush was at the center of America's most successful political dynasty. The son of a United States Senator himself, George Bush succeeded in business, not on his family name, but on his own initiative, and then made his entry intp politics. He did not win every race, but his public service and loyalty to the country brought him to the highest office in the land. He then saw his two oldest sons become Governors of large states, with the eldest being a two-term President, who was lucky enough to have both his parents alive the entire time. Even now, a fourth consecutive generation Bush holds statewide office as George Bush's eldest grandchild, and namesake, George P. Bush was recently reelected to his second term as Texas Land Commissioner. The last public photo of the 41st President was of him casting his vote for his grandson.

Throughout his life, he was taught humility by his mother and the discouragement of bragging. Still though, George Bush proved he could be an aggressive political fighter when it called for it. He had already more than proved his mettle in war and the claims that were made of his being a "wimp" before become President were of course ludicrous.  He fought hard to hold and keep high office, but whether in victory or defeat, always put the well-being of the country first. He also valued friendships his entire life, which led to a very close relationship with Bill Clinton, the man who defeated him in a sometimes ugly campaign, after both men left the White House, and a recent closeness with Barack Obama, who was among his last visitors in Texas. The current President, who has of course said very nice words about the recently departed this past day in both a (ghost) written statement and in public remarks was by most accounts not someone that George H.W. Bush liked very much. Still, he was asked to attend the funeral of his predecessor on behalf of the nation he currently leads. In 2016, George H.W. Bush was among the anti-Trump Republicans who even voted for Hillary Clinton to be President, something that neither I nor his own two sons in the political arena could bring themselves to do. Out of all the votes that Secretary Clinton received in 2016, she should perhaps be most honored by that of George H.W. Bush.

I could seemingly go on for hours lauding the legacy and inspiration of George H.W. Bush. I would also that in anything I write, I could be remotely as eloquent as the words he spoke upon accepting the Republican Presidential nomination in August of 1988 at the New Orleans convention. Peggy Noonan is largely credited wit having drafted the speech, but the words spoken were quintessential Bush and captured his character and worldview. Beyond the well known "Read My Lips" pledge, which would become part of his political undoing, he spoke of a "kinder, gentler, nation" and the uniqueness of American action for goodness through a "thousand points of light." Not long ago, a political who currently holds office scoffed at the now trademark line of sorts, but it is clear what a thousand points of light means and how all of those, and many others, are what has always made America great.

As a very young man, George Bush, who left his High School graduation to volunteer to serve his country in World War II, nearly lost his life in the war. His passing is another reminder that the "Greatest Generation" grows smaller by the day. At the convention speech though, he recalled how when he was a torpedo bomber pilot, he was given "missions" to complete and how he saw his life through public service in the decades afterwards as missions to be completed.

He fought for his country, he served, he built, he led, as his words from the podium resonated and in a rare moment of "bragging", but a necessary one, he made clear that he was "that man" who was needed to sit at the desk as President of the United States. He declared he would work to bring about prosperity, opportunity, and peace throughout America and the world. An underdog at that point in the campaign, he wound up winning big and did his best to live up to the promise and then accepted the results when enough of the same voters chose to go in a different direction.

His retirement was eventful, even outside the political careers of his children, and filled with time with his very large family and some jumps out of airplanes, which were really about exorcising some ghosts from the war in which he lost his two crew mates, as he survived to live a long and prosperous life.

George Bush's final years saw him facing increasing health challenges and the prospect of facing life without his beloved Barbara. The longest married couple in Presidential history were parted earlier this year. While it was said that he still wanted to make it to 100 and beyond, it seemed likely that the couple would not be apart for too long. We can hope that they are reunited (along with daughter Robin), together once again.

As America once again approaches a new decade, we are in need of many more "points of light" who will honor the legacy of GHWB through public service and private decency. Even as we might fight vigorously for our values and against those who threaten them, either foreign or domestic, America could surely stand to be a bit kinder and gentler as well.

I hope that in his final hours, the 41st President of the United States realized that he completed every mission he had been given and that the country he loved and served his entire life will carry on in the same spirit.

Wednesday, November 28, 2018

NFL Week 13

Overall Results: 94-80 (54%)

1. Saints (10-1) at Cowboys (6-5)
2. Ravens (6-5) at Falcons (4-7)
3. Panthers (6-5) at Buccaneers (4-7)
4. Bears (8-3) at Giants (3-8)
5. Bills (4-7) at Dolphins (5-6)
6. Colts (6-5) at Jaguars (3-8)
7. Browns (4-6-1) at Texans (8-3)
8. Broncos (5-6) at Bengals (5-6)
9. Rams (10-1) at Lions (4-7)
10. Cardinals (2-9) at Packers (4-6-1)
11. Chiefs (9-2) at Raiders (2-9)
12. Jets (3-8) at Titans (5-6)
13. 49ers (2-9) at Seahawks (6-5)
14. Vikings (6-4-1) at Patriots (8-3)
15. Chargers (8-3) at Steelers (7-3-1)
16. Redskins (6-5) at Eagles (5-6)

Tuesday, November 27, 2018

NFL Week 12 Results

Week 12

NOT PREDICTIONS

1. Bears (7-3) at Lions (4-6) W 1
2. Redskins (6-4) at Cowboys (5-5) W 2
3. Falcons (4-6) at Saints (9-1) L 1
4. Browns (3-6-1) at Bengals (5-5) L 2
5. 49ers (2-8) at Buccaneers (3-7) L 3
6. Jaguars (3-7) at Bills (3-7) W 3
7. Raiders (2-8) at Ravens (5-5) W 4
8. Seahawks (5-5) at Panthers (6-4) W 5
9. Patriots (7-3) at Jets (3-7) L 4
10. Giants (3-7) at Eagles (4-6) L 5
11. Cardinals (2-8) at Chargers (7-3) W 6
12. Dolphins (5-5) at Colts (5-5) W 7
13. Steelers (7-2-1) at Broncos (4-6) W 8
14. Packers (4-5-1) at Vikings (5-4-1) L 6
15. Titans (5-5) at Texans (7-3) L 7


Week 12 Results: 8-7 (53%)
Overall Results: 94-80 (54%)

Wednesday, November 21, 2018

NFL Week 12 Games

Overall Results: 86-73 (54%)

NOT PREDICTIONS

1. Bears (7-3) at Lions (4-6)
2. Redskins (6-4) at Cowboys (5-5)
3. Falcons (4-6) at Saints (9-1)
4. Browns (3-6-1) at Bengals (5-5)
5. 49ers (2-8) at Buccaneers (3-7)
6. Jaguars (3-7) at Bills (3-7)
7. Raiders (2-8) at Ravens (5-5)
8. Seahawks (5-5) at Panthers (6-4)
9. Patriots (7-3) at Jets (3-7)
10. Giants (3-7) at Eagles (4-6)
11. Cardinals (2-8) at Chargers (7-3)
12. Dolphins (5-5) at Colts (5-5)
13. Steelers (7-2-1) at Broncos (4-6)
14. Packers (4-5-1) at Vikings (5-4-1)
15. Titans (5-5) at Texans (7-3)

Tuesday, November 20, 2018

NFL Week 11 Results

Week 11

NOT PREDICTIONS

1. Packers (4-4-1) at Seahawks (4-5) W 1
2. Bengals (5-4) at Ravens (4-5) L 1
3. Cowboys (4-5) at Falcons (4-5) L 2
4. Buccaneers (3-6) at Giants (2-7) W 2
5. Steelers (6-2-1) at Jaguars (3-6) W 3
6. Texans (6-3) at Redskins (6-3) W 4
7. Titans (5-4) at Colts (4-5) L 3
8. Panthers (6-3) at Lions (3-6) W 5
9. Broncos (3-6) at Chargers (7-2) W 6
10. Raiders (1-8) at Cardinals (2-7) W 7
11. Eagles (4-5) at Saints (8-1) L 4
12. Vikings (5-3-1) at Bears (6-3) W 8
13. Chiefs (9-1) at Rams (9-1) L 5

Week 11 Results: 8-5 (62%)
Overall Results: 86-73 (54%)

Wednesday, November 14, 2018

NFL Week 11 Games

NOT PREDICTIONS

Overall Results: 78-68 (53%)

1. Packers (4-4-1) at Seahawks (4-5)
2. Bengals (5-4) at Ravens (4-5)
3. Cowboys (4-5) at Falcons (4-5)
4. Buccaneers (3-6) at Giants (2-7)
5. Steelers (6-2-1) at Jaguars (3-6)
6. Texans (6-3) at Redskins (6-3)
7. Titans (5-4) at Colts (4-5)
8. Panthers (6-3) at Lions (3-6)
9. Broncos (3-6) at Chargers (7-2)
10. Raiders (1-8) at Cardinals (2-7)
11. Eagles (4-5) at Saints (8-1)
12. Vikings (5-3-1) at Bears (6-3)
13. Chiefs (9-1) at Rams (9-1)

Tuesday, November 13, 2018

NFL Week 10 Results

Week 10

NOT PREDICTIONS

1. Panthers (6-2) at Steelers (5-2-1) W 1
2. Saints (7-1) at Bengals (5-3) L 1
3. Falcons (4-4) at Browns (2-6-1) W 2
4. Lions (3-5) at Bears (5-3) W 3
5. Cardinals (2-6) at Chiefs (8-1) W 4
6. Patriots (7-2) at Titans (4-4) W 5
7. Redskins (5-3) at Buccaneers (3-5) L 2
8. Bills (2-7) at Jets (3-6) W 6
9. Jaguars (3-5) at Colts (3-5) W 7
10. Chargers (6-2) at Raiders (1-7) W 8
11. Seahawks (4-4) at Rams (8-1) L 3
12. Dolphins (5-4) at Packers (3-4-1) L 4
13. Cowboys (3-5) at Eagles (4-4) W 9
14. Giants (1-7) at 49ers (2-7) W 10

Week 10 Results: 10-4 (71%)
Overall Results: 78-68 (53%)

Wednesday, November 07, 2018

NFL Week 10 Games

There will be lots of write about the state of politics, starting up again on Saturdays this coming January...

Sometime before that, I will tally up my prediction score. As of right now, I did freakishly well once again.

The NFL stuff below are:
NOT PREDICTIONS

Overall Results: 68-64 (52%)

1. Panthers (6-2) at Steelers (5-2-1)
2. Saints (7-1) at Bengals (5-3)
3. Falcons (4-4) at Browns (2-6-1)
4. Lions (3-5) at Bears (5-3)
5. Cardinals (2-6) at Chiefs (8-1)
6. Patriots (7-2) at Titans (4-4)
7. Redskins (5-3) at Buccaneers (3-5)
8. Bills (2-7) at Jets (3-6)
9. Jaguars (3-5) at Colts (3-5)
10. Chargers (6-2) at Raiders (1-7)
11. Seahawks (4-4) at Rams (8-1)
12. Dolphins (5-4) at Packers (3-4-1)
13. Cowboys (3-5) at Eagles (4-4)
14. Giants (1-7) at 49ers (2-7)

Tuesday, November 06, 2018

NFL Week 9 Results

Today is the day we see how powerful the Blue Wave is and how tall the Red Wall is.

Week 9

NOT PREDICTIONS

1. Raiders (1-6) at 49ers (1-7) L 1
2. Bears (4-3) at Bills (2-6) W 1
3. Buccaneers (3-4) at Panthers (5-2) L 2
4. Chiefs (7-1) at Browns (2-5-1) W 2
5. Jets (3-5) at Dolphins (4-4) W 3
6. Steelers (4-2-1) at Ravens (4-4) W 4
7. Lions (3-4) at Vikings (4-3-1) L 3
8.  Falcons (3-4) at Redskins (5-2) W 5
9. Texans (5-3) at Broncos (3-5) L 4
10. Chargers (5-2) at Seahawks (4-3) W 6
11 Rams (8-0) at Saints (6-1) W 7
12. Packers (3-3-1) at Patriots (6-2) W 8
13. Titans (3-4) at Cowboys (3-4) W 9

Week 9 Results: 9-4 (69%)
Overall Results: 68-64 (52%)

Monday, November 05, 2018

Election Eve Final Predictions

1 Day Until Election Day

Below are the changes in classification I am making-

Governors:

 All current Governors: 16 D, 1 I, 33 R

Alaska- Tossup (R)- change from Likely R
Connecticut- Leans D - change from Likely D
Nevada- Tossup (D)- change from Tossup (R)
New Hampshire- Leans R- change from Likely R
New York- Likely D- change from Safe D
South Dakota- Tossup (R)- change from Leans R
Vermont- Leans R- change from Likely R
Wisconsin- Tossup (D)- change from Leans D

Predictions:
24 D (7 holdovers, 2 Safe, 6 Likely, 4 Leans, 5 Tossup)
26 R (7 holdovers, 6 Safe, 5 Likely, 3 Leans, 5 Tossup)

Democrat net gain of 8
Republican net loss of 7 

Ten Tossups is truly a lot. The individual races this year are tougher to predict than ever. We simply do not know if there are fundamental problems with polling after a whole lot of wrong conventional wisdom on the Presidential race two years ago.

The main question of the election of course relates to turnout. Will Democrats have a huge turnout simply because this is the midterm of an unpopular Republican President? The reverse was certainly true in 2010 and 2014. The other option is that there is just something about midterms that means Republicans will outvote Democrats again. GOP turnout also seems energized.

The Gubernatorial "map" though is just bad for Republicans and the party simply picked the wrong nominees in a few primaries and that might cost them some of these races as candidates who ran as Trump acolytes in primaries will have had a hard time winning over enough swing voters.

Past cycles-
2006: 35-1 (97%)
2008: 10-1 (91%)
2010: 34-3 (92%)
2012: 9-2 (82%)
2014: 32-4 (89%)
2016: 9-3 (75%)
_____________________________________________________________________________

U.S. Senate

Current U.S. Senate: 49 D, 51 R

Nevada- Tossup (D)- change from Tossup (R)

 Predictions:

47 D (23 holdovers, 15 Safe, 3 Likely, 3 Leans, 3 Tossup)
53 R (42 holdovers, 4 Safe, 1 Likely, 3 Leans, 3 Tossup)

Republican net gain of 2

I am making just one change, and again, I note the even distribution of Tossup races. There are several likely outcomes. The only one that would truly surprise me though is if Democrats win a majority outright. The Democrats could hold almost all their own and pick up two seats to net one. (And there may be some waiting for a Mississippi special election.)

It also would not surprise me if Republicans have an ever better night on the Senate side and pick as many as five seats.  This is due to a brutal map for Democrats in which they are defending seats in "red territory." Another important factor was the absolutely politically devastating way the left tried to defeat the nomination of now Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh and how that energized Republican voters. Complete political malpractice. Since that episode has ended though, I think Trump's focus on divisive issues such as immigration is hurting Republicans more than helping in purple states.


Past cycles-
2006: 31-2 (94%)
2008: 34-1 (97%)
2010: 34-3 (92%)
2012: 28-5 (85%)
2014: 36-0 (100%)
2016: 31-3 (91%)
__________________________________________________________________________

U.S. House

Alaska

 1. Don Young R (Trump 51%) Tossup (R)- change from Leans R


Florida

13. Charlie Crist D (Clinton 49%) Likely D- change from Safe D
27. Open (Ileana Ros-Lehtinen R) (Clinton 58%) Leans D- change from Tossup (R)

Georgia

6. Karen Handel R (Trump 48%) Tossup (R)- change from Leans R

Illinois

6. Peter Roskam R (Clinton 49%) Tossup (D) - change from Tossup (R)
14. Randy Hultgren R (Trump 48%) Tossup (D)- change from Tossup (R)

Iowa

4. Steve King R (Trump 60%) Leans R- change from Likely R


Michigan


8. Mike Bishop R (Trump 50%) Tossup (D)- change from Tossup (R)

Montana

1.  Greg Gianforte R (Trump 56%) Tossup (R)- change from Leans R


Current: 195 D, 240 R
Predicted:
225 D (158 Safe, 33 Likely, 15 Leans, 19 Tossup)
210 R (97 Safe, 70 Likely, 26 Leans, 17 Tossup)

Democrat net gain of 30

The last two cycles, I was incredibly accurate in predicting House races, only missing single digit totals both times. This time, I expect to incur far more "losses" and there are many more Tossups than usual.

Democrats need to flip 23 seats to win control. It is not completely impossible that they fail (which would be complete and utter disaster for them), but that is highly, highly unlikely. 

My hunch, and that is basically all it is, is that Democrats are in better shape in the House than they were two weeks ago. The same factors which may have helped Republicans in the Senate map are perhaps helping Democrats in House races. I sense that while I have looked at this race by race and come up with 30, the actual Democrat pickup total may be closer to 40. I particularly hope to be wrong on the two Chicagoland races I have just changed. Perhaps, I am pre-determined to be overly pessimistic living in that media market.

Past cycles:
2006: 416-19 (96%)
2008: 418-17 (96%)
2010: 414-21 (95%)
2012: 415-20 (95%)
2014: 426-9 (98%)
2016: 429-6 (99%)
 _______________________________________________________________________________

Past Cycles Grand Total:
2006: 482-22 (96%)
2008: 462-19 (96%)
2010: 482-27 (95%)
2012: 452-27 (94%)
2014: 494-13 (97%)
2016: 469-12 (98%)



In conclusion, voting is important, even if you are going to vote with zero enthusiasm as I will be doing tomorrow.

There are a plethora of races for federal, state, and local government on the ballot this year, for executive, legislative, and judicial offices.

For years, I was a proud Republican partisan who (minus some absolute extreme examples) always wanted the Republican to win. Under the Trump era, I cannot "root" for that, nor can I root for an opposition party I feel no connection with, such as today's Democrats.

I hope that the best candidate wins each race, based upon a combination of ideology, character, and competence. For me, that is still strongly likely to be Republicans, and on my ballot I will be voting thus tomorrow. However, there are definitely some Republicans around the country I hope lose tomorrow. May the best candidate win, whether they be Democrat, Republican, or Independent.

The Kavanaugh saga has reminded me that the Senate is very important, far more than the House this cycle, and thus, a result that has Republicans keeping the Senate (and thus advancing more conservative judges, which is basically the only enduring positive I can  see happening from the Trump years) would be a good thing. Race by race, I would want Republicans to keep the House as well, but I am pretty agnostic about the overall balance of power.

Needless to say, I have been very turned off by Trump being so involved in the final days of the midterm campaign and pushing his agenda of dishonesty and divisiveness. I try to look at the big picture though, and realize that one day DJT will be off the scene, and those who pledge loyalty to him now may be singing a completely different tune. 

Whomever is the next Speaker and whatever they propose is unlikely to get through a GOP Senate and can also of course be vetoed by Trump, provided he does not return himself to his Democrat roots (which would be welcomed in a sense by me in hoping to get the party back.)

The only thing that really may happen with a Democrat House is more investigation of the Trump Administration. If they overreach, they will pay the price at the next election (and yes, they will probably vote to impeach him, only to see it backfire on them, minus public support). If they do the oversight honestly, they may do a service to the country. If Trump and his ilk have done nothing wrong, there should not be anything to be afraid of. I can understand why they may be afraid though. At the very minimum, we can assure that Robert Mueller is able to conclude his investigation and provide the relevant information. Ultimately, it will be up to the American people to determine the future of the Trump Presidency, whether that comes in the 2020 election or before.

Come late December or early January, as always, I will itemize and explain each and every incorrect prediction.

Sunday, November 04, 2018

U.S. House Predictions- Washington- Wyoming

2 Days Until Election Day

Washington

1. Suzan DelBene D (Clinton 52%) Safe D
2. Rick Larsen D (Clinton 55%) Safe D
3. Jaime Herrera Buetler R (Trump 48%) Leans R
4. Dan Newhouse R (Trump 56%)  Safe R
5. Cathy McMorris Rodgers R (Trump 50%)  Leans R
6. Derek Kilmer D (Clinton 50%) Safe D
7. Pramila Jayapal D (Clinton 80%) Safe D
8. Open (Dave Reichert R) (Clinton 46%) Tossup (R)
9. Adam Smith D (Clinton 69%) Safe D/Safe Adam Smith
10. Denny Heck D (Clinton 50%) Safe D

WA current: 6 D, 4 R
WA predicted: 6 D, 4 R


Current total: 192 D, 231 R
Predicted:
218 D (157 Safe, 31 Leans, 14 Tossup 16 Tossup)
205 R (95 Safe, 66 Likely, 26 Leans, 18 Tossup)
 ____________________________________________________________________________

West Virginia

1. David McKinley R (Trump 68%) Safe R
2. Alex Mooney R (Trump 66%) Likely R
3. Vacant (Evan Jenkins R) (Trump 73%) Leans R

WV current: 0 D, 3 R
WV predicted: 0 D, 3 R

Current: 192 D, 234 R
Predicted:
218 D (157 Safe, 31 Likely, 14 Leans, 16 Tossup)
208 R (96 Safe, 67 Likely, 27 Leans, 18 Tossup)

___________________________________________________________________________

Wisconsin

1. Open (Paul Ryan R) (Trump 52%) Leans R

2. Mark Pocan D (Clinton 65%) Safe D
3. Ron Kind D (Trump 49%) Likely D
4. Gwen Moore D (Clinton 73%) Safe D
5. Jim Sensenbrenner R (Trump 57%) Likely R
6. Glenn Grothman R (Trump 55%) Likely R
7. Sean Duffy R (Trump 57%) Likely R
8. Mike Gallagher R (Trump 56%) Likely R

WI current: 3 D, 5 R
WI predicted: 3 D, 5 R

Current: 195 D, 239 R
Predicted:
221 D (159 Safe, 32 Likely, 14 Leans, 16 Tossup)
213 R (96 Safe, 71 Likely, 28 Leans, 18 Tossup)
________________________________________________________________________

Wyoming

1. Liz Cheney R (Trump 68%) Safe R

WY current: 0 D, 1 R
WY predicted: 0 D 1 R

Current: 195 D, 240 R
Predicted:
221 D (159 Safe, 32 Likely, 14 Leans, 16 Tossup)
214 R (97 Safe, 71 Likely, 28 Leans, 18 Tossup)

Democrat net gain of 26

Saturday, November 03, 2018

U.S. House Predictions- Utah-Virginia

3 Days Until Election Day

Utah

1. Rob Bishop R (Trump 49%) Safe R
2. Chris Stewart R (Trump 46%) Likely R
3. John Curtis R (Trump 47%) Safe R
4. Mia Love R (Trump 39%) Tossup (R)

UT current: 0 D, 4 R
UT predicted: 0 D, 4 R

Current total: 181 D, 220 R
Predicted:
205 D (146 Safe, 31 Likely, 13 Leans, 15 Tossup)
196 R (94 Safe, 63 Likely, 24 Leans, 15 Tossup)
________________________________________________________________________________

Vermont

1. Peter Welch D (Clinton 57%) Safe D

VT current: 1 D, 0 R
VT predicted: 1 D, 0 R

Current total: 182 D, 220 R
Predicted:
206 D (147 Safe, 31 Likely, 13 Leans, 15 Tossup)
196 R (94 Safe, 63 Likely, 24 Leans, 15 Tossup)
______________________________________________________________________________

Virginia

1. Rob Wittman R (Trump 53%) Likely R
2. Scott Taylor R (Trump 48%) Tossup (R)
3. Bobby Scott D (Clinton 63%) Safe D
4. Donald McEachin D (Clinton 58%) Safe D
5. Open (Tom Garrett R) (Trump 53%) Tossup (R)
6. Open (Bob Goodlatte R) (Trump 59%) Likely R
7. Dave Brat R (Trump 50%) Tossup (D)
8. Don Beyer D (Clinton 72%) Safe D
9. Morgan Griffith R (Trump 68%) Likely R
10. Barbara Comstock R (Clinton 52%) Leans D
11. Gerry Connolly D (Clinton 66%) Safe D

VA current: 4 D, 7 R
VA predicted: 6 D, 5 R

Current total: 186 D, 227 R
Predicted:
212 D (151 Safe, 31 Likely, 14 Leans, 16 Tossup)
201 R (94 Safe, 66 Likely, 24 Leans, 17 Tossup)

Friday, November 02, 2018

U.S. House Predictions- Texas

4 Days Until Election Day

Texas

1. Louie Gomhert R (Trump 72%) Safe R
2. Open (Ted Poe R) (Trump 52%) Likely R
3. Open (Sam Johnson R) (Trump 54%) Likely R
4. John Ratcliffe R (Trump 75%) Safe R
5. Open (Jeb Hensarling R) (Trump 62%) Safe R
6. Open (Joe Barton R) (Trump 54%) Likely R
7. John Culberson R (Clinton 48%) Tossup (D)
8. Kevin Brady R (Trump 72%) Safe R
9. Al Green D (Clinton 79%) Safe D
10. Michael McCaul R (Trump 52%) Likely R
11. Mike Conaway R (Trump 78%) Safe R
12. Kay Granger R (Trump 62%)  Safe R
13. Mac Thornberry R (Trump 80%) Safe R
14. Randy Weber R (Trump 58%) Safe R
15. Vicente Gonzalez D (Clinton 57%) Safe D
16. Open (Beto O'Rourke D) (Clinton 68%) Safe D
17. Bill Flores R (Trump 56%) Likely R
18. Sheila Jackson Lee D (Clinton 76%) Safe D
19. Jodey Arrington R (Trump 72%) Safe R
20. Joaquin Castro D (Clinton 61%) Safe D
21. Open (Lamar Smith R) (Trump 52%) Leans R
22. Pete Olson R (Trump 52%) Likely R
23. Will Hurd R (Clinton 50%) Leans R
24. Kenny Marchant R (Trump 50%) Likely R
25. Roger Williams R (Trump 55%) Likely R
26. Michael Burgess R (Trump 60%) Likely R
27. Michael Cloud R (Trump 60%) Likely R
28. Henry Cuellar D (Clinton 58%) Safe D
29. Open (Gene Green D) (Clinton 71%) Safe D
30. Eddie Bernice Johnson D (Clinton 79%) Safe D
31. John Carter R (Trump 53%) Leans R
32. Pete Sessions R (Clinton 48%) Tossup (R)
33. Marc Veasey D (Clinton 73%) Safe D
34. Filemon Vela D (Clinton 59%) Safe D
35. Lloyd Doggett D (Clinton 64%) Safe D
36. Brian Babin R (Trump 72%) Safe R

TX current: 11 D, 25 R
TX predicted: 12 D, 24 R

Current total: 181 D, 216 R
Predicted:
205 D (146 Safe, 31 Likely, 13 Leans, 15 Tossup)
192 R (92 Safe, 62 Likely, 24 Leans, 14 Tossup)

Thursday, November 01, 2018

U.S. House Predictions- Rhode Island- Tennessee

5 Days Until Election Day

Rhode Island

1. David Cicilline D (Clinton 59%) Safe D
2. Jim Langevin D (Clinton 50%) Safe D

RI current: 2 D, 0 R
RI predicted: 2 D, 0 R

Current total: 167 D, 177 R
Predicted:
190 D (132 Safe, 31 Likely, 13 Leans, 14 Tossup)
154 R (76 Safe, 45 Likely, 20 Leans, 13 Tossup)
_____________________________________________________________________________

South Carolina

1. Open (Mark Sanford R) (Trump 54%) Leans R
2. Joe Wilson R (Trump 57%) Likely R
3. Jeff Duncan R (Trump 67%) Safe R
4. Open (Trey Gowdy R) (Trump 60%) Likely R
5. Ralph Norman R (Trump 57%) Likely R
6. Jim Clyburn D (Clinton 67%) Safe D
7. Tom Rice R (Trump 58%) Likely R

SC current: 1 D, 6 R
SC predicted: 1 D, 6 R

Current total: 168 D, 183 R
Predicted:
191 D (133 Safe, 31 Likely, 13 Leans, 14 Tossup)
160 R (77 Safe, 49 Likely, 21 Leans, 13 Tossup)
_____________________________________________________________________

South Dakota

1. Open (Kristi Noem R) (Trump 62%) Likely R

SC current: 0 D, 1 R
SD predicted: 0 D, 1 R

Current total: 168 D, 184 R
Predicted:
191 D (133 Safe, 31 Likely, 13 Leans, 14 Tossup)
161 R (77 Safe, 50 Likely, 21 Leans, 13 Tossup)
______________________________________________________________________

 Tennessee

1. Phil Roe R (Trump 77%) Safe R
2. Open (Jimmy Duncan Jr. R) (Trump 65%) Safe R
3. Chuck Fleischmann R (Trump 65%) Safe R
4. Scott DesJarlais R (Trump 68%)  Likely R
5. Jim Cooper D (Clinton 56%) Safe D
6. Open (Diane Black R) (Trump 72%) Safe R
7. Open (Marsha Blackburn R) (Trump 67%) Likely R
8. David Kustoff R (Trump 66%) Safe R
9. Steve Cohen D (Clinton 78%) Safe D

TN current: 2 D, 7 R
TN predicted: 2 D, 7 R

Current total: 170 D, 191 R
Predicted:
193 D (135 Safe, 31 Likely, 13 Leans, 14 Tossup)
168 R (82 Safe, 52 Likely, 21 Leans, 13 Tossup)

Wednesday, October 31, 2018

NFL Week 8 Results and Week 9 Games

6 Days Until Election Day

Week 8

NOT PREDICTIONS

1. Dolphins (4-3) at Texans (4-3) W 1
2. Eagles (3-4) vs. Jaguars (3-4) in London L 1
3. Broncos (3-4) at Chiefs (6-1) W 2
4. Browns (2-4-1) at Steelers (3-2-1) W 3
5. Redskins (4-2) at Giants (1-6) L 2
6. Seahawks (3-3) at Lions (3-3) W 4
7. Buccaneers (3-3) at Bengals (4-3) W 5
8. Jets (3-4) at Bears (3-3) W 6
9. Ravens (4-3) at Panthers (4-2) L 3
10. Colts (2-5) at Raiders (1-5) W 7
11. 49ers (1-6) at Cardinals (1-6) W 8
12. Packers (3-2-1) at Rams (7-0) L 4
13. Saints (5-1) at Vikings (4-2-1) L 5
14. Patriots (5-2) at Bills (2-5) L 6

Week 8 Results: 8-6 (57%)
Overall Results: 59-60 (50%)
_____________________________________________________________________

Week 9

NOT PREDICTIONS

1. Raiders (1-6) at 49ers (1-7)
2. Bears (4-3) at Bills (2-6)
3. Buccaneers (3-4) at Panthers (5-2)
4. Chiefs (7-1) at Browns (2-5-1)
5. Jets (3-5) at Dolphins (4-4)
6. Steelers (4-2-1) at Ravens (4-4)
7. Lions (3-4) at Vikings (4-3-1)
8.  Falcons (3-4) at Redskins (5-2)
9. Texans (5-3) at Broncos (3-5)
10. Chargers (5-2) at Seahawks (4-3)
11 Rams (8-0) at Saints (6-1)
12. Packers (3-3-1) at Patriots (6-2)
13. Titans (3-4) at Cowboys (3-4)

Tuesday, October 30, 2018

U.S. House Predictions- Oklahoma- Pennsylvania

7 Days Until Election Day

Oklahoma

1. Vacant (Jim Bridenstine R) (Trump 61%) Safe R
2. Markwayne Mullin R (Trump 73%) Safe R
3. Frank Lucas R (Trump 74%) Safe R
4. Tom Cole R (Trump 66%) Safe R
5. Steve Russell R (Trump 53%) Likely R

OK current: 0 D, 5 R
OK predicted: 0 D, 5 R

Current total: 155 D, 164 R
Predicted:
175 D (125 Safe, 24 Likely, 12 Leans, 14 Tossup)
144 R (72 Safe, 42 Likely, 18 Leans, 12 Tossup)
_________________________________________________________________________

Oregon

1. Suzanne Bonamici D (Clinton 55%) Safe D
2. Greg Walden R (Trump 55%) Likely R
3. Earl Blumenauer D (Clinton 68%) Safe D
4. Peter DeFazio D (Clinton 45%) Likely D
5. Kurt Schrader D (Clinton 46%) Likely D


OR current: 4 D, 1 R
OR predicted: 4 D, 1 R


Current total: 159 D, 165 R
Predicted:
179 D (127 Safe, 26 Likely, 12 Leans, 14 Tossup)
145 R (72 Safe, 43 Likely, 18 Leans, 12 Tossup)
____________________________________________________________________________

Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania is the one state to see different district lines than those competed under in the last election. These districts have been changed significantly. I will try to describe the districts as relative to what they current seats are as best as possible. The sources on the 2016 Presidential race come from online.

1. Brian Fitzpatrick R (Clinton 49%) Tossup (R)
2. Brendan Boyle D (currently held by retiring Bob Brady D) (Clinton 73%) Safe D
3. Dwight Evans D (Clinton 91%) Safe D
4. Open (Brendan Boyle D is running in District 2) (Clinton 58%) Likely D
5. Vacant (Pat Meehan R) (Clinton 63%) Likely D (regular and special)
6. Open (Ryan Costello R) (Clinton 53%) Likely D
7. Vacant (Charlie Dent R) (Clinton 49%) Leans D (regular and special)
8. Matt Cartwright D (Trump 53%) Likely D
9. Open (Lou Barletta R) (Trump 65%) Safe R
10. Scott Perry R (Trump 52%) Leans R
11. Lloyd Smucker R (Trump 61%) Likely R
12. Tom Marino R (Trump 66%) Safe R
13. Open (Bill Shuster R) (Trump 71%) Safe R
14. Open (Connor Lamb D is running in District 17) (Trump 63%) Likely R
15. Glenn Thompson R (Trump 70%) Safe R
16. Mike Kelly R (Trump 58%) Leans R
17. Keith Rothfus R (being challenged by Connor Lamb D) (Trump 49%) Likely D
18. Mike Doyle D (Clinton 62%) Safe D

PA current: 6 D, 12 R
PA predicted: 9 D, 9 R

Current total: 165 D, 177 R
Predicted:
188 D (130 Safe, 31 Likely, 13 Leans, 14 Tossup)
154 R (76 Safe, 45 Likely, 20 Leans, 13 Tossup)

Monday, October 29, 2018

U.S. House Predictions- North Carolina- Ohio

8 Days Until Election Day

North Carolina

1. G.K. Butterfield D (Clinton 67%) Safe D
2. George Holding R (Trump 53%) Leans R
3. Walter Jones Jr. R (Trump 60%) Safe R
4. David Price D (Clinton 67%) Safe D
5. Virginia Foxx R (Trump 57%) Likely R
6. Mark Walker R (Trump 56%) Likely R
7. David Rouzer R (Trump 57%) Likely R
8. Richard Hudson R (Trump 56%) Likely R
9. Open (Robert Pittenger R) (Trump 54%) Tossup (D)
10. Patrick McHenry R (Trump 60%) Likely R
11. Mark Meadows R (Trump 62%) Likely R
12. Alma Adams D (Clinton 67%) Safe D
13. Ted Budd R (Trump 53%) Leans R

NC current: 3 D, 10 R
NC predicted: 4 D, 9 R

Current total: 151 D, 146 R
Predicted:
171 D (122 Safe, 23 Likely, 12 Leans, 14 Tossup)
126 R (65 Safe, 32 Likely, 17 Leans, 12 Tossup)
_______________________________________________________________________________

North Dakota

1. Open (Kevin Cramer R) (Trump 63%) Likely R

ND current: 0 D, 1 R
ND predicted: 0 D, 1 R

Current total: 151 D, 147 R
Predicted:
171 D (122 Safe, 23 Likely, 12 Leans, 14 Tossup)
127 R (65 Safe, 33 Likely, 17 Leans, 12 Tossup)
________________________________________________________________________________

Ohio


1. Steve Chabot R (Trump 51%) Likely R
2. Brad Wenstrup R (Trump 55%) Likely R
3. Joyce Beatty D (Clinton 66%) Safe D
4. Jim Jordan R (Trump 64%) Likely R
5. Bob Latta R (Trump 59%) Safe R
6. Bill Johnson R (Trump 69%) Safe R
7. Bob Gibbs R (Trump 62%) Likely R
8. Warren Davidson R (Trump 65%) Safe R
9. Marcy Kaptur D (Clinton 58%) Safe D
10. Mike Turner R (Trump 51%) Likely R
11. Marcia Fudge D (Clinton 80%) Safe D
12. Troy Balderson R (Trump 52%) Leans R
13. Tim Ryan D (Clinton 51%) Likely D
14. Dave Joyce R (Trump 53%) Likely R
15. Steve Stivers R (Trump 55%) Likely R
16. Open (Jim Renacci R) (Trump 56%) Likely R

OH current: 4 D, 12 R
OH predicted: 4 D, 12 R

Current total: 155 D, 159 R
Predicted:
175 D (125 Safe, 24 Likely, 12 Leans, 14 Tossup)
139 R (68 Safe, 41 Likely, 18 Leans, 12 Tossup)

Sunday, October 28, 2018

U.S. House Predictions- New Jersey- New York

9 Days Until Election Day

New Jersey

1. Donald Norcross D (Clinton 60%) Safe D
2. Open (Frank LoBiondo R) (Trump 50%) Likely D
3. Tom MacArthur R (Trump 51%) Tossup (R)
4. Chris Smith R (Trump 55%) Likely R
5. Josh Gottheimer D (Trump 48%) Likely D
6. Frank Pallone D (Clinton 56%) Safe D
7. Leonard Lance R (Clinton 48%) Tossup (D)
8. Albio Sires D (Clinton 75%) Safe D
9. Bill Pascrell D (Clinton 64%) Safe D
10. Donald Payne Jr. D (Clinton 85%) Safe D
11. Open (Rodney Frelinghuysen R) (Trump 48%) Leans D
12. Bonnie Watson-Coleman D (Clinton 65%) Safe D

NJ current: 7 D, 5 R
NJ predicted: 10 D, 2 R

Current total: 128 D, 126 R
Predicted:
145 D (102 Safe, 20 Likely, 12 Leans, 11 Tossup)
109 R (64 Safe, 22 Likely, 13 Leans, 10 Tossup)
__________________________________________________________________________

New Mexico

1. Open (Michelle Lujan Grisham D) (Clinton 52%) Likely D
2. Open (Steve Pearce R) (Trump 50%) Tossup (D)
3. Ben Ray Lujan D (Clinton 52%) Safe D

NM current: 2 D, 1 R
NM predicted: 3 D, 0 R

Current total: 130 D, 127 R
Predicted:
148 D (103 Safe, 21 Likely, 12 Leans, 12 Tossup)
109 R (64 Safe, 22 Likely, 13 Leans, 10 Tossup)
_________________________________________________________________________

New York

1. Lee Zeldin R (Trump 54%) Leans R
2. Pete King R (Trump 53%) Likely R
3. Tom Suozzi D (Clinton 51%) Likely D
4. Kathleen Rice D (Clinton 53%) Safe D
5. Gregory Meeks D (Clinton 85%) Safe D
6. Grace Meng D (Clinton 65%) Safe D
7. Nydia Velazquez D (Clinton 86%) Safe D
8. Hakeem Jeffries D (Clinton 84%) Safe D
9. Yvette Clark D (Clinton 83%) Safe D
10. Jerrold Nadler D (Clinton 78%) Safe D
11. Dan Donovan R (Trump 53%) Leans R
12. Carolyn Maloney D (Clinton 82%) Safe D
13. Adriano Espaillat D (Clinton 92%) Safe D
14. Open (Joe Crowley D- name remains on ballot as Working Families Party nominee but not campaigning) (Clinton 77%) Safe D
15. Jose Serrano D (Clinton 94%) Safe D
16. Eliot Engel D (Clinton 75%) Safe D
17. Nita Lowey D (Clinton 58%) Safe D
18. Sean Patrick Maloney D (Trump 49%) Likely D
19. John Faso R (Trump 50%) Tossup (R)
20. Paul Tonko D (Clinton 53%) Safe D
21. Elise Stefanik R (Trump 53%) Likely R
22. Claudia Tenney R (Trump 54%) Tossup (D)
23. Tom Reed R (Trump 54%) Likely R
24. John Katko R (Clinton 49%) Likely R
25. Vacant (Louise Slaughter D) (Clinton 55%) Safe D (regular and special)
26. Brian Higgins D (Clinton 58%) Safe D
27. Chris Collins R (Trump 59%) Tossup (R)

NY current: 18 D, 9 R
NY predicted: 19 D, 8 R

Current total: 148 D, 136 R
Predicted:
167 D (119 Safe, 23 Likely, 12 Leans, 13 Tossup)
117 R (64 Safe, 26 Likely, 15 Leans, 12 Tossup)

Saturday, October 27, 2018

U.S. House Predictions- Missouri- New Hampshire

10 Days Until Election Day

Missouri

1. Lacy Clay D (Clinton 77%) Safe D
2. Ann Wagner R (Trump 52%) Lean R
3. Blaine Luetkemeyer R (Trump 67%) Safe R
4. Vicky Hartzler R (Trump 65%) Safe R
5. Emanuel Cleaver D (Clinton 55%) Safe D
6. Sam Graves R (Trump 64%) Safe R
7. Billy Long R (Trump 70%) Safe R
8. Jason Smith R (Trump 75%) Safe R

MO current: 2 D, 6 R
MO predicted: 2 D, 6 R

Current total: 116 D, 116 R
Predicted:
130 D (95 Safe, 17 Likely, 10 Leans, 8 Tossup)
102 R (62 Safe, 19 Likely, 12 Leans, 9 Tossup)
__________________________________________________________________

Montana

1. Greg Gianforte R (Trump 56%) Leans R

MT current: 0 D, 1 R
MT predicted: 0 D, 1 R

Current total: 116 D, 117 R
Predicted:
130 D (95 Safe, 17 Likely, 10 Leans, 8 Tossup)
103 R (62 Safe, 19 Likely, 13 Leans, 9 Tossup)
____________________________________________________________________________

Nebraska

1. Jeff Fortenberry R (Trump 56%) Safe R
2. Don Bacon R (Trump 47%) Likely R
3. Adrian Smith R (Trump 74%) Safe R

NE current: 0 D, 3 R
NE predicted: 0 D, 3 R

Current total: 116 D, 120 R
Predicted:
130 D (95 Safe, 17 Likely, 10 Leans, 8 Tossup)
106 R (64 Safe, 20 Likely, 13 Leans, 9 Tossup)
___________________________________________________________________________

Nevada

1. Dina Titus D (Clinton 62%) Safe D
2. Mark Amodei R (Trump 52%) Likely R
3. Open (Jacky Rosen D) (Trump 48%) Tossup (D)
4. Open (Ruben Kihuen D) (Clinton 50%) Tossup (D)

NV current: 3 D,  1 R
NV predicted: 3 D, 1 R

Current total: 119 D, 121 R
Predicted:
133 D (96 Safe, 17 Likely, 10 Leans, 10 Tossup)
107 R (64 Safe, 21 Likely, 13 Leans, 9 Tossup)
________________________________________________________________________

New Hampshire

1. Open (Carol Shea-Porter D) (Trump 48%) Leans D
2. Annie Kuster D (Clinton 48%) Likely D

NH current: 2 D, 0 R
NH predicted: 2 D, 0 R

Current total: 121 D, 121 R
Predicted:
135 D (96 Safe, 18 Likely, 11 Leans, 10 Tossup)
107 R (64 Safe, 21 Likely, 13 Leans, 9 Tossup)

Friday, October 26, 2018

U.S. House Predictions- Maryland- Mississippi

11 Days Until Election Day

Maryland

1.  Andy Harris R (Trump 61%) Likely R
2.   Dutch Ruppersberger D (Clinton 59%) Safe D
3.  John Sarbanes D (Clinton 62%) Safe D
4.  Anthony Brown D (Clinton 77%) Safe D
5.  Steny Hoyer D (Clinton 63%) Safe D
6.  Open (John Delaney D) (Clinton 55%) Likely D
7.  Elijah Cummings D (Clinton 74%) Safe D
8.  Jamie Raskin D (Clinton 63%) Safe D

MD current: 7 D, 1 R
MD predicted: 7 D, 1 R

Current total: 94 D, 95 R
Predicted:
106 D (77 Safe, 16 Likely, 6 Leans, 7 Tossup)
 83 R  (51 Safe, 16 Likely, 8 Leans, 8 Tossup)
______________________________________________________________________

Massachusetts

1.  Richard Neal D (Clinton 56%) Safe D
2.  Jim McGovern D (Clinton 55%) Safe D
3.  Open (Niki Tsongas D) (Clinton 57%) Safe D
4.  Joe Kennedy III D (Clinton 58%) Safe D
5.  Katherine Clark D (Clinton 68% ) Safe D
6.  Seth Moulton D (Clinton 55%) Safe D
7.  Open (Mike Capuano D) (Clinton 83%) Safe D
8.  Stephen Lynch D (Clinton 60%) Safe D
9.  Bill Keating D (Clinton 52%) Likely D

MA current: 9 D, 0 R
MA predicted: 9 D, 0 R

Current total: 103 D, 95 R
Predicted:
115 D (85 Safe, 17 Likely, 6 Leans, 7 Tossup)
  83 R (51 Safe, 16 Likely, 8 Leans, 8 Tossup)
________________________________________________________________________

Michigan

1.  Jack Bergman R (Trump 58%) Likely R
2.  Bill Huizenga R (Trump 55%) Safe R
3.  Justin Amash R (Trump 51%) Likely R
4.  John Moolenaar R (Trump 59%) Safe R
5.  Dan Kildee D (Clinton 49%) Safe D
6.  Fred Upton R (Trump 51%) Leans R
7.  Tim Walberg R (Trump 55%) Leans R
8.  Mike Bishop R (Trump 50%) Tossup (R)
9.  Open (Sander Levin D) (Clinton 51%) Safe D
10. Paul Mitchell R (Trump 64%) Safe R
11. Open (Dave Trott R) (Trump 49%) Leans D
12. Debbie Dingell D (Clinton 60%) Safe D
13. Vacant (John Conyers D) (Clinton 78%) Safe D- Regular & Special
14.  Brenda Lawrence D (Clinton 79%) Safe D

MI current: 5 D, 9 R
MI support: 6 D, 8 R

Current total: 108 D, 104 R
Predicted:
121 D (90 Safe, 17 Likely, 7 Leans, 7 Tossup)
  91 R (54 Safe, 18 Likely, 10 Leans, 9 Tossup)
_________________________________________________________________________

 Minnesota

1.  Open (Tim Walz D) (Trump 53%) Tossup (D)
2.  Jason Lewis R (Trump 46%) Leans D
3.  Erik Paulsen R (Clinton 50%) Leans D
4.  Betty McCollum D (Clinton 61%) Safe D
5.  Open (Keith Ellison D) (Clinton 73%) Safe D
6.  Tom Emmer R (Trump 59%) Safe R
7.  Collin Peterson D (Trump 61%) Leans D
8.  Open (Rick Nolan D) (Trump 54%) Leans R

MN current: 5 D, 3 R
MN predicted: 6 D, 2 R

Current total: 113 D, 107 R
Predicted:
127 D (92 Safe, 17 Likely, 10 Leans, 8 Tossup)
  93 R (55 Safe, 18 Likely, 11 Leans, 9 Tossup)
____________________________________________________________________________

 Mississippi

1.  Trent Kelly R (Trump 65%) Safe R
2.  Bennie Thompson D (Clinton 64%) Safe D
3.  Open (Gregg Harper R) (Trump 61%) Safe R
4.  Steven Palazzo R (Trump 69%) Likely R

MS current: 1 D, 3 R
MS predicted: 1 D, 3 R

Current total: 114 D, 110 R
Predicted:
128 D (93 Safe, 17 Likely, 10 Leans, 8 Tossup)
  96 R (57 Safe, 19 Likely, 11 Leans, 9 Tossup)

Thursday, October 25, 2018

U.S. House Predictions- Kansas- Maine

12 Days Until Election Day

Kansas

1. Roger Marshall R (Trump 69%) Safe R
2. Open (Lynn Jenkins R) (Trump 56%) Tossup (D)
3. Kevin Yoder R (Clinton 47%) Leans D
4. Ron Estes R (Trump 60%) Likely R

KS current: 0 D, 4 R
KS predicted: 2 D, 2 R

Current total: 84 D, 83 R
Predicted:
95 D (70 Safe, 13 Likely, 6 Leans, 6 Tossup)
72 R (42 Safe, 15 Likely, 8 Leans, 7 Tossup)
__________________________________________________________________________________

Kentucky

1.  James Comer R (Trump 72%) Safe R
2.  Brett Guthrie R (Trump 68%) Safe R
3.  John Yarmuth D (Clinton 55%) Likely D
4.  Thomas Massie R (Trump 65%) Safe R
5.  Hal Rogers R (Trump 80%) Safe R
6.  Andy Barr R  (Trump 55%) Tossup (R)

KY current: 1 D, 5 R
KY predicted: 1 D, 5 R

Current total: 85 D, 88 R
Predicted:  
96 D (70 Safe, 14 Likely, 6 Leans, 6 Tossup)
77 R (46 Safe, 15 Likely, 8 Leans, 8 Tossup)
___________________________________________________________________________

Louisiana

1.  Steve Scalise R (Trump 69%) Safe R
2.  Cedric Richmond D (Clinton 75%) Safe D
3.  Clay Higgins R (Trump 67%) Safe R/Likely Higgins
4.  Mike Johnson R (Trump 61%) Safe R
5.  Ralph Abraham R (Trump 64%) Safe R
6.  Garrett Graves R (Trump 65%) Safe R

LA current: 1 D, 5 R
LA predicted: 1 D, 5 R

Current total: 86 D, 93 R
Predicted:
97 D (71 Safe, 14 Likely, 6 Leans, 6 Tossup)
82 R (51 Safe, 15 Likely, 8 Leans, 8 Tossup)
_______________________________________________________________________

Maine

1.  Chellie Pingree D (Clinton 54%) Likely D
2.  Bruce Poliquin R  (Trump 51%) Tossup (D)

ME current: 1 D, 1 R
ME predicted: 2 D, 0 R

Current total: 87 D, 94 R
Predicted: 
99 D (71 Safe, 15 Likely, 6 Leans, 7 Tossup)
82 R (51 Safe, 15 Likely, 8 Leans, 8 Tossup)
 

Wednesday, October 24, 2018

NFL Week 7 Results and Week 8 Games

13 Days Until Election Day


Week 7

NOT PREDICTIONS

1. Broncos (2-4) at Cardinals (1-5) W 1
2. Titans (3-3) vs Chargers (4-2) in London L 1
3. Texans (3-3) at Jaguars (3-3) W 2
4. Panthers (3-2) at Eagles (3-3) L 2
5. Vikings (3-2-1) at Jets (3-3) L 3
6. Patriots (4-2) at Bears (3-2) L 4
7. Bills (2-4) at Colts (1-5) L 5
8. Browns (2-3-1) at Buccaneers (2-3) L 6
9. Lions (2-3) at Dolphins (4-2) L 7
10. Saints (4-1) at Ravens (4-2)  L 8
11. Cowboys (3-3) at Redskins (3-2) L 9
12. Rams (6-0) at 49ers (1-5) L 10
13. Bengals (4-2) at Chiefs (5-1) W 3
14. Giants (1-5) at Falcons (2-4) L 11

Week 7 Results: 3-11 (21%)
Overall Results: 51-54 (49%)
___________________________________________________________________________

Week 8

NOT PREDICTIONS

1. Dolphins (4-3) at Texans (4-3)
2. Eagles (3-4) vs. Jaguars (3-4) in London
3. Broncos (3-4) at Chiefs (6-1)
4. Browns (2-4-1) at Steelers (3-2-1)
5. Redskins (4-2) at Giants (1-6)
6. Seahawks (3-3) at Lions (3-3)
7. Buccaneers (3-3) at Bengals (4-3)
8. Jets (3-4) at Bears (3-3)
9. Ravens (4-3) at Panthers (4-2)
10. Colts (2-5) at Raiders (1-5)
11. 49ers (1-6) at Cardinals (1-6)
12. Packers (3-2-1) at Rams (7-0)
13. Saints (5-1) at Vikings (4-2-1)
14. Patriots (5-2) at Bills (2-5)

Tuesday, October 23, 2018

U.S. House Predictions- Illinois-Iowa

14 Days Until Election Day

Illinois

1. Bobby Rush D (Clinton 75%) Safe D
2. Robin Kelly D (Clinton 77%) Safe D
3. Dan Lipinksi D (Clinton 55%) Safe D
4. Open (Luis Gutierrez D) (Clinton 81%) Safe D
5. Mike Quigley D (Clinton 70%) Safe D
6. Peter Roskam R (Clinton 49%) Tossup (R)
7. Danny Davis D (Clinton 87%) Safe D
8. Raja Krishnamoorthi D (Clinton 58%) Safe D
9. Jan Schakowsky D (Clinton 69%) Safe D
10. Brad Schneider D (Clinton 61%) Safe D
11. Bill Foster D (Clinton 58%) Safe D
12. Mike Bost R (Trump 54%) Leans R
13. Rodney Davis R (Trump 49%) Leans R
14. Randy Hultgren R (Trump 48%) Tossup (R)
15. John Shimkus R (Trump 70%) Safe R
16. Adam Kinzinger R (Trump 55%) Safe R
17. Cheri Bustos D (Trump 47%) Safe D
18. Darin LaHood R (Trump 60%) Safe R

IL current: 11 D, 7 R
IL predicted: 11 D, 7 R

Current total: 81 D, 69 R
Predicted:
88 D (68 Safe, 12 Likely, 4 Leans, 4 Tossup)
62 R (36 Safe, 11 Likely, 8 Leans, 7 Tossup)
___________________________________________________________________________

Indiana

1. Peter Visclosky D (Clinton 53%) Safe D
2. Jackie Walorski R (Trump 58%) Likely R
3. Jim Banks R (Trump 64%) Safe R
4. Open (Todd Rokita R) (Trump 64%) Safe R
5. Susan Brooks R (Trump 52%) Safe R
6. Open (Luke Messer R) (Trump 67%) Safe R
7. Andre Carson D (Clinton 58%) Safe D
8. Larry Bucshon R (Trump 64%) Safe R
9. Trey Hollingsworth R (Trump 60%) Likely R

IN current: 2 D, 7 R
IN predicted: 2 D, 7 R

Current total: 83 D, 76 R
Predicted:
90 D (70 Safe, 12 Likely, 4 Leans, 4 Tossup)
69 R (41 Safe, 13 Likely, 8 Leans, 7 Tossup)
___________________________________________________________________________

Iowa

1. Rod Blum R (Trump 48%) Leans D
2. Dave Loebsack D (Trump 49%) Likely D
3. David Young R (Trump 48%) Tossup (D)
4. Steve King R (Trump 60%) Likely R

IA current: 1 D, 3 R
IA predicted: 3 D, 1 R

Current total: 84 D, 79 R
Predicted:
93 D (70 Safe, 13 Likely, 5 Leans, 5 Tossup)
70 R (41 Safe, 14 Likely, 8 Leans, 7 Tossup)

Monday, October 22, 2018

U.S. House Predictions- Georgia- Idaho

15 Days Until Election Day


Georgia

1. Buddy Carter R (Trump 56%) Safe R
2. Sanford Bishop D (Clinton 55%) Safe D
3. Drew Ferguson R (Trump 64%) Safe R
4. Hank Johnson D (Clinton 75%) Safe D
5. John Lewis D (Clinton 85%) Safe D
6. Karen Handel R (Trump 48%) Leans R
7. Rob Woodall R (Trump 51%) Likely R
8. Austin Scott R (Trump 63%) Safe R
9. Doug Collins R (Trump 77%) Safe R
10. Jody Hice R (Trump 61%) Safe R
11. Barry Loudermilk R (Trump 60%) Safe R
12. Rick Allen R (Trump 57%) Safe R
13. David Scott D (Clinton 71%) Safe D
14. Tom Graves R (Trump 75%) Safe R

GA current: 4 D, 10 R
GA predicted: 4 D, 10 R

Current total: 68 D, 60 R
Predicted:
75 D (55 Safe, 12 Likely, 4 Leans, 4 Tossup)
53 R (32 Safe, 10 Likely, 6 Leans, 5 Tossup)
_________________________________________________________________________-

Hawai'i

1. Open (Colleen Hanabusa D) (Clinton 63%) Safe D
2. Tulsi Gabbard D (Clinton 61%) Safe D

HI current: 2 D, 0 R
HI predicted: 2 D, 0 R

Current total: 70 D, 60 R
Predicted:
77 D (57 Safe, 12 Likely, 4 Leans, 4 Tossup)
53 R (32 Safe, 10 Likely, 6 Leans, 5 Tossup)
_______________________________________________________________________

Idaho

1. Open (Raul Labrador R) (Trump 64%) Likely R
2. Mike Simpson R (Trump 54%) Safe R

ID current: 0 D, 2 R
ID predicted: 0 D, 2 R

Current total: 70 D, 62 R
Predicted:
77 D (57 Safe, 12 Likely, 4 Leans, 4 Tossup)
55 R (33 Safe, 11 Likely, 6 Leans, 5 Tossup)

Sunday, October 21, 2018

U.S. House Predictions- Florida

16 Days Until Election Day

Florida

1. Matt Gaetz R (Trump 67%) Safe R
2. Neal Dunn R (Trump 66%) Safe R
3. Ted Yoho R (Trump 56%) Safe R
4. John Rutherford R (Trump 62%) Safe R
5. Al Lawson D (Clinton 61%) Safe D
6. Vacant (Ron DeSantis R) (Trump 56%) Leans R
7. Stephanie Murphy D (Clinton 51%) Leans D
8. Bill Posey R (Trump 58%) Safe R
9. Darren Soto D (Clinton 54%) Safe D
10. Val Demings D (Clinton 61%) Safe D
11. Dan Webster R (Trump 64%) Safe R
12. Gus Bilirakis R (Trump 57%) Safe R
13. Charlie Crist D (Clinton 49%) Safe D
14. Kathy Castor D  (Clinton 57%) Safe D
15. Open (Dennis Ross R) (Trump 53%) Tossup (R)
16. Vern Buchanan R (Trump 53%) Likely R
17. Open (Tom Rooney R) (Trump 62%) Safe R
18. Brian Mast R (Trump 53%) Leans R
19. Francis Rooney R (Trump 59%) Likely R
20. Alcee Hastings D (Clinton 80%) Safe D
21. Lois Frankel D (Clinton 58%) Safe D
22. Ted Deutch D (Clinton 56%) Safe D
23. Debbie Wasserman Schultz D (Clinton 62%) Likely D
24. Frederica Wilson D (Clinton 82%) Safe D
25. Mario Diaz-Balart R (Trump 49%) Likely R
26. Carlos Curbelo R  (Clinton 56%) Tossup (R)
27. Open (Ileana Ros-Lehtinen R) (Clinton 58%) Tossup (R)

FL current: 11 D, 16 R
FL predicted 11 D, 16 R

Current total: 64 D, 50 R
Predicted:
71 D (51 Safe, 12 Likely, 4 Leans, 4 Tossup)
43 R (24 Safe, 9 Likely, 5 Leans, 5 Tossup)

Saturday, October 20, 2018

U.S. House Predictions-Colorado- Delaware

17 Days Until Election Day

Colorado

1. Diana DeGette D (Clinton 69%) Safe D
2. Open (Jared Polis D) (Clinton 56%) Safe D
3. Scott Tipton R (Trump 52%) Likely R
4. Ken Buck R (Trump 57%) Safe R
5. Doug Lamborn R (Trump 57%) Safe R
6. Mike Coffman R (Clinton 50%) Leans D
7. Ed Perlmutter D (Clinton 51%) Safe D

CO current: 3 D, 4 R
CO predicted: 4 D, 3 R

Current total: 47 D, 34 R
Predicted:
54 D (37 Safe, 10 Likely, 3 Leans, 4 Tossup)
27 R (16 Safe, 6 Likely, 3 Leans, 2 Tossup)
__________________________________________________________________________

Connecticut

1. John Larson D (Clinton 59%) Safe D
2. Joe Courtney D (Clinton 49%) Safe D
3. Rosa DeLauro D (Clinton 56%) Safe D
4. Jim Himes D (Clinton 60%) Safe D
5. Open (Elizabeth Esty D) (Clinton 50%) Likely D

CT current: 5 D,  0 R
CT predicted: 5 D, 0 R

Current total: 52 D, 34 R
Predicted:
59 D (41 Safe, 11 Likely, 3 Leans, 4 Tossup)
27 R (16 Safe, 6 Likely, 3 Leans, 2 Tossup)
______________________________________________________________________

Delaware

1. Lisa Blunt Rochester D (Clinton 53%) Safe D

DE current: 1 D, 0 R
DE predicted: 1 D, 0 R

Current total: 53 D, 34 R
Predicted:
60 D (42 Safe, 11 Likely, 3 Leans, 4 Tossup)
27 R (16 Safe, 6 Likely, 3 Leans, 2 Tossup)

Friday, October 19, 2018

U.S. House Predictions- California

18 Days Until Election Day

California

1. Doug LaMalfa R (Trump 56%) Likely R
2. Jared Huffman D (Clinton 68%) Safe D
3. John Garamendi D (Clinton 52%) Likely D
4. Tom McClintock R (Trump 53%) Leans R
5. Mike Thompson D (Clinton 68%) Safe D
6. Doris Matsui D (Clinton 68%) Safe D/Safe Matsui
7. Ami Bera D (Clinton 52%) Likely D
8. Paul Cook R (Trump 54%) Safe R/Likely Cook
9. Jerry McNerney D (Clinton 56%) Likely D
10. Jeff Denham R (Clinton 48%) Tossup (D)
11. Mark DeSaulnier D (Clinton 71%) Safe D
12. Nancy Pelosi D (Clinton 86%) Safe D
13. Barbara Lee D (Clinton 87%) Safe D
14. Jackie Speier D (Clinton 76%) Safe D
15. Eric Swalwell D (Clinton 69%) Safe D
16. Jim Costa D (Clinton 57%) Likely D
17. Ro Khanna D (Clinton 73%) Safe D
18. Anna Eshoo D (Clinton 73%) Safe D
19. Zoe Lofgren D (Clinton 72%) Safe D
20. Jimmy Panetta D (Clinton 70%) Safe D
21. David Valadao R (Clinton 55%) Likely R
22. Devin Nunes R (Trump 52%) Leans R
23. Kevin McCarthy R (Trump 58%) Safe R
24. Salud Carbajal D (Clinton 56%) Likely D
25. Steve Knight R (Clinton 50%) Tossup (D)
26. Julia Brownley D (Clinton 57%) Safe D
27. Judy Chu D (Clinton 66%) Safe D/Safe Chu
28. Adam Schiff D (Clinton 72%) Safe D
29. Tony Cardenas D (Clinton 78%) Safe D
30. Brad Sherman D (Clinton 69%) Safe D
31. Pete Aguilar D (Clinton 57%) Likely D
32. Grace Napolitano D (Clinton 66%) Safe D
33. Ted Lieu D (Clinton 68%) Safe D
34. Jimmy Gomez D (Clinton 83%) Safe D
35. Norma Torres D (Clinton 67%) Safe D
36. Raul Ruiz D (Clinton 52%) Likely D
37. Karen Bass D (Clinton 85%) Safe D
38. Linda Sanchez D (Clinton 67%) Safe D
39. Open (Ed Royce R) (Clinton 51%) Tossup (R)
40. Lucille Roybal-Allard D (Clinton 82%) Safe D
41. Mark Takano D (Clinton 61%) Safe D
42. Ken Calvert R (Trump 53%) Safe R
43. Maxine Waters D (Clinton 78%) Safe D
44. Nanette Barragan D (Clinton 83%) Safe D/Safe Barragan
45. Mimi Walters R (Clinton 49%) Tossup (D)
46. Lou Correa D (Clinton 66%) Safe D
47. Alan Lowenthal D (Clinton 62%) Safe D
48. Dana Rohrabacher R (Clinton 48%) Tossup (D)
49. Open (Darrell Issa R) (Clinton 50%) Leans D
50. Duncan D. Hunter R (Trump 54%) Tossup (R)
51. Juan Vargas D (Clinton 71%) Safe D
52. Scott Peters D (Clinton 57%) Likely D
53. Susan Davis D (Clinton 64%) Safe D

CA current: 39 D, 14 R
CA predicted: 44 D, 9 R

Current total:44 D, 30 R
Predicted:
50 D (34 Safe, 10 Likely, 2 Leans, 4 Tossup)
24 R (14 Safe, 5 Likely, 3 Leans, 2 Tossup)

Thursday, October 18, 2018

U.S. House Predictions- Alabama- Arkansas

19 Days Until Election Day

Alabama

1. Bradley Byrne R (Trump 63%) Safe R
2. Martha Roby R (Trump 64%) Safe R
3. Mike Rogers R (Trump 65%) Safe R
4. Robert Aderholt R (Trump 80%) Safe R
5. Mo Brooks R (Trump 64%) Safe R
6. Gary Palmer R (Trump 70%) Safe R
7. Terri Sewell D (Clinton 69%) Safe D

AL current: 1 D, 6 R
AL predicted: 1 D, 6 R

Current total: 1 D, 6 R
Predicted:
1 D (1 Safe)
6 R (6 Safe)
______________________________________________________________________________

Alaska

 1. Don Young R (Trump 51%) Leans R

AK current: 0 D, 1 R
AK predicted: 0 D, 1 R

Current total: 1 D, 7 R
Predicted:
1 D (1 Safe)
7 R (6 Safe, 1 Leans)
___________________________________________________________________________

Arizona

1. Tom O'Halleran D (Trump 47%) Leans D
2. Open (Martha McSally R) (Clinton 49%) Likely D
3. Raul Grijalva D (Clinton 62%) Safe D
4. Paul Gosar R (Trump 67%) Safe R
5. Andy Biggs R (Trump 56%) Safe R
6. David Schweikert R (Trump 52%) Likely R
7. Ruben Gallego D (Clinton 71%) Safe D
8. Debbie Lesko R (Trump 57%) Likely R
9. Open (Krysten Sinema D) (Clinton 54%) Likely D

AZ current: 4 D, 5 R
AZ predicted: 5 D, 4 R

Current total: 5 D, 12 R
Predicted:
6 D (3 Safe, 2 Likely, 1 Leans)
11 R (8 Safe, 2 Likely, 1 Leans)
__________________________________________________________________________

Arkansas

1. Rick Crawford R (Trump 65%) Safe R
2. French Hill R (Trump 52%) Likely R
3. Steve Womack R (Trump 62%) Safe R
4. Bruce Westerman R (Trump 64%) Safe R

AR current: 0 D, 4 R
AR predicted: 0 D, 4 R

Current total: 5 D, 16 R
Predicted:
6 D (3 Safe, 2 Likely, 1 Leans)
15 R (11 Safe, 3 Likely, 1 Leans)

Wednesday, October 17, 2018

NFL Week 6 Results and Week 7 Games

20 Days Until Election Day

Week 6

NOT PREDICTIONS

1. Eagles (2-3) at Giants (1-4) L 1
2. Buccaneers (2-2) at Falcons (1-4) W 1
3. Panthers (3-1) at Redskins (2-2) W 2
4. Seahawks (2-3) vs. Raiders (1-4) in London L 2
5. Colts (1-4) at Jets (2-3) L 3
6. Cardinals (1-4) at Vikings (2-2-1) L 4
7. Steelers (2-2-1) at Bengals (4-1) L 5
8. Chargers (3-2) at Browns (2-2-1) L 6
9. Bills (2-3) at Texans (2-3) L 7
10. Bears (3-1) at Dolphins (3-2) L 8
11. Rams (5-0) at Broncos (2-3) L 9
12. Ravens (3-2) at Titans (3-2) L 10
13. Jaguars (3-2) at Cowboys (2-3) L 11
14. Chiefs (5-0) at Patriots (3-2) L 12
15. 49ers (1-4) at Packers (2-2-1) L 13

Week 6 Results: 2-13 (13%)
Overall Results: 48-43 (53%)
__________________________________________________________________________________

Week 7

NOT PREDICTIONS

1. Broncos (2-4) at Cardinals (1-5)
2. Titans (3-3) vs Chargers (4-2) in London
3. Texans (3-3) at Jaguars (3-3)
4. Panthers (3-2) at Eagles (3-3)
5. Vikings (3-2-1) at Jets (3-3)
6. Patriots (4-2) at Bears (3-2)
7. Bills (2-4) at Colts (1-5)
8. Browns (2-3-1) at Buccaneers (2-3)
9. Lions (2-3) at Dolphins (4-2)
10. Saints (4-1) at Ravens (4-2)
11. Cowboys (3-3) at Redskins (3-2)
12. Rams (6-0) at 49ers (1-5)
13. Bengals (4-2) at Chiefs (5-1)
14. Giants (1-5) at Falcons (2-4)

Tuesday, October 16, 2018

2018 U.S. Senate Predictions- Updated

21 Days Until Election Day

Current U.S. Senate: 49 D, 51 R


Arizona- Tossup (R)
California- Safe D/Leans Feinstein- change from Safe D/Likely Feinstein
Connecticut- Safe D
Delaware- Safe D - change from Likely D
Florida- Tossup (D)
Hawai'i- Safe D
Indiana- Tossup (R)
Maine- Safe D/Safe King
Maryland- Safe D
Massachusetts- Safe D
Michigan- Likely D
Minnesota (A)- Safe D
Minnesota (B)- Likely D- change from Leans D
Mississippi (A)- Safe R
Mississippi (B)- Likely R
Missouri- Tossup (R)
Montana- Tossup (D)
Nevada- Tossup (R)- change from Tossup (D)
New Jersey- Leans D
New Mexico- Safe D- change from Likely D
New York- Safe D
North Dakota- Leans R- change from Tossup (R)
Ohio- Likely D
Pennsylvania- Likely D
Rhode Island- Safe D
Tennessee- Leans R- change from Tossup (R)
Texas- Leans R
Utah- Safe R
Vermont- Safe D
Virginia- Safe D
Washington- Safe D
West Virginia- Leans D
Wisconsin- Likely D
Wyoming- Safe R


Predictions:

46 D (23 holdovers, 15 Safe, 3 Likely, 3 Leans, 2 Tossup)
54 R (42 holdovers, 4 Safe, 1 Likely, 3 Leans, 4 Tossup)

Republican net gain of 3
 

Monday, October 15, 2018

2018 Gubernatorial Predictions- Updated

22 Days Until Election Day

All current Governors: 16 D, 1 I, 33 R 

Alabama- Safe R
Alaska- Likely R - change from Tossup (R)
Arizona- Likely R- change from Leans R
Arkansas- Safe R
California- Safe D
Colorado- Leans D- change from Tossup (D)
Connecticut- Likely D- change from Tossup (D)
Florida- Tossup (D)- change from Leans D
Georgia- Tossup (R)- change from Leans R
Hawai'i- Safe D
Idaho- Likely R
Illinois- Likely D
Iowa- Tossup (R)- change from Leans R
Kansas- Tossup (D)
Maine- Leans D
Maryland- Safe R- change from Likely R
Massachusetts- Safe R- change from Likely R
Michigan- Leans D
Minnesota- Likely D- change from Leans D
Nebraska- Likely R
Nevada- Tossup (R)
New Hampshire- Likely R
New Mexico- Likely D- change from Leans D
New York- Safe D- change from Likely D
Ohio- Tossup (R)- change from Leans R
Oklahoma- Leans R
Oregon- Tossup (D)- change from Leans D
Pennsylvania- Likely D
Rhode Island- Likely D- change from Leans D
South Carolina- Likely R
South Dakota- Leans R
Tennessee- Likely R
Texas- Safe R- change from Likely R
Vermont- Likely R
Wisconsin- Leans D
Wyoming- Safe R


Predictions:
23 D (7 holdovers, 3 Safe, 6 Likely, 4 Leans, 3 Tossup)
27 R (7 holdovers, 6 Safe, 8 Likely, 2 Leans, 4 Tossup)

Democrat net gain of 7
Republican net loss of 6

Sunday, October 14, 2018

Wyoming U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

23 Days Until Election Day

Wyoming U.S. Senate

Status: Republican Incumbent
2016 Presidential Result: Red State (West)

Outlook: Safe Republican

The last race to be talked about will not be the most suspenseful. Wyoming is about as Republican as it gets on the federal level and incumbent GOP Senator John Barrasso is heavily favored to win a third full term. In 2007, he was appointed to the Senate to fill a Republican vacancy by the state's then Democrat Governor. Before he won office to the state legislature, Barrasso, a physician and media figure in the state, had run unsuccessfully for the party's Senate nomination in 1996, when he was considered a fairly moderate Republican.

Now, while Barrasso's voting record is solidly conservative, some in the party have still wanted to replace him. Former White House aide Steve Bannon seemed to want to oust the incumbent, with the assumption of course that the general election in Wyoming would be decided in the primary itself. Wealthy businessman and political donor Foster Freiss ran for Governor unsuccessfully instead and businessman Erik Prince, the former Navy SEAL who once ran the controversial para-military company Blackwater declined to run as well.

In the August primary, Barrasso faced several opponents and won, albeit with just 63 percent. His strongest challenge came from businessman Dave Dodson, who finished with 28 percent. Dodson was well-financed and ran as an outsider, calling for term-limits and criticizing the incumbent for refusing to debate.

The sole Democrat in the race was businessman and one-time local school board member Gary Trauner. He was known within the party for being the nominee for the statewide Congressional district in 2006 and 2008. He ran reasonably competitive races those years, especially the former

This cycle though, there does not seem to be any evidence that Barrasso is vulnerable.

U.S. Senate races predicted:
24 D (12 Safe, 6 Likely, 3 Leans, 3 Tossup)
11 R (4 Safe, 1 Likely, 1 Leans, 5 Tossup)

Total with predictions thus far, updates to come this week:
47 D (23 holdovers, 12 Safe, 6 Likely, 3 Leans, 3 Tossup)
53 R (42 holdovers, 4 Safe, 1 Likely, 1 Leans, 5 Tossup)

Saturday, October 13, 2018

Wyoming Governor- Race of the Day

24 Days Until Election Day

Wyoming Governor

Status: Republican Open
2016 Presidential Result: Red State (West)

Status: Safe Republican

At last, we have come to the end of the alphabet in terms of the 50 states, as well as the least populated among them. Wyoming also may lay claim to the title of most Republican in the Union as well. While it did not garner much attention, Republicans in August voted to nominate a candidate to replace the GOP's popular term-limited Matt Mead, over the choice preferred via Twitter by Donald Trump.

As the 2018 cycle began, Republican Secretary of State Ed Murray was considered the front-runner to replace Governor Mead. Accusations from the 1980s surfaced though of sexual assault in the 1980s. He denied the charges but would later announce he would not seek the Governorship or any office. Shortly thereafter, he resigned his state post altogether. For a good deal of time, attorney Harriet Hageman appeared to be the only credible Republican candidate for Governor, but it was expected that others would eventually enter the race.

Eventually five candidates would join Hageman in the field, while a seventh hopeful, a veterinarian and perennial failed candidate decided to run instead with the Constitution Party. State Treasurer Mark Gordon was looked on as the favorite. He had been appointed to the post by Mead but elected in his own right in 2014. Six years earlier, he was unsuccessful in a primary bid for the state's one Congressional district.

The race was shaken up though by the announcement of 78 year old first time candidate Foster Friess The businessman and philanthropist had over the past several years become one of the most prominent donors nationally in the Republican Party, often favoring conservative alternatives to party establishment figures. As the top benefactor to Rick Santorum in the 2012 primaries, he made headlines for politically incorrect and insensitive comments. He turned down entreaties by then White House official Steve Bannon to challenge Wyoming's GOP U.S. Senator in a primary, but did run for the open Governorship. Shortly before the primary. Donald Trump endorsed him and most thought that would deal the deal for Friess who due to his personal spending on the race had been locked in a tight battle in the polls with Gordon.

However, on Primary Day, the Wyoming establishment who had largely endorsed Gordon prevailed over Trump and many national conservative figures who lined up with Friess. In a divided field, Gordon beat Friess 33-25, with Hageman taking 21 percent and businessman Sam Galeotos finishing fourth with 12 percent. He had seen much of his support evaporate when Friess entered the race, but his presence in the contest may have prevented Friess from being nominated.

Many Republicans breathed a bit of a sigh of relief with the thought that Friess might have been a polarizing candidate who could have possibly put the Governorship at risk. After all, a Democrat had served for eight years before Mead was elected. The winner of the Democrats' primary with about two-thirds of the vote was Mary Throne, a State Representative who had served as Minority Leader. Her only major opponent was seemingly a pro-marijuana activist who had run before, but he finished behind Michael Allen Green, a little known businessman, beyond his having been the state's Congressional nominee back in 2000. Green finished in second place with 12 percent.

There do not seem to be any recent polls on this race and often all sorts of states, will look beyond national party preferences to consider another party for the Governorship, but there does not seem to be anything to suggest that with Wyoming being as Republican as it has been in recent years, that Gordon should not win easily.

2018 Gubernatorial Predictions:

16 D  (2 Safe, 3 Likely, 8 Leans, 3 Tossup) 
20 R  (3 Safe, 9 Likely, 6 Leans, 2 Tossup)

Predicted total- with updates to come next week:

23 D (7 holdovers, 2 Safe, 3 Likely, 8 Leans, 3 Tossup)
27 R (7 holdovers, 3 Safe, 9 Likely, 6 Leans, 2 Tossup)

Friday, October 12, 2018

Wisconsin U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

25 Days Until Election Day

Wisconsin U.S. Senate

Status: Democrat Incumbent
2016 Presidential Result: Red State (Midwest)

Outlook: Likely Democrat

Wisconsin has been a profoundly complex state politically recently. In 2016, Donald Trump carried the state that nobody expected him too and freshman GOP Senator Ron Johnson won a reelection that nobody expected him to, in a rematch against the former Senator, that few had expected him to ever beat.

The other U.S. Senate seat though belongs to Tammy Baldwin, whom in a high-profile 2012 race defeated a legendary politician in the state, whom had been elected four times as Governor, but proved past his vote-getting prime, as she moved up from the House to Senate. This year, Baldwin is seeking reelection and while Republicans talked a good game about challenging her seriously, especially after what happened in 2016, she has been a favorite to win another term throughout.

All biographical looks at Senator Baldwin have to of course acknowledge her as a somewhat historical political figure. She is the first openly gay person ever elected to the Senate. Fourteen years earlier, she was the first openly gay person ever elected to the U.S. House as a non-incumbent, and the first openly gay woman in general. She has been around Capitol Hill long enough to have it not be as big of a deal anymore of course as laws and societal mores on the issue have also shifted. She has amassed a thoroughly liberal voting record, but unlike other female Senators from swing states, is not mentioned as a Presidential aspirant.

National political Republicans would have perhaps liked current GOP Governor Scott Walker to have challenged Baldwin in 2016, but he embarked on a perilous run for a third term instead. Congressman and MTV Real World alum Sean Duffy also declined to make this race, disappointing some, who are perhaps not as aware of his recent penchant for saying controversial things. There was also talk about David Clarke, the then Milwaukee County Sheriff, (who held the position as an elected Democrat), running as a Republican. However, the tough-talking publicity seeking African-American Trump surrogate, who was becoming a lightning rod for controversy resigned his office somewhat abruptly and that has seemed to end any talk of him as a statewide contender.

Out of the five candidates in the August primary, two Republicans competed most seriously for the nomination, and they came from different backgrounds and had different sorts of supporters. Many national conservative leaders were impressed with the candidacy of businessman Kevin Nicholson, who played up his service as a decorated Marine combat veteran. The 39 year old Nicholson ran as a staunch conservative and Trump backer, but he used to be a Democrat (not unlike Trump.) In fact, during the Presidential election year of 2000, he was the President of the College Democrats of America and gave a speech at the Los Angeles convention.

Nicholson has said that as the years went on, after 9/11, and upon becoming more committed to his faith, he moved to the right. All of that seems believable, but his parents apparently had a hard time with it. They made headlines by donating the maximum amount to Baldwin's reelection campaign. The GOP candidate has said that his parents remain activist Democrats and pretty much hinted at a pretty severe family strain over all sorts of matters.

At the same time, Nicholson had to face a primary opponent who was questioning his political history and commitment to the GOP. Sixty-year old Leah Vukmir is the daughter of Greek immigrants and a registered nurse, who has served in the Wisconsin Legislature since late 2002, when she was elected to succeed Scott Walker in her suburban Milwaukee district. Currently, she is the Assistant Senate Majority Leader in the capital of Madison.

While Nicholson had Tea Party figures and right-wing media celebrities touting his biography and chances against Baldwin, most of the Wisconsin political establishment was on board with Vukmir. This was not because she was seen as either considerably more or less conservative, but because she had risen through the ranks with them, unlike her opponent. Either formally or informally, she had the backing of Governor Walker, former RNC Chair and short-term Trump Chief of Staff Reince Priebus, and U.S. House Speaker Paul Ryan. In May, the state party convention voted to endorse her with 73 percent.

While she stated her campaign pegged as the underdog, who would have a hard time keeping up financially with Nicholson, she used the highly respected Wisconsin GOP party organization apparatus to her advantage. Voters came to have doubts about Nicholson being overly ambitious and perhaps not quite sold on his party switch. (In some ways, Nicholson's profile mirrored that of Eric Greitens, a young former Democrat and military veteran who won as an outsider for Missouri Governor and then wound up being bounced, largely by his own party, due to scandal early in his term.) In any event, Vukmir won the primary 49-43. There will perhaps be other opportunities in the state for Nicholson to run for one day, but this seemed to be Vukmir's one chance at a statewide run.

Vukmir has run a hard charging campaign against Baldwin on ideological grounds. This race is not really getting all that much national attention though. In "America's Dairyland, the Brewers may also be surpassing politics in the headlines. The incumbent has led in all polls, and most of them at a margin slightly passed 50 percent and with a lead in the low double digits. If the polls are wrong (as they were to some extent for Trump and Ron Johnson both two years ago) maybe this race is closer than anyone is anticipating, but all signs seem to point for a second  Senate term for Baldwin.

U.S. Senate races predicted thus far: 
24 D (12 Safe, 6 Likely, 3 Leans, 3 Tossup)
10 R (3 Safe, 1 Likely, 1 Leans, 5 Tossup)

Total with predictions thus far:
47 D (23 holdovers, 12 Safe, 6 Likely, 3 Leans, 3 Tossup)
52 R (42 holdovers, 3 Safe, 1 Likely, 1 Leans, 5 Tossup)

Thursday, October 11, 2018

Wisconsin Governor- Race of the Day

26 Days Until Election Day

Wisconsin Governor

Status: Republican Incumbent
2016 Presidential Result: Red State (Midwest)

Outlook: Leans Democrat


With so much on the line this year, especially in Senate elections, this race for Governor is not getting the sort of attention it might have, considering the past national implications involving the career of Republican Governor Scott Walker.

The one-time Milwaukee County Executive had wanted to be Governor of Wisconsin for a long time. In 2006, he was defeated in the GOP primary by a Congressman, but four years later, in a strong year for Republicans, Walker defeated the then Mayor of Milwaukee (and a former Congressman) to capture the Governorship.

Walker got off to a fast and ambitious start, implementing various conservative initiatives that weakened the power of public employee unions. Democrats and the state and from around the nation converged on Madison (already a heavily liberal city) to protest Walker and his legislative Republican allies. The parties battled it out in various recall elections and Democrats were successful in getting enough signatures to make the Governor himself face a recall election. The party and union activists of all sorts were optimistic they could make an example of Walker and drive him from office, with the candidate he defeated in 2010 taking over after the recall election. However, in June of 2012, Walker survived, with an even slightly larger margin than his initial election to become the first Governor in American history to survive a recall. Democrats had gambled and lost, although the GOP was unable to capitalize in other races in the fall of that year. Walker was strengthened though, and proved his political mettle by winning a bitter reelection battle in 2014, once again scoring in the 52-53 percent range.

Having been elected now three times as Governor, Walker jumped into the 2016 Presidential sweepstakes and many saw him as the kind of rising political star with a narrative of accomplishment that could eventually propel him to the nomination. On the national scene though, Walker came across as tentative and a bit pandering. Like many others in the field, the surprise emergence of Donald Trump hurt him, and an attempt to tangle on a debate stage with the new front-runner did not go as smoothly as Walker might have hoped. With his fundraising drying up, the Governor suspended his Presidential campaign in September of 2015. In a terse announcement, he indicated the necessity of the party to act in a way that avoided a Trump nomination. Shortly before the Wisconsin primary, Walker endorsed Ted Cruz, who in a big break easily won the contest, but Trump prevailed to take the nomination. Walker put aside his reservations and offered his support to the new nominee. In November, with the Hillary Clinton campaign basically taking the Badger State for granted, Trump defied many state polls and narrowly took the state's Electoral Votes, becoming the first Republican to do so since 1984.

With 2018 approaching, and without an offer of an Administration job, Walker was left with the options of either walking away from politics, running an uphill race against an incumbent Democrat Senator, or seeking a third term (which might feel like a fourth term to Governors, and which would also be a fifth campaign for the job) as Governor. Republican Governor Tommy Thompson had won four terms as Governor between 1986 and 1998, but most states have term-limits for Governor now and voters are seemingly more in the mood for a change after someone serves eight years.

Democrats looked to find a top-tier candidate to take on Walker, and for a time, it looked like they would be unable to find one. Still, a slew of lesser known candidates ran ahead of the August primary. With so many on the ballot, some had withdrawn and had thrown their support to other candidates. There was some late consolidation in the party on behalf of the one statewide elected official in the candidate in Tony Evers, who serves as State Superintendent of Public Instruction, which is technically a non-partisan post.

As the incumbent Republican took 92 percent on his side, Evers was an easy winner for Democrats with 42 percent. Well behind, with 16 percent was Mahlon Mitchell, the young African-American Firefighters Union head, who had been the 2012 party nominee for Lt. Governor. In third place with 13 percent was a young former State Representative named Kelda Roys, who ran as a more liberal attorney. Further back in the pack was a female State Senator and former Gubernatorial candidate and a male former state party chair, who both fell short of double digits. Clearly, the primary voters wanted Walker and Evers.

The Democrats' primary for Lt. Governor was won by 31 year old former State  Representative  Mandela Barnes. The African-American candidate, who had lost a 2016 State Senate primary to an incumbent, is 35 years older than Tony Evers, who should not be confused with character of that name, who went by "Duke" and who used to manage Apollo Creed in the Rocky franchise. Running alongside Walker, for the fourth time, is incumbent Lt. Governor Rebecca Kleefisch. A former beauty pageant contestant and television news anchor, Kleefisch, who is married to a former State Assemblyman, and who has ties to the Evangelical community, won her first race, when she was Walker's Lt. Governor partner in 2010, and she also survived in the 2012 recount.

There is nothing that liberals would like to see more than Scott Walker finally give a concession speech. The polls in the race have for the most part shown him trailing Evers. It could just be that a third term is a lot to ask for these days or that Democrats in the state, which until recently at least had a reputation of being fairly liberal, are extra-motivated. Trump took the state in a surprise two years ago, even as many suburban Republicans resisted, but may be an anchor this time. Wisconsin relies on a lot of agricultural exports, as well as selling it's Harley-Davidson motorcycles, and those industries stand to lose a lot under Trump's pro-tariff executive actions and rhetoric.

There are some varying polls this week, but they tend not to look good for the Republican. It should be kept in mind though that among the 2016 battleground states, Wisconsin was the one (and perhaps the only real one) that wound up deviating from what polls were showing. One poll this week now has Walker up by one point over Evers, while another has the Democrat 10 points ahead.

 The truth is probably somewhere in between, but it is hard to not have the perception that Evers is ahead as the race heads down the home stretch. It is quite possible there will be a late surge to Walker, but the polls are not showing that as of yet. If Scott Walker does manage to somehow win this election and secure another term, he will have to be considered the ultimate political survivor.


Gubernatorial Races predicted thus far:

16 D  (2 Safe, 3 Likely, 8 Leans, 3 Tossup) 
19 R  (2 Safe, 9 Likely, 6 Leans, 2 Tossup)

Total with predictions thus far:

23 D (7 holdovers, 2 Safe, 3 Likely, 8 Leans, 3 Tossup)
26 R (7 holdovers, 2 Safe, 9 Likely, 6 Leans, 2 Tossup)