New York U.S. Senate- Race of the Day

 New York U.S. Senate

69 Days Until Election Day

Status: Democrat Incumbent

2020 Presidential Result: Blue State (East)

Outlook: Safe Democrat

In 2022, Republicans were disappointed by falling short of midterm expectations in many states. Two exceptions however were increasingly red Florida and presumably deep blue New York. It has still be several cycles since Republicans have won a statewide race in the Empire State and over 30 years since the last Senate victory. While the party might have been able to capitalize over local concerns regarding taxes and crime in state and local elections, to at least win some statewide moral victories, a victory for a federal contest during this Presidential cycle will be more difficult. This particular race will get virtually no attention. There will be many eyes on several competitive U.S. House races in the state, where freshmen Republicans will be trying to hold on in districts carried for President by Democrats.

Many people have likely forgotten that Senator Kirstin Gillibrand ran for President not long ago. Her 2020 campaign went absolutely nowhere in a crowded field and she was overshadowed by fellow female Democrat Senators Elizabeth Warren, Amy Klobuchar, and Kamala Harris. Gillibrand has had much better luck in Senate elections. Appointed in 2009 to fill the vacancy of Hillary Clinton, the new Senator easily won a 2010 special election and then two subsequent reelections with at least two-thirds of the vote against female Republican opponents. Since joining the Senate, Gillibrand has changed her tune politically on issues such as guns, since her one term in the U.S. House, where she represented a more conservative upstate district. There were some serious New York City complaints heard when Gillibrand was put in the Senate, including the fact that her lobbyist father had some ties to Republicans, but in the Senate, Gillibrand has very much been an urban progressive across the board. That was not enough to get her much notice in her long-shot Presidential bid.

The Senator did not face a primary challenger in June and is also running with the ballot designation of the Working Families Party. Any sort of open U.S. Senate seat in the future from New York will likely see a wide field full of ambitious political figures, but nobody wished to tangle with the well-funded Gillibrand this year. The Republicans also did not have a contested primary. Three candidates wound up being disqualified from the primary ballot including a very wealthy Jewish-American businessman,who was the closest thing to the kind of establishment Republican who might have the best chance of winning crossover votes.

The nominee of the Republican and Conservative Parties is Mike Sapraicone, a retired New York City Police Detective, who went on to run a consulting firm. Donald Trump endorsed Sapraicone for this office in his old home state, back when there was still a primary contest, and the local Republican organizations fell in line. This is despite the fact that the candidate donated money a couple of years ago to the reelection campaign of Attorney General Letitia James, who is not exactly a Trump favorite. Of course, it is worth remembering that Trump himself used to donate to all sorts of New York Democrats including Kirsten Gillibrand. Trump also donated to the campaign fund of Kamala Harris.

New Yorkers can expect Sapraicone to push the crime and migrant crisis issues, but compared to his opponent, he will have very little resources to make his case in this expensive political state. A Republican came closer than expected in the 2022 Gubernatorial election, but still fell six points short. This race will not wind up anywhere near as close.

U.S. Senate races predicted thus far:

14 D  (7 Safe, 3 Likely,  3 Leans, 1 Tossup)

 7 R   (3 Safe, 2 Likely, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup)

 

Total with predicted thus far:

42 Democrats (28 Holdover, 7 Safe, 3 Likely, 3 Leans, 1 Tossup)

45 Republicans (38 Holdover, 3 Safe, 2 Likely, 1 Leans, 1 Tossup)